11 replies to this topic

[Incublime24]

I'm doing research for my upcoming keeper league draft and I'm really struggling to rank players in the first couple of rounds. After the big three (Trout, Braun, Cabrera), there are about 20-25 players that could go anywhere in the first couple of rounds.

Just for fun, how do you think the first two rounds would play out in the first year of a keeper league? Let's keep it simple and go with 12 teams and as difficult as it might be, let's try to ignore the format. Just the best overall players.

(Moderators, please move this thread, if necessary.)

[DenisK]

Here's how I pre-ranked the first 60 players in a keeper league draft that I've got coming up.  I used the Keeper Experts website as a main source:

• 1. Ryan Braun
  
• 2. Miguel Cabrera
  
• 3. Bryce Harper
  
• 4. Justin Upton
  
• 5. Andrew McCutchen
  
• 6. Mike Trout
  
• 7. Joey Votto
  
• 8. Stephen Strasburg
  
• 9. Robinson Cano
  
• 10. Clayton Kershaw
  
• 11. Justin Verlander
  
• 12. Dustin Pedroia
  
• 13. Jose Reyes
  
• 14. Matt Kemp
  
• 15. Albert Pujols
  
• 16. David Price
  
• 17. Carlos Gonzalez
  
• 18. Ryan Zimmerman
  
• 19. Prince Fielder
  
• 20. Jay Bruce
  
• 21. Max Scherzer
  
• 22. Giancarlo Stanton
  
• 23. Cole Hamels
  
• 24. Felix Hernandez
  
• 25. Troy Tulowitzki
  
• 26. Josh Hamilton
  
• 27. Matt Cain
  
• 28. Jered Weaver
  
• 29. Starlin Castro
  
• 30. Jason Kipnis
  
• 31. Evan Longoria
  
• 32. David Wright
  
• 33. Matt Wieters
  
• 34. Buster Posey
  
• 35. Billy Butler
  
• 36. Madison Bumgarner
  
• 37. Cliff Lee
  
• 38. Eric Hosmer
  
• 39. Matt Moore
  
• 40. Manny Machado
  
• 41. Todd Frazier
  
• 42. Aroldis Chapman
  
• 43. Craig Kimbrel
  
• 44. Carlos Santana
  
• 45. Hanley Ramirez
  
• 46. Joe Mauer
  
• 47. Chris Sale
  
• 48. Yovani Gallardo
  
• 49. Jonathan Papelbon
  
• 50. Jesus Montero
  
• 51. Adam Jones
  
• 52. Aaron Hill
  
• 53. Zack Greinke
  
• 54. Adam Wainwright
  
• 55. B.J. Upton
  
• 56. Ian Desmond
  
• 57. Yoenis Cespedes
  
• 58. Yadier Molina
  
• 59. James Shields
  
• 60. Aramis Ramirez

[Ben Edelman]

 DenisK, on 18 February 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Here's how I pre-ranked the first 60 players in a keeper league draft that I've got coming up.  I used the Keeper Experts website as a main source:

• 3. Bryce Harper
  
• 6. Mike Trout

• 8. Stephen Strasburg
  
• 10. Clayton Kershaw

• 4. Justin Upton
  
• 14. Matt Kemp

• 18. Ryan Zimmerman
  
• 31. Evan Longoria

• 21. Max Scherzer
  
• 23. Cole Hamels

• 33. Matt Wieters
  
• 34. Buster Posey

• 53. Zack Greinke
  
• 54. Adam Wainwright

Thanks for the list -- I love views like this.  This looks decent, although I've called out a few pairs that stand out as odd to me:

3 vs 6: Trout is a superstar already, Harper may become a superstar.  You gotta take the player who has already made elite status.
8 vs 10: Same principle as above.  Strasburg has one great season.  Kershaw has four.  And Kershaw is only one year older.
4 vs 14: Really?  Upton is lousy outside of Chase Field.  He's younger than Kemp, but that's about all.  I would have Upton 15-20.
18 vs 31: Another surprise -- Longo has never had an OPS below .850.  Zimm has been over .850 only twice and is a year older
21 vs 23: I love Mad Max, but that takes some serious guts to put him over Hamels and Felix.
33 vs 34: I'll take the guy who already hits .300+/20 HR over the guy who might possibly hit .280/30 HR.  By a wide margin.
53 vs 54: Am I the only one who thinks Greinke will be a stud in LA?  A 1.20 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 looks awesome moving to that park.

Edited by Ben Edelman, 18 February 2013 - 10:09 PM.

