Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

Photo
- - - - -

Josh Beckett 2013 Outlook


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
68 replies to this topic

#1 Cmilne23

Cmilne23

    All-Time Great

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,023 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:33 AM

Alright, its an odd year we can roster Josh Beckett again. He has rotated good year to bad/mediocre year every season since 2005. 2005 - good, 2006 - bad, 2007 - good, 2008 - mediocre/ok, 2009 - good, 2010 - awful, 2011 - great, 2012 - awful.

Good news is he is out of Boston and back into the NL in a very pitcher friendly park, backed by a very good offense to give him support. In 7 NL starts last year he posted a 2.93 ERA with 8 K Per 9 IP. So there is already signs that he is on the comeback trail. I know a lot of people hate him, but he is going to be great value this year. Currently being drafted #65 among starters, Brandon Beachy is going over him and he is out over half the season. Could end up being one of the steals of the drafts. Thank me in September.

#2 bigge2win

bigge2win

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 925 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:04 PM

In any competitive league, half of the managers should be aware of this trend. You just need to pull the trigger before everyone else does. It'll be worth paying Top 40 SP value for him, which is around Round 12 or so depending on the size of the league.

#3 Matthias

Matthias

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,277 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:08 PM

In any competitive league, half of the managers should be aware of this trend.

I think the odd year-even year Beckett thing is more funny coincedence than anything else. But AL East -> NL West Beckett is something to be mindful of.

#4 mavsfan23

mavsfan23

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,386 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:58 PM

Just look at some of the mediocre pitchers that had a decent season in that division last year.
Baseball can't get here fast enough

#5 Wavier JunKie

Wavier JunKie

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,835 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 01:00 PM

Beckett and Fielder are the only two players I use the every other year trend on. Beckett is downright awful on even years. Fielder is good on even years but a beast on the odds.

#6 parrothead

parrothead

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,710 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 01:08 PM

He had a sub 3 ERA with the Dodgers last year, but for whatever reason in my league he is overvalued and while I would love him as a value, it likely wont happen.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#7 bigge2win

bigge2win

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 925 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 01:15 PM

Beckett and Fielder are the only two players I use the every other year trend on. Beckett is downright awful on even years. Fielder is good on even years but a beast on the odds.


I'm with you there on both players. Not to hijack this thread, but an odd year for Fielder will produce nothing less than 40 HRs, 120 RBI, and 100 runs.

#8 iAugust

iAugust

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 386 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:24 PM

I laugh at anyone who actually buys into the even-odd year things. Also the theory barely even works for him because 2008 was one of his best years pitching.

Either way I like Beckett this year. Getting out of Boston and the AL East and into Dodger Stadium and the NL West is a huge plus. He had good numbers for LA last year.

#9 CM52

CM52

    Veteran

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 270 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:44 PM

I laugh at anyone who actually buys into the even-odd year things. Also the theory barely even works for him because 2008 was one of his best years pitching.

Either way I like Beckett this year. Getting out of Boston and the AL East and into Dodger Stadium and the NL West is a huge plus. He had good numbers for LA last year.


This. His skills are in a big decline, and that is why he sucked last year, not some weird statistical aberration. His numbers will probably improve this year because of his division/league/ballpark, but only because of that.

#10 bigge2win

bigge2win

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 925 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 03:07 PM

I'm not saying I attribute his success and failure because it's strictly an odd or even year, but I will take it as it is. Maybe Beckett has a good year, feels that he can maintain that production without working at it, slacks off and struggles the following year. But after a bad year, he switches back to the mentality that he has to work hard to do well. Who knows. Beckett wasn't known to have the best work ethic or mental toughness anyway. That odd correlation holds for whatever reason, so you just enjoy the rewards if they come or dump him if they don't.

I mean, how can you explain his seasons of alternating success when he was in Boston? Goes from an era in the 3s to one in the 5s, then back to the 3s, then back to the 5s. For these kinds of things, sometimes it's better to accept the result/correlation than throw out explanations that you think are the reasons when it's all just speculation. Sure, he's in a weaker division in 2013, but what explains how he was great in 2011, 2009, 2007, etc. That trend holds for him in 2 different teams/leagues for 4+ seasons a piece. It's not as if it only happens when he switches leagues. We're here to play fantasy baseball; we're not in the front office for any team.

It's a funny dynamic where baseball statisticians try to rationalize the numbers, but baseball players are probably the most irrational and superstitious athletes. Players lean on habits and phenomena as if they were the cause of the correlation for the positive results.

Edited by bigge2win, 08 March 2013 - 03:16 PM.


#11 Damn Yankee

Damn Yankee

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 986 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 03:13 PM

Beckett and Fielder are the only two players I use the every other year trend on. Beckett is downright awful on even years. Fielder is good on even years but a beast on the odds.


I never lent credence to odd/even year stuff...and some are throwing Rios in that mix also.

