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David Murphy 2013 OutlookLooking at increased playing time and coming off of a career year, wil


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#1 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 05:58 PM

An early trend I have noticed is David Murphy going undrafted in a lot of standard 5x5 mock drafts. I'm not quite sure why...

3 years straight now, he has had 10+ HR and 10+ SB, with an OPS over .800 in two of those seasons (2011 sandwiched in between, he had some down numbers and finished with an OPS around .730 if I'm not mistaking) with at least 400+ AB in all 3 years....

With Hamilton out of the picture entirely, and Nelson Cruz a possible risk for suspension (you never know...), and *always* a risk for an injury (I would put his over/under at 120 games played, and no more than that-- if he suits up for 130 I would say that's a healthy year for Nelson Cruz), Murphy should see an uptick in playing time on those factors alone. Hamilton being gone should be reason enough to expect at about 100+ additional PA this year unless TEX acquires a big bat at some point. Murphy should be a lock to start every day in left and maybe spell a bit in center as well- where all they have is Craig Gentry, Leonys Martin, and Julio Borbon.....

His splits vs. lefties for his career are for concern, and he is best deployed vs. RHP only (until he shows his .340+ AVG and .840+ OPS vs LHP last year wasn't a fluke or rather a complete product of his BABIP vs. LHP, which inflated his numbers). So he is probably a better play in daily lineup leagues. But the fact of the matter is David Murphy is the Ranger's 2nd best outfielder right now, and they should still score runs. If he is getting regular at bats, he should be getting more attention. An argument could be made for Moreland if he were to play a corner position daily, but I am pretty sure he is starting at 1B. Even so, I think I like Murphy more than Moreland over 600 AB...


Any projections? I think a base of something like 14 HR/13 SB, 65 RBI, 60 R, .290/.375 would be fair. Maybe more RBI or more Runs depending on where he bats in the lineup. Maybe a higher average or more home runs depending on how he handles lefties this year. But I think he is a guy that could return decent value and there's a chance he's going to be on your wire when the draft ends....
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#2 Orion Braun

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 11:01 PM

Nice call-out here. MLBDepthCharts has him as the starting LF, hitting 6th, behind Cruz and ahead of Pierzynski, which is promising. That said, I can't realistically project much more than your base. He did, after all have 470+ PAs last year in 147 games. He's probably only going to see another 50-60 PAs with regular playing time... He did have a .333 BABIP last year, but he has a high LD% and his career is .317, so it's not that far from what we can expect in 2013. I don't see any reason to think he underperforms his 2012 numbers, given the increased chances.

Here is my semi-conservative projection, for what it's worth:

535AB/70R/17HR/78RBI/11SB - .288/.365/.455
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#3 iAugust

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 12:40 PM

He's really underrated. He's actually been a better hitter than teammate Ian Kinsler over the last 3 years, the only difference has been opportunities. A nice sleeper in deeper mixed leagues with the added PA's

#4 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:12 PM

View PostOrion Braun, on 27 February 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

Nice call-out here. MLBDepthCharts has him as the starting LF, hitting 6th, behind Cruz and ahead of Pierzynski, which is promising. That said, I can't realistically project much more than your base. He did, after all have 470+ PAs last year in 147 games. He's probably only going to see another 50-60 PAs with regular playing time... He did have a .333 BABIP last year, but he has a high LD% and his career is .317, so it's not that far from what we can expect in 2013. I don't see any reason to think he underperforms his 2012 numbers, given the increased chances.

Here is my semi-conservative projection, for what it's worth:

535AB/70R/17HR/78RBI/11SB - .288/.365/.455


One thing to take for account here..... Murhpy's BABIP vs. LHP last season? .433 ..... that is unsustainable and a lot of it is luck.

He has stated (since the beginning of last year) that he is working hard to improve against LHP and is only taking BP against lefties among other things. The numbers last year were much. much improved vs. LHP and over a full slate of AB or an extra 100 even, if he can even hit .300 with a .750 OPS against lefties, I'd be pleased... (last year I believe with the .433 BABIP, he hit .345 and had an OPS around .845 against LHP- both MUCH higher than his career averages).

I think your projection looks pretty good, though.
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#5 ssmarsh

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 04:44 AM

I've always thought he was undervalued.  He's a solid player and a good #3 or #4 fantasy OF, especially in AL only.
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#6 brockpapersizer

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 10:36 PM

I want.

Great late value pick in 5 OF leagues.
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.

