21 replies to this topic

[exm]

So I was asked to take over a team in a league with these settings:
12 players H2H
12 keepers, unlimited
5th year

The team ended dead last the previous season but somehow traded (?) away their first round pick. Here are the draft picks of this team:
1st - 5
2nd - 8
3rd - 5
4th - none
5th - none
6th - 8
7th - 5
8th - 8
9th - 5
10th - 8
11th - 5
12th - 7
13th - 1,9,10

These are the best keepers I could come up with:
Edwin Encarnación
Curtis Granderson
Allen Craig
Chase Headley
Ben Zobrist
Álex Ríos
Adam LaRoche
Adam Dunn
A.J. Pierzynski
Matt Garza
Matt Harvey
Wade Miley

Just to give you an idea about other keepers from other teams:
Team 1: Votto, Holliday, Kemp, Weaver, Grienke
Team 2: Cano, Pujols, Stanton, Troy, Verlander
Team 3: M Cabrera, Reyes, Wright, Kinsler, Lee, CC, Halladay
Team 4: Price, Chapman, Medlen, Hamilton, Cespedes, Machado
Team 5: Bautista, Ortiz, Prado Melky, Willingham, Gio, Kimbrel, Frieri
Team 6: Fielder, J Upton, Tex, Pablo, HRam, Cueto, Hamels
Team 7: Longo, Cargo, Gallardo, Myers, Profar, Konerko
Team 8: Strasburg, Kershaw, Pedroia, McCutchen, Beltre, Morse
Team 9: Harper, Hosmer, BJ Upton, Bumgarner, RA, Teheran, J Zimm
Team 10: Trout, Ryan Z, Ellsbury, King Felix, Castro
Team 11: Goldsmidt, Posey, Trumbo, Cain, Samardzija, Weaver

So... There's not a first or a second rounder on my team, I don't even have the first draft pick and am losing round 4,5. Because there are so many keepers, the 2013 elite prospects are already taken. I asked the league to reconsider my draft picks or number of keepers, to no luck.

Any hope? What would be your strategy besides say 'buh bye'? I want to make it work, but no decent draft picks + no good prospects = what the hell?

[tphilipo]

Even Jeff Luhnow is in a better position than you.

[RespectMyAuthority]

Prospects are overrated in any 12-keeper format.  You need players in the top 12-rounds, not someone who may or may not do something for you in 3 years time.

Agree it's not an ideal roster, but there's some pieces to work with.  I'd kinda go the other way and target some older players at value, then try to flip them during the year for better younger keepers/draft picks.

[jb_power]

if it's a "free" league or you have money burning your pocket ... minimum of 3 years to rebuild

[DropkickAlex]

Yeah what I'd do is pick up some top prospects that are going to contribute soon and later. If they get hot people pay a premium for them. I got a killer return on Jay Bruce the year he came up in my Dynasty League.

[exm]

RespectMyAuthority, on 27 February 2013 - 03:11 PM, said:

Prospects are overrated in any 12-keeper format.  You need players in the top 12-rounds, not someone who may or may not do something for you in 3 years time.

Agree it's not an ideal roster, but there's some pieces to work with.  I'd kinda go the other way and target some older players at value, then try to flip them during the year for better younger keepers/draft picks.

I was considering the same thing. Flipping E5 and maybe Grandy for some high value picks. But I'm just really pissed off that the managers won't even consider giving back some of the draft picks for such a crappy team. Apparently this guy traded away his #1 pick for A-Rod last year. Seriously?

DropkickAlex, on 27 February 2013 - 03:18 PM, said:

Yeah what I'd do is pick up some top prospects that are going to contribute soon and later. If they get hot people pay a premium for them. I got a killer return on Jay Bruce the year he came up in my Dynasty League.

The problem is that all 2013 top prospects are already taken, and with so many keepers there's no way they'll be thrown back. I'm talking:
Hamilton, Billy
Profar, Jurickson
Bundy, Dylan
Taveras, Oscar
Myers, Wil
Sano, Miguel
Cole, Gerrit
Walker, Taijuan
Bauer, Trevor
Taillon, Jameson

[RespectMyAuthority]

I think keeping half those guys in 12-player keeper formats is ludicrous.  The only guys I'd even consider keeping from that list are Wil Myers, Taveras and maybe Hamilton.  Profar is like a 20th+ rounder in 12-team formats, the Keeper doesn't make him 10+ rounds better, no where near enough of a hitter to be valuable for a few more years, he'll be in the pros soon because of his glove, but you aren't gonna want his bat in your fantasy lineup for at least another season and a half.

[DropkickAlex]

If it's an ESPN league do you mind posting the link? I can scan the pool to see what prospects are available.

[CrypTviLL]

You're in a rough situation. Personally, I'd walk away.

But... if you are looking to stick it out, and they still won't give you a first rounder, then you might as well kiss this season good bye and start working on players that you can trade at the break for picks or future keepers.

I don't even know who to keep out of that.. Headley for sure, and edwin. Others? Bah..

