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Creating A DynastyHow To Handle Early Success and Perpetuate Dynasty Dominance


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#1 pikerbkb

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:51 PM

Going to open up and be a little vulnerable here so bear with me.

In my 3rd year of playing Dynasty football I won my league...barely...by like 6 points. I had a very good team (see sig block below), but I had some of the worst point production in my 2 post-season wins. I almost feel like I did not deserve to win the league if that makes any sense, but I know that luck has a lot to do winning a league.

Anyway, kind of in a weird spot right now. I feel great about winning the league. Since I won in my 3rd season I feel like I am "playing with house money" (for all you Vegas guys out there) since the winnings from this past season have paid for the last 3 and will cover the next 5 seasons. Obviously, I am not satisfied and would like to continue winning/contending.

I want to hear the straight dope from some other dynasty guys out there cause I want to try and build on the success I have had

-Am I not giving my team/myself enough credit?
-Am I thinking my team is better than it is?
-What should I do to make my team better for the long haul?
-Should I overpay to land premium player/draft picks to fortify key positions?
-Should I just kind of stay pat and let my star prospects develop and just continue to build through FA and the rookie draft? (I only have 2nd round picks this season)

Long post I know, but hopefully I can get some responses or better yet, start a long thread on the topic.

Edited by pikerbkb, 25 February 2013 - 01:52 PM.

Tom Brady
Arian Foster
Stevan Ridley
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy
Ben Tate
Da'Dick Rodgers
Josh Gordon
Marcus Wheaton
Nuk
Ladarius Green



Dynasty non-ppr
12 Team
24 player roster
No position limits

#2 slaughterrt

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:09 PM

Your team:
Tom Brady
Arian Foster
Stevan Ridley
Eric Decker
Danario Alexander

Bench/Flex: Leshoure, Ryan Mathews, Dujuan Harris, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffrey, Chris Givens, Ben Tate, Bryce Brown, Alex Green, Brandon Bolden, Dwayne Allen, Taylor Thompson
_______________________
I am a dynasty vet of several years...currently playing in 3 dynasty leagues...a 10 team idp, a 12 team idp and a 14 team idp. I absolutely love playing in dynasty formats because of the additional planning and strategy. Not to mention you are pretty much planning and researching year round. I won the 10 team idp, but barely (made it to the champ game by less than a point). My season record was only 7-6 and made the 4th seed luckily. I also took home the 14 teamer, but a little more convincingly. Had a 9-4 record and was second best record in league. Thank you Adrian Peterson. However, arguably my best team finished 8th of 12 (have Doug Martin, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall).

The moral of the story is that you can win a championship with or without a bunch of studs. You don't need a top 5 at every position. In fact you can end up 8th of 12 with a top 5 RB and 2 top 5 WRs. It is all about finishing strong, and hoping your team gets hot at the right time. There is researching and planning involved...and there is luck involved as well. Best you can do is set your line up and hope for the est sometimes. It is up to the fantasy gods.

Here is my analysis

Tom Brady will easily be top 5 QB for another few years, but it is never too early to be planning for the future. A young gun like Andrew Luck or RG3 might be too hard to get, but maybe a Russell Wilson or Colin Kaep would be more realistic. Keep a lookout on waivers or the trade block for low risk, high upside young QB to prepare for the future. Now is the time to take a chance and roster one since you wont need to start him. I did this in my 10 team dynasty. I have Aaron Rodgers but I picked up Russell Wilson off waivers early on, and now I have either a great backup or trade bait.

Your RB situation looks good as well. Foster is top 3 RB...very good chance of being top RB. Ridley and Leshoure are solid number 2 / flex guys. Mathews will be alright if healthy. You also have quality depth and good handcuffs. You have a good stable of young guys. Let them develop. Personally I would try to trade Mathews, but I could see the flip side of holding on to him as well.

WR is your weakest position in my opinion. Decker and DAX are good WR2/3 guys, but neither jump out as a number 1 guy. You also have quality depth/developmental guys in Jeffrey and Gordon. While your other stronger positions may make up for your WRs, it couldn't hurt to look around and maybe package some of your depth for a more productive WR. Or maybe throw in a rookie draft pick with your depth for a trade. Or target a WR in the draft. It is hard to say since WR is so deep, you could easily trade some of your depth away and replenish it through FA.

TE I am not sure about. If Allen is your starter, then I think you may need to look somewhere else. He played well when he the other Indy TE was out, but I am not sure how their TE roles will end up. That being said, starting Allen is too risky for me. There are other options out there in FA and possibly rookie draft.  

