Is there such thing as drafting a "safe" team?
I was looking for a discussion about "safe" fantasy players this year. I know there is no such thing as a safe pick per say, but some players do carry more risk than others.
I'd like some examples from each round of "safe" value - guys that will perform but aren't the sexy picks.
I think these types of players are overlooked, because everyone is always trying to get the upside/value guys.
Examples would be guys that rarely get hurt, older guys who consistently perform, and overlooked players in the draft because they aren't the "sexy" picks.
Some strong fantasy contributors may fall in the draft because people get so caught up in drafting high upside players.
If mods determine this is bench coach material, I understand. But I think this could be a highly valuable thread.
0
2013 "Safe" Picks
Started by
jackmurphy
, Mar 02 2013 10:40 AM
43 replies to this topic
#1
jackmurphy
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:40 AM
Sarge: Whats gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball, almost wanna let this guy here jam you, and if it comes it comes.
#2
klove42
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:45 AM
Matt Holliday is a player that comes to mind. He isn't very sexy of a pick but you know he will put up the numbers
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#3
jackmurphy
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:53 AM
I think Choo fits the bill too. He's being drafted in the 6th-7th round and will most likely hit above .280 and go 20/20. Not to mention he's now hitting in a better lineup.
Sarge: Whats gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball, almost wanna let this guy here jam you, and if it comes it comes.
#4
iAugust
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:57 AM
Mark Buehrle. He is "safe"ly mediocre
18-team all-around points league
C- M. Montero
1B- P. Konerko
2B- J. Altuve
3B- D. Freese
SS- B. Zobrist
OF- A. Jackson
OF- C. Beltran
OF- A. Pagan
DH- G. Jones
BN- A. Ramirez, C. Ross, D. Stubbs, M. Izturis, A. Rodriguez (DL)
SP- S. Strasburg
SP- D. Price
SP- A. Sanchez
SP- A. Ogando
SP- A. Griffin
CL- G. Perkins
BN- J. Fernandez, J. Grimm, D. Phelps, J. Blanton, Z. Greinke (DL), B. Beachy (DL), T. Lilly (DL), B. Myers (DL), N. Eovaldi (DL)
C- M. Montero
1B- P. Konerko
2B- J. Altuve
3B- D. Freese
SS- B. Zobrist
OF- A. Jackson
OF- C. Beltran
OF- A. Pagan
DH- G. Jones
BN- A. Ramirez, C. Ross, D. Stubbs, M. Izturis, A. Rodriguez (DL)
SP- S. Strasburg
SP- D. Price
SP- A. Sanchez
SP- A. Ogando
SP- A. Griffin
CL- G. Perkins
BN- J. Fernandez, J. Grimm, D. Phelps, J. Blanton, Z. Greinke (DL), B. Beachy (DL), T. Lilly (DL), B. Myers (DL), N. Eovaldi (DL)
#5
The Big Bat Theory
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:04 AM
Paul Konerko totally gets under valued year after year. He is slowly down some but should have at least one more good season left in him.
Aramis Ramirez is another one though with a small caveat. He isn't "safe" as in he will produce at high levels throughout the season. But he is "safe" in that he consistently starts out slow then catches on fire and can carry a club the second half of a season.
James Shields has been one of the more consistent pitchers over the years but isn't considered a sexy one for some reason.
Aramis Ramirez is another one though with a small caveat. He isn't "safe" as in he will produce at high levels throughout the season. But he is "safe" in that he consistently starts out slow then catches on fire and can carry a club the second half of a season.
James Shields has been one of the more consistent pitchers over the years but isn't considered a sexy one for some reason.
#6
tphilipo
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:10 AM
For quantifiable reliability, I'd look at the RazzSteamer projections (available here) and sort by reliability. Top hitters (at least for reliability) look like Andrus, Cabrera, McCutch, Zobrist, Braun, Fielder, Cano, Pujols, Butler, and Bourn. Seems about right to me.
#7
ballfan4141
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:20 AM
ryan braun without a doubt eventhough some doubt.
#8
MeisterT
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:29 AM
Billy Butler-- every year I somehow overlook the dude on draft day and every year regret it. Fat boy (weren't people calling him Country Breakfast last year? 
) can flat out wail at the plate.
) can flat out wail at the plate.
"I'm hoping to have my team's daily box score read to me by Morgan Freeman, while a bevy of supermodels peel me grapes and give me a shoulder massage while telling me how sexy my fantasy baseball knowledge is as I explain the differing schools of thought regarding whether it is, or is not, worth it to roster lower-tier closers...Oh, wait. I'm confusing 'hoping' and 'wishing' again"
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"Who wrote that, High Times? That is an amateur scouting report at best"
"Jim Tracy is the devil"
"It's the learning f------ nothing that keeps me young." - Al Swearengen
#9
Matthias
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:31 AM
Cole Hamels. He's had 1 mediocre year out of the last 6.
#10
Orion Braun
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:41 AM
ballfan4141, on 02 March 2013 - 11:20 AM, said:
ryan braun without a doubt eventhough some doubt.
This is just some excellent insight here, guys. Thanks for taking the time to post this, ballfan. I don't think anyone would have thought of Braun.
Can't believe we have made it this far without mentioned LaRoche. You can get him in like the 15th round and he is gonna hit 25+HR, 90RBI, 80R and .265.
Another one is Yo Gallardo. Last 4 years almost identical and the guy is only 27 years old. Money in the bank for 190IP, 15W, 3.60 ERA, 1.30WHIP, 200Ks. I think he can improve on those numbers this year, too.
#11
ballfan4141
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:45 AM
you said "safe pick" braun is the safest. laroche is no lock for them numbers.
