Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

* * * * * 3 votes

Assessing Injury Risks with Pitchers


  • Please log in to reply
127 replies to this topic

#21 bigge2win

bigge2win

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 920 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 March 2013 - 10:57 PM

Thanks for the response to my previous question.

What do you think of the mechanics for these pitchers:
Justin Verlander
Kris Medlen (I've read somewhere that his mechanics/style compare to Cliff Lee's)
Aroldis Chapman
Matt Moore

#22 Red Sox Nation

Red Sox Nation

    On the Ballot

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,473 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 March 2013 - 10:59 PM

Great post, what are your thoughts on Adam Wainwright entering his 2nd season post-tj? And a horse like Verlander who consistently throws 230ish innings? I understand you saying it's not the amount of innings, but about 950 in 4 years is a ton.

Great post though, you really know your stuff. I also read that Bumgarner's velocity did dip a lot down the stretch, so if it does not rebound this spring he is probably an avoid guy.

#23 Bruz

Bruz

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:06 PM

 jb_power, on 08 March 2013 - 10:50 PM, said:

 Bruz, on 08 March 2013 - 10:47 PM, said:

 jb_power, on 08 March 2013 - 10:33 PM, said:

Thanks for the "supinate" explanation Bruz.  Now I finally understand what that means.

I've heard MadBum throws a high % of sliders but I've also heard that they are actually cutters.  What's the true scoop?

He actually throws both... Marcum used to throw strictly a slider... which is usually around 80 MPH and has a bit more movement from right to left.  The cutter is usually around 84 MPH or so...with a less drastic break. If you watch the video of him on MLB.com's fantasy preview you can see the difference between the two pitches.

He has seen his fastball decline 3 MPH from it's peak, probably due to the wear and tear he has put on his shoulder. I think that Marcum's usage of the cutter is probably his only chance of staying healthy. The slider however, is probably his only chance at staying successful.  Quite a conundrum...

Thanks for the analysis on Marcum ... but I was actually asking about Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner definitely throws a slider, so let's be clear on that.  I have never seen him throw anything that resembles a cutter, although I admit, I haven't seen every one of his starts. People probably call it a cutter because of its velocity (87mph) which is hard for a guy who only throws 91-92 with his fastball.  There is one main reason that I know it is a slider.  The movement.  No one except Mariano Rivera can get that kind of break on a pitch without supinating their forearm/wrist.  If you watch MadBum in slow-mo you can clearly see his wrist turning over when delivering the pitch, thus, it is truly a slider. I think Bumgarner

Bumgarner's delivery in itself, as i mentioned before is a bit troubling because of how he throws across his body and does not keep his shoulder line intact and moving towards home-plate but that's a whole different story...

I see him eventually having shoulder trouble down the road, mainly because of his mechanics.  Th high usage of sliders also makes him a higher risk but his delivery of the pitch is decently sound...

My take: I do not own him in any leagues, nor do i plan on it.  Just not a risk I would recommend taking, but if i have him in a keeper league, i wouldn't necessarily run to trade him because he does do a lot of things right.
12 Team H2H Points League (5 Keeper, 15 start max per week)

C- Mesoraco, 1B-Adams, 2B-Kipnis, 3B-Arenado, SS-Alcantara
OF-Brantley, OF-Bruce, OF-Holliday, OF-Hamilton, UTIL-Polanco
SP-Wainwright, Price, Lee, Shields, Ross, Archer, Alvarez, Arrieta, Nelson, Eovaldi
CL-Robertson, G. Holland, Hawkins, Giles
DL-D. Holland

#24 Bruz

Bruz

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:21 PM

 bigge2win, on 08 March 2013 - 10:57 PM, said:

Thanks for the response to my previous question.

What do you think of the mechanics for these pitchers:

Justin Verlander - AWESOME arm swing... keeps everything going in a straight line to homeplate and this is part of the reason why he can throw 100 mph in the 9th inning... He makes the most of his momentum.  Verlander does trouble me a bit with his arm angle.  I feel okay with where it is at right now, but it is something that I can see eventually leading to his demise, a la Doc Halladay.  However, like Halladay, I totally expect JV to enjoy another 4-5 successful seasons before we see the ill effects. Injury risk - Low to moderate but i am not scared at all by him.

