Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

- - - - -

Ryan Howard 2013 OutlookWritten off for dead


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
92 replies to this topic

#1 WahooManiac

WahooManiac

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,521 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 12:23 AM

Well, if anyone here was hoping to get a decent value on him this year with a possible rebound season, this just ruined your day

http://sports.yahoo....56577--mlb.html

Personally, Im not sold on the big rebound, as he hasnt hit a hook in awhile now with any authority.  Seem to remember an article some time back referencing Howard as one of the most "figured out" hitters due to the new pitch f/x type data the rest of the league had on him.  Ill try to find it again if I can, but what does the community think of him?
Good pitching will beat good hitting anytime, and vice versa.  -Bob Veale

We're reaching the pt where you can be a truly dedicated, state-of-the-art fan or you can have a life.  Take your pick.  -Thomas Boswell

#2 Suikoden

Suikoden

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,644 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 07:13 AM

I think he will be good this year.  Not great, but he will be good and undervalued that you could probably get him cheap in auction or late in standard.
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#3 South Jersey Bombers

South Jersey Bombers

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 341 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:00 AM

35 hrs, 100 rbis, .335 OBP

heres to hoping!
Macann , Abreu , Altuve , Alverez , Tulo
Cespedes , Crisp , Granderson , Adams
Headley , Eaton , Lowrie , Castro
Darvish , Strasburg , Kazmir , Ventura , Quintana , Odorizzi , Lynn, Martinez , Cashner , Lirano
Holland , Mejia , Beniot

#4 cyberer

cyberer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,177 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:53 AM

I'll like him a lot more if revere leads off and Rollins hits behind him. Otherwise it'll probably be ruf, revere, Dom brown or chooch hitting behind him.

I'm still skeptical that Charlie will demote Jimmy from leadoff full time, with his love for veterans.

The one spring game I watched though revere led off with an infield single, stole 2nd, and scored on a base hit. Hopefully Charlie was watching.

I guess they could hit young 5th and revere Rollins 1-2 that seems unlikely to me though.

This looks like their ideal lineup to me...

Revere
Young
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Ruf
Chooch
Brown



SIG UPDATED TO INCLUDE FOOTBALL!

Purple Breesus   1st place place in points/standings

12 Team PPR

QB Brees
WR1 Dez Bryant
WR2 Demaryius Thomas
WR3 Jordy Nelson
RB1 Adrian Peterson
RB2 Darren Sproles
TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Kendall Wright OR Pierre Thomas OR Bobby Rainey

K Crosby
DEF Saints, Jets (playing weekly matchups)

BENCH: Mike Tolbert, Mario Manningham, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Ogbonnaya

#5 DropkickAlex

DropkickAlex

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,032 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:56 AM

The dumbest and probably the worst contract in all of baseball. Thank God none of that matters and hopefully he's "solid" when it comes to fantasy numbers this year.
Brooklyn Dodgers: Buffalo Baseball League: Dynasty League: 7th Year:
World Series Champion (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
American League Champion (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
Division Champion (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)

#6 ipstaff

ipstaff

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,640 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 11:19 AM

Genuine power usually is the hardest thing to find on the wire.  If it's there at all, it's usually ugly, warty power, Mark Reynolds stuff that makes you hurt elsewhere to get it.

So if I can pick up 30 HR from an unsexy veteran guy with a mid-late draft pick or low teens auction price, I'm very happy to do it.  I'll gladly let other folks in the league chase/overspend on whatever this year's equivalent of 2012 Eric Hosmer, 2011 Brandon Belt, or whatever other hype train "can't miss prospect!!!" (the kind that, frequently, misses) they want to overlook that unsexy veteran for.

Also helping to keep Howard's price down is the abundance of other good to great 1B picks out there.

#7 Zumayaaaa

Zumayaaaa

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,375 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 12:53 PM

View Postipstaff, on 28 February 2013 - 11:19 AM, said:

Genuine power usually is the hardest thing to find on the wire.  If it's there at all, it's usually ugly, warty power, Mark Reynolds stuff that makes you hurt elsewhere to get it.

So if I can pick up 30 HR from an unsexy veteran guy with a mid-late draft pick or low teens auction price, I'm very happy to do it.  I'll gladly let other folks in the league chase/overspend on whatever this year's equivalent of 2012 Eric Hosmer, 2011 Brandon Belt, or whatever other hype train "can't miss prospect!!!" (the kind that, frequently, misses) they want to overlook that unsexy veteran for.

Also helping to keep Howard's price down is the abundance of other good to great 1B picks out there.