Overall you have a solid core of young guys. My opinion is to grab a backup QB and TE, and try to land another WR. Trade depth if necessary to get these guys, but do not overpay. The only position I would consider overpaying for is if you were landing a top 10 WR. You have seen what your team can do. Now the hardest thing is repeating. Improve your team through trade and draft, but don't cripple your team in the process. Feel free to post trade offers here for opinions.
10 Team IDP Dynasty League (non ppr)
QB Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson
RB Alfred Morris, Daryl Richardson, Danny Woodhead, Joique Bell
WR James Jones, Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Percy Harvin, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon, Danny Amendola
TE Aaron Hernandez, Kyle Rudolph
LB Daryl Washington, Wesley Woodyard, Mason Foster
DL J.J. Watt, Michael Johnson
DB Harrison Smith, Janoris Jenkins, Tim Jennings
K Blair Walsh

14 Team PPR Dynasty
QB Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, Tim Tebow
RB LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Mikel Leshoure, Daryl Richardson, Bilal Powell
WR Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Rod Streater, Julian Edelman
TE Aaron Hernandez, Dwayne Allen
DL Haloti Ngata, Julius Peppers, Carlos Dunlap, Matt Shaughnessy, CJ Mosley
LB James Laurinaitis, Chase Blackburn, Anthony Spencer, Perry Riley, Jameel Mcclain
DB Casey Hayward, Patrick Peterson, Morgan Burnett, Craig Dahl, Stephon Gilmore, Tavon Wilson
K Justin Tucker, Bal K

#3 Bandito

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 10:13 AM

View Postslaughterrt, on 26 February 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

Overall you have a solid core of young guys. My opinion is to grab a backup QB and TE, and try to land another WR. Trade depth if necessary to get these guys, but do not overpay. The only position I would consider overpaying for is if you were landing a top 10 WR.

This pretty much sums it up for me as well.

Overall, I wouldn't have a lot of concern about anything since fantasy is unpredictable.  I've pretty much had my roster together for four years now.  On paper, it SHOULD be a good team.  But I haven't sniffed anything with this roster, and this year finished in the middle of the pack.  So don't worry yourself wondering if you are "good enough".  Just enjoy the trophy.  I wish I could! ;)

Your team is really solid.  Just keep tinkering around the edges to find the improvements you can.  And if you nail one more WR, you  are in great shape.
10 team Roto 7X7
OBP, R, HR, RBI, SB, PA, XBH
W, Sv, K, ERA, IP, QS, GIDP

C- Rosario, 1B- Goldschmidt, 2B- Kipnis, SS- ECabrera, 3B- Encarnacion (1B/3B)
CI- Ortiz, MI- Miller (2B/SS), OF- Bautista, Werth, Crisp, U- Hosmer
bench- Soriano, Hardy

SP- ASanchez, Gio Gonzalez, Shields, Cingrani, AWood, Masterson
RP- Holland, Cishek, KRod, Soria, Santos

DL- Chapman, Profar (2B/SS/3B)

#4 Ribobizert

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:11 AM

-Am I not giving my team/myself enough credit?

your team is designed to win right now and not so much in future years.  You feel like your playing with house money, which btw is never a good call when playing poker as "house money" is in actuality the same as your money.  You did a great job putting effort into obtaining your winnings/roster so don't squander it or get crazzzy just cause you can.  But i get you on your profitability #s, being set for entry fees in the future, and holding bragging rights.  I would think about trading several of your key pieces for younger promising players.



-What should I do to make my team better for the long haul?

I think you should shop Decker and Ridley, they are prime candidates to be flash in the pans and you should capitalize on their great seasons as i don't see either maintaining their current fantasy #s for years to come.  

I believe decker is a good but not great his fantasy #s are tied to peyton and who knows how much longer he will play.  Demaryius is a beast and clearly their best WR and he is athletic/big enough to beat double teams- so decker will always play second fiddle to him.  he was a TD monster this yr and unfortunately for you that is the most unpredictable of fantasy stats. i don't imagine decker ever achieving those #s without an elite QB.  time is ticking on his fantasy value imo.

Ridley's long term value scares me.  I was fortunate enough to have him as one of my undervalued guys going into last yrs drafts and got him on many teams.  But despite his total season #s being great, i was constantly on the fence/checking matchups to decide whether to start him in many of my teams.....basically despite his overall rank i really didn't feel to safe starting him. Bill usually goes rbbc and plays the hot hand in fact he did it this season but due to a perfect storm of injuries and ridleys good play he was sort of the feature back.  you have bolden, do you remember at times last season when it seemed like he might overtake ridley?  i don't trust ridleys long term value with a healthier backfield cast and bill's track record for not featuring one RB. Plus if you trade Ridley you have bolden, who at some point could overtake ridley in the future.