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#7 djmax101

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 12:49 PM

He was money last year in daily leagues for a 5th outfield slot. Don't see why much would have changed. Not having Michael Young hitting right before or after him might actually increase his value this year, as Young was a black hole of production last year (which was sad, as Young was Texas for so long).
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#8 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 02:49 AM

Not meaning to bump an old thread, but then I noticed I had created it in the first place, so whatever...


To any Rangers fans out there, or anyone who has seen more of his at bats than I obviously have (I've caught one Rangers game to date... and didn't put much, if any stock into it, because it was their game vs. Houston on the 31st/opening day).

He is a guy I was very high on heading into this season... I thought he could hold great value as a #4 OF, or even creep up into the #3 OF tier if he had a nice enough season...

He is still getting at bats and playing time, which is encouraging and leads me to believe that the ball club and Ron Washington still firmly believe in his abilities, but his splits against lefties are *very* extreme, and he may just be over matched at the plate because of the full-time gig which means facing a whole lot more LHP than before. Maybe he's not meant for such an assignment? And maybe his struggles have started to attack him mentally and started to kill his confidence when he's in a decent spot to hit or even facing weak RHP. He is off to a terribly slow start, but was a guy I was really high on.

Has anyone seen any of his at bats? Is he pressing? Over matched at the plate?....
Does he perhaps look injured?

I don't know what to do with him right now, and I haven't had a chance to watch many Rangers games, so I wanted to bump this thread up. He was an early sleeper of mine, a big one, but he has failed badly so far. I know it's early and all, but that's kind of why I wouldn't mind some insight from people who have seen his at bats (because I only saw him hit on opening day like I said, which was a good two weeks ago now!).
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#9 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 03:13 AM

Oh yeah, I forgot the include some of the extreme LHP splits. True, he improved last season-- a little bit....

Over a 3-year period from 2010-2012, here are some splits....
vs. RHP: 139 R, 37 HR, 30 SB, & 146 RBI over 984 AB/1093 PA with a 297/.365/.477 triple slash and an OPS of .842.......
Pretty impressive given the fact he was in a platoon role for a good chunk of time over those three years. However, when you get to the other side of that platoon, and you look at the splits vs. LHP?...
...Not so good: 26 R, 1 HR, 5 SB, 26 RBI, over 296 AB/323 PA with a .270/.328/.338 triple slash and an OPS of .666 (that's kind of neat!...or not)...

So I'm just curious I guess if any Texas fans have some insight, or anyone who has caught more Rangers games than I obviously have.
Loved the guy heading into all of my drafts, had targeted him as a 3rd/4th or 5th (wildcard) outfielder in a lot of leagues.... but he's come out of the gate sputtering. I'm not sure if he's pressing or what, but it would be nice to hear from someone or get an opinion from anybody who has seen him play a couple of games and watched his at bats (perhaps a fellow owner with easier access to cable and Rangers games?... :D)

Also, ONE last thing worth nothing Murphy's splits vs. LHP DID improve dramatically last season. He had a triple slash of .347/.405/.440 with an .845 OPS. However, this was an extremely small sample size, and it came with an outrageously bloated .433 BABIP (vs. a .310 vs. RHP). To put it into perspective, Murphy's BABIP vs. LHP on his career is a modest .310, nowhere near .433.... point? He was making solid contact vs. lefties last season and putting it in the right place. It won't happen again, at least not at such a rate, so maybe I was a little hasty (along with others) to overvalue him knowing he had a full season of at bats on the horizon...

This being said, any insight from anyone else would be lovely. I'm still figuring my teams out and nowhere near making any moves, but I'm curious if his other owners have any thoughts (or any Rangers fans for that matter).
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#10 MorrisWells

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 06:56 AM

I have seen about 5 or 6 rangers games this year and as a Murphy owner I am not too concerned.
He is seeing and hitting the ball well, and he's not pressing... He's just been unlucky, lots of line drives and hard hit balls that have been caught by the defense.

He had some bad ABs (his first k vs. Felix and his first k vs Iwakuma) but overall he looked good.
I am confident he will turn it around, and today he has a good matchup vs. Maurer...

Edited by MorrisWells, 14 April 2013 - 06:57 AM.


#11 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 17 April 2013 - 01:58 AM

View PostMorrisWells, on 14 April 2013 - 06:56 AM, said:

I have seen about 5 or 6 rangers games this year and as a Murphy owner I am not too concerned.
He is seeing and hitting the ball well, and he's not pressing... He's just been unlucky, lots of line drives and hard hit balls that have been caught by the defense.

