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Kyle Lohse 2013 OutlookWhere will he land?


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#1 compsella

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 04:44 PM

This guy was just terrific last year.  I was starting to feel bad for him that he doesn't have a home, until I remembered who is agent is.

Anyone wanna speculate for whom he will toe the bump?
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#2 baltimore_boy

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 09:39 PM

I wouldn't rule out him not signing before the year. It is Boras.
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#3 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 10:50 PM

So many teams could use an arm that fits his pedigree. On a one-year deal around 10-15mil even, the gamble is fine....


Personally, I still think he may wind up back with the Cardinals on a 1-year deal with a team option or vesting option, perhaps. Extra pitching never hurts, and even though I feel Lynn is worthy of a rotation spot and both Miller and Rosenthal could get the job done, if he falls back into their laps.....
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#4 bravesfan4life

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 12:20 AM

If he falls back to the Cardinals it will be below market value and probably a 1 year deal. Cards have all the leverage in negotiations because they could easily go on without him

#5 The Czar

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 11:27 AM

View Postbravesfan4life, on 23 February 2013 - 12:20 AM, said:

If he falls back to the Cardinals it will be below market value and probably a 1 year deal. Cards have all the leverage in negotiations because they could easily go on without him

Exactly.  But they are also the only team that won't lose a draft pick by signing him.


Borass totally miscalculated the market for him.  He clearly should have taken that qualifying offer.  It's going to be hard to recoup that $13 million.  No team wants to even pay $10 million for one season if it means losing a first round pick.

I'm surprised more teams haven't jumped in that already lost that pick like say the Angels.  The are already all in for the next few years, seem to have a pile of money, and could really use him in that 4/5 slot.  Cleveland made some crazy signings and they want to contend, but still don't have enough pitching, so he would be a good fit there if they had the money.

Outside of that, he would just be waiting for injuries at this point.  The Giants have no depth after their first five starters and are playing to win now. Those guys also don't miss starts.  I could see the Giants going after him if they lost a guy.  He is a local kid and would fit.  I don't think they have the payroll flexibility though as they are claiming they are capped out at $140 million, but have $40 million coming off the books next year if Lincecum walks and when/if they let Zito go.  Lincecum's contract negotiations may also play a role.  A two year deal with Lohse in that situation would be nice insurance if Lincecum walks and would mean they only need to fill one SP spot next year instead of 2.  It would all be dependent on an injury though as their top 5 are set.
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#6 The Czar

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 11:35 AM

I wonder if he is worth a draft pick and if so, where do you take him?  Hmmmm.


It seems like only a matter of time before somebody picks him up, but it's still a pretty big gamble at this point.  I once held Jermaine Dye for half a season in the hopes of him signing someplace in a deeper league in a similar situation.  Pitchers seem to get signed more than aging sluggers though, so I have more hope that Lohse gets a gig.  I was still shocked that Dye didn't get a shot either that year.  There were a lot of putrid DHs and lots of clubs that could have used him that season.
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#7 supac720

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 12:17 PM

Jermaine Dye wanted too much $$ if I recall correctly. Nobody wanted to pay him what he felt he was worth, so he decided to just hang em up instead. He still could've hit somewhere, absolutely.

#8 The Czar

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 12:58 PM

View Postsupac720, on 23 February 2013 - 12:17 PM, said:

Jermaine Dye wanted too much $$ if I recall correctly. Nobody wanted to pay him what he felt he was worth, so he decided to just hang em up instead. He still could've hit somewhere, absolutely.

Isn't that pretty much the same scenario though?

Lohse is going to want at least 13 million for a one-year deal as that is the offer he turned down.  Or he is going to want a mult-year deal that is comparable.

Dye did want more money, but it wasn't an outrageous amount.  Something like $5 million.  We saw other comparable sluggers get what Dye wanted.

Lohse is a double whammy though because not only does he want more money than teams want, but also has that draft pick attached.  That alone disqualifies a ton of the market and that means he may even face a tougher time signing than Dye did.

I think he will sign someplace, don't get me wrong.  But I also thought the same thing for Dye.
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#9 Halo Fan

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 10:21 PM

View PostThe Czar, on 23 February 2013 - 11:35 AM, said:

I wonder if he is worth a draft pick and if so, where do you take him?  Hmmmm.


