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Fernando Rodney 2013 Outlook


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#1 UCONNBA

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 11:36 AM

Does he replicate last year's success?

#2 Batmaster

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 01:11 PM

If you (or I) draft him, no -- if you (or I) pass on him, yes.....................

hard to expect that he'll be that good again, but top 10 closer seems realistic

#3 ludawg23

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 01:23 PM

I'll be passing on him for sure.  That season came out of nowhere and he doesn't have a track record that says repeat.  The inflated price tag and the unknown is more than enough for me to pass on.
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#4 jb_power

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 01:31 PM

View PostUCONNBA, on 22 February 2013 - 11:36 AM, said:

Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers.  i.e  in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

#5 96mnc

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 06:09 PM

View Postjb_power, on 22 February 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

View PostUCONNBA, on 22 February 2013 - 11:36 AM, said:

Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers.  i.e  in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

I don't know if anyone can replicate his numbers last year.  They were historic.

The real question is how far does he decline?  To a 2.5 ERA?  3?  3.5?

Edited by 96mnc, 22 February 2013 - 06:09 PM.


#6 Timmah!

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 07:13 PM

View Post96mnc, on 22 February 2013 - 06:09 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 22 February 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

View PostUCONNBA, on 22 February 2013 - 11:36 AM, said:

Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers.  i.e  in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

I don't know if anyone can replicate his numbers last year.  They were historic.

The real question is how far does he decline?  To a 2.5 ERA?  3?  3.5?

It's funny, RW's draft guide suggests that his ERA could quintuple from last season, and for any other guy, that would be a nightmare.  For Rodney, it means going from 0.60 to 3.00.

I think the truth is in between, and even if he does hover around 3.00, it's not a killer, unless he's blowing saves in the process.  As offered in the Closer thread, there has been analysis into Rodney's historic season and it's about as close to being repeatable as you can get in sports: http://forums.rotowo...20#entry3282742

He will slide in drafts, simply because people don't trust him, but I'm all in.
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#7 Wavier JunKie

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 09:32 PM

View PostTimmah!, on 22 February 2013 - 07:13 PM, said:

View Post96mnc, on 22 February 2013 - 06:09 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 22 February 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

View PostUCONNBA, on 22 February 2013 - 11:36 AM, said:

Does he replicate last year's success?

I don't think there's one person in the world (except for Fernando's mother) who thinks he can replicate his 2012 numbers.

I also feel that most everyone has him rated outside of the top 5 closers.  i.e  in MDII on this forum I selected him in the 13th round and he was the 7th closer off the board.

I don't know if anyone can replicate his numbers last year.  They were historic.

The real question is how far does he decline?  To a 2.5 ERA?  3?  3.5?

It's funny, RW's draft guide suggests that his ERA could quintuple from last season, and for any other guy, that would be a nightmare.  For Rodney, it means going from 0.60 to 3.00.

I think the truth is in between, and even if he does hover around 3.00, it's not a killer, unless he's blowing saves in the process.  As offered in the Closer thread, there has been analysis into Rodney's historic season and it's about as close to being repeatable as you can get in sports: http://forums.rotowo...20#entry3282742

He will slide in drafts, simply because people don't trust him, but I'm all in.

Yes sir.  I will take him around 100 every chance I get.  Something special happened when he went to the Rays.  Jim Hickey maybe?

#8 baltimore_boy

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 09:51 PM

He's Godney! I still believe. Probably not .6, but I can see 2.5.
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#9 calzonesays

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 02:01 PM

It's almost like Rodney is being undervalued/underrated in rankings this season based on the fact he's going to "regress".

Had a historic season and he's rated below the top 100 in mocks? I'll take Rodney in the 10th round if people are that afraid of him.

#10 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:28 PM

Reminds me of Brad Lidge's 2008 season.  Lidge had an amazing year, but he got stupid lucky in a lot of respects.  Stat correction for the ages the following year.

#11 Neymar

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 05:31 PM

I'm also a big believer.  Looks like I'll be owning him everywhere.

#12 juice219

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 05:45 PM

As a Tiger fan, I watched him have close to zero control. Was happy when he went to LA, and even have less control. Dude isn't exactly young.  I'm on the 1 year fluke bad wagon. No way he comes close to making the AS game.

#13 Suikoden

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 06:40 PM

what if he pulls a Bautista and pulls the same numbers and like, 55SV?  I could see many people just /e-suiciding for passing lol

I'm not sold on him though, not with those career numbers; and I owned him last year when I picked him up from FA as I needed a closer hah
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Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
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C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#14 Neymar

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 07:17 PM

Everybody keeps citing his career numbers.  He made some pretty significant changes in his delivery before last season (much like the aforementioned Bautista before he broke out).  You can't just dismiss him due to his horrid career numbers.  The guy is a (very) different pitcher now.

But I'm glad people think this way.  It got me a nice price on Bautista a few years ago, and is getting me a nice price on the guy who had the lowest ERA in MLB history last year.  Yes, please.

Now, I'm certainly not saying he's going to have a sub-1.00 ERA again this year...but I do think he'll repeat as an elite closer.

#15 SuperJoint

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 07:48 PM

I'll pass. Ignoring - he's still going too high at 10 if that's the price.
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#16 CM52

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 08:26 PM

Jake McGee will be closing by the end of the year.  But go ahead and buy.

#17 Neymar

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 08:30 PM

View PostCM52, on 11 March 2013 - 08:26 PM, said:

Jake McGee will be closing by the end of the year.  But go ahead and buy.

Barring injury, the only thing McGee will be closing is the bullpen door after Rodney leaves to shut down another 9th inning.

#18 juice219

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:21 PM

View PostNeymar, on 11 March 2013 - 07:17 PM, said:

Everybody keeps citing his career numbers.  He made some pretty significant changes in his delivery before last season (much like the aforementioned Bautista before he broke out).  You can't just dismiss him due to his horrid career numbers.  The guy is a (very) different pitcher now.

But I'm glad people think this way.  It got me a nice price on Bautista a few years ago, and is getting me a nice price on the guy who had the lowest ERA in MLB history last year.  Yes, please.

Now, I'm certainly not saying he's going to have a sub-1.00 ERA again this year...but I do think he'll repeat as an elite closer.

Umm, you can't dismiss his horrid career numbers???huh?  What else is there to go on?  At his age, and past history, I think the odds are that he resorts back to his career numbers, rather than his one magical year. Jmo. Even Brady Anderson hit 50 hr one year. He is already kept and owned in my league. I will just sit back and watch the implosion.

#19 Neymar

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:54 PM

View Postjuice219, on 11 March 2013 - 10:21 PM, said:

View PostNeymar, on 11 March 2013 - 07:17 PM, said:

Everybody keeps citing his career numbers.  He made some pretty significant changes in his delivery before last season (much like the aforementioned Bautista before he broke out).  You can't just dismiss him due to his horrid career numbers.  The guy is a (very) different pitcher now.

But I'm glad people think this way.  It got me a nice price on Bautista a few years ago, and is getting me a nice price on the guy who had the lowest ERA in MLB history last year.  Yes, please.

Now, I'm certainly not saying he's going to have a sub-1.00 ERA again this year...but I do think he'll repeat as an elite closer.

Umm, you can't dismiss his horrid career numbers???huh?  What else is there to go on?  At his age, and past history, I think the odds are that he resorts back to his career numbers, rather than his one magical year. Jmo. Even Brady Anderson hit 50 hr one year. He is already kept and owned in my league. I will just sit back and watch the implosion.

So did you not understand the part about him changing his delivery significantly and why that's important, or did you simply ignore it?

Everybody always cites Brady Anderson.  We already know why he had that season...roids.  It completely baffles me why people continue to bring up that season when it is easily explainable and was not simply an anomalous season in comparison to his other seasons.  It was steroid fueled, period.

Edited by Neymar, 11 March 2013 - 10:55 PM.


#20 Suikoden

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:21 PM

Rodney and Eckersley were both 35 when they did amazing
The year following his amazing year, Ecker racked up 43 saves, but a 3 era, and then the years after well...yeah...old age was showing
The difference between the two?  Ecker was actually GOOD before his historic year...Rodney was not
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones




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