Speaking of the Pats it might be time to think about shipping Brady.  Lets be honest, Brady's time is running out and people even dynasty leagues still view him as ultra elite. Dynasty leagues are about the future more so than the right now of regular leagues- its like the stock market's cliche "buy low, sell high." Brady's output is high but can it get higher? at what point does it start going down?when does he retire?  Obviously don't trade him on the cheap but if you could get an upcoming QB and RB/WR, i wouldn't be opposed.  See what happens with welker/lloyd and what the pats do in the offseason to shore up their WRs.  it's not crazy to shop him and make a deal if the price is right....errr very high.

-Should I just kind of stay pat and let my star prospects develop and just continue to build through FA and the rookie draft? (I only have 2nd round picks this season)

I really like your WR youth: between Gordon, Givens, and possibly Jeffrey- at least one of them should develop into a star over time. danario is already a stud assuming he's past his numerous leg injuries.

your RBs: I like bryce brown a lot, who knows what the future holds for that guy as he will most likely either pass up mccoy, force a nice decent time share for himself, or best case scenario be traded to a team where he could start.  I would hold on to mathews and pray for a come back, his value is at an all time low so why sell him now?  considering the new coaching regime and the unlikelihood of ronnie brown and jackie battle?? (dont feel like looking up to make sure who his aging counterparts are) being threats to him- he might bounce back....how many times can you break your collarbone?

draft a TE: pass catching TE's are the craze in the NFL these days and college's will continue to spit out these new athletes...so unless someone wants to part with jimmy graham or gronk on the cheap there's no need to trade for one.  supposedly Tyler Eifert is the bomb.com being more athletic than all other TEs in this yrs draft and has a great college track record.

i'd focus on RBs in the draft as they are such a valuable commodity these days and play the FA carousel with WR's as someone like danario always seems to emerge

i know this response is lengthy but you asked for it, hope this helps you out.  BTW i'd love to hear someone else's long term outlooks on decker and Ridley, especially if you disagree as it's always good to listen to others opinions as no one is ever right all the time, except my mother...

#5 pikerbkb

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:59 PM

View Postslaughterrt, on 26 February 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

Your team:
Tom Brady
Arian Foster
Stevan Ridley
Eric Decker
Danario Alexander

Bench/Flex: Leshoure, Ryan Mathews, Dujuan Harris, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffrey, Chris Givens, Ben Tate, Bryce Brown, Alex Green, Brandon Bolden, Dwayne Allen, Taylor Thompson
_______________________
I am a dynasty vet of several years...currently playing in 3 dynasty leagues...a 10 team idp, a 12 team idp and a 14 team idp. I absolutely love playing in dynasty formats because of the additional planning and strategy. Not to mention you are pretty much planning and researching year round. I won the 10 team idp, but barely (made it to the champ game by less than a point). My season record was only 7-6 and made the 4th seed luckily. I also took home the 14 teamer, but a little more convincingly. Had a 9-4 record and was second best record in league. Thank you Adrian Peterson. However, arguably my best team finished 8th of 12 (have Doug Martin, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall).

The moral of the story is that you can win a championship with or without a bunch of studs. You don't need a top 5 at every position. In fact you can end up 8th of 12 with a top 5 RB and 2 top 5 WRs. It is all about finishing strong, and hoping your team gets hot at the right time. There is researching and planning involved...and there is luck involved as well. Best you can do is set your line up and hope for the est sometimes. It is up to the fantasy gods.

Here is my analysis

Tom Brady will easily be top 5 QB for another few years, but it is never too early to be planning for the future. A young gun like Andrew Luck or RG3 might be too hard to get, but maybe a Russell Wilson or Colin Kaep would be more realistic. Keep a lookout on waivers or the trade block for low risk, high upside young QB to prepare for the future. Now is the time to take a chance and roster one since you wont need to start him. I did this in my 10 team dynasty. I have Aaron Rodgers but I picked up Russell Wilson off waivers early on, and now I have either a great backup or trade bait.

Your RB situation looks good as well. Foster is top 3 RB...very good chance of being top RB. Ridley and Leshoure are solid number 2 / flex guys. Mathews will be alright if healthy. You also have quality depth and good handcuffs. You have a good stable of young guys. Let them develop. Personally I would try to trade Mathews, but I could see the flip side of holding on to him as well.

