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Matthew Stafford 2013 Season Outlook


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#61 3 times 2nd

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 12:40 PM

I'm not so sure Stafford Burned anyone last year.
He threw for 4,965 yards.
The TD's were low, but we've all seen the stat. Calvin Johnson alone got tackled at the 1 yard line 5(6?) times.
5*6 = 30 points. Did you know that changing nothing but Megatrons tackles to TD's would have ranked him(Stafford) 4th behind only Brees/Rodgers/Brady?

Was it Staffords fault that 4 of his top targets got injured?
It's okay to expect Tom Brady's '13 numbers to drop because he lost his weapons, but Stafford throws 5k yards to guys names I don't even know, and he's the bust?
Was it Staffords fault that we all doubted Peyton Manning and took Stafford over him?
Was it his fault that 3(4 if you count Kaep) QB's came into the league by storm and ~matched him fantasy wise?
Was it Staffords fault that both Ryan and Romo had the best years of their career?

People think he threw too many INT's. Know who threw more TD's than Stafford last year? Drew Brees. Andrew Luck, Tony Romo.
At least Stafford has an excuse. He's throwing it to a guy who's constantly triple or bracket covered because he doesn't really have a choice to throw it to anyone. They didn't have a run game to take ANY pressure off of defenses just laying back and trying to remove 'Tron from the game.
They think that it's not where he finished, it's the point differential from the previous year, but:
Brees -35
Rodgers -46
Brady -42
Newton -50

Those are the fantasy number drops from '11 to '12 for those 4 QBs.
Staffords is higher, but lets not pretend he's the only guy at his position that under performed comparatively.

Agree with much of this. Anyone disappointed in Stafford last year is drafting QB too early. He finished 9th in QB scoring, but less than 2 points per game out of 4th. Brees, Brady and rodgers all ADPed higher than Stafford and those were top 3. He threw for 2nd most yards in the league, just didn't get in the end zone enough. Anyone think Calvin Johnson has another 1900 yards season and only finds the end zone 5 times again?

#62 mroct27

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 01:43 PM

I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.

#63 FFCollusion

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 02:25 PM

I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.


My point was I think he did play up to his ADP. Like I said, just take Calvins unlucky tackles at the 1, make them TD's and Stafford was the #4 QB last year. Right around where he was drafted. It might seem like cheating, but it we're talking about a literal 5 yard difference, between finishing #4 to #10. A very unlucky 5 yards.

I am thankful this came up though, it helped me alter my QB rankings for this year.

Edited by FFCollusion, 04 August 2013 - 02:26 PM.

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#64 3 times 2nd

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 02:43 PM

I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.

yea, if he was picked that early, then I'd be disappointed too. That said, 3-4 QBs were ADP higher than Stafford(Brady/Brees/Arod/Cam)...and he wasn't that far behind them in point totals. The problem with QB that early is that, generally, the pick is going to disappoint. This is because the #12 QB goes in the 10th round and is only marginally less valuable that the #4-#5 QB who went in the 2nd. After the top couple guys(Arod/Brees), you can wait on QB and get value late, so a 2nd round pick on the #5 QB is wasteful and is destined to disappoint.

#65 FFCollusion

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 03:00 PM

The problem with QB that early is that, generally, the pick is going to disappoint.


Tell that to the guys who passed on a QB last year, and decided to draft McCoy, DMC, Mojo, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald... you get the point.

This year is a bit different due to depth, but in the past, QBs made plenty of sense, for safety, consistency, minimizing risk, etc.
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#66 3 times 2nd

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 03:58 PM


The problem with QB that early is that, generally, the pick is going to disappoint.


Tell that to the guys who passed on a QB last year, and decided to draft McCoy, DMC, Mojo, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald... you get the point.

This year is a bit different due to depth, but in the past, QBs made plenty of sense, for safety, consistency, minimizing risk, etc.