[Incublime24]

 Ben Edelman, on 18 February 2013 - 10:08 PM, said:

 DenisK, on 18 February 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Here's how I pre-ranked the first 60 players in a keeper league draft that I've got coming up.  I used the Keeper Experts website as a main source:

• 3. Bryce Harper
  
• 6. Mike Trout

• 8. Stephen Strasburg
  
• 10. Clayton Kershaw

• 4. Justin Upton
  
• 14. Matt Kemp

• 18. Ryan Zimmerman
  
• 31. Evan Longoria

• 21. Max Scherzer
  
• 23. Cole Hamels

• 33. Matt Wieters
  
• 34. Buster Posey

• 53. Zack Greinke
  
• 54. Adam Wainwright

Thanks for the list -- I love views like this.  This looks decent, although I've called out a few pairs that stand out as odd to me:

3 vs 6: Trout is a superstar already, Harper may become a superstar.  You gotta take the player who has already made elite status.
8 vs 10: Same principle as above.  Strasburg has one great season.  Kershaw has four.  And Kershaw is only one year older.
4 vs 14: Really?  Upton is lousy outside of Chase Field.  He's younger than Kemp, but that's about all.  I would have Upton 15-20.
18 vs 31: Another surprise -- Longo has never had an OPS below .850.  Zimm has been over .850 only twice and is a year older
21 vs 23: I love Mad Max, but that takes some serious guts to put him over Hamels and Felix.
33 vs 34: I'll take the guy who already hits .300+/20 HR over the guy who might possibly hit .280/30 HR.  By a wide margin.
53 vs 54: Am I the only one who thinks Greinke will be a stud in LA?  A 1.20 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 looks awesome moving to that park.

I gotta agree with everything you said.

Since I value your input, how would you rank the following in a keeper league: Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki.

[supac720]

I wouldn't have Todd Frazier up there at 41 either. I'd much rather have almost everyone else below him on that list.

[Red Sox Nation]

 Ben Edelman, on 18 February 2013 - 10:08 PM, said:

 DenisK, on 18 February 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Here's how I pre-ranked the first 60 players in a keeper league draft that I've got coming up.  I used the Keeper Experts website as a main source:

• 3. Bryce Harper
  
• 6. Mike Trout

• 8. Stephen Strasburg
  
• 10. Clayton Kershaw

• 4. Justin Upton
  
• 14. Matt Kemp

• 18. Ryan Zimmerman
  
• 31. Evan Longoria

• 21. Max Scherzer
  
• 23. Cole Hamels

• 33. Matt Wieters
  
• 34. Buster Posey

• 53. Zack Greinke
  
• 54. Adam Wainwright

Thanks for the list -- I love views like this.  This looks decent, although I've called out a few pairs that stand out as odd to me:

3 vs 6: Trout is a superstar already, Harper may become a superstar.  You gotta take the player who has already made elite status.
8 vs 10: Same principle as above.  Strasburg has one great season.  Kershaw has four.  And Kershaw is only one year older.
4 vs 14: Really?  Upton is lousy outside of Chase Field.  He's younger than Kemp, but that's about all.  I would have Upton 15-20.
18 vs 31: Another surprise -- Longo has never had an OPS below .850.  Zimm has been over .850 only twice and is a year older
21 vs 23: I love Mad Max, but that takes some serious guts to put him over Hamels and Felix.
33 vs 34: I'll take the guy who already hits .300+/20 HR over the guy who might possibly hit .280/30 HR.  By a wide margin.
53 vs 54: Am I the only one who thinks Greinke will be a stud in LA?  A 1.20 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 looks awesome moving to that park.

I agree with all of them except 53 v 54. I think BOTH will be studs this year, so either or the other I wouldn't mind. I am actually targeting them as the 1-2 for my staff. Also 21 v 22 is silly. Scherzer, a pitcher, ahead of a young stud hitter (Stanton)? Um, no. Stanton may be in a terrible line up but you don't put a pitcher with a weird motion and a high chance of injury  over a guy with a chance of 500+ homers. I won't dissect that whole list though because any time someone makes a list there will be disagreement.

Personally, I look at keeper leagues with a 2-3 year window in mind. People overrate youth way too much in these formats. Who knows what we will be doing 4,5 years from now. I want to win now but still have enough youth that I can be highly competitive next year and the one after that. In a 3 year span it's already tough to predict injuries and trades and etc, so I strongly disagree when someone picks a guy 2 rounds too early because of youth. If you are debating two players than youth at that point can be a factor, but don't draft a Justin Upton so early based purely on upside and age.

Edited by Red Sox Nation, 18 February 2013 - 10:29 PM.

[parrothead]

 Red Sox Nation, on 18 February 2013 - 10:28 PM, said:

 Ben Edelman, on 18 February 2013 - 10:08 PM, said:

 DenisK, on 18 February 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Here's how I pre-ranked the first 60 players in a keeper league draft that I've got coming up.  I used the Keeper Experts website as a main source:

• 3. Bryce Harper
  
• 6. Mike Trout

• 8. Stephen Strasburg
  
• 10. Clayton Kershaw

• 4. Justin Upton
  
• 14. Matt Kemp

• 18. Ryan Zimmerman
  
• 31. Evan Longoria

• 21. Max Scherzer
  
• 23. Cole Hamels

• 33. Matt Wieters
  
• 34. Buster Posey

• 53. Zack Greinke
  
• 54. Adam Wainwright

Thanks for the list -- I love views like this.  This looks decent, although I've called out a few pairs that stand out as odd to me:

3 vs 6: Trout is a superstar already, Harper may become a superstar.  You gotta take the player who has already made elite status.
8 vs 10: Same principle as above.  Strasburg has one great season.  Kershaw has four.  And Kershaw is only one year older.
4 vs 14: Really?  Upton is lousy outside of Chase Field.  He's younger than Kemp, but that's about all.  I would have Upton 15-20.
18 vs 31: Another surprise -- Longo has never had an OPS below .850.  Zimm has been over .850 only twice and is a year older
21 vs 23: I love Mad Max, but that takes some serious guts to put him over Hamels and Felix.
33 vs 34: I'll take the guy who already hits .300+/20 HR over the guy who might possibly hit .280/30 HR.  By a wide margin.
53 vs 54: Am I the only one who thinks Greinke will be a stud in LA?  A 1.20 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 looks awesome moving to that park.

I agree with all of them except 53 v 54. I think BOTH will be studs this year, so either or the other I wouldn't mind. I am actually targeting them as the 1-2 for my staff. Also 21 v 22 is silly. Scherzer, a pitcher, ahead of a young stud hitter (Stanton)? Um, no. Stanton may be in a terrible line up but you don't put a pitcher with a weird motion and a high chance of injury  over a guy with a chance of 500+ homers. I won't dissect that whole list though because any time someone makes a list there will be disagreement.

Personally, I look at keeper leagues with a 2-3 year window in mind. People overrate youth way too much in these formats. Who knows what we will be doing 4,5 years from now. I want to win now but still have enough youth that I can be highly competitive next year and the one after that. In a 3 year span it's already tough to predict injuries and trades and etc, so I strongly disagree when someone picks a guy 2 rounds too early because of youth. If you are debating two players than youth at that point can be a factor, but don't draft a Justin Upton so early based purely on upside and age.

The problem people have sometimes with "keeper" leagues is that they sacrifice a chance to win a championship this year because they have visions of winning three championships in a row 3 to 5 years from now.  

I always wonder a few things too when it comes to these types of leagues:
1. How many of them are around 3 to 5 years down the line that so many owners are focused on when they set up these rankings?
2. In leagues where there is no value to keepers, no auction price, no contracts, no rounds, just keep guys forever, I often wonder how many times these leagues fold because teams are just stacked and people dont want to play.  To me, keeper leagues that work are either auction with a cap or draft rounds tied to where these guys were drafted and they arent forever and perhaps they get a little more expensive each year.

[JFS171]

 parrothead, on 19 February 2013 - 09:14 AM, said:

2. In leagues where there is no value to keepers, no auction price, no contracts, no rounds, just keep guys forever, I often wonder how many times these leagues fold because teams are just stacked and people dont want to play.  To me, keeper leagues that work are either auction with a cap or draft rounds tied to where these guys were drafted and they arent forever and perhaps they get a little more expensive each year.

Quite true.  I ran a 12-team, 6 keepers per team league exactly like you described.  No penalty for keeping a player, and you could keep the player in perpetuity.  By year 5, three to four teams were stacked, and the others had to REALLY get lucky to compete.  The league folded pretty soon after that since half the league had no interest in playing in a league where they realistically had no chance.

If I remember correctly, my team had Votto, Longoria, Tulowitzki, Braun, Kemp, and Kershaw as my six keepers by year 5.  It wasn't even fun anymore.

[parrothead]

 JFS171, on 19 February 2013 - 09:34 AM, said:

 parrothead, on 19 February 2013 - 09:14 AM, said:

2. In leagues where there is no value to keepers, no auction price, no contracts, no rounds, just keep guys forever, I often wonder how many times these leagues fold because teams are just stacked and people dont want to play.  To me, keeper leagues that work are either auction with a cap or draft rounds tied to where these guys were drafted and they arent forever and perhaps they get a little more expensive each year.

Quite true.  I ran a 12-team, 6 keepers per team league exactly like you described.  No penalty for keeping a player, and you could keep the player in perpetuity.  By year 5, three to four teams were stacked, and the others had to REALLY get lucky to compete.  The league folded pretty soon after that since half the league had no interest in playing in a league where they realistically had no chance.

If I remember correctly, my team had Votto, Longoria, Tulowitzki, Braun, Kemp, and Kershaw as my six keepers by year 5.  It wasn't even fun anymore.

Im all for keeper leagues, but I think you need keepers with like a 3-4 year limit and some cost to it.  Im also a big believer if you want a competitive league you should eliminate benches and free agency in keeper leagues, that way if a team has spots that are killing them, they have to sacrifice future assets to shore up those holes.

[Ben Edelman]

 Incublime24, on 18 February 2013 - 10:26 PM, said:

I gotta agree with everything you said.

Since I value your input, how would you rank the following in a keeper league: Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki.

Oof, those are tough.  I'll go by tiers:

Votto (the best of the bunch when healthy), Pujols and Cano in that order.
then
CarGo, Prince, Tulo.

It hurts to take Votto over Pujols, but there's a real chance that Pujols never hits .300 / 40 HR again.  I wouldn't be against taking Votto #3 overall, after Miggy and Braun.

[Incublime24]

 parrothead, on 19 February 2013 - 10:33 AM, said:

 JFS171, on 19 February 2013 - 09:34 AM, said:

 parrothead, on 19 February 2013 - 09:14 AM, said:

2. In leagues where there is no value to keepers, no auction price, no contracts, no rounds, just keep guys forever, I often wonder how many times these leagues fold because teams are just stacked and people dont want to play.  To me, keeper leagues that work are either auction with a cap or draft rounds tied to where these guys were drafted and they arent forever and perhaps they get a little more expensive each year.

Quite true.  I ran a 12-team, 6 keepers per team league exactly like you described.  No penalty for keeping a player, and you could keep the player in perpetuity.  By year 5, three to four teams were stacked, and the others had to REALLY get lucky to compete.  The league folded pretty soon after that since half the league had no interest in playing in a league where they realistically had no chance.

If I remember correctly, my team had Votto, Longoria, Tulowitzki, Braun, Kemp, and Kershaw as my six keepers by year 5.  It wasn't even fun anymore.

Im all for keeper leagues, but I think you need keepers with like a 3-4 year limit and some cost to it.  Im also a big believer if you want a competitive league you should eliminate benches and free agency in keeper leagues, that way if a team has spots that are killing them, they have to sacrifice future assets to shore up those holes.

In my keeper league, each manager gets 20 contract years to hand out to players. You can't extend active contracts (so that managers can't keep players forever) and there is a penalty if you drop a player during his contract. Also, whatever round you draft the guy in is the round you have to give up to keep him. I like it because there's a lot of strategy involved.

In my old keeper league, we all had to keep 6 guys every year...no more, no less. It got really boring when most people kept the same players year to year.

[2ndCitySox]

 Ben Edelman, on 18 February 2013 - 10:08 PM, said:

 DenisK, on 18 February 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Here's how I pre-ranked the first 60 players in a keeper league draft that I've got coming up.  I used the Keeper Experts website as a main source:

• 3. Bryce Harper
  
• 6. Mike Trout

• 8. Stephen Strasburg
  
• 10. Clayton Kershaw

• 4. Justin Upton
  
• 14. Matt Kemp

• 18. Ryan Zimmerman
  
• 31. Evan Longoria

• 21. Max Scherzer
  
• 23. Cole Hamels

• 33. Matt Wieters
  
• 34. Buster Posey

• 53. Zack Greinke
  
• 54. Adam Wainwright

Thanks for the list -- I love views like this.  This looks decent, although I've called out a few pairs that stand out as odd to me:

3 vs 6: Trout is a superstar already, Harper may become a superstar.  You gotta take the player who has already made elite status.
8 vs 10: Same principle as above.  Strasburg has one great season.  Kershaw has four.  And Kershaw is only one year older.
4 vs 14: Really?  Upton is lousy outside of Chase Field.  He's younger than Kemp, but that's about all.  I would have Upton 15-20.
18 vs 31: Another surprise -- Longo has never had an OPS below .850.  Zimm has been over .850 only twice and is a year older
21 vs 23: I love Mad Max, but that takes some serious guts to put him over Hamels and Felix.
33 vs 34: I'll take the guy who already hits .300+/20 HR over the guy who might possibly hit .280/30 HR.  By a wide margin.
53 vs 54: Am I the only one who thinks Greinke will be a stud in LA?  A 1.20 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 looks awesome moving to that park.

Yeah I don't get the love for Ryan Zimmerman at all. At least not to that level.