Kris Medlen - I think Medlen's mechanics are okay.  He could do a better job of getting his throwing hand a little higher above his elbow when his stride foot lands... I can't find any footage of him pre-tommy john to analyze, but perhaps that is a correction he has made after the fact.  I don't love his mechanics, but I don't see anything glaring that jumps out at me.  Plus, being post TJ, he is probably pretty safe from injury for the next few years. Injury risk - low.

Aroldis Chapman - Very nice mechanics. Uses his length very well.  Long stride could be an issue with his lower back and oblique but not something anyone is going to worry about.  I like how he gathers his weight over his plant leg and is compact before exploding towards the plate.  Injury risk with him is moderate because this season we will be seeing a lot more of his slider in a starting role.  I am eager to see his arm action on that pitch... Overall though, I definitely like his mechanics.

Matt Moore - Nice mechanics... Only downside is that he closes himself off a bit with his shoulder line, similar to Bumgarner... I think he will be okay, but it wouldnt shock me if his shoulder acted up at some point.  I'd say his injury risk is closer to low than moderate.

Edited by Bruz, 08 March 2013 - 11:21 PM.

12 Team H2H Points League (5 Keeper, 15 start max per week)

C- Mesoraco, 1B-Adams, 2B-Kipnis, 3B-Arenado, SS-Alcantara
OF-Brantley, OF-Bruce, OF-Holliday, OF-Hamilton, UTIL-Polanco
SP-Wainwright, Price, Lee, Shields, Ross, Archer, Alvarez, Arrieta, Nelson, Eovaldi
CL-Robertson, G. Holland, Hawkins, Giles
DL-D. Holland

#25 Bruz

Bruz

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:26 PM

 Red Sox Nation, on 08 March 2013 - 10:59 PM, said:

Great post, what are your thoughts on Adam Wainwright entering his 2nd season post-tj? And a horse like Verlander who consistently throws 230ish innings? I understand you saying it's not the amount of innings, but about 950 in 4 years is a ton.

Great post though, you really know your stuff. I also read that Bumgarner's velocity did dip a lot down the stretch, so if it does not rebound this spring he is probably an avoid guy.

Wainwright has terrible mechanics... He practices the inverted W which is basically a death sentance to pitchers arms... However, Wainwright is post tommy john... It seems like his arm has responded well to the surgery, as his velocity has come back.  I think Waino should be good to go for the foreseeable future.  It took him 29 years to blow out his UCL throwing the way he has... This new tendon should buy him at least another 4 years...

Here is a great piece from Chris O'Leary with slow motion images to show you exactly what I mean by the inverted W.  It's not pretty.

http://www.chrisolea...tInvertedW.html
12 Team H2H Points League (5 Keeper, 15 start max per week)

C- Mesoraco, 1B-Adams, 2B-Kipnis, 3B-Arenado, SS-Alcantara
OF-Brantley, OF-Bruce, OF-Holliday, OF-Hamilton, UTIL-Polanco
SP-Wainwright, Price, Lee, Shields, Ross, Archer, Alvarez, Arrieta, Nelson, Eovaldi
CL-Robertson, G. Holland, Hawkins, Giles
DL-D. Holland

#26 lipitorkid

lipitorkid

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,049 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:36 PM

Thanks Bruz this is fantastic info:

If any of you want more detailed reading about mechanics I HIGHLY recommend Tom House and Doug Thorburg's book:

Arm Action, Arm Path and the Perfect Pitch

I read it two years ago and it blew my mind (I'm just an ordinary dad/youth coach and my son pitches occasionally) After you read this book you just shake your head at all the bad info kids get in their formative years by well-intentioned but wrong youth coaches. In fact I'd say the best thing is to hope your kid doesn't pitch until HS and he hopefully finds a good pitching coach.

Also Doug Thorburg is a really nice guy and took the time to explain some of the finer points of mechanics via Twitter.