It seems like only a matter of time before somebody picks him up, but it's still a pretty big gamble at this point.  I once held Jermaine Dye for half a season in the hopes of him signing someplace in a deeper league in a similar situation.  Pitchers seem to get signed more than aging sluggers though, so I have more hope that Lohse gets a gig.  I was still shocked that Dye didn't get a shot either that year.  There were a lot of putrid DHs and lots of clubs that could have used him that season.


I drafted and held him, too. :/
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#10 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 11:22 PM

3 scenarios if he signs anywhere...

1. Cardinals can sign him for a 1 year deal with an option. 11mil 2013, 13mil 2014, 2mil buyout. That assures he gets his 13mil.... and it gives them depth they need, and allows them to delay their rookies or keep them in pen or 6th/7th/8th starter roles like they love to do.
2. Gio gets a 50 game. I found the timing of the Lohse/Nats rumors coupled with the timing of the whole Gio/FLA clinic connection popping up at the same time a little bit interesting. It has died down, and supposedly Gio is clean, but if it winds up being that he gets a suspension.... Lohse to WAS would become my immediate guess on a deal similar to what the Cardinals could offer him.
3. The Angels. I mean, as others have said, it won't cost them a major pick at this point. They are all-in. They could probably even give him a 3-year deal if they so desired, or a 2-year w/ a vesting option for the 3rd or something like that, and still get it done. Their 4 and 5 pitchers are Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton right now... not exactly ringing endorsements. Their insurance policy is the 15th wonder of the world, the one and only seashell necklace-donning Jerome Williams....

And if they're expecting to make the playoffs-- let alone win the World Series-- as incredible as their lineup is, that won't cut it.
---

It's funny. Lohse, post-draft last year in my league (14 teams, $260 budget, someone spent $4 on him or something too I think), he was cut. Immediately. I added him with a $0 bid while still on waivers (Yahoo! didn't allow for real FAAB yet so we had FAAB and then FA pickups whereas this year it'll be true FAAB all year), thinking he'd be a nice use in the early portion of the year if he had a start anything like his 2011. Well, he did that and more and I kept him all season, with him making at least 25 starts... I did not need to sit him often. Sad thing is he'll begin the year on the wire again, barring a signing anytime soon... and pitchers like him need to get hot early to have a nice year, or hold fantasy value... in my opinion at least.

It's insane a guy entering the FA market as the SP with the best W-L%, most Wins (I think?), best ERA, etc.... in a year without many decent free agent pitchers, at that... and he still can't find a job. Boras really did market him wrong, plain and simple, but I also wonder if he is or has been asking for way too much behind closed doors. There has to be a reason why SO many teams aren't interested. Aren't picks 1-10 protected? And again, a team who has burnt through their picks like the Angels should have no reason to at least kick tires, especially with that wonderful back-end to their staff....
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#11 Oriole Way

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 01:51 AM

View PostThe Czar, on 23 February 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

View Postsupac720, on 23 February 2013 - 12:17 PM, said:

Jermaine Dye wanted too much $$ if I recall correctly. Nobody wanted to pay him what he felt he was worth, so he decided to just hang em up instead. He still could've hit somewhere, absolutely.

Isn't that pretty much the same scenario though?

Lohse is going to want at least 13 million for a one-year deal as that is the offer he turned down.  Or he is going to want a mult-year deal that is comparable.

Dye did want more money, but it wasn't an outrageous amount.  Something like $5 million.  We saw other comparable sluggers get what Dye wanted.

Lohse is a double whammy though because not only does he want more money than teams want, but also has that draft pick attached.  That alone disqualifies a ton of the market and that means he may even face a tougher time signing than Dye did.

I think he will sign someplace, don't get me wrong.  But I also thought the same thing for Dye.

I believe Dye was a much different case.  I think teams just didn't think he had enough left in the tank, at least not to justify locking up their DH spot (even if they should have) at anything more than $1 or $2 million.

With Lohse, he's just way over-priced and teams don't want to lose a pick.  If his price comes down to betweeen $7 million or $10 million, you will have several teams very interested.  With Dye, he could have come down from his demands by anywhere between 25% and 40% and teams still wouldn't have been interested.

Edited by Oriole Way, 24 February 2013 - 01:52 AM.