Taking the #5 QB on the board in the 2nd round has never made sense. Typically, it's a 12 team league, so you are getting "average" production at QB with the #5 Qb compared to your league mates. You essentially have to "nail" the pick to get relative value...ie the #5 QB in the 2nd round has to produce in the top 2-3 Qbs or you've gained no seperation over your league mates when 1/3 of the league has a better QB already and the other 1/3 waited on QB and got a top 10 QB without using a 2nd round pick. The difference between the #5 QB and the #12 QB is hardly ever more than 2 points per game and you get the #12 QB in the 11th round because everyone else in your league has a QB. QB has always been deep because most leagues only play 1 QB and there's 3 times that many real QBs available. I have no problem taking A-rod or Brees or Brady early last year, but there is no value in drafting the #5 QB in the 2nd round.

#67 FFCollusion

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 06:46 PM

You don't draft them expecting them to finish middle of the pack if you draft them that high. We also didn't expect names like RG3, Luck and Wilson to dilute the QB1 list either.

The difference between #5 and #12 is 3.5 points a game.
The difference between #1 and #5 is 3.3 points a game.
By your logic, it doesn't make sense to draft the Big 3 early either.

And I guarantee there was more value in owning Stafford or Cam last year, than there was owning the guys I mentioned above, like MoJo, DMC etc.
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#68 CurlyDumps

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 07:40 PM


I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.


My point was I think he did play up to his ADP. Like I said, just take Calvins unlucky tackles at the 1, make them TD's and Stafford was the #4 QB last year. Right around where he was drafted. It might seem like cheating, but it we're talking about a literal 5 yard difference, between finishing #4 to #10. A very unlucky 5 yards.

I am thankful this came up though, it helped me alter my QB rankings for this year.


You still don't get points for throwing passes to the 1.

2011 - 41 TD's, 16 INT

2012 - 20 TD's, 17 INT

Even if you give him an extra 5 TD's, he numbers last year were still a big disappointment. He didn't come close to playing up to his ADP.

Edited by CurlyDumps, 04 August 2013 - 07:40 PM.


#69 Gryfter

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 07:12 AM



I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.


My point was I think he did play up to his ADP. Like I said, just take Calvins unlucky tackles at the 1, make them TD's and Stafford was the #4 QB last year. Right around where he was drafted. It might seem like cheating, but it we're talking about a literal 5 yard difference, between finishing #4 to #10. A very unlucky 5 yards.

I am thankful this came up though, it helped me alter my QB rankings for this year.


You still don't get points for throwing passes to the 1.

2011 - 41 TD's, 16 INT

2012 - 20 TD's, 17 INT

Even if you give him an extra 5 TD's, he numbers last year were still a big disappointment. He didn't come close to playing up to his ADP.


it wasnt just the 5/6 TDs stopped short of the goal line by Megatron... there were at least 8 TDs dropped in the endzone...
(2) 14 team 0.5 PPR:

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Eddie Lacy, Joique Bell
WR: Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr., Andre Holmes
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Jeremy Hill
K: Steven Hauschka
DST: Detroit
Bench: Roddy White, Keenan Allen, James Starks, Darren McFadden, Teddy Bridgewater, Storm Johnson

QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Matt Forte, Ben Tate
WR: Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb
TE: Dwayne Allen
FLEX: Steve Smith
K: Matt Prater
DST: Buffalo
Bench: Matt Ryan, Joique Bell, Bishop Sankey, Larry Donnell, Kansas City DST
RES: Josh Gordon

#70 dman0506

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 08:24 AM




I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.


My point was I think he did play up to his ADP. Like I said, just take Calvins unlucky tackles at the 1, make them TD's and Stafford was the #4 QB last year. Right around where he was drafted. It might seem like cheating, but it we're talking about a literal 5 yard difference, between finishing #4 to #10. A very unlucky 5 yards.

I am thankful this came up though, it helped me alter my QB rankings for this year.


You still don't get points for throwing passes to the 1.

