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Emilio Bonifacio 2013 OutlookBonafide or Bonifacio?


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#1 Orion Braun

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:03 PM

Bonifacio now projects to bat 2nd leadoff (#9) and play 2B everyday in a resurgent Blue Jays lineup. Apparently his defense has been a bit concerning thus far, but his bat/speed should get him a starting job over Maicer Izturis any day.

He had a bit of a down year in 2012 due to injuries, which is making people forget about the 40SB/.300 season he put up in 2011. If he returns to that, there is crazy value at 2nd base, especially since he is currently the 24th 2B off the board.

He still gets on base at a decent clip (.360 in 2011, but should be around .340-.350 this year), so has a good chance of scoring ~80 Runs if he can get on base ahead of Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista and Encarnacion. The big bats behind him may cut down on his SB attempts, but I have to think he is still good for 35-40 over a full season, considering that he had 30 (!) SBs over just 64 games last year.

So, I pose the question, Bonafide or Bonifacio?
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#2 PRoSPx

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:04 PM

I totally forgot about this guy.  Yeah he is going to be had at a super cheap value.  Steals at a scarce position for cheap.  Can't argue with that.  Well someone will, but I won't.

#3 Suikoden

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:19 PM

DARK.HORSE.

We know he can steal, but everyones forgot about him.  IF he can manage to start every day or get in the lineup for 400AB, I can see him getting you a slew of steals.  However, that is such a huge IF....
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#4 Wombat

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:22 PM

By the time my draft rolls around everyone and their mother will be on this guy. I have been eyeing him for awhile now.  30 steals in 60 games, I would say 30-40 is a conservative estimate if he actually retains the job all year.

Basically has the same upside as Dee Gordon last year who was being picked in like the 8th round.  Playing time is always the concern, but if he can keep the job he can win you the SB category from the MI whereas all the rest of the BIG speed guys are OF only.

#5 2Balls

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:25 PM

Where is this news from? Last I read M.Izturis was promised the job and they loved his defense. Anything official?
As for EB, he was on pace for 80ish SBs last season. The Jays won't run as much, but if he plays everyday, you'll be getting 40 SBs from the thinnest of positions. Yes please!

#6 Orion Braun

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:30 PM

View Post2Balls, on 04 March 2013 - 04:25 PM, said:

Where is this news from? Last I read M.Izturis was promised the job and they loved his defense. Anything official?
As for EB, he was on pace for 80ish SBs last season. The Jays won't run as much, but if he plays everyday, you'll be getting 40 SBs from the thinnest of positions. Yes please!

Was looking at MLBDepthCharts.com and he is listed as the Opening Day starter. A few articles say its an open competition and "up for grabs". He's hitting well this spring, for what it's worth.
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#7 Emtall

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:33 PM

I doubt he beats Izturis for the job. Izturis is just better at baseball. But Izturis is also injury prone, so Emilio should steal some AB's that way (no pun intended)

#8 2Balls

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:34 PM

View PostOrion Braun, on 04 March 2013 - 04:30 PM, said:

View Post2Balls, on 04 March 2013 - 04:25 PM, said:

Where is this news from? Last I read M.Izturis was promised the job and they loved his defense. Anything official?
As for EB, he was on pace for 80ish SBs last season. The Jays won't run as much, but if he plays everyday, you'll be getting 40 SBs from the thinnest of positions. Yes please!

Was looking at MLBDepthCharts.com and he is listed as the Opening Day starter. A few articles say its an open competition and "up for grabs". He's hitting well this spring, for what it's worth.

Makes sense. Izturis hasn't been an elite defender in 4 years. Living off reputation.
Back to Bonafacio, love what he brings and as I said, 40 SBs from your 2B is gold.

#9 2Balls

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:42 PM

View PostEmtall, on 04 March 2013 - 04:33 PM, said:

I doubt he beats Izturis for the job. Izturis is just better at baseball. But Izturis is also injury prone, so Emilio should steal some AB's that way (no pun intended)

No.  Izturis used to be a + defender but he simply isn't anymore.  In fact, last year he was a -3.2 UZR.
While Bonifacio is not a great defender, he is equal or better than Izturis in BB% and OBP.  The terror he causes on the base paths should be the deciding factor.  Izturis does nothing well.

#10 JFS171

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 04:53 PM

Additional upside for Bonifacio is his ability in CF.  Rasmus has received about a thousand chances, and if he continues to perform poorly, I could see Bonifacio siphoning starts in CF when the Jays want to slide Izturis in at 2B.  Obviously Gose is around as well, but they may want him playing everyday in AAA.