That sounds an awfully lot like how I feel about Howard.

Edited by Zumayaaaa, 28 February 2013 - 12:53 PM.


#8 ipstaff

ipstaff

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,640 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 02:49 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 28 February 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

View Postipstaff, on 28 February 2013 - 11:19 AM, said:

Genuine power usually is the hardest thing to find on the wire.  If it's there at all, it's usually ugly, warty power, Mark Reynolds stuff that makes you hurt elsewhere to get it.

So if I can pick up 30 HR from an unsexy veteran guy with a mid-late draft pick or low teens auction price, I'm very happy to do it.  I'll gladly let other folks in the league chase/overspend on whatever this year's equivalent of 2012 Eric Hosmer, 2011 Brandon Belt, or whatever other hype train "can't miss prospect!!!" (the kind that, frequently, misses) they want to overlook that unsexy veteran for.

Also helping to keep Howard's price down is the abundance of other good to great 1B picks out there.

That sounds an awfully lot like how I feel about Howard.

Well, Howard's  career BA is .271, and the only season he ever hit below .251 is last season, when his Achilles was still a mess.  Reynolds, on the other hand, is a career .235 BA guy who has only batted above .240 twice in six seasons, including a .198, .221, and .221 in his last three.  So I think there's a huge difference between the two.  But that perception and over-impression based on last season, is exactly what will keep his price depressed for 2013 drafts.

#9 Wombat

Wombat

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,776 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:17 PM

He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average.  He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average.  Meh.

#10 Suikoden

Suikoden

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,644 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:28 PM

View PostWombat, on 28 February 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average.  He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average.  Meh.

what about if the league tracks BB and OPS too?

I'm kind of on the fence with perhaps targetting Howard late
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#11 malta69

malta69

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,598 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:37 PM

I know its February 28th, but a bomb off of Kimbrel???

Big Piece is showing me a little something this spring
Bases...
2008 Extra Base Hit Dynasty League Champion - The Inaugural Season

Foots...
'06, '07, '08 & '09 Boozers & Losers League Champ

#12 An Old Hippie

An Old Hippie

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,301 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:42 PM

View PostWombat, on 28 February 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

He's really the epitome of a 2 category player, he's probably the slowest player in the league on the bases, he's going to be a negative in runs scored along with average.  He probably still hits 30 homers and 100 RBI's if he stays healthy, but it might be with 65 runs scored and a .240 average.  Meh.

As for the slowest have you ever watched Konerko and Dunn do the bases

#13 hankywilly

hankywilly

    Just Drafted

  • Probationary Member
  • 1 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:44 PM

i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

#14 cyberer

cyberer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,177 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:44 PM

Did you ever watch that clip of howard legging out a double in 2012? I know he was lame on his ankle but he literally looked like he had mo vaugn strapped to his back as he was running.
SIG UPDATED TO INCLUDE FOOTBALL!

Purple Breesus   1st place place in points/standings

12 Team PPR

QB Brees
WR1 Dez Bryant
WR2 Demaryius Thomas
WR3 Jordy Nelson
RB1 Adrian Peterson
RB2 Darren Sproles
TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Kendall Wright OR Pierre Thomas OR Bobby Rainey

K Crosby
DEF Saints, Jets (playing weekly matchups)

BENCH: Mike Tolbert, Mario Manningham, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Ogbonnaya

#15 Suikoden

Suikoden

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,644 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:45 PM

View Postmalta69, on 28 February 2013 - 03:37 PM, said:

I know its February 28th, but a bomb off of Kimbrel???

Big Piece is showing me a little something this spring

and hitting 500 so far

I'm trying to remember this one stat..but it was if a player gets 50AB in spring training and hits .200+ higher in I think OPS during that time, there's a 60% chance he has a break out year...it was something along those lines....

I'm at work, but I believe I have the link at home.  Bautista was one of those that fell into this 60% thing.  This is why I'm carefully looking at Prince Fielder this spring.
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#16 Wombat

Wombat

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,776 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:02 PM

View Posthankywilly, on 28 February 2013 - 03:44 PM, said:

i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

Yeah he scored 100 runs when he was driving himself in 50 times, when he was in his 20's and not a rapidly aging 1st basemen who has a declining walk rate, who was in what was once a fearsome lineup, and is coming off a friggin TORN ACHILLES. Did you see him run last year?  It was painful to watch.  His runs scored stats from 3 years ago is irrelevant to projecting them this year.

#17 ipstaff

ipstaff

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,640 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:19 PM

View Posthankywilly, on 28 February 2013 - 03:44 PM, said:

i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

You're actually even underselling him.  He's averaged 98 runs per 162 games in his career.  His career low in runs in any full season is 81.