2011 - 41 TD's, 16 INT

2012 - 20 TD's, 17 INT

Even if you give him an extra 5 TD's, he numbers last year were still a big disappointment. He didn't come close to playing up to his ADP.


it wasnt just the 5/6 TDs stopped short of the goal line by Megatron... there were at least 8 TDs dropped in the endzone...

I'm so sick of hearing this crap reason for his lack of TD's..You could go down the list to each team and cherry pick stats for Brees,Brady,Manning,etc saying the exact same thing for drops/tackles..

Just like every Stafford fanboy likes to say 'you can't discredit Staffords production just because he's tied to CJ', well you cant deny the regression Stafford had last year..Go look at his game log..He was boom or bust (more bust than boom) through much of the season..

I'll take any 6 QB's ahead of him all day for the consistency..Top 3 my butt..

Again, his decision making plus that stupid side arm throw is a recipe for disaster..
14 team standard format .5ppr 13th pick overall..

QB Russell Wilson (4)
RB Alfred Morris (1)
RB Matt Forte (2)
WR DeSean Jackson (6)
WR T.Y. Hilton (7)
WR Chris Givens (8)
T/W/R LeVeon Belll (3)
TE Vernon Davis (5)
IR Andre Brown (9)
BN Percy Harvin (FA)
BN Daryl Richardson (10)
BN Ryan Broyles (11)
BN Michael Floyd (12)
DEF Tampa (13) IDP Wagner (14) IDP Atkins (15)IDP Smith (16)
K Hauschka (17)

#71 mverkruyse

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 09:51 AM

I wouldn'





I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.


My point was I think he did play up to his ADP. Like I said, just take Calvins unlucky tackles at the 1, make them TD's and Stafford was the #4 QB last year. Right around where he was drafted. It might seem like cheating, but it we're talking about a literal 5 yard difference, between finishing #4 to #10. A very unlucky 5 yards.

I am thankful this came up though, it helped me alter my QB rankings for this year.


You still don't get points for throwing passes to the 1.

2011 - 41 TD's, 16 INT

2012 - 20 TD's, 17 INT

Even if you give him an extra 5 TD's, he numbers last year were still a big disappointment. He didn't come close to playing up to his ADP.


it wasnt just the 5/6 TDs stopped short of the goal line by Megatron... there were at least 8 TDs dropped in the endzone...

I'm so sick of hearing this crap reason for his lack of TD's..You could go down the list to each team and cherry pick stats for Brees,Brady,Manning,etc saying the exact same thing for drops/tackles..

Just like every Stafford fanboy likes to say 'you can't discredit Staffords production just because he's tied to CJ', well you cant deny the regression Stafford had last year..Go look at his game log..He was boom or bust (more bust than boom) through much of the season..

I'll take any 6 QB's ahead of him all day for the consistency..Top 3 my butt..

Again, his decision making plus that stupid side arm throw is a recipe for disaster..


I wouldn't consider him top 3, and he's too high in the late 1st/early 2nd like he was last year... but as a top 10, in the 5th-7th round... I think you're getting good value there. The other guys he's drafting around are:

Kaepernick: Lack of a serious WR1 without Crabtree
Wilson: On the league's most run-heavy offense
Brady: No Hernandez, Gronk, Welker, Lloyd
Matt Ryan: Only "safe" upper elite option in the bunch
Luck: Tenancy to throw picks, Reggie Wayne is like 90 in NFL years
Romo: Terrible O-Line, Romo is Romo, good but never great stats.

You can argue that some of these guys have higher upside, but you'd have to be factoring in perfect seasons for them. Aside from Matt Ryan, I think it's fairly easy to make the case that Stafford is the best option of this bunch, and assuming that Brees, Rodgers, and Cam go before all these guys, you're talking about a guy who very likely could be going off the board as QB #7 or later.

#72 Ryan81

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 09:54 AM

I feel like his floor will be where he's drafted and his ceiling at 5000/40.