Point is, Bonifacio can play multiple posiitons -- played SS and 3B for the Marlins as well -- so given potential injuries and/or non-performance, I think he plays most days, though he's likely better for daily lineup leagues that can confirm he's in the lineup.

#11 Emtall

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 05:35 PM

View Post2Balls, on 04 March 2013 - 04:42 PM, said:

View PostEmtall, on 04 March 2013 - 04:33 PM, said:

I doubt he beats Izturis for the job. Izturis is just better at baseball. But Izturis is also injury prone, so Emilio should steal some AB's that way (no pun intended)

No.  Izturis used to be a + defender but he simply isn't anymore.  In fact, last year he was a -3.2 UZR.
While Bonifacio is not a great defender, he is equal or better than Izturis in BB% and OBP.  The terror he causes on the base paths should be the deciding factor.  Izturis does nothing well.

Your argument is poor and based on two incorrect premises:

Falsehood #1: One year of UZR data has meaningful value. It doesn't. Do some reading on UZR - due to sample size limitations you need multiple years of UZR to make an assessment or prediction. That's why ZIPs is projecting only -1 runs for 2013.

Falsehood #2: Coaches care about UZR. They don't. Coaches are idiots, many of them former players who never went to college and make judgements based on stupid things that happens on the field. Izzy still has a great reputation as a fielder - reputation is PARAMOUNT in baseball. We've seen time after time guys get chances that they shouldn't just because of how they performed in the past.

Izturis is without question a better hitter at this stage of their respective careers. The only question is his health.

#12 Point Shaver

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 05:41 PM

Only thing you have to worry about him is his health.

#13 CM52

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 05:43 PM

Izturis will definitely be the starting 2B.  Better hitter and better fielder.  Bonifacio will still have value though.  He's first in line if someone goes down in both the infield and outfield, and between injuries and days off there will likely be plenty of at bats to go around, not to mention pinch running opportunities.  Also, Rasmus and Lind can't hit lefties, so there are plenty of platoon opportunities for Bonifacio and Rajai, depending on how much we want to employ that strategy.  But Rasmus is the only average or better defensive CF on the team, so it might be tough to sit him.

#14 Emtall

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 05:53 PM

View PostCM52, on 04 March 2013 - 05:43 PM, said:

Izturis will definitely be the starting 2B.  Better hitter and better fielder.  Bonifacio will still have value though.  He's first in line if someone goes down in both the infield and outfield, and between injuries and days off there will likely be plenty of at bats to go around, not to mention pinch running opportunities.  Also, Rasmus and Lind can't hit lefties, so there are plenty of platoon opportunities for Bonifacio and Rajai, depending on how much we want to employ that strategy.  But Rasmus is the only average or better defensive CF on the team, so it might be tough to sit him.

Also, Bonafacio can't hit lefties either. He can't hit much of anything to be perfectly honest.

#15 CM52

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 06:11 PM

View PostEmtall, on 04 March 2013 - 05:53 PM, said:

View PostCM52, on 04 March 2013 - 05:43 PM, said:

Izturis will definitely be the starting 2B.  Better hitter and better fielder.  Bonifacio will still have value though.  He's first in line if someone goes down in both the infield and outfield, and between injuries and days off there will likely be plenty of at bats to go around, not to mention pinch running opportunities.  Also, Rasmus and Lind can't hit lefties, so there are plenty of platoon opportunities for Bonifacio and Rajai, depending on how much we want to employ that strategy.  But Rasmus is the only average or better defensive CF on the team, so it might be tough to sit him.

Also, Bonafacio can't hit lefties either. He can't hit much of anything to be perfectly honest.

It's nothing out of this world, but if they all revert to about their career norms then I'll take Bonifacio's .290/.337/.370 over Rasmus' .206/.285/.341 or Lind's .220/.264/.343.  Lind also has added joy of those puke-worthy numbers being propped up by his outlier career year in 2009, being the oldest of the group, and providing absolutely no value on defense or on the basepaths.

Edited by CM52, 04 March 2013 - 06:12 PM.


#16 elrey

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 07:22 PM

How is Maicer Izturis a better hitter than Bonifacio? Bonifacio hit .296 over a full season just 2 years ago. His swinging strike rate last year was just 6.9%. Bonifacio has had the better walk rates 2 of the past 3 years, the better AVG the past 3 years and the better OBP in 2 of the past 3 years. Bonifacio is the better hitter and way better baserunner while Izturis is a better defender. The starting job isn't a slam dunk for Izturis

#17 2Balls

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 07:32 PM

View PostEmtall, on 04 March 2013 - 05:35 PM, said:

View Post2Balls, on 04 March 2013 - 04:42 PM, said:

View PostEmtall, on 04 March 2013 - 04:33 PM, said:

I doubt he beats Izturis for the job. Izturis is just better at baseball. But Izturis is also injury prone, so Emilio should steal some AB's that way (no pun intended)

No.  Izturis used to be a + defender but he simply isn't anymore.  In fact, last year he was a -3.2 UZR.
While Bonifacio is not a great defender, he is equal or better than Izturis in BB% and OBP.  The terror he causes on the base paths should be the deciding factor.  Izturis does nothing well.