WR is your weakest position in my opinion. Decker and DAX are good WR2/3 guys, but neither jump out as a number 1 guy. You also have quality depth/developmental guys in Jeffrey and Gordon. While your other stronger positions may make up for your WRs, it couldn't hurt to look around and maybe package some of your depth for a more productive WR. Or maybe throw in a rookie draft pick with your depth for a trade. Or target a WR in the draft. It is hard to say since WR is so deep, you could easily trade some of your depth away and replenish it through FA.

TE I am not sure about. If Allen is your starter, then I think you may need to look somewhere else. He played well when he the other Indy TE was out, but I am not sure how their TE roles will end up. That being said, starting Allen is too risky for me. There are other options out there in FA and possibly rookie draft.  

Overall you have a solid core of young guys. My opinion is to grab a backup QB and TE, and try to land another WR. Trade depth if necessary to get these guys, but do not overpay. The only position I would consider overpaying for is if you were landing a top 10 WR. You have seen what your team can do. Now the hardest thing is repeating. Improve your team through trade and draft, but don't cripple your team in the process. Feel free to post trade offers here for opinions.
Very astute observations. I am hoping that Pryor or Weeden develop into starters. but I may need to trade to obtain an elite prospect at QB. Foster will be hard to replace too unless Tate simply overtakes him (if he isn't traded or signs elsewhere next season). WRs and TEs are a lower priority since this league is a non-ppr. I would like to upgrade at TE, but I won't trade for a big name so it will have to be through FA/WW./draft.
Tom Brady
Arian Foster
Stevan Ridley
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy
Ben Tate
Da'Dick Rodgers
Josh Gordon
Marcus Wheaton
Nuk
Ladarius Green



Dynasty non-ppr
12 Team
24 player roster
No position limits

#6 pikerbkb

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:21 PM

View PostRibobizert, on 07 March 2013 - 03:11 AM, said:

-Am I not giving my team/myself enough credit?your team is designed to win right now and not so much in future years.  You feel like your playing with house money, which btw is never a good call when playing poker as "house money" is in actuality the same as your money.  You did a great job putting effort into obtaining your winnings/roster so don't squander it or get crazzzy just cause you can.  But i get you on your profitability #s, being set for entry fees in the future, and holding bragging rights.  I would think about trading several of your key pieces for younger promising players.-What should I do to make my team better for the long haul?I think you should shop Decker and Ridley, they are prime candidates to be flash in the pans and you should capitalize on their great seasons as i don't see either maintaining their current fantasy #s for years to come.  I believe decker is a good but not great his fantasy #s are tied to peyton and who knows how much longer he will play.  Demaryius is a beast and clearly their best WR and he is athletic/big enough to beat double teams- so decker will always play second fiddle to him.  he was a TD monster this yr and unfortunately for you that is the most unpredictable of fantasy stats. i don't imagine decker ever achieving those #s without an elite QB.  time is ticking on his fantasy value imo.Ridley's long term value scares me.  I was fortunate enough to have him as one of my undervalued guys going into last yrs drafts and got him on many teams.  But despite his total season #s being great, i was constantly on the fence/checking matchups to decide whether to start him in many of my teams.....basically despite his overall rank i really didn't feel to safe starting him. Bill usually goes rbbc and plays the hot hand in fact he did it this season but due to a perfect storm of injuries and ridleys good play he was sort of the feature back.  you have bolden, do you remember at times last season when it seemed like he might overtake ridley?  i don't trust ridleys long term value with a healthier backfield cast and bill's track record for not featuring one RB. Plus if you trade Ridley you have bolden, who at some point could overtake ridley in the future.Speaking of the Pats it might be time to think about shipping Brady.  Lets be honest, Brady's time is running out and people even dynasty leagues still view him as ultra elite. Dynasty leagues are about the future more so than the right now of regular leagues- its like the stock market's cliche "buy low, sell high." Brady's output is high but can it get higher? at what point does it start going down?when does he retire?  Obviously don't trade him on the cheap but if you could get an upcoming QB and RB/WR, i wouldn't be opposed.  See what happens with welker/lloyd and what the pats do in the offseason to shore up their WRs.  it's not crazy to shop him and make a deal if the price is right....errr very high.-Should I just kind of stay pat and let my star prospects develop and just continue to build through FA and the rookie draft? (I only have 2nd round picks this season)I really like your WR youth: between Gordon, Givens, and possibly Jeffrey- at least one of them should develop into a star over time. danario is already a stud assuming he's past his numerous leg injuries.your RBs: I like bryce brown a lot, who knows what the future holds for that guy as he will most likely either pass up mccoy, force a nice decent time share for himself, or best case scenario be traded to a team where he could start.  I would hold on to mathews and pray for a come back, his value is at an all time low so why sell him now?  considering the new coaching regime and the unlikelihood of ronnie brown and jackie battle?? (dont feel like looking up to make sure who his aging counterparts are) being threats to him- he might bounce back....how many times can you break your collarbone?draft a TE: pass catching TE's are the craze in the NFL these days and college's will continue to spit out these new athletes...so unless someone wants to part with jimmy graham or gronk on the cheap there's no need to trade for one.  supposedly Tyler Eifert is the bomb.com being more athletic than all other TEs in this yrs draft and has a great college track record.i'd focus on RBs in the draft as they are such a valuable commodity these days and play the FA carousel with WR's as someone like danario always seems to emergei know this response is lengthy but you asked for it, hope this helps you out.  BTW i'd love to hear someone else's long term outlooks on decker and Ridley, especially if you disagree as it's always good to listen to others opinions as no one is ever right all the time, except my mother...
Some interesting takes on future moves. I am always focused on RBs overall. I figure if I can get another stud producer like Foster, it would be very difficult to beat me.....unless somebody just made me a silly offer for Brady not sure I could trade him. I think I am poised to contend for the next 2-3 seasons at least with some minor tweaks and some luck.....I already have someone with some high draft picks this year who wants Mathews. He does have the 1.01 as well and if Lacy lands in an instant 3D role I might overpay to get him.....I will try to get a TE in FA/WW/draft. Taylor Thompson has a shot to be something now that Cook has left for STL. I am probably going to scoop up Adrien Robinson as well.I value Decker and Ridley more than you I guess. Before the emergence of DT, Decker was showing some good things and that was with TEBOW throwing to him. He is big, fast, has good hands and runs precise routes. That type of receiver never goes out of style.....I think Ridley is a keeper in dynasty. He just needs to clean up his fumbles and improve in the passing game a little. The guy is a stud, runs angry, has excellent burst. That said, he does run for Bill, so you never know. Bill will always do what is best for the team and what the gameplan dictates. That means using Vereen more if the power running game is not working. And I do see Bolden pushing for more carries too, that is why I grabbed him. But in the long run, especially if Ridley moves on to another team, he will be a highly productive runner.