[exm]

CrypTviLL, on 27 February 2013 - 04:26 PM, said:

You're in a rough situation. Personally, I'd walk away.

But... if you are looking to stick it out, and they still won't give you a first rounder, then you might as well kiss this season good bye and start working on players that you can trade at the break for picks or future keepers.

I don't even know who to keep out of that.. Headley for sure, and edwin. Others? Bah..

Yes, the only decent keepers are: Edwin Encarnación, Curtis Granderson, Allen Craig, Chase Headley, Ben Zobrist, Matt Harvey, Wade Miley and maybe Matt Garza, Adam LaRoche. But no top 30 material.

I'm not a quitter though, but this is kind of depressing.

RespectMyAuthority, on 27 February 2013 - 03:31 PM, said:

I think keeping half those guys in 12-player keeper formats is ludicrous.  The only guys I'd even consider keeping from that list are Wil Myers, Taveras and maybe Hamilton.  Profar is like a 20th+ rounder in 12-team formats, the Keeper doesn't make him 10+ rounds better, no where near enough of a hitter to be valuable for a few more years, he'll be in the pros soon because of his glove, but you aren't gonna want his bat in your fantasy lineup for at least another season and a half.

kickAlex' timestamp='1362000028' post='3360504']
If it's an ESPN league do you mind posting the link? I can scan the pool to see what prospects are available.

Thanks for the above. It's a Yahoo league and my strategy to save this team is to build a solid foundation around the younger players I listed above. Maybe I can package E5 and LaRoche for a Bryce Harper or something to that extend.

[parrothead]

exm, on 27 February 2013 - 04:49 PM, said:

CrypTviLL, on 27 February 2013 - 04:26 PM, said:

You're in a rough situation. Personally, I'd walk away.

But... if you are looking to stick it out, and they still won't give you a first rounder, then you might as well kiss this season good bye and start working on players that you can trade at the break for picks or future keepers.

I don't even know who to keep out of that.. Headley for sure, and edwin. Others? Bah..

Yes, the only decent keepers are: Edwin Encarnación, Curtis Granderson, Allen Craig, Chase Headley, Ben Zobrist, Matt Harvey, Wade Miley and maybe Matt Garza, Adam LaRoche. But no top 30 material.

I'm not a quitter though, but this is kind of depressing.

RespectMyAuthority, on 27 February 2013 - 03:31 PM, said:

I think keeping half those guys in 12-player keeper formats is ludicrous.  The only guys I'd even consider keeping from that list are Wil Myers, Taveras and maybe Hamilton.  Profar is like a 20th+ rounder in 12-team formats, the Keeper doesn't make him 10+ rounds better, no where near enough of a hitter to be valuable for a few more years, he'll be in the pros soon because of his glove, but you aren't gonna want his bat in your fantasy lineup for at least another season and a half.

kickAlex' timestamp='1362000028' post='3360504']
If it's an ESPN league do you mind posting the link? I can scan the pool to see what prospects are available.

Thanks for the above. It's a Yahoo league and my strategy to save this team is to build a solid foundation around the younger players I listed above. Maybe I can package E5 and LaRoche for a Bryce Harper or something to that extend.

Your not going to get Bryce Harper, Im sure whoever has him is mancrushing him, and I see many players on this list as RMA noted that probably shouldnt even be rostered in a 2013 12-team league.

You kind of have the "moneyball" team and I what I mean is that there is a line in that movie where the Beane assistant GM hybrid character says "Players are overlooked or undervalued for a variety of reasons" - age, appearance, etc.  Fantasy value is no different, and you have a lot of guys who could turn out very good but are overlooked or undervalued because they are a lot of regression candidates.

Alex Rios - How many guys last year went .300 20 90 20 90?  I think three...Rios, Braun and McCutchen.  He has been so up and down that most are expecting major regression and dont trust him.  But lets see if happen first.

Chase Headley - 5 category potential contributor at 3B?  How many of those are out there?  Not many.  Is he going to put up 2012, probably not, is he gonna perhaps lead 3B in steals?  Maybe.  Could he be a solid contributor across the board at a position that is rare?  absolutely.

Ben Zobrist - I think one of the most undervalued players in fantasy, right now he is eligible at 2B and SS, giving you flex in the draft and this is a guy who bested Jose Reyes in 3 of 5 categories including runs last year.

Granderson - again extremely undervalued because of batting average but he is the only player the last two years to go 40HR with 100RBI and 100 Runs.  People worry too much about his average.  Obviously injury sucks, but dont sweat it, he will still up up better numbers than say a Hunter Pence or maybe even Bryce Harper despite missing a month.

LaRoche and E5 Combined to hit 15 more Home runs than Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols combined to hit.

Despite horrible average, Adam Dunn hit 40+ HR and oh by the way, scored more runs than Pujols Fielder Votto goldschmit Butler Adrian Gonzales and Mark Trumbo.

