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2013 "Safe" Picks


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#1 jackmurphy

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:40 AM

Is there such thing as drafting a "safe" team?

I was looking for a discussion about "safe" fantasy players this year. I know there is no such thing as a safe pick per say, but some players do carry more risk than others.

I'd like some examples from each round of "safe" value - guys that will perform but aren't the sexy picks.

I think these types of players are overlooked, because everyone is always trying to get the upside/value guys.

Examples would be guys that rarely get hurt, older guys who consistently perform, and overlooked players in the draft because they aren't the "sexy" picks.

Some strong fantasy contributors may fall in the draft because people get so caught up in drafting high upside players.

If mods determine this is bench coach material, I understand. But I think this could be a highly valuable thread.
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#2 klove42

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:45 AM

Matt Holliday is a player that comes to mind. He isn't very sexy of a pick but you know he will put up the numbers
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#3 jackmurphy

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:53 AM

I think Choo fits the bill too. He's being drafted in the 6th-7th round and will most likely hit above .280 and go 20/20. Not to mention he's now hitting in a better lineup.
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#4 iAugust

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:57 AM

Mark Buehrle. He is "safe"ly mediocre

#5 The Big Bat Theory

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:04 AM

Paul Konerko totally gets under valued year after year. He is slowly down some but should have at least one more good season left in him.

Aramis Ramirez is another one though with a small caveat. He isn't "safe" as in he will produce at high levels throughout the season. But he is "safe" in that he consistently starts out slow then catches on fire and can carry a club the second half of a season.

James Shields has been one of the more consistent pitchers over the years but isn't considered a sexy one for some reason.

#6 tphilipo

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:10 AM

For quantifiable reliability, I'd look at the RazzSteamer projections (available here) and sort by reliability. Top hitters (at least for reliability) look like Andrus, Cabrera, McCutch, Zobrist, Braun, Fielder, Cano, Pujols, Butler, and Bourn. Seems about right to me.

#7 ballfan4141

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:20 AM

ryan braun without a doubt eventhough some doubt.

#8 MeisterT

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:29 AM

Billy Butler-- every year I somehow overlook the dude on draft day and every year regret it. Fat boy (weren't people calling him Country Breakfast last year? :D ) can flat out wail at the plate.
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#9 Matthias

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:31 AM

Cole Hamels. He's had 1 mediocre year out of the last 6.

#10 Orion Braun

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:41 AM

ryan braun without a doubt eventhough some doubt.


This is just some excellent insight here, guys. Thanks for taking the time to post this, ballfan. I don't think anyone would have thought of Braun. :rolleyes:


Can't believe we have made it this far without mentioned LaRoche. You can get him in like the 15th round and he is gonna hit 25+HR, 90RBI, 80R and .265.

Another one is Yo Gallardo. Last 4 years almost identical and the guy is only 27 years old. Money in the bank for 190IP, 15W, 3.60 ERA, 1.30WHIP, 200Ks. I think he can improve on those numbers this year, too.
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#11 ballfan4141

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:45 AM

you said "safe pick" braun is the safest. laroche is no lock for them numbers.

#12 Orion Braun

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:09 PM

you said "safe pick" braun is the safest. laroche is no lock for them numbers.


Here is the OP's request: "I'd like some examples from each round of "safe" value - guys that will perform but aren't the sexy picks."

As the #1 pick, Braun is not a value pick in any way and he is definitely a "sexy" pick. And you're right, LaRoche is not a lock, but he is as close as anyone and certainly fits the description of what jackmurphy is hoping to discuss. Highlighting Braun does no one any good, but thanks for trying, I guess.

Edited by Orion Braun, 02 March 2013 - 12:09 PM.

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#13 parrothead

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:22 PM

Matt Cain to me seems like the kind of guy whose picture you would find in the dictionary under "safe" pick. The guy is a reliable rock, never gets hurt puts up solid but not quite elite level numbers year in and year out, but in general I think is undervalued because he isnt a 200K guy and his run support through the years has cost him wins, but to me is a a "safe" pick.

Paul Konerko is one who is pretty safe and always undervalued.

Miguel Montero is kind of your safe play at Catcher.

Aramis Ramirez at 3B.
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#14 Z06vette

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:23 PM

Nick Swisher
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#15 Sean-O

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:42 PM

Holliday & A-Ram are great mentions & a couple of guys that came to mind when I saw this thread.

I know he's iffy to be ready for the opener but I always seem to end up with Corey Hart & he's generally pretty solid year in & year out.
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#16 supac720

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:55 PM

Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.

#17 klove42

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 01:37 PM

Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.


You could also take a risk with a guy like Harper in the second and follow him up with a Holliday type player in the third or fourth and have a solid OF forming. I like to mix safe picks and those high upside guys
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#18 jackmurphy

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 02:05 PM


Safe is for the guy who wants to place 3rd or 4th. In order to win it all, you have to take some calculated risks.


You could also take a risk with a guy like Harper in the second and follow him up with a Holliday type player in the third or fourth and have a solid OF forming. I like to mix safe picks and those high upside guys


I think what klove said is spot on. You want several of the safe guys on your team in case your high upside risky guys flame out. I think its important to have a balance.
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#19 barnery

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 08:25 PM

I think Mat Latos is one of the few that offer a very safe line with room to grow still only about 25 years old.

#20 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:00 PM

Catcher: None
1B: Swisher, Teixeira, Butler, Konerko, Pujols, Freeman
2B: Cano, Kendricks, Phillips, Walker, Zobrist,
SS: Castro, Zobrist, A. Escobar, A. Ramirez, Andrus
3B: Miggy
OF: Swisher, Bourn, Holliday, A. Jones, BJ Upton, Bruce
SP: Cain, Gio Gonz, Hamels, Felix, Kershaw, Verlander, Latos, Price, CC Sab, Shields, Weaver, Mad Bum, Greinke, Gallardo, Lee, Buerhle, Burnett, Cahill
RP: Papelbon, Johnson, Motte, Kimbrel