Edited by pikerbkb, 18 March 2013 - 01:24 PM.

Tom Brady
Arian Foster
Stevan Ridley
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy
Ben Tate
Da'Dick Rodgers
Josh Gordon
Marcus Wheaton
Nuk
Ladarius Green



Dynasty non-ppr
12 Team
24 player roster
No position limits

#7 Ribobizert

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 02:18 PM

good takes on Ridley and Decker, I'm on board with your thoughts on them as great players- I just doubt their long term value.  I see them as guys who are great sell high candidates as they have the talent to continue to put up stats I just doubt how much better those stats can get.  I place a high value on long term outlook in dynasty/keeper leagues, perhaps too much.

If Lacy or some other RB end up on a team that will use him off the bat, definitely not opposed to shipping Mathews for the draft picks.  He is nearing DMC in risk/reward territory, but has a lower ceiling.

#8 pikerbkb

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 05:02 PM

View PostRibobizert, on 18 March 2013 - 02:18 PM, said:

good takes on Ridley and Decker, I'm on board with your thoughts on them as great players- I just doubt their long term value.  I see them as guys who are great sell high candidates as they have the talent to continue to put up stats I just doubt how much better those stats can get.  I place a high value on long term outlook in dynasty/keeper leagues, perhaps too much.

If Lacy or some other RB end up on a team that will use him off the bat, definitely not opposed to shipping Mathews for the draft picks.  He is nearing DMC in risk/reward territory, but has a lower ceiling.
I see your point about upside and I cannot argue. Decker and Ridley are probably at or close to their ceiling, but I believe they are some of the most consistent players at their positions. Ridley is when he is actually in the gameplan and that is most of the time. Ridley is also the most highly paid RB on the roster(?) so they want him to get the ball amap. These are guys I call "core+", they are reliable, consistent and are capable of big days. They have limited ceilings, but you can count on them most weeks for good production. Team them up with a Brady/Foster who are truly high floor/high ceiling players and week to week I am tough to beat!
Tom Brady
Arian Foster
Stevan Ridley
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy
Ben Tate
Da'Dick Rodgers
Josh Gordon
Marcus Wheaton
Nuk
Ladarius Green



Dynasty non-ppr
12 Team
24 player roster
No position limits