"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

RotoWorld Mock Real League - 14 team, .5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs(4-2, 1st place)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB2: Reggie Bush
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Mohammed Sanu
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Streaming
Bench: Jeremy Hill, Pierre Thomas, Antone Smith, Travaris Cadet, James Starks, Eric Ebron


#73 dman0506

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 10:11 AM

I wouldn'






I can understand why people were disappointed or "burned" from Stafford last season. The guy didn't play up to his ADP. Most drafts he was going in the late first to late 2nd round picks.


My point was I think he did play up to his ADP. Like I said, just take Calvins unlucky tackles at the 1, make them TD's and Stafford was the #4 QB last year. Right around where he was drafted. It might seem like cheating, but it we're talking about a literal 5 yard difference, between finishing #4 to #10. A very unlucky 5 yards.

I am thankful this came up though, it helped me alter my QB rankings for this year.


You still don't get points for throwing passes to the 1.

2011 - 41 TD's, 16 INT

2012 - 20 TD's, 17 INT

Even if you give him an extra 5 TD's, he numbers last year were still a big disappointment. He didn't come close to playing up to his ADP.


it wasnt just the 5/6 TDs stopped short of the goal line by Megatron... there were at least 8 TDs dropped in the endzone...

I'm so sick of hearing this crap reason for his lack of TD's..You could go down the list to each team and cherry pick stats for Brees,Brady,Manning,etc saying the exact same thing for drops/tackles..

Just like every Stafford fanboy likes to say 'you can't discredit Staffords production just because he's tied to CJ', well you cant deny the regression Stafford had last year..Go look at his game log..He was boom or bust (more bust than boom) through much of the season..

I'll take any 6 QB's ahead of him all day for the consistency..Top 3 my butt..

Again, his decision making plus that stupid side arm throw is a recipe for disaster..


I wouldn't consider him top 3, and he's too high in the late 1st/early 2nd like he was last year... but as a top 10, in the 5th-7th round... I think you're getting good value there. The other guys he's drafting around are:

Kaepernick: Lack of a serious WR1 without Crabtree
Wilson: On the league's most run-heavy offense
Brady: No Hernandez, Gronk, Welker, Lloyd
Matt Ryan: Only "safe" upper elite option in the bunch
Luck: Tenancy to throw picks, Reggie Wayne is like 90 in NFL years
Romo: Terrible O-Line, Romo is Romo, good but never great stats.

You can argue that some of these guys have higher upside, but you'd have to be factoring in perfect seasons for them. Aside from Matt Ryan, I think it's fairly easy to make the case that Stafford is the best option of this bunch, and assuming that Brees, Rodgers, and Cam go before all these guys, you're talking about a guy who very likely could be going off the board as QB #7 or later.

I agree..He has value, I'm just trying to point out that the expectations that some fanboys are placing on him to be a top 3 is just silly..I have him as the 7th on my board and I expect similar numbers to last year..
14 team standard format .5ppr 13th pick overall..

QB Russell Wilson (4)
RB Alfred Morris (1)
RB Matt Forte (2)
WR DeSean Jackson (6)
WR T.Y. Hilton (7)
WR Chris Givens (8)
T/W/R LeVeon Belll (3)
TE Vernon Davis (5)
IR Andre Brown (9)
BN Percy Harvin (FA)
BN Daryl Richardson (10)
BN Ryan Broyles (11)
BN Michael Floyd (12)
DEF Tampa (13) IDP Wagner (14) IDP Atkins (15)IDP Smith (16)
K Hauschka (17)

#74 Robrain

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 12:51 PM

Wouldn't it be really awesome if Randy Moss signed with the Lions to start opposite Megatron?