#12 supac720

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 08:45 AM

Don't want to derail this thread, but Dye was only 36 when he stopped playing. I fully believe he had a couple years left, but who knows teams probably saw him as an old 36 because of the injuries. Torii Hunter still gets paid because he's always been pretty healthy (minor injury in 09 notwithstanding) I guess timing is everything though.

#13 ipstaff

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 12:55 PM

Just look a Lohse's career record (not just his last 2 seasons) to see why teams are reticent to crack open the piggybank for him.

#14 klove42

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 01:00 PM

View Postipstaff, on 24 February 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:

Just look a Lohse's career record (not just his last 2 seasons) to see why teams are reticent to crack open the piggybank for him.

I don't think he is worth it either unless he signs a one year deal for under ten mil. I know his last two years have been great, but if I was a GM I wouldn't want to give up a pick, multiple years on a contract, and more then ten mil a year
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#15 The Czar

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 06:13 PM

View Postklove42, on 24 February 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View Postipstaff, on 24 February 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:

Just look a Lohse's career record (not just his last 2 seasons) to see why teams are reticent to crack open the piggybank for him.

I don't think he is worth it either unless he signs a one year deal for under ten mil. I know his last two years have been great, but if I was a GM I wouldn't want to give up a pick, multiple years on a contract, and more then ten mil a year

Yup.  Scott Borass really messed up with Lohse here and will probably cost him a few million.

This will be a huge lesson to other players that are in their mid-30s that they should probably accept the qualifying 1-year offer in the future.

I just don't see any scenario now for Lohse where he makes $13 million, even on a one-year deal and the fact he has a pick assigned to him now makes him almost untouchable for most teams even though he is a quality player.  If he didn't have that pick attached he would probably already have a job someplace.
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#16 klove42

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 06:43 PM

View PostThe Czar, on 24 February 2013 - 06:13 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 24 February 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View Postipstaff, on 24 February 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:

Just look a Lohse's career record (not just his last 2 seasons) to see why teams are reticent to crack open the piggybank for him.

I don't think he is worth it either unless he signs a one year deal for under ten mil. I know his last two years have been great, but if I was a GM I wouldn't want to give up a pick, multiple years on a contract, and more then ten mil a year

Yup.  Scott Borass really messed up with Lohse here and will probably cost him a few million.

This will be a huge lesson to other players that are in their mid-30s that they should probably accept the qualifying 1-year offer in the future.

I just don't see any scenario now for Lohse where he makes $13 million, even on a one-year deal and the fact he has a pick assigned to him now makes him almost untouchable for most teams even though he is a quality player.  If he didn't have that pick attached he would probably already have a job someplace.

The pick thing is pretty important, but I am surprised the Indians don't go after him. They have their first round protected and their second round is already going to atl for bourn. Why not just sign lohse and try to make a run in the central.
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#17 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 11:21 PM

For what it's worth... (in my opinion, not a lot).... Chicago papers floated the idea of Lohse to the Cubs both last fall/winter (before and after the Jackson signing, I believe-- just small bits and nothing big) and there has been mumble here or there if his price were to completely drop and he could be had for a 1 yr deal. But I don't know how the hell that would work, as Feldman was given the 4th spot in the rotation, with Villanueva and Wood expected to compete for the 5th with Wood being the current favorite... signing a pitcher like Lohse would all but push them both to the pen and make Wood a prime trade candidate in my opinion. The only way I like this is if the Cubs are really going to try to content for the 2nd wild card this year, and if not (or if they aren't, rather), they can unload Lohse closer to the deadline and slide Villanueva into the 5th spot (or a guy like Baker, even). One thing about baseball that can't be said enough is there will be injuries to your starting pitchers. The Cubs are effectively 7-deep when you count Villanueva, Wood, and then Baker (upon return). I do wonder though, but the rumors were really only on talk radio for a day or so and now it's just Hawks Hawks Hawks Hawks...

I remember a player-- I believe it was Orlando Cabrera, but I'm not positive-- who had a problem like this. No one wanted to surrender a Type-A pick per the rules of the CBA at the time for him, and I believe he eventually signed with Oakland and then was dealt to Minnesota. However, upon signing with Oakland, his agent had built a clause into his deal that made so no team could offer arbitration to him after the season, thus he would not have the same issues signing with a squad the following off-season (he was pretty much at the end by this point, though, so he didn't get much interest anyway if I remember correctly...but the point remains).