But I'm glad we have our own mechanics expert here on RotoWorld.
Baseball Team: Roto 5x5 Keeper League: Best players on my team: Puig/Cargo/Posey/Jose Fernandez updated 4/14

#27 Blood Brother

Blood Brother

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,899 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:CA

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:44 PM

I've gotten into pitching mechanics over the last few years, mainly for helping me in assessing what arms I want to invest in for the long haul for my dynasty squad. Good to see that I'm on the right track with my assessments when reading what Bruz has had to say regarding some guys
16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS), Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Joe Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System:  Andrew Heaney (MIA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)

#28 Bruz

Bruz

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:50 PM

Top 10 Injury Risks: (in no order)
- C.J. Wilson
-Jeff Samardzija
-Brandon Morrow
-Homer Bailey
-Josh Johnson
-Jake Peavy
-Madison Bumgarner
-Roy Halladay
-Gio Gonzalez
-Phil Hughes

Injury Risks down the line (post TJ guys who haven't corrected what they do wrong)
New tendon will hold up but usually only have a 5-10 year shelf life IF the surgery takes well
-Strasburg
-Parker
-Wainwright
-Zimmermann
12 Team H2H Points League (5 Keeper, 15 start max per week)

C- Mesoraco, 1B-Adams, 2B-Kipnis, 3B-Arenado, SS-Alcantara
OF-Brantley, OF-Bruce, OF-Holliday, OF-Hamilton, UTIL-Polanco
SP-Wainwright, Price, Lee, Shields, Ross, Archer, Alvarez, Arrieta, Nelson, Eovaldi
CL-Robertson, G. Holland, Hawkins, Giles
DL-D. Holland

#29 natti

natti

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,184 posts
  • Gender:Female

Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:52 PM

 Bruz, on 08 March 2013 - 11:50 PM, said:

Top 10 Injury Risks: (in no order)
- C.J. Wilson
-Jeff Samardzija
-Brandon Morrow
-Homer Bailey
-Josh Johnson
-Jake Peavy
-Madison Bumgarner
-Roy Halladay
-Gio Gonzalez
-Phil Hughes

Injury Risks down the line (post TJ guys who haven't corrected what they do wrong)
New tendon will hold up but usually only have a 5-10 year shelf life IF the surgery takes well
-Strasburg
-Parker
-Wainwright
-Zimmermann

thanks for doing this for us, bruz! could you speak a bit about chris sale? he seems to be thought of as being one of the biggest injury risks. however, i don't see him on your list

#30 Bruz

Bruz

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:08 AM

Top Injury Risks: (in no order)
- C.J. Wilson
-Jeff Samardzija
-Brandon Morrow
-Homer Bailey
-Josh Johnson
-Jake Peavy
-Madison Bumgarner
-Roy Halladay
-Gio Gonzalez
-Phil Hughes
-Chris Sale
-Max Scherzer
-Matt Garza
-Felix Doubront
-Jaime Garcia

Just made it top 15... Chris Sale might be #1 on my list and I don't know how i left him off in the first place...

Injury Risks down the line (post TJ guys who haven't corrected what they do wrong)
New tendon will hold up but usually only have a 5-10 year shelf life IF the surgery takes well
-Strasburg
-Parker
-Wainwright
-Zimmermann
12 Team H2H Points League (5 Keeper, 15 start max per week)

C- Mesoraco, 1B-Adams, 2B-Kipnis, 3B-Arenado, SS-Alcantara
OF-Brantley, OF-Bruce, OF-Holliday, OF-Hamilton, UTIL-Polanco
SP-Wainwright, Price, Lee, Shields, Ross, Archer, Alvarez, Arrieta, Nelson, Eovaldi
CL-Robertson, G. Holland, Hawkins, Giles
DL-D. Holland

#31 Bruz

Bruz

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:10 AM

Quote

thanks for doing this for us, bruz! could you speak a bit about chris sale? he seems to be thought of as being one of the biggest injury risks. however, i don't see him on your list

Chris Sale really has awful mechanics... He is herky-jerky and practices the inverted W maybe more drastically than any pitcher in the league. I really don't like anything about his delivery other than the deceptiveness it gives him. Can't see him lasting very long throwing that way...
12 Team H2H Points League (5 Keeper, 15 start max per week)

C- Mesoraco, 1B-Adams, 2B-Kipnis, 3B-Arenado, SS-Alcantara
OF-Brantley, OF-Bruce, OF-Holliday, OF-Hamilton, UTIL-Polanco
SP-Wainwright, Price, Lee, Shields, Ross, Archer, Alvarez, Arrieta, Nelson, Eovaldi
CL-Robertson, G. Holland, Hawkins, Giles
DL-D. Holland

#32 bigge2win

bigge2win

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 920 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:51 AM

I take it that you would think Greg Maddux has near perfect mechanics. Which of the leagues top SPs has the closest mechanics to him? Also, are there any active pitchers who have similar mechanics to Maddux, but are nowhere as successful? It'd be interesting to see the flip side of the argument - a mediocre pitcher with good mechanics rather than a successful one with poor mechanics.