It's just amazing how fast people's memories are influenced by one bad year, in which he was returning from a horrible injury.  If Wombat's 65 R, .240 BA prediction comes true, they would be significantly below his career worsts for a full season in both categories.

He's no longer a 45 HR/140 RBI lock, like he was from 2006-2009.  But you don't have to pay for that, either.

A guy who (if healthy, and looks to be in ST) carries a .250 BA, 80 R as a bearish estimate with a very likely 30 HR, 100 RBI attached?  In the low teens auction price / 110-120ish ADP?  Sounds good to me.

#18 battle2heaven

battle2heaven

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,175 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:27 PM

View PostSuikoden, on 28 February 2013 - 03:45 PM, said:

View Postmalta69, on 28 February 2013 - 03:37 PM, said:

I know its February 28th, but a bomb off of Kimbrel???

Big Piece is showing me a little something this spring

and hitting 500 so far

I'm trying to remember this one stat..but it was if a player gets 50AB in spring training and hits .200+ higher in I think OPS during that time, there's a 60% chance he has a break out year...it was something along those lines....

I'm at work, but I believe I have the link at home.  Bautista was one of those that fell into this 60% thing.  This is why I'm carefully looking at Prince Fielder this spring.

Yep. It's not really applicable to current stars, more so for breakout potential.
12 team h2h 6x6 (OPS + QS)

C:  Mike Napoli
1b: Chris Davis
2b: Aaron Hill
ss: Jimmy Rollins
3b: Ryan Zimmermann
of: Mike Stanton
of: Jose Bautista
of: Yoenis Cespedes
UTL: Starling Marte
UTL: Nate McClouth
bench: Gerardo Parra, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson

SP: Max Scherzer SP: Jeff Samardzjia
SP: Yovani Gallardo SP: Anibal Sanchez
SP: Francisco Liriano   SP: John Lackey
SP: Corey Kluber   SP: Kyle Kendrick
SP: Jose Quintana (stream spot) SP: Joe Saunders (stream spot)
RP: Koji Uehara

#19 Wombat

Wombat

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,776 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:36 PM

View Postipstaff, on 28 February 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

View Posthankywilly, on 28 February 2013 - 03:44 PM, said:

i love when guys make observations but dont look at the stats, he has scored over 100 runs mulitple times and prob averages 80 plus per year, if has a bounce back year it will be 40+ hrs and 120 rbi's, always tough when coming back from a major injury and now he is a full 1.5 years removed

You're actually even underselling him.  He's averaged 98 runs per 162 games in his career.  His career low in runs in any full season is 81.

It's just amazing how fast people's memories are influenced by one bad year, in which he was returning from a horrible injury.  If Wombat's 65 R, .240 BA prediction comes true, they would be significantly below his career worsts for a full season in both categories.

He's no longer a 45 HR/140 RBI lock, like he was from 2006-2009.  But you don't have to pay for that, either.

A guy who (if healthy, and looks to be in ST) carries a .250 BA, 80 R as a bearish estimate with a very likely 30 HR, 100 RBI attached?  In the low teens auction price / 110-120ish ADP?  Sounds good to me.

His last full season was 2011.  He hit .253 and scored 81 runs.  And that was when he was 2 years younger, in what was a superior lineup to what he is in now, and before he had a torn achilles. His career averages are totally irrelevant  he isn't the same player anymore. He's on a 4 year decline in OPS, last year his strikeout and walk rates were horrific. Maybe those estimates are overly pessimistic by a few runs and points, I dunno.  I just think there are a lot of players similar to what he is at this point.  Adam Laroche, Josh Willingham, Mark Trumbo, etc. There is value in 30 home runs for sure, but he's just not someone I am excited about targeting in the middle or middle-late rounds.

#20 2ndCitySox

2ndCitySox

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,409 posts

Posted 28 February 2013 - 11:07 PM

Teix or Howard?

(value-wise. Any ideas on ADP?)

Edited by 2ndCitySox, 28 February 2013 - 11:11 PM.

All-Icon Team:
C- Carlton Fisk
1B- Frank Thomas
2B- Ryne Sandberg
SS- Ozzie Smith
3B- Wade Boggs
CF- Rickey
LF- Kirk Gibson
RF- Chili Davis
DH- Eddie Murray

SP- Nolan Ryan
SP- Orel Herschiser
SP- Greg Maddux
SP- Roger Clemens
SP- BlackJack McDowell

RP- Eck