He had some bad ABs (his first k vs. Felix and his first k vs Iwakuma) but overall he looked good.
I am confident he will turn it around, and today he has a good matchup vs. Maurer...


I appreciate the insight more than you'll ever know, thank you very much.... if there's ever a topic made by you in the BC forum I catch, I'll be sure to chime in and try to help out.

I have Murphy on a lot of my teams, I was (and still am, just a little less) a big believer in him putting in say, a .285/360/.470 line or something like that, give or take a few from each part of the triple-slash. I am not looking at the prediction I made above, but going off of what I remember I expected from him. I'm going to be curious to scroll up and see if I'm close to where I was then, now, when I'm done posting this.... probably won't be. Haha. Everyone is more optimistic in the [fantasy] MLB off-season as compared to the real season... it's funny and I only now noticed this season how it can be like that.

Hearing that he's taking good chops is good news though. One thing's for sure: his BABIP against LHP was NOT going to stay the same. That was an unsustainable high number, and he won't ever get that lucky again unless he sold his soul to someone. He will still sit occasionally against LHP too I would imagine, just for rest days, but if he still gets 500+ AB as I was expecting going into the year, and what you say about him making solid contact and not pressing is true, then hopefully he can turn it on as it heats up a bit or something. Perhaps he's feeling pressure having to fill the void left by Hamilton? I don't know, but I sure hope he can get it going. Your post helped me decide to hang onto the dude for a bit longer.

One more question for you? If you've seen his at bats, have any been vs. LHP and if so, how did he look? Before he was getting insanely lucky last season, he was pretty awful vs. LHP. That will play a big role as to whether or not he can handle an everyday role... his AVG vs. LHP lifetime is very bad, and he was plain lucky for most of last season. Unless his approach has really changed tenfold, I do worry about hm being exposed to  LHP and falling into slumps because of that as well. Your thoughts are much appreciated!
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#12 MorrisWells

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Posted 17 April 2013 - 03:38 PM

Your worries about him being exposed to LHP are legit.
I have seen him vs. Moore and vs. Saunders this year and, although he never struck out and racked up a hit vs. Matt Moore, his ABs were less impressive.

I remember him being more aggressive vs. them but this led to him always being behind the count and making poor contact just to put the ball in play.

Compared to last year, I think last year stats have been the exception and he can't be trusted against southpaws.

I own both him and Moreland and I platoon them in my fantasy team, sitting them vs lefites.

#13 poopdungbeatle

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 08:01 PM

what a cruddy start the season.  With tonights 0-4, the BA is down to .183 plus he isn't hitting for any power with only 2 HR's and 3 doubles.
He isn't striking out a lot but everything is weak grounders and pop ups.
Do you guys think he'll turn it around? Maybe he'll heat up when the weather starts heating up?
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#14 kwelch

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 10:35 AM

Still hasn't come around. He missed the last 4 starts I believe. When he came in to pinch hit last night, during an 18 hit game for the Rangers, he went 0-4 with 2 Ks. I think he will end of less than even a good platoon option.
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#15 strahanfan92

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:12 PM

2 homers in last 3 games, buy low?

#16 MorrisWells

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:18 PM

Rangers facing righties only this week, I can see him raising his AVG and overall value so yes, buy low.

#17 Ragnaroker

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 04:02 PM

Is he going to platoon with Baker for the foreseeable future? I'd imagine if he starts hitting like he has in the past this shouldn't be a problem, but to be fair he has only ever really platooned to an extent.

#18 UVA_Drew

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 07:09 AM

David Murphy went 2-for-5 with a double and three RBI in Saturday's 5-2 victory in Seattle.
Murphy's two-run double in the second off Felix Hernandez spotted Texas a 3-0 lead. Murphy, one of the league's few tormentors of King Felix, had another good game against the All-World hurler. Unfortunately, he hasn't been hitting anyone else, batting .229/.279/.405 through 47 games. Murphy does have eight hits in his last six games, hopefully portending the end to his batter's box misery.


This guy is ranked 43 in the past two weeks, and #17 for the pas week. Rotoworld must really have a grudge against him.

HItting 2nd still next week (Kinsler's DL stint won't be over till June 2 at the earliest). And he's been heating up lately. Might be time to pick him up and try to get on this hot streak.
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#19 UVA_Drew

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 07:11 AM

Also facing 6 righties and only 1 lefty next week.
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#20 BustHerPosey

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 11:42 AM

Does he play against Lefties?

Edited by BustHerPosey, 26 May 2013 - 11:42 AM.

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