#33 Red Sox Nation

Red Sox Nation

    On the Ballot

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,473 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:52 AM

Here's one for you: how about Yu Darvish?

#34 Cmilne23

Cmilne23

    All-Time Great

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,843 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:54 AM

 Bruz, on 09 March 2013 - 12:08 AM, said:

Top Injury Risks: (in no order)
- C.J. Wilson
-Jeff Samardzija
-Brandon Morrow
-Homer Bailey
-Josh Johnson
-Jake Peavy
-Madison Bumgarner
-Roy Halladay
-Gio Gonzalez
-Phil Hughes
-Chris Sale
-Max Scherzer
-Matt Garza
-Felix Doubront
-Jaime Garcia

Just made it top 15... Chris Sale might be #1 on my list and I don't know how i left him off in the first place...

Injury Risks down the line (post TJ guys who haven't corrected what they do wrong)
New tendon will hold up but usually only have a 5-10 year shelf life IF the surgery takes well
-Strasburg
-Parker
-Wainwright
-Zimmermann

I am going to add one to your list.  Bud Norris.  I this guy blows out his arm in the near future.  He puts a ton of stress on his elbow with his slider and he throws an obsence amount of them.  He is pretty much a 2 pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider only.  Very few can throw that many sliders for as many years in a row as he has and dodge major injury.  He desperately needs to add an effective change up or cutter he can throw 15-20% of the time to lower the stress on his elbow.

#35 nbafan_123

nbafan_123

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,139 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:58 AM

I will Echo everyone else who said that this is a great post, Bruz. Looking forward to your list.

A few guys of the top of my head that I am intrested in are Johanan Santana, Josh Johnson and Dickey. The First 2 have had a lot of injuries, so I'd assume they have 1 or more of the flaws you mentioned.

As for Dickey, I am really intrested in him as I am a jays fan and there is a lot of buzz around him. But there are a lot of questions, so I wonder if there is anything in his delivery and mechanics that is a concern, especially since he throws the knuckle ball. Thanks.

#36 iAugust

iAugust

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 386 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 02:35 AM

The guy that I am most interested in is Trevor Bauer. For a guy who claims to know so much about and be so adamant about his mechanics, they've always reminded me of Lincecum's. What do you think about his?

#37 iAugust

iAugust

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 386 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 02:35 AM

Also if you wouldn't mind talking about Ubaldo Jimenez that would be great too. Obviously they are very bad but what does he do specifically that is so bad?

#38 NYSportsfan24

NYSportsfan24

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,218 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 07:06 AM

 Bruz, on 09 March 2013 - 12:08 AM, said:

Top Injury Risks: (in no order)
- C.J. Wilson
-Jeff Samardzija
-Brandon Morrow
-Homer Bailey
-Josh Johnson
-Jake Peavy
-Madison Bumgarner
-Roy Halladay
-Gio Gonzalez
-Phil Hughes
-Chris Sale
-Max Scherzer
-Matt Garza
-Felix Doubront
-Jaime Garcia

Just made it top 15... Chris Sale might be #1 on my list and I don't know how i left him off in the first place...

Injury Risks down the line (post TJ guys who haven't corrected what they do wrong)
New tendon will hold up but usually only have a 5-10 year shelf life IF the surgery takes well
-Strasburg
-Parker
-Wainwright
-Zimmermann

Ugghh. I have 3 redraft teams drafted and on each one, I have some combo of 3 guys from these lists. Not good.

#39 ballfan4141

ballfan4141

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,590 posts

Posted 09 March 2013 - 07:08 AM

I got samardzija.......hopefully he is good for one year.

#40 yoda

yoda

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,985 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:San Diego

Posted 09 March 2013 - 07:39 AM

I agree to a certain degree.  However, the more you throw the more wear and tear on your arm, elbow, shoulder, hip, legs, etc.  Biomechanics is a small part of the equation and if you could easily predict injuries then you'd make a fortune.  What gets overlooked is the fact that some pitchers who are so in tune with their body that they know exactly how far to push when they are not 100%. These guys tend to stay healthy and preserve their careers.  I believe that the risk for injuries is at its peak when a pitcher is tired and pushes himself too hard, too long, and too often.  Good discussion.

Edited by yoda, 09 March 2013 - 07:40 AM.

www. drafttracker.net




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users