This kind of reminds me of that situation. I think Cabrera signed near the end of spring training, perhaps the beginning.... but it was late in any case, and it was because of the pick and him being good, but not good enough to justify the money and loss of a pick. I think he made roughly 4mil, and I don't think the A's had to give up a 1st for him, either.... just their 2nd and a sandwich or comp. pick if I'm remembering right. Nonetheless, his agent had something built into his contract so no team could offer him arbitration no matter the case before signing that deal with the A's.

I wonder if this will be a clause that will become common at some point, as this Lohse situation is sure to open the eyes of other players (similar to a guy like Lohse-- mid-30s, good numbers, but either at the ceiling or a year or two from possibly starting their decline-- and this goes for batters as well really). I don't think Boras will stop at anything to try and get an extra buck, and the general theory always has been and always is (from the eyes of reporters and even writers on rotoworld, for that matter) that all it takes is one team to throw that big deal at you.

I just don't think Lohse is good enough for that, and never was. A lot of the time these writers or analysts are right. It takes one big offer, and bam, the FA no one could see getting 150mil+ suddenly has that 150mil or even more than what was doubted. It's true that it just takes one team to overbid or bid in general, even if a player's market is low....
Look at Jason Werth and how much he is making. Bad player? No. Good player? Yes. Solid more than good at this point, maybe. He's a fine outfielder on a team like that, but for what he's making? Nowhere near that kind of money and he is the prime example of the theory that it just takes one team to overpay or go after you, and you're a made man.

With the draft pick in play, Lohse's initial demands being of the 4-5 year variety, and the fact that he is a product of a Cardinals staff that made Kent Bottenfield an 18 game winner once upon a time-- and I'm sorry to name-drop a scrub from that long ago, but let's be real here.... whether it's Duncan now or not, the Cardinals have always bred pitching pretty well (or at least they have for the past 15 years or so), and it was no surprise to see a guy like Lohse find success there... at least to me.
Hell, for the sake of relevance, I'll toss another bum pitcher who was also a former Cubs prospect to never put it together and find brief success in STL.... Todd Wellemeyer. It was one season, sure, but to make 32 starts and pitch 190+ inning with an ERA around 3.70 and a WHIP around 1.20 is a pretty big success in itself when you're working with a guy like Todd Wellemeyer who (I believe) was a guy coming over from the Royals and coming off of a year in long relief/mopup roles... and that's on the Royals, mind you, and during a season in which they were pretty dismal.

As I realize I have strayed off-topic... my point about Lohse is pretty much just that. As a late bloomer who has had his best years during time with the Cardinals, I think that scares teams. The draft pick makes it even worse. And he is not worth the money and the pick. Maybe the money, not the pick, like someone above said.

He could put up another nice year... or he could very well pitch terrible. As spring training gets a week or two in, he's going to want to either bite the bullet and lower his demands dramatically, or maybe see if the Cards have interest left...
I can still see Cleveland being the most realistic destination at this point too. I even read an article that suggests that signing him would make them favorites in the division... which is laughable, but that's bleachereport for you.

I don't think Mlwaukee will sign him, if for the sour taste Jeff Suppan (who I think was 31 or 32, not even as old as Lohse at 33/3... and ... you guessed it!... coming off of success with the Cardinals before they signed him) alone, not to mention they would stand to lose their draft pick.

I think a big issue with any or maybe all of the teams that have considered Lohse and would stand to lose a first round pick is the fact that on a 1-2 year deal (and I don't think anyone will go more than 2-- maybe 3 with a vesting option of buy-out, but 2 w/ an option seems like the most he's going to get and that may be pushing it), even if he pitches to the tune of about 400 innings with a 3.50 ERA and 20-30 wins over that 2 year span, is worth losing a pick for. At 34 years old, I don't think many team want to consider 4-5 years.
The stigma of being a former Cardinals pitcher isn't something you want to have attached to you...

And he wasn't even great with the Twins. In this article suggesting that CLE go after him (thus, making them contenders right there w/ DET if Lohse is signed), he is written up to have had some sort of great success and familiarity in the AL Central. To my recollection, Eric Milton and Joe Mays (yeah, Joe freakin' Mays) had better years with the Twins during that time-frame when Lohse may have won 14 games once (with a high ERA at that, and probably a lot of run support to help him out). I recall hm bouncing around with teams like Cincinatti and Philly before landing on his feet in STL and having a nice year, signing his deal, and then being worthless for the first half of his contract. The past two years have obviously gone better.