Defenses can go home crying.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Malcom Floyd.........(14.14)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - John Brown...........(UD.FA)
RB2: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. WR - Cody Latimer.........(13.09)
WR1: Brian Quick............(14.08)............. RB - Toby Gerhart.........(02.02)
WR2: Allen Hurns............(UD.FA)............. RB - Bernard Pierce.......(07.14)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Latavius Murray......(13.12)
FLEX1: Justin Forsett.......(UD.FA)............. RB - Devonta Freeman......(09.01)
FLEX2: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - CJ Anderson..........(09.11)

#75 FFCollusion

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 04:21 PM

I'm just trying to point out that the expectations that some fanboys are placing on him to be a top 3 is just silly..


I think you're confused. No one placed him top 3. They said he had top 3 upside. I think I have Stafford ranked 7th as well, but I do think he can produce 5k/40 for 360 fantasy points. I actually think that's a semi-conservative 'upside' seeing that he's averaged 5k yards the last 2 years, and had already eclipsed the 40 mark before.
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#76 gojetsgo2012

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 04:26 PM

Waiting on QB this year seems to be the smart way to go. Stafford's a guy that I have been targeting late in my drafts. I love his upside, and we've seen what he can do already. I think last year was a down year, and I fully expect Stafford to be somewhere in the middle of last year and the year before 5,000 yards 30-35 TD's

#77 ballfan4141

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 05:58 PM

big season then crap like Philip rivers.

#78 tron34

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Posted 06 August 2013 - 01:17 AM

I think he's in for a good year. I think Bush adds a balance element to the offense that they haven't had since Best, and Bush is better than Best. I think the thing that seals the deal though is Broyles. It sounds like he's back from his knee injury and Stafford wants to throw the ball to him. He'll have Megatron down field, Broyles over the middle and Bush leaking out of the backfield at his disposal and Pettigrew is a threat too.
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#79 3 times 2nd

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Posted 06 August 2013 - 06:48 AM

You don't draft them expecting them to finish middle of the pack if you draft them that high. We also didn't expect names like RG3, Luck and Wilson to dilute the QB1 list either.

The difference between #5 and #12 is 3.5 points a game.
The difference between #1 and #5 is 3.3 points a game.
By your logic, it doesn't make sense to draft the Big 3 early either.

And I guarantee there was more value in owning Stafford or Cam last year, than there was owning the guys I mentioned above, like MoJo, DMC etc.

He was the # 5 adp QB last year behind Arod, Brees, Brady and Cam. Based on QB adp, he should have been expected to be pretty much middle of the pack in a 12 team league, where you only play 12 QBs and 4 are already off the board. Argue that mcFadden, mojo, McCoy, ect were worse, but just because other picks with round 2 adp failed or got hurt, doesn't mean the #5 QB in the 2nd round is a good pick.

#80 FFCollusion

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Posted 06 August 2013 - 11:42 AM

He was the # 5 adp QB last year behind Arod, Brees, Brady and Cam. Based on QB adp, he should have been expected to be pretty much middle of the pack in a 12 team league, where you only play 12 QBs and 4 are already off the board. Argue that mcFadden, mojo, McCoy, ect were worse, but just because other picks with round 2 adp failed or got hurt, doesn't mean the #5 QB in the 2nd round is a good pick.

It's futile, but you're focusing on ranking only. Do you expect him to beat Rodgers/Brees/Brady when you draft him? I guess not, but you expect a proportional points relative to the position you draft him comparatively to alternate QBs in later rounds and then points expected from those guys.

To say it's pointless to draft the 5th best QB (in general, not specific to Stafford) because he's "middle of the pack" is rather short sighted.

If the 5th QB is someone you expect to score more points than the 6-8 guys, then obviously they're worth an earlier pick to you. Just because the rankings of 5-8 sound 'middle of the pack' or 'what's the difference' doesn't mean that the 5th QB didn't outscore the 8th QB by 2-3 PPG.

You can't simply say that the 5th QB is the same as the 8th and that drafting #5 is stupid because you can get the 8th later. There's a PPG difference between them, that either is or isn't worth it to the individual. And it's a decision that people have to make for themselves.
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