Edited by Damn Yankee, 08 March 2013 - 03:14 PM.

"If it wasn't for luck, I'd win every hand" - Phil Helmuth

#12 CM52

CM52

    Veteran

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 270 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 03:45 PM

I'm not saying I attribute his success and failure because it's strictly an odd or even year, but I will take it as it is. Maybe Beckett has a good year, feels that he can maintain that production without working at it, slacks off and struggles the following year. But after a bad year, he switches back to the mentality that he has to work hard to do well. Who knows. Beckett wasn't known to have the best work ethic or mental toughness anyway. That odd correlation holds for whatever reason, so you just enjoy the rewards if they come or dump him if they don't.

I mean, how can you explain his seasons of alternating success when he was in Boston? Goes from an era in the 3s to one in the 5s, then back to the 3s, then back to the 5s. For these kinds of things, sometimes it's better to accept the result/correlation than throw out explanations that you think are the reasons when it's all just speculation. Sure, he's in a weaker division in 2013, but what explains how he was great in 2011, 2009, 2007, etc. That trend holds for him in 2 different teams/leagues for 4+ seasons a piece. It's not as if it only happens when he switches leagues. We're here to play fantasy baseball; we're not in the front office for any team.

It's a funny dynamic where baseball statisticians try to rationalize the numbers, but baseball players are probably the most irrational and superstitious athletes. Players lean on habits and phenomena as if they were the cause of the correlation for the positive results.


Or, it's just a coincidence that has no bearing on the future.

2008 his underlying peripherals were great (better K rates and BB rates than both 2007 and 2009), so the narrative of him not working hard after a good year loses a lot of credibility right there. He was simply unlucky with random variability in ERA.

2010 he had a serious back injury and played through it all year.

And now in 2012 he lost 2 miles per hour on his fastball, which is just age related decline.

Do people really think it's really anything other than coincidence that the bad years happened in even years? I mean if you take 256 players over 8 years, chances are one of them will have his 4 best seasons over the odd years and his 4 best over the even years, and chance are another one will do the exact opposite. Well there are quite a few more than 256 players in baseball. This is like watching a roulette wheel go red-black-red-black-red-black-red-black and then thinking red is now a lock because there must be something about the way this dealer is spinning it.

Edited by CM52, 08 March 2013 - 03:47 PM.


#13 iAugust

iAugust

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 386 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 01:33 AM


I'm not saying I attribute his success and failure because it's strictly an odd or even year, but I will take it as it is. Maybe Beckett has a good year, feels that he can maintain that production without working at it, slacks off and struggles the following year. But after a bad year, he switches back to the mentality that he has to work hard to do well. Who knows. Beckett wasn't known to have the best work ethic or mental toughness anyway. That odd correlation holds for whatever reason, so you just enjoy the rewards if they come or dump him if they don't.

I mean, how can you explain his seasons of alternating success when he was in Boston? Goes from an era in the 3s to one in the 5s, then back to the 3s, then back to the 5s. For these kinds of things, sometimes it's better to accept the result/correlation than throw out explanations that you think are the reasons when it's all just speculation. Sure, he's in a weaker division in 2013, but what explains how he was great in 2011, 2009, 2007, etc. That trend holds for him in 2 different teams/leagues for 4+ seasons a piece. It's not as if it only happens when he switches leagues. We're here to play fantasy baseball; we're not in the front office for any team.

It's a funny dynamic where baseball statisticians try to rationalize the numbers, but baseball players are probably the most irrational and superstitious athletes. Players lean on habits and phenomena as if they were the cause of the correlation for the positive results.


Or, it's just a coincidence that has no bearing on the future.

2008 his underlying peripherals were great (better K rates and BB rates than both 2007 and 2009), so the narrative of him not working hard after a good year loses a lot of credibility right there. He was simply unlucky with random variability in ERA.

2010 he had a serious back injury and played through it all year.

And now in 2012 he lost 2 miles per hour on his fastball, which is just age related decline.

Do people really think it's really anything other than coincidence that the bad years happened in even years? I mean if you take 256 players over 8 years, chances are one of them will have his 4 best seasons over the odd years and his 4 best over the even years, and chance are another one will do the exact opposite. Well there are quite a few more than 256 players in baseball. This is like watching a roulette wheel go red-black-red-black-red-black-red-black and then thinking red is now a lock because there must be something about the way this dealer is spinning it.


This is an example of a perfect post in a Josh Beckett thread

#14 trojans888

trojans888

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 03:58 AM

Alright, its an odd year we can roster Josh Beckett again. He has rotated good year to bad/mediocre year every season since 2005. 2005 - good, 2006 - bad, 2007 - good, 2008 - mediocre/ok, 2009 - good, 2010 - awful, 2011 - great, 2012 - awful.

