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Scott Kazmir 2013 Outlook


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#1 al3x

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 10:32 AM

Indians manager Terry Francona said Scott Kazmir has "looked so good it's scary" early on in camp....



anyone  reading into this, i this
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#2 PRoSPx

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 02:05 PM

View Postal3x, on 22 February 2013 - 10:32 AM, said:

Indians manager Terry Francona said Scott Kazmir has "looked so good it's scary" early on in camp....

anyone  reading into this, i this

This guy is a great dark horse sleeper.  He was so nasty when he first came up, his main problem was he needed to learn how to pitch better.  He always was getting into high counts and falling behind on hitters, but his overall stuff just helped carry him through.  Once he had arm problems he washed out quick because he needed to learn how to pitch, not just be filthy.

If his arm is healthy and he's learned how to pitch there is little reason we wouldn't be looking at a better version of what Ben Sheets did last year.

Edited by PRoSPx, 22 February 2013 - 02:06 PM.


#3 Blood Brother

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 02:20 PM

These are my favorite stories of ST. Guys who have had success in the past, flamed out due to injuries, hopefully looking to make it back.

I'll be rooting for him.

Edited by Blood Brother, 22 February 2013 - 02:21 PM.

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#4 klove42

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 02:47 PM

View PostBlood Brother, on 22 February 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

These are my favorite stories of ST. Guys who have had success in the past, flamed out due to injuries, hopefully looking to make it back.

I'll be rooting for him.

I feel like anything can happen in that rotation too especially with a new manager. If he can succeed in ST I really would not be surprised if he has a spot in the rotation.
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#5 jsp2014

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 02:49 PM

can't wait to lol the first time I see someone draft him/pick him up.

he's been terrible for 4 years but he's going to wake up and be good again!!

Edited by jsp2014, 22 February 2013 - 02:49 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#6 klove42

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 02:56 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 22 February 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:

can't wait to lol the first time I see someone draft him/pick him up.

he's been terrible for 4 years but he's going to wake up and be good again!!

Either way I still laugh that he was traded for the great Victor Zambrano.
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#7 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 02:58 PM

View PostBlood Brother, on 22 February 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

These are my favorite stories of ST. Guys who have had success in the past, flamed out due to injuries, hopefully looking to make it back.

I'll be rooting for him.


Basically. This is the same story every year, and it's basically the same 5-10 guys with some names being higher profiles than others. In a nutshell, the names are (usually) in order of important to not as important: Mark Prior, Brandon Webb (retired finally), Ben Sheets (retired last year, but his comeback was pretty special and I can respect what he did and am happy to see he went out on a high note kind of), Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young (although less spectacular than any of these guys even at his peak in his career, he is always being talked up as making a comeback and I believe just recently signed somewhere again), Dontrelle Willis (although not as a starter, he's back- again- this time trying to make it as a lefty specialist again, with his original org. the Cubs).... just some of the names of former star SP that are or were always talked-up as making comebacks.

I always am in their corner, and sometimes they do make it back (see: Jake Peavy, who I thought was a longshot to ever make 10 starts again, let alone log 220 innings or whatever he did and net a huge deal with the White Sox while having just a very nice year in general honestly, after that surgery... or even a guy like Capuano, who had what- two TJ surgeries before returning value as a very respectable #3 or #4?...)

It's just rare that guys like that are the exception. If I'm betting, I'd be betting against Kazmir making a major impact. The 4th and 5th (or at least 5th) spot(s) in that rotation are up for grab, but there are (even in Cleveland!) guys with more upside than a 31-year-old Kazmir... unless he's had a complete resurgence in the time away from the game and rehabbed his arm strength, or found the fountain of youth or some steroid that provides it (or both!).... I just don't see it, despite the reports of increased velocity. He is a guy I will not draft, but if he is available on waivers and he makes the team, I would probably spend a buck to pick him up if I could do it. He's worth the risk *if* he makes the team... but I really think that should still be considered a long-shot.

I am rooting for him though.
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#8 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:00 PM

Hey, remember now... Jose Rijo took what, 5 years off... and then he pitched about 27 innings from 2000-2002, didn't he?!
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#9 jsp2014

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:01 PM

View Postklove42, on 22 February 2013 - 02:56 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 22 February 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:

can't wait to lol the first time I see someone draft him/pick him up.

he's been terrible for 4 years but he's going to wake up and be good again!!

Either way I still laugh that he was traded for the great Victor Zambrano.


that was a sad night when I heard that news.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#10 al3x

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:07 PM

yeah he has been away for a long time now, but in the winter league said his velocity has improved, which has been what made him a good pitcher, and when he lost most of his velocity he went down hill quick and he never came out of the dark hole.
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#11 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:18 PM

If Toe Nash or that #1 Yankees pick (Brien Taylor) could play in the winter league, I'm sure they would get rave reviews too.... but they're both in jail, so I don't think it would be possible even if they could still play. :(

Point being... the winter league is full of stories like this, or players who run more and talk about wanting to up their SB attempts heading into the next year, or stories of weight loss/muscle gain, etc. etc. etc.....

It's all talk until I see something in spring training, to be honest.
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#12 baltimore_boy

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:22 PM

I hope Kazmir has success, but I'm not letting him anywhere near my team.
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#13 PepperPot

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:22 PM

View PostNick Mitchell, on 22 February 2013 - 02:58 PM, said:

View PostBlood Brother, on 22 February 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

These are my favorite stories of ST. Guys who have had success in the past, flamed out due to injuries, hopefully looking to make it back.

I'll be rooting for him.