It'll be interesting to see... I don't know if he would be the type to want to sign mid-season, and I don't know if the Cardinals are even going to want him at 10mil or less at this point. I would think that it's Rosenthal or whats-his-name's spot to lose in that rotation for #5. Should he be sitting out there and May or something, and the bottom half of the Cards' rotation be struggling.... I still think his best bet at having another good year and getting a deal for 3 years at 10mil+ is if he plays out this upcoming season in the Cards' rotation and either has an agreement with them to not place a qualifying offer on him or something.

I do wonder as stated above, though.... under the terms of the new CBA, does anyone suppose it would be allowed and may become a trend of sorts for players & agents to have stipulations built into a player's contract to avoid situations like this? Or, at least under certain scenarios perhaps. Like with Cabrera.
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#18 The Czar

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 12:08 AM

The Cabrera situation is exactly why they totally redid the agreement on compensation.

Prior to this season all a team had to do was offer a guy arbitration and if he was one of the top players at his position over a certain period of time (I think they used 3 year increments) then that player would have pick compensation attached to him.  It really screwed over guys at thin positions like SS and they also used it for relievers, which was ridiculous.  Jose Valverde would have had a pick attached to him in the old system.  He can't find a job right now anyway, but you could imagine how hard it would have been if it cost a team a draft pick.

The new system is actually much better for the players as long as they don't get their market wrong.  The team has to make a qualifying offer of 13 million for a pick to be rewarded.  Cabrera never had that option as he would have taken something like that in a second.  Lohse didn't take the offer in order to become a FA.  It backfired on him.  I think he just got caught in this awkward spot where he sees this as his last multi-year deal and wanted so much to cash in and the 1-year deal scared him because he knew if he signed it, he would be on 1-year deals for the rest of his career.  Boras really screwed up on this one.  He does that from time to time.  Most times he can fix it or a team will bail him out like the Yankees (I wonder how much they wish they hadn't resigned A-rod after the opt-out), but this market is proving a little tougher.


I can't imagine any player asking a team NOT to make him a 13 million offer.  That is kind of what you are suggesting above.   Marginal players just need to bite the bullet and accept the offer unless they know for sure they can get a better offer someplace else.  It's actually kind of shocking to me that the Cardinals even made the offer to begin with, especially with Miller and Rosenthal waiting in the wings.

Instead, what I think you will see agents and players doing is trying to time their free agency better.  They will either go for a shorter deal when they are like 25-26 years old where they would become a FA at around age 29-30 (they pretty much do this anyway), or they will try to get more years with a club to make sure they can finish their career there.

Becoming a FA in your mid-30s now could mean 1-year deals to finish out  (only elite guys in their 30's will probably get qualifying offers). The qualifying offer is pretty good at $13 million.  I think it will benefit players more than hurt them in most situations.  You might also see teams make the qualifying offer for guys not at that value because they don't want to lose them, even if the player isn't worth that amount.  If you had a guy that is more like a $10 million player, but there isn't a strong market out there, you may make the qualifying offer just to make sure he remains on that club.
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#19 d_wag

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:32 AM

I believe the new CBA forbids teams from offering the "non arbitration" clause now. If I recall correctly it even goes a step further by stating written or implied are not permitted, although I have no idea how anyone could prove implied assuming everyone keeps there mouth shut.

In this situation, the fault lies with boras more than the system. He overplayed his hand as he often does and really screwed up lohse's year. As much as boras gambles he ends up making an awful lot of mistakes. Very over-rated IMO.

#20 calzonesays

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:40 AM

View Postd_wag, on 25 February 2013 - 01:32 AM, said:

I believe the new CBA forbids teams from offering the "non arbitration" clause now. If I recall correctly it even goes a step further by stating written or implied are not permitted, although I have no idea how anyone could prove implied assuming everyone keeps there mouth shut.

In this situation, the fault lies with boras more than the system. He overplayed his hand as he often does and really screwed up lohse's year. As much as boras gambles he ends up making an awful lot of mistakes. Very over-rated IMO.

Boras is far from overrated, even after this blunder.

For every Kyle Lohse there are many Rafael Soriano, Alex Rodriguez and Barry Zito type contracts Boras has negotiated.

Edited by calzonesays, 25 February 2013 - 01:47 AM.





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