Good news is he is out of Boston and back into the NL in a very pitcher friendly park, backed by a very good offense to give him support. In 7 NL starts last year he posted a 2.93 ERA with 8 K Per 9 IP. So there is already signs that he is on the comeback trail. I know a lot of people hate him, but he is going to be great value this year. Currently being drafted #65 among starters, Brandon Beachy is going over him and he is out over half the season. Could end up being one of the steals of the drafts. Thank me in September.


He's also going to be the #3 starter on the team which helps a bit at the start of the season and after the all-star break. Too bad I live/play with a SoCal crew otherwise he'd be a major steal. Just amazed when I listen to podcasts and hear his ADP and who they are comparing him too.

#15 2ndCitySox

2ndCitySox

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,537 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 03:44 PM


Alright, its an odd year we can roster Josh Beckett again. He has rotated good year to bad/mediocre year every season since 2005. 2005 - good, 2006 - bad, 2007 - good, 2008 - mediocre/ok, 2009 - good, 2010 - awful, 2011 - great, 2012 - awful.

Good news is he is out of Boston and back into the NL in a very pitcher friendly park, backed by a very good offense to give him support. In 7 NL starts last year he posted a 2.93 ERA with 8 K Per 9 IP. So there is already signs that he is on the comeback trail. I know a lot of people hate him, but he is going to be great value this year. Currently being drafted #65 among starters, Brandon Beachy is going over him and he is out over half the season. Could end up being one of the steals of the drafts. Thank me in September.


He's also going to be the #3 starter on the team which helps a bit at the start of the season and after the all-star break. Too bad I live/play with a SoCal crew otherwise he'd be a major steal. Just amazed when I listen to podcasts and hear his ADP and who they are comparing him too.


I supposed there is some upside left, but there's plenty of downside too. If you like him, I wouldn't fault you for reaching.

I like him for 14 W, 3.80, 1.20 WHIP, 5k's per game (I play H2H, so that I like looking at production per game). 5k's per game is about average.

He's in the same range as hellickson, niese, vogelsong, and dempster.
All-Icon Team:
C- Carlton Fisk
1B- Frank Thomas
2B- Ryne Sandberg
SS- Ozzie Smith
3B- Wade Boggs
CF- Rickey
LF- Kirk Gibson
RF- Chili Davis
DH- Eddie Murray

SP- Nolan Ryan
SP- Orel Herschiser
SP- Greg Maddux
SP- Roger Clemens
SP- BlackJack McDowell

RP- Eck

#16 David Light

David Light

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,018 posts

Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:28 AM

Does anybody know how his velocity has been this Spring? Last year he had a 2.5 mph drop in velocity (93.5 MPH 2011 - 91.1 MPH 2012) So it would be good to know if he's ragained the veloc.

#17 sasnumberonefan

sasnumberonefan

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,922 posts

Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:18 AM

Does anybody know how his velocity has been this Spring? Last year he had a 2.5 mph drop in velocity (93.5 MPH 2011 - 91.1 MPH 2012) So it would be good to know if he's ragained the veloc.


Wondering the same thing, though for now it looks good as he is mowing through batters this spring. Take it with a grain of salt, of course, because it is spring. But his control is there and it's nice to see. Late round flier all day.
FFB 12 Team Standard 4 Keeper lose the draft pick the keeper was taken in
QB: Romo RB: Ogbonnaya, Pierre Thomas WR: Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon (K, 16th) TE: Jimmy Graham (K, 3rd) D/ST: New England K: Nick Folk Bench: Percy Harvin (K, FA) Justin Blackmon (K, FA) Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles, Andre Brown, Danny Amendola

#18 jb_power

jb_power

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,226 posts

Posted 24 March 2013 - 09:08 PM

Does anybody know how his velocity has been this Spring? Last year he had a 2.5 mph drop in velocity (93.5 MPH 2011 - 91.1 MPH 2012) So it would be good to know if he's ragained the veloc.


I have the same question as above. Does anyone know a website or source for ST velocity?

From the RW news:


Josh Beckett gave up seven runs on six hits over four innings of work Sunday against the Athletics.
Beckett was scratched from his start Monday with flu-like symptoms, so he may not have been at full strength. He allowed two home runs and three walks before being taken out. It was his only bad start of the spring, as he entered the game with a 0.96 ERA. The Dodgers will need Beckett to get back on track with Zack Greinke (elbow) questionable for the start of the season.


Mar 24 - 9:12 PM

#19 ballfan4141

ballfan4141

    On the Ballot

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,710 posts

Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:26 AM

this guy is a wasted roster spot. just stream a pitcher for the match-up or if he is pitching good. the dodgers wasted money for nothing.

#20 Zumayaaaa

Zumayaaaa

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,917 posts

Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:31 AM

this guy is a wasted roster spot. just stream a pitcher for the match-up or if he is pitching good. the dodgers wasted money for nothing.


Good analysis he sure was useless at the end of last season :rolleyes: