89 replies to this topic

[ballfan4141]

will be starting. can steal bases but how many. can he add some pop also. what kind of numbers do you expect for a full season with stolen bases, homeruns and average.

[Point Shaver]

.275/15HR/25-30SBs/75 RBI.

[klove42]

I think spring training will be big for him. There were some reports that Parra will still get at bats, and they also just added Campana for pinch hitting I assume. If he starts of poor in spring training I think Parra could claim that starting job.

[ballfan4141]

75 rbi. well then his runs should be more. going to have to see now with spring training.

[klove42]

ballfan4141, on 19 February 2013 - 01:13 PM, said:

75 rbi. well then his runs should be more. going to have to see now with spring training.

I really dont think he will get to 75 RBI even if he is given an everyday job. I also think 15 homers is high. He might lead off for them, so as an NL leadoff hitter 75 RBI is tough.

[ballfan4141]

yeah I figured more like 10 homeruns. less rbi.

[Ben Edelman]

Base: .270 / 8 / 45 / 80 runs / 25 SB
Upside: .295 / 12 / 65 / 100 runs / 40 SB
Downside: .240 / 3 / 20 / 30 runs / 12 SB (spends half the year in AAA with Parra playing CF)

[Nick Mitchell]

75 RBI?...isn't he slated to potentially bat lead-off for that team?

And 15 HR seems a little generous... in 613 AB last season (488 coming down at the very hitter-friendly Reno...), he amassed 9 HR total. And 2 came at the big league level with 85 AB. 0 at AA. The majority of his power (and all 46 doubles, vs. 1 in AA and 3 in the Majors...) came down at Reno. Extremely hitter friendly. 188 of his hits came down there.

I would temper expectations. Arizona's OF is always a fantasy mess (at least it seems like it), even with good fantasy players (i.e. Chris Young and Justin Upton in the past and how unpredictable they could become). With Upton gone, there has been the general noise that each OF (Kubel and Ross in left or right with Eaton in center) will get 400-500 AB, with Parra subbing in at all 3 positions from time to time. I would be afraid that Eaton starts slow and goes back to Reno if Parra is hitting and he is not, but one thing is clear: the D'Backs do want Eaton to embrace the role as a lead-off hitter.

I don't know what his MLB numbers (over 400-500 AB) will look like, but I think 15 HR/75 RBI is really pushing it. 25 SB is doable for sure, if he gets on base and sticks with the team, and he should. Campana coming in kind of bothers me, though. Eaton is obviously much more than Tony Campana- Campana is a 1-tool, 1-dimensional player if there ever was.
He's probably the 5th OF, behind Parra.
But if Eaton struggles and Parra steals starts in CF regularly, Campana could easily slide into that 4th OF/pinch runner role and Eaton could find himself back down at Reno...

What I do know about Adam Eaton (or this Adam Eaton... heh) is he seems to have a great eye and definitely has some speed to go with it. Reno HEAVILY inflated some of his numbers. He has nothing left to prove at the farm, either, and he's what... 24 or 25 now? I think going on 25?

My take on Adam Eaton is this: if he can start the year on a good note and not lose early ABs to a guy like Parra, I think he could have a nice year (if he does see 4-500 AB by season's end... but whether he does or doesn't obviously will be a factor based upon how he plays, probably in the early portion of the year in particular). I would predict something like 5 or 6 HR, 55 RBI, 35 SB, .280 AVg, .380 OBP. Those aren't all star numbers, but in a league that utilizes 4 or more OF, or NL-only leagues, or 12-14+ team leagues in general... he's worth an end-game pick or a $1-$4 gamble. In 3 OF leagues, I'd probably wait and see... there are a LOT of players like Eaton and a lot of OF depth in general, and I wouldn't gamble on him starting the year terribly and winding right back at Reno.

Because that's the thing. If he ends up at Reno again, he's looking at an age 24/25 year at AAA ...he's not the typical "Quad-A" bat.... he has no power to speak of. He's 5'8"...

You know who he reminds me of kind of? Mike Fontenot, only in the OF and with more speed, no extreme splits, and probably a better eye. But even Fontenot had an OPS of .900 one year in a platoon role...
I think his ceiling is higher than Mike Fontenot's ever was, but I don't see Eaton as being an all star or big difference maker at any point, ever. Unless he learns to hit 10 more home runs a year anyway.

He's a poor-man's Brett Gardner and until I see something from him in Spring Training, I can't trust him. Also- I would wager that Gardner and Eaton's ADP and/or draft day auction value will be similar... Eaton may even go for more (just because of Gardner's injury, and Eaton having the hot prospect tag and coming off of a yr in which he his .388 in the minors... even if it was Reno...).

.280/.380/25-35 SB w/ maybe 5 HR and 50 RBI, 90 runs. That is the best case scenario IMO. Worst case is he's demoted to Reno and fades into relative obscurity...

[klove42]

Ben Edelman, on 19 February 2013 - 01:44 PM, said:

Base: .270 / 8 / 45 / 80 runs / 25 SB
Upside: .295 / 12 / 65 / 100 runs / 40 SB
Downside: .240 / 3 / 20 / 30 runs / 12 SB (spends half the year in AAA with Parra playing CF)

I like these projections, very fair and reasonable. The good thing about Eaton is that he will be even more valuable in OBP leagues. He has a really good eye and BB% for such a young player.

[Nick Mitchell]

klove42, on 19 February 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

ballfan4141, on 19 February 2013 - 01:13 PM, said:

75 rbi. well then his runs should be more. going to have to see now with spring training.

I really dont think he will get to 75 RBI even if he is given an everyday job. I also think 15 homers is high. He might lead off for them, so as an NL leadoff hitter 75 RBI is tough.

Yeah, I didn't even see this before I typed my post up, but I agree entirely. They are pushing for him to become their lead-off man.

As someone above said, a LOT will hinge on how he does this spring. At least for me as far as drafting or looking to roster him goes.... I have no interest when there are so many speed/OBP guys out there who can come for the same (or less)... i.e. Gardner. This guy is a poor man's Brett Gardner though.

Edit- wait, you said that above. ha.

Edited by Nick Mitchell, 19 February 2013 - 01:54 PM.

[bravesfan4life]

Reno is such a hitter-friendly ballpark that its tough to predict anyone that comes out of there. Eaton won't win you a championship but he's a late round flier for some speed. I also like Parra depending on where he's going in drafts because like mentioned above he is going to be the super outfield sub at worst and will probably appear in every game.

[myzto]

bravesfan4life, on 19 February 2013 - 02:06 PM, said:

Reno is such a hitter-friendly ballpark that its tough to predict anyone that comes out of there. Eaton won't win you a championship but he's a late round flier for some speed. I also like Parra depending on where he's going in drafts because like mentioned above he is going to be the super outfield sub at worst and will probably appear in every game.

Shoot.. late round fliers do win you championships.  I'm excited to land Eaton on myteam expecting to get plenty of steals and a .380+ OBP.

[Z06vette]

Like this guy a lot..I can see this thread getting lots of hits during the season, and the man crush becoming bigger and bigger.

Nick Mitchell, on 19 February 2013 - 01:53 PM, said:

klove42, on 19 February 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

ballfan4141, on 19 February 2013 - 01:13 PM, said:

75 rbi. well then his runs should be more. going to have to see now with spring training.

I really dont think he will get to 75 RBI even if he is given an everyday job. I also think 15 homers is high. He might lead off for them, so as an NL leadoff hitter 75 RBI is tough.

Yeah, I didn't even see this before I typed my post up, but I agree entirely. They are pushing for him to become their lead-off man.

As someone above said, a LOT will hinge on how he does this spring. At least for me as far as drafting or looking to roster him goes.... I have no interest when there are so many speed/OBP guys out there who can come for the same (or less)... i.e. Gardner. This guy is a poor man's Brett Gardner though.

Edit- wait, you said that above. ha.

Really? I think Eaton can be good as Gardner every day of the week. Matter fact, I think Eaton can be better.

[supac720]

Gardner is in the better lineup, and yeah I wouldn't discount Parra and/or Campana stealing ABs. Heck, if Campana knew how to hit, he could probably swipe 75-80 bags.

[klove42]

supac720, on 19 February 2013 - 07:52 PM, said:

Gardner is in the better lineup, and yeah I wouldn't discount Parra and/or Campana stealing ABs. Heck, if Campana knew how to hit, he could probably swipe 75-80 bags.

If campana was Guarenteed an everyday spot no matter how he played I think he would still steal at least 50. On an unrelated note I thought I rember reading last year that campanas defense is bad despite his speed so that might make him only a pitch runner, I am more worried about Parra stealing at bats this organization refused to trade him two offseasons ago even though there were callers

[Nick Mitchell]

supac720, on 19 February 2013 - 07:52 PM, said:

Gardner is in the better lineup, and yeah I wouldn't discount Parra and/or Campana stealing ABs. Heck, if Campana knew how to hit, he could probably swipe 75-80 bags.

supac720, on 19 February 2013 - 07:52 PM, said:

Gardner is in the better lineup, and yeah I wouldn't discount Parra and/or Campana stealing ABs. Heck, if Campana knew how to hit, he could probably swipe 75-80 bags.

Bingo.

Campana being added to the team scares me. Because he is a poor man's Adam Eaton...

Get the trend?...

I'm not saying Eaton is bad... but he has the same game as Gardner. He's slightly younger and not coming off of injury, but he isn't as likely to see 500+ AB and he isn't batting in the loaded Yankees lineup. Gardner also has one SB crown and has only really had one complete loss year. His game shouldn't be hurt by the injury he had, either.

Gardner definitely holds more value than Eaton... but if people are considering Eaton a better play, then maybe I'll be lucky and land Gardner cheap in my draft. Who the hell knows anymore? I don't know why people are hyping a 5'8" speedster who had the majority of his success at Reno. That is hitter heaven. 47 doubles is a fluke... at least to some degree. The fact that 47 of his 51 came in Reno justifies this in my mind.

If he comes at a buck or two I'd place a bid, sure. But if I had to pay $10 for Adam Eaton or $15 for Gardner... I'd just spend the extra $5, truthfully (not that I'd want to pay either price for either player, but yeah).

Edited by Nick Mitchell, 19 February 2013 - 07:58 PM.

[2ndCitySox]

.365 OBP/10 HR/90 R/55 RBI/35 SB

90 runs feels a tad generous, but if he can have that OBP and steal 35 bases, it shouldn't be too much of a stretch.

[blangtang]

Sounds like De Aza type projections, or maybe that CF from HOU that started hot last year

[umphrey]

In an OBP league, he is definitely on my radar.  Probably someone I will reach for actually, because he's consistently OBPed around .450 in the minors and .382 in his ~100 MLB ABs last year.

Edited by umphrey, 21 February 2013 - 11:34 PM.

[JFS171]

I think we may be underrating his job security here, though I admit Gibson may be a touch of a wildcard.

OBP is a HUGE factor for lead-off hitters, and Eaton can absolutely get on base.  While the hitter haven he played in definitely inflated his power numbers, it generally shouldn't have a huge impact on his ability to get on base.  

The kid has a career .456 (.456!!! ) OBP in the minors.  In Reno, it was the exact same.  In 2011, across high-A and AA it was .434. In 2010 rookie ball it was .500.

The guy flat out knows how to get on first base, which makes him invaluable to a major league lineup.  When your leadoff guy is on-base twice a game on average (assuming 5 ABs), that's a massive advantage.  Especially when he can run, and puts that threat in the pitcher's mind.

Plus from what I've seen he plays sound defense, which, combined with his ability to get on base, will keep him in the lineup.  Speed usually doesn't take breaks or go through streaks... so if he's on base, he can run.

I'm a big fan this year.  Strong arm, ability to get on base, speed, and a little bit of pop.  What's not to like?