There is a lot here to like based on 2013 numbers...I would make a run with this team and it seems a lot of people in your league based on some of the "rookies" they have are the classic fantasy owners who are putting too much emphasis on being a dynasty three years from now than winning a championship this year, and you can take advantage of that.

[The Big Bat Theory]

It doesn't look like that bad a bunch of keepers to me and with only 12 kept from everyone have you gone through and seen what the other owners are throwing away.  The more loaded the team, the more gems they have to toss back in.  I'm in a 12 team, 12 keeper league and made a list of what would be throwbacks and it was an amazing goldmine.

And you only listed the other teams best 5 to 7 players, not all 12.  Lists would look a lot different if you listed them all side by side with you I imagine.  I mean aside from Harper, I like your keepers better overall than Team 9's top half of their twelve keepers.

Just look at the so called "best" of some of these other team's twelve even leaving out their botton half keepers.  Two of the "better half" of the twelve for Team 5 are RP and Melky is coming off his meds so their remaining 12 must be pretty weak in position players.  Team 7 has Cargo, an injury prone "star" 3B, an aging 1B , a pitcher who disappointed last season and some prospects as the cream of their twelve.

I think you may be more reacting to the "big name syndrome" in your stage of ownership but once you settle in you will realize you have a pretty darn goood foundation there.

Also I never worry about pitching to way later in a regular draft and you have 3 decent starters at the get go.  Just fish early and often in the FA pool and you should be fine.  All it takes is one major injury to a star player or an ace having an "off season" to bring some of those "big name" teams down to earth earth quickly too.  Good luck with your team.  It looks like a darn good one to me.

[exm]

Thanks!

[An Old Hippie]

Team isn't that bad. I've taken over way worse

What hurts the most though is the loss of draft picks.

[Ben Edelman]

Keep-forever leagues are awful for exactly this reason.

Honestly, I would try to dump your team now and rebuild.  Go fast and furious with young players -- trade E5 for Taveras and Bundy.  Trade Granderson for Profar.  Trade Dunn for a tier 2 prospect like Gyorko.  Build around Headley, Craig, Harvey plus 3-5 players you pick up in trade.

If you throw in the towel now, you can really build strong for 2014.  If you wait until July to throw in the towel, you won't get nearly as much value back as if you trade them earlier.

[exm]

Ben Edelman, on 28 February 2013 - 04:30 PM, said:

Keep-forever leagues are awful for exactly this reason.

Honestly, I would try to dump your team now and rebuild.  Go fast and furious with young players -- trade E5 for Taveras and Bundy.  Trade Granderson for Profar.  Trade Dunn for a tier 2 prospect like Gyorko.  Build around Headley, Craig, Harvey plus 3-5 players you pick up in trade.

If you throw in the towel now, you can really build strong for 2014.  If you wait until July to throw in the towel, you won't get nearly as much value back as if you trade them earlier.

Thanks and agreed. I already got offered Sale+Beltre for Headley+Craig. While that's not an unreasonable deal I would be interested in Sale, but not in Beltre since he's past his prime. Would it be worth to chase Sale?

[CrypTviLL]

You could do that trade and flip Beltre for something nice.

[parrothead]

CrypTviLL, on 28 February 2013 - 07:29 PM, said:

You could do that trade and flip Beltre for something nice.

Agreed.  Beltre if he is putting up another monster year in Texas, will fetch you something nice.  If Headley regresses, he will fetch you little to nothing.

Do that trade now, its a nice step.  Honestly its better NOW and in the future.  Sale is 200K potential ace who can be a staff anchor or a really good 1B 1C type if you have a little subcommittee at the top of your rotation that are like the 5-15 ranked starting pitchers.

[parrothead]

Ben Edelman, on 28 February 2013 - 04:30 PM, said:

Keep-forever leagues are awful for exactly this reason.

Honestly, I would try to dump your team now and rebuild.  Go fast and furious with young players -- trade E5 for Taveras and Bundy.  Trade Granderson for Profar.  Trade Dunn for a tier 2 prospect like Gyorko.  Build around Headley, Craig, Harvey plus 3-5 players you pick up in trade.

If you throw in the towel now, you can really build strong for 2014.  If you wait until July to throw in the towel, you won't get nearly as much value back as if you trade them earlier.

The bold statement is 100%...if you do plan on rebuilding, recognize that as your plan from Day 1 and you should be trying to acquire STUDS you can flip for great keepers and upside potential great keepers in your draft and honestly sometimes those guys emerge faster than you think and you end up contending now with a crapload of bullets to fire in acquiring studs now.

[uspsjeter2]

You got your hands full for sure. I like the total rebuild don't think until 2014 approach.
There's a site called TheDynastyGuru.com, it's run by a guy from Baseball Prospectus who specializes in Dynasty formats. He wrote like a mini-novel about doing exactly what you're facing, and he did it while he was actually rebuilding a team last year, so I hear it's kind of real-time. I'm sorry I haven't read it yet, I've been prepping for redrafts. Anyways, it's free and if you check it out, you might have a better idea about being on board for the long haul with your newly acquired squad. Hope this helps!