Your argument is poor and based on two incorrect premises:

Falsehood #1: One year of UZR data has meaningful value. It doesn't. Do some reading on UZR - due to sample size limitations you need multiple years of UZR to make an assessment or prediction. That's why ZIPs is projecting only -1 runs for 2013.

Falsehood #2: Coaches care about UZR. They don't. Coaches are idiots, many of them former players who never went to college and make judgements based on stupid things that happens on the field. Izzy still has a great reputation as a fielder - reputation is PARAMOUNT in baseball. We've seen time after time guys get chances that they shouldn't just because of how they performed in the past.

Izturis is without question a better hitter at this stage of their respective careers. The only question is his health.

True. Izturis has a negative UZR over the past two seasons. Was in the black 3 years ago in 60-something games.

#18 baltimore_boy

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 07:43 PM

View Postelrey, on 04 March 2013 - 07:22 PM, said:

How is Maicer Izturis a better hitter than Bonifacio? Bonifacio hit .296 over a full season just 2 years ago. His swinging strike rate last year was just 6.9%. Bonifacio has had the better walk rates 2 of the past 3 years, the better AVG the past 3 years and the better OBP in 2 of the past 3 years. Bonifacio is the better hitter and way better baserunner while Izturis is a better defender. The starting job isn't a slam dunk for Izturis

I don't understand it either. I'd much rather see Bonifacio out there than Izturis. The only thing Izturis has brought to the table the past 3 years was just 17 steals last year, which is small compared to what Boni could put up.
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#19 CM52

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 09:01 PM

View Postelrey, on 04 March 2013 - 07:22 PM, said:

How is Maicer Izturis a better hitter than Bonifacio? Bonifacio hit .296 over a full season just 2 years ago. His swinging strike rate last year was just 6.9%. Bonifacio has had the better walk rates 2 of the past 3 years, the better AVG the past 3 years and the better OBP in 2 of the past 3 years. Bonifacio is the better hitter and way better baserunner while Izturis is a better defender. The starting job isn't a slam dunk for Izturis

You want to bring swinging strike rates into this?  Izturis' last three years: 4.3, 4.9, 3.6.  He flat out doesn't strike out.  If Bonifacio hits like it's 2011 again then sure, let him get the job.  Izturis has outperformed him every other year Bonifacio has been in the majors.  And, for what it's worth, Izturis has massive home/away splits the last few years in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league, so there's a lot of reason to expect improvement in the AL East with as much as he puts the ball in play.  Toss in him being a better defender, and he'll begin the year as starter.  It's no slam dunk, and he won't have a long leash if he starts out the year ice cold, but it's where he'll begin the year nonetheless.


View Postbaltimore_boy, on 04 March 2013 - 07:43 PM, said:

I don't understand it either. I'd much rather see Bonifacio out there than Izturis. The only thing Izturis has brought to the table the past 3 years was just 17 steals last year, which is small compared to what Boni could put up.

I'm sure you'd rather see Bonifacio out there than Izturis.  It would be better for the Orioles.  Bonifacio's speed is actually another argument for Izturis: with his subpar hitting his speed plays better off the bench.

Edited by CM52, 04 March 2013 - 09:02 PM.


#20 Emtall

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 09:08 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 04 March 2013 - 07:43 PM, said:

View Postelrey, on 04 March 2013 - 07:22 PM, said:

How is Maicer Izturis a better hitter than Bonifacio? Bonifacio hit .296 over a full season just 2 years ago. His swinging strike rate last year was just 6.9%. Bonifacio has had the better walk rates 2 of the past 3 years, the better AVG the past 3 years and the better OBP in 2 of the past 3 years. Bonifacio is the better hitter and way better baserunner while Izturis is a better defender. The starting job isn't a slam dunk for Izturis

I don't understand it either. I'd much rather see Bonifacio out there than Izturis. The only thing Izturis has brought to the table the past 3 years was just 17 steals last year, which is small compared to what Boni could put up.

The value of stolen bases in real life just isn't that high: ~0.2 runs according to Tom Tango. Only the elite base stealers who steal 40-50 bags like Bonafacio can contribute a handful of runs or more. And in the context of a full season, that's not much. Izturis could easily trump that with his higher OBP and better defense. And coaches just prefer players like Izzy.




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