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Matt Holliday 2013 Outlook


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#1 cmm06h

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 08:24 PM

I know he battled though injuries last year but still amounted to solid numbers. He's incredibly consistent  and isn't that old (33). What does everyone think?
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C- Wilin Rosario
1B - Paul Goldschmidt
2B - Aaron Hill
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Ben Zobrist
OF - Kole Calhoun
OF - Melky Cabrera
OF - Shin Soo Choo
OF - Yangervis Solarte
UT - David Ortiz
BE - Devin Mesoraco

SP - James Shields, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Drew Hutchison, Erik Bedard, Gavin Floyd
RP - Grant Balfour
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DL - Derek Holland

#2 ludawg23

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 08:35 PM

unsexy yet safe, productive player.  Undervalued draft day but needs to stay on the field.

Would definitely take him on my squad.  Adds some stability to a lineup...
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C - Lucroy
1st - V-Mart
2nd - Kipnis
SS - Castro
3rd - Aramis
OF - Trout, Choo, Bautisa
UTIL - Pujols, Panda, Lind
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SP - Anibal, Shields, Iwakumi, Cashner, Samardzija, E. Santana, Masterson, Hudson, McHugh
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#3 clutchcityfan

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 08:48 PM

Very boring but still very good.

Close to a 100 R and RBI with 26 HR's. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

#4 ipstaff

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 09:13 PM

View Postludawg23, on 08 March 2013 - 08:35 PM, said:

unsexy yet safe, productive player.  Undervalued draft day but needs to stay on the field.

Would definitely take him on my squad.  Adds some stability to a lineup...

Yet another one of those boring ole' consistency guys, like Brandon Phillips, who are undervalued by the hype train due to lack of TREMENDOUS UPSIDE POTENTIAL (!!!) but who give you really nice stats you can practically chisel in stone.

Now, there are a few caveats with Holliday.  He's aging a bit (33 this season), he's no longer a double-digit SB guy, he's more of a .290 hitter than a .320 hitter now, and last season continued a 3 year slight downward trend in OPS (from .922 to .912 to .877).  He may not get back to the .900+ OPS range as he ages.  But you can more or less take .285+ (his career low BA is .290), 25 HR, 95 R, and 100 RBI to the bank.

The only thing I don't love about Holliday is that, unlike Phillips, I'm not sure he's actually undervalued in drafts, even if he's not talked about much anymore.  His ADP seems to reflect his "safety" - he's going in the mid-40s, just behind Jay Bruce (less BA, more HR, otherwise similar), around Billy Butler (who may be becoming a new Matt Holliday, but with 1B eligibility), Phillips (solid in a 2B wasteland), and just ahead of 3Bs Headley (less proven, but more SB potential and 3B eligibility) and Zimmerman (similar production at 3B).  Feels like his ADP is still based on a guy who has in the past hit 30+ HR when he's unlikely to get back to that point again.

I'm not sure, for that early 40s ADP, that I wouldn't rather wait 10 picks for Cespedes, or 15 picks for his teammate Allen Craig.  But if I'm chasing risky folks elsewhere in my lineup, I'd certainly look at a guy like Holliday for the sake of having a few more-sure things to mix in with those high-risk/high-upside guys.

#5 RADickey4Prez

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 11:10 PM

yawn.

#6 Wombat

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 02:53 AM

I honestly think I like Craig more for this year especially if Craig can play 150 games.  He was pretty streaky last year, he had a few months where he was just smoking hot but the injuries really took their toll especially at the end of the year.  I still would bet on more of the same this year, but I agree that he's more of a .290 hitter at this point, he's striking out a lot more the last few years.  He will always have a high BABIP though because he destroys ground balls so they get through the infield way more than an average ground ball.  Check on fangraphs for BABIP's on ground balls the last few years, Holliday is always in the top few guys.

#7 Big Tuna

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:32 AM

The yawn train is on for Holliday and I'm on board...usually goes mid $30s in my auction - grabbed for $25....great roto guy you can plug in and write n his statline for the year.

#8 Stickfig13

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:11 AM

Look him in for his usual stat line. Gotta stay healthy

#9 Matthew

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:15 AM

I've owned Holliday in every league ever since I traded Chris Young (Mr. Tall Fastball) for him back in like, 2007.

Just plug him in and forget. And in walks/OBP formats this guy is gold.

Edited by Matthew, 25 March 2013 - 11:15 AM.


#10 cymbaline

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 12:06 PM

Yes, he's boring to own except when he's in the OF.

Some entertaining things happen with this guy on defense.  Moth flying into his ear or muffing a can-of-corn flyball in the playoffs.

I think he's underrated and could easily outperform a lot of the higher ranked hyped and/or upside guys at OF like Harper, Cespedes, Hayward, B-Upton, Jones, or Ellsbury.

Edited by cymbaline, 25 March 2013 - 12:06 PM.


#11 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 10:29 PM

BOOM.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#12 Obscene_Domino

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 10:31 PM

That was a line drive shot. Really reached out of the zone for it. Showed great power there.
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#13 Stickfig13

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 11:16 PM

All he does is mash every damn year.

#14 Smallball

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 11:27 PM

That ball was like 3 inches above the plate, he muscled that out.  Wow.

#15 valensi24

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 01:25 AM

Holliday batting 3rd all year, with Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran, and Yadier Molina all batting behind him, i'm pretty confident Holliday will exceed 100 runs scored.  i just hope holliday exceeds 30HR.  i'm hoping for .310AVG / 32HR / 110RBI / 105R  and over .900 OPS

#16 Caelum

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 04:01 AM

Those numbers are possible if he plays 150 games -- except possibly the 32 home runs. He hasn't hit more than 28 since 2007, helped by being in Colorado. He's more of a really strong line-drive hitter.
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1B: Pujols; 2B: Alcantara; SS: H. Ramirez; 3B: Sandoval
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#17 ludawg23

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 08:12 AM

good ole reliable.  Seems valued every year during draft day and just produces.

He won't hit .300 anymore but he'll get pretty close.  I just hope he stays healthy as he's had some minor injuries the past few seasons but as long as he's in the lineup...he'll produce.  A solid OF2...
12 team 5x5 H2H League

C - Lucroy
1st - V-Mart
2nd - Kipnis
SS - Castro
3rd - Aramis
OF - Trout, Choo, Bautisa
UTIL - Pujols, Panda, Lind
BENCH - Mesoraco, R. Davis, Taveras

SP - Anibal, Shields, Iwakumi, Cashner, Samardzija, E. Santana, Masterson, Hudson, McHugh
RP - Soria, Doolittle, Casilla, McGee

#18 NyMetsfan5

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 10:26 AM

View Postludawg23, on 03 April 2013 - 08:12 AM, said:

good ole reliable.  Seems valued every year during draft day and just produces.

He won't hit .300 anymore but he'll get pretty close.  I just hope he stays healthy as he's had some minor injuries the past few seasons but as long as he's in the lineup...he'll produce.  A solid OF2...
I think he can produce OF1 numbers this year with that type of protection in the Cardinals lineup and just the fact that he mashes year in and year out.
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#19 PPolanco

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 11:15 AM

do people expect him to play today? I've noticed he sits out almost every Sunday and this nightcap is making my lineup decision quite difficult
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#20 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:30 PM

View PostPPolanco, on 21 April 2013 - 11:15 AM, said:

do people expect him to play today? I've noticed he sits out almost every Sunday and this nightcap is making my lineup decision quite difficult

Following that trend, I'd say there's a good chance he sits. Also, his career numbers against Kyle Kendrick are horrible (2 for 18). I'm playing it safe and benching him for another OF.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well




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