Basically. This is the same story every year, and it's basically the same 5-10 guys with some names being higher profiles than others. In a nutshell, the names are (usually) in order of important to not as important: Mark Prior, Brandon Webb (retired finally), Ben Sheets (retired last year, but his comeback was pretty special and I can respect what he did and am happy to see he went out on a high note kind of), Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young (although less spectacular than any of these guys even at his peak in his career, he is always being talked up as making a comeback and I believe just recently signed somewhere again), Dontrelle Willis (although not as a starter, he's back- again- this time trying to make it as a lefty specialist again, with his original org. the Cubs).... just some of the names of former star SP that are or were always talked-up as making comebacks.

I always am in their corner, and sometimes they do make it back (see: Jake Peavy, who I thought was a longshot to ever make 10 starts again, let alone log 220 innings or whatever he did and net a huge deal with the White Sox while having just a very nice year in general honestly, after that surgery... or even a guy like Capuano, who had what- two TJ surgeries before returning value as a very respectable #3 or #4?...)

It's just rare that guys like that are the exception. If I'm betting, I'd be betting against Kazmir making a major impact. The 4th and 5th (or at least 5th) spot(s) in that rotation are up for grab, but there are (even in Cleveland!) guys with more upside than a 31-year-old Kazmir... unless he's had a complete resurgence in the time away from the game and rehabbed his arm strength, or found the fountain of youth or some steroid that provides it (or both!).... I just don't see it, despite the reports of increased velocity. He is a guy I will not draft, but if he is available on waivers and he makes the team, I would probably spend a buck to pick him up if I could do it. He's worth the risk *if* he makes the team... but I really think that should still be considered a long-shot.

I am rooting for him though.

Kazmir just turned 29 in January.  It's hard to fathom that he started pitching for the Rays when he was just 20 years old.  I am rooting for Kazmir, but it's a long shot to even expect him to make the team let alone make some sort of contribution (in fantasy or real life).  As of right now, I believe the Indians are better off going with other options at the back end of their rotation...but if he actually throws 92-93 and has any sort of control that he use it, who knows what could happen.
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#14 malta69

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:23 PM

I'd bid a buck on him at end of auction, sure why not?

Worked with guys like Peavy and Burnett last year
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#15 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 04:16 PM

I think a James McDonald could be a buck or two in the back end of a draft this year, and probably pay-off more than a guy like Kazmir.... or even a guy like Johan or maybe even Liriano..


I don't think Kazmir is a guy you can draft, at least until you know he is locking down the 5th spot. And that's far from guaranteed. The difference between the case of a Peavy and/or Burnett vs. Kazmir is they weren't literally 4 years removed from any success really at all. (Or has it been 5 now?)

It is amazing that he is only 29. I would have sworn he was 3, maybe even 2 years older... that's nuts.
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#16 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 04:56 PM

The major red flag for Kazmir is that his problems were shoulder-related.   Taking almost 2 years off from MLB will help you feel a lot better for sure - but players with balky shoulders often hit a wall after 100+ MLB innings. Chris Young, Johan Santana, Dustin McGowan, Gil Meche, Brandon Webb, - the list of pitchers in the last 5 years (and the list above is but a small sample) tells a similar tale (looks good early on, then as the wear & tear restarts, the same issues flare up again).   And for those who might suggest the injury was minor - hard to believe it was minor if it caused someone to not throw for over a year, and on a huge decline the prior 3+ seasons....

If it was another type of recovery, the increased velo would be very hopeful - but I would be lying if I said that I haven't heard this before with guys who take extended rest (Kelvim Escobar is a great example of this as well). At the end of the draft there's nothing lost, but counting on health in Kaz is way more likely to be fool's gold given the shoulder has been the issue.   At least the cost is practically nil, but even then, when it comes to shoulder injury recovery, well, history shows skepticism is more than warranted.
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#17 Blood Brother

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 05:00 PM

Dude formed a dynamic 1-2 punch in the rotation alongside Roger Clemens for the SUGARLAND SKEETERS last year
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#18 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 05:14 PM

View PostBlood Brother, on 22 February 2013 - 05:00 PM, said:

Dude formed a dynamic 1-2 punch in the rotation alongside Roger Clemens for the SUGARLAND SKEETERS last year

I'm guessing that we don't get PitchFX data there, though - which brings up what exactly he used - because FB's and changeups would be low-stress pitches.   The slider, of course, is the one that creates the most fatigue. Much like pitching in simulated games and off the mound doesn't create the extra 5-10 percent of stress of "all-out" MLB (or high-level MILB games) which then creates the injury nexus we see when pitchers return to actual MLB in-game pitching - it's hard to read much into semipro games without knowing how much he actually went all-out, or used the pitch that creates the most stress (because I'm guessing he didn't need his A game to pitch there, call it a hunch :lol:).

There's no doubt he once had the stuff - it's just when you get his rapid decline, it HAD to be health related (age 25-27 is when he free-fell).   And knowing it's the shoulder that was the key culprit back then, well, caution is the right call.  Again, it's nothing that prevents an end-game, last-round pick - but counting on any sustained success, given what we know about shoulder issues, well, I commend the Indians for taking a zero-risk flyer, but anything else FBB-wise beyond mere speculation would be not just uncommon, but the exceedingly rare exception.
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#19 ssmarsh

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 05:18 PM

There was a fangraphs article a few years back about why Kazmir is broken.  The fact that the Indians are high on him just goes to show how bad their pitching is.  Avoid him like the plague.
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#20 avatoot

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 05:31 PM

Depending on how he does in spring training he might be worth a pickup in deeper leagues. He could be good for a month and than have fatigue. I would still take a chance on him. Worse case scenario is an easy drop but could make a nice recovery similar to R.A. Dickeys rebirth from his injury years ago.
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