#12
Orion Braun
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:09 PM
ballfan4141, on 02 March 2013 - 11:45 AM, said:
you said "safe pick" braun is the safest. laroche is no lock for them numbers.
Here is the OP's request: "I'd like some examples from each round of "safe" value - guys that will perform but aren't the sexy picks."
As the #1 pick, Braun is not a value pick in any way and he is definitely a "sexy" pick. And you're right, LaRoche is not a lock, but he is as close as anyone and certainly fits the description of what jackmurphy is hoping to discuss. Highlighting Braun does no one any good, but thanks for trying, I guess.
Edited by Orion Braun, 02 March 2013 - 12:09 PM.
#13
parrothead
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:22 PM
Matt Cain to me seems like the kind of guy whose picture you would find in the dictionary under "safe" pick. The guy is a reliable rock, never gets hurt puts up solid but not quite elite level numbers year in and year out, but in general I think is undervalued because he isnt a 200K guy and his run support through the years has cost him wins, but to me is a a "safe" pick.
Paul Konerko is one who is pretty safe and always undervalued.
Miguel Montero is kind of your safe play at Catcher.
Aramis Ramirez at 3B.
Paul Konerko is one who is pretty safe and always undervalued.
Miguel Montero is kind of your safe play at Catcher.
Aramis Ramirez at 3B.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about
#14
Z06vette
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:23 PM
Nick Swisher
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#15
Sean-O
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:42 PM
Holliday & A-Ram are great mentions & a couple of guys that came to mind when I saw this thread.
I know he's iffy to be ready for the opener but I always seem to end up with Corey Hart & he's generally pretty solid year in & year out.
I know he's iffy to be ready for the opener but I always seem to end up with Corey Hart & he's generally pretty solid year in & year out.
C (1) - M. Montero
1B (1) - M. Cabrera
2B (1) - E. Cabrera
SS (1) - A. Cabrera
3B (1) - Beltre
OF (3) - Gordon, Choo, Beltran
U (2) - Encarnacion, McClouth, D. Gordon
(7) Total Pitchers
SP - Dickey, Wainwright, Shields, Burnett, Medlen, Parker, Vargas, Iwakuma, Kendrick, Colon, Kazmir, Porcello
RP - J. Johnson, Parnell, Gregg
12 team H2H League - 1 game eligibility (1 pt-single, 2 pts-double, 3 pts-triple, 4 pts-HR, 1 pt-RBI, 1 pt-walk, 1 pt-run, 2 pts-SB, 10 pts-win/save, -5 pts-blown save, 2 pts-IP, 1 pt-K, -1 pt-ER, -.5 pt-hit, -.5 pt-BB)
1B (1) - M. Cabrera
2B (1) - E. Cabrera
SS (1) - A. Cabrera
3B (1) - Beltre
OF (3) - Gordon, Choo, Beltran
U (2) - Encarnacion, McClouth, D. Gordon
(7) Total Pitchers
SP - Dickey, Wainwright, Shields, Burnett, Medlen, Parker, Vargas, Iwakuma, Kendrick, Colon, Kazmir, Porcello
RP - J. Johnson, Parnell, Gregg
12 team H2H League - 1 game eligibility (1 pt-single, 2 pts-double, 3 pts-triple, 4 pts-HR, 1 pt-RBI, 1 pt-walk, 1 pt-run, 2 pts-SB, 10 pts-win/save, -5 pts-blown save, 2 pts-IP, 1 pt-K, -1 pt-ER, -.5 pt-hit, -.5 pt-BB)
#16
supac720
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:55 PM
Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.
#17
klove42
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 01:37 PM
supac720, on 02 March 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:
Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.
You could also take a risk with a guy like Harper in the second and follow him up with a Holliday type player in the third or fourth and have a solid OF forming. I like to mix safe picks and those high upside guys
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#18
jackmurphy
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 02:05 PM
klove42, on 02 March 2013 - 01:37 PM, said:
supac720, on 02 March 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:
Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.
You could also take a risk with a guy like Harper in the second and follow him up with a Holliday type player in the third or fourth and have a solid OF forming. I like to mix safe picks and those high upside guys
I think what klove said is spot on. You want several of the safe guys on your team in case your high upside risky guys flame out. I think its important to have a balance.
Sarge: Whats gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball, almost wanna let this guy here jam you, and if it comes it comes.
#19
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 08:25 PM
I think Mat Latos is one of the few that offer a very safe line with room to grow still only about 25 years old.
#20
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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:00 PM
Catcher: None
1B: Swisher, Teixeira, Butler, Konerko, Pujols, Freeman
2B: Cano, Kendricks, Phillips, Walker, Zobrist,
SS: Castro, Zobrist, A. Escobar, A. Ramirez, Andrus
3B: Miggy
OF: Swisher, Bourn, Holliday, A. Jones, BJ Upton, Bruce
SP: Cain, Gio Gonz, Hamels, Felix, Kershaw, Verlander, Latos, Price, CC Sab, Shields, Weaver, Mad Bum, Greinke, Gallardo, Lee, Buerhle, Burnett, Cahill
RP: Papelbon, Johnson, Motte, Kimbrel
1B: Swisher, Teixeira, Butler, Konerko, Pujols, Freeman
2B: Cano, Kendricks, Phillips, Walker, Zobrist,
SS: Castro, Zobrist, A. Escobar, A. Ramirez, Andrus
3B: Miggy
OF: Swisher, Bourn, Holliday, A. Jones, BJ Upton, Bruce
SP: Cain, Gio Gonz, Hamels, Felix, Kershaw, Verlander, Latos, Price, CC Sab, Shields, Weaver, Mad Bum, Greinke, Gallardo, Lee, Buerhle, Burnett, Cahill
RP: Papelbon, Johnson, Motte, Kimbrel
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