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Adam Dunn 2013 Outlook


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#1 octapuss

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 07:12 AM

Funny. Last year there was 33 pages dedicated to this lug. This year the thread hasnt even been started. I guess thats what you get when you hit 41 HR and strikeout 222 times.


What to do with this guy? Yes he will hit you a bunch of bombs. Yes he will strike out a ton. If it is a roto league you can kind of stomach it. If it is a head to head league, any given week he can kill ya. Bench material. Are you going to roster him?
16 Team Dynasty League /  Weekly Head 2 Head / 14 by 14 Roto

C-   Lucroy
1B - Gonzalez, Napoli, Adams
2B - Altuve
3B - Longoria
SS - Reyes, Owings
LF - Gordon
CF - Jennings, Martin
RF - Markikis

DL -

SP - Cobb, A. Sanchez, Salazar, Niese, Fister, Wheeler, Kennedy
RP - Street, Perkins, Wilson

Batting - 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, R, RBI, SB, HBP, IBB,   / (negative points)  K, GIDP, CS, E
Pitching - IP, W, SV, K, HD, CG, SO / (negative points) BB, HB, ER, L, BS, H, WP

#2 Floor Pie

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:36 AM

A legit player in OBP leagues . . .

#3 uspsjeter2

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:52 AM

Totally disagree Dunn has value, his batting average is a killer either way, roto or H2H.
His OPS for the last 2 1/2 seasons combined is below league-average, even with 2 38+ HR seasons.
His K rate and low contact rate make him unrosterable.
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#4 motown magic

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 10:47 AM

Hmmm. Dunn hit 41 hrs and strikes out a ton. Agree. But comes much cheaper a less deep spot than somebody that goes much higher and plays a deeper spot. Curtis Granderson. When it comes to standard 5x5 AL only leagues auction or snake. Is CG really worth that much more or worth taking that much earlier than Dunn? I don't think he is .
I happen to think Dunn bounces back in BA this year and hits more in the .250 range. I'll take 38-40/90-100 from a corner spot much later.
Would I own Dunn? If I still have a spot later yes. Would I own Granderson ? Yes but no way I grab him early as his ADP. I bid him up and let somebody else pay.
I realize we are talking about Dunn but wanted to use CG to compare. Mark Reynolds is another thats grabbed way to early because he plays third base. Is he better than Dunn?

Edited by motown magic, 09 March 2013 - 10:49 AM.


#5 uspsjeter2

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 11:14 AM

Dunn had his highest HR/FB rate of his career, over 29%. Does he repeat that?
His composite BA projection between Steamer, Bill James, Oliver and Zips is about .200 over 500 or so AB.
That's 100 total hits to draw 40 HR from. Can he do that?
What if he only hits 32 HR? At least Granderson chips in  a few steals, Dunn has 2 total in 4 seasons.

And the BA drain, if it takes about .265 to finish in the top half of your roto league, you need 1325 hits over 5000 AB to bat to generate that average. You'll need 1225 hits out of your other 4500 AB to compensate for Dunn. That means everybody else has to hit .273 combined. He's an 8 point AVG drain by himself. .273 wins most leagues in AVG.

I'm not a buyer.
"A Humble Man of Grace and Dignity. A Captain Who Led by Example. Proud of the Pinstripes Tradition and Dedicated to the Pursuit of Excellence. A Yankee Forever."  Don Mattingly's plaque in Monument Park

#6 sayhey58

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 11:29 AM

View Postoctapuss, on 09 March 2013 - 07:12 AM, said:

Funny. Last year there was 33 pages dedicated to this lug. This year the thread hasnt even been started. I guess thats what you get when you hit 41 HR and strikeout 222 times.


What to do with this guy? Yes he will hit you a bunch of bombs. Yes he will strike out a ton. If it is a roto league you can kind of stomach it. If it is a head to head league, any given week he can kill ya. Bench material. Are you going to roster him?


No way in hell.......

#7 Cmilne23

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 11:36 AM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 09 March 2013 - 11:14 AM, said:

Dunn had his highest HR/FB rate of his career, over 29%. Does he repeat that?
His composite BA projection between Steamer, Bill James, Oliver and Zips is about .200 over 500 or so AB.
That's 100 total hits to draw 40 HR from. Can he do that?
What if he only hits 32 HR? At least Granderson chips in  a few steals, Dunn has 2 total in 4 seasons.

And the BA drain, if it takes about .265 to finish in the top half of your roto league, you need 1325 hits over 5000 AB to bat to generate that average. You'll need 1225 hits out of your other 4500 AB to compensate for Dunn. That means everybody else has to hit .273 combined. He's an 8 point AVG drain by himself. .273 wins most leagues in AVG.

I'm not a buyer.

I`m not as skeptical of his HR rate.  He hits in a bandbox.  Pop ups go for HRs in that stadium.  Sabermetrics do not take into account hitting environment.  Dunn is fortunate enough to hit half his games in Comisky Park-US Celleur-Whatever the F its called now-Park.  In OBP leagues the guy has value.  .333 OBP is not stellar, but its not a killer either.  In an average league I would not roster him though.  His BA in baseball, is like what Dwight Howards FTs are for someone who plays fantasy basketball.  Very hard to overcome that .200 clip in a roto league and still maintain a decent point total in average in a league.

#8 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 02:55 PM

I'll be picking him around the 12th and loving it. My league counts BB, so between his HRs and BBs, he's well worth rostering.
12-Team H2H Re-Draft 6x6 (Runs, AVG, HRs, RBIs, BBs, Steals) (Ws, Ls, Ks, ERA, WHIP, Saves)

C Russell Martin ©
1B Adrian Gonzalez (1B) || Adam Dunn (1B, LF) || Mitch Moreland (1B)
2B Howie Kendrick (2B)
3B Nolan Arenado (3B) || Hanley Ramirez (3B, SS) || Will Middlebrooks (3B)
SS Jimmy Rollins (SS)
LF Carlos Gonzalez (LF) || Michael Saunders (LF, CF, RF)
CF Mike Trout (LF, CF) || Dexter Fowler (CF)
RF Jose Bautista (RF) || Daniel Nava (LF, RF)

SP Cole Hamels || Jeff Samardzija || Lance Lynn || Mike Minor || Jeff Locke || Jeremy Hellickson || David Phelps || Bartolo Colon || Kevin Gausman
RP Tom Wilhelmsen || Glen Perkins

My credentials: Data analyst as my day job, have played fantasy baseball for two seasons, first-place in 10-team Roto my first season and first-place in 12-team H2H my second season.

#9 AnonymousRob

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 03:08 PM

Depends on your team makeup and scoring system. In most settings I can't get on board with this guy being an overall asset to an owner. The home runs are great but it gets awfully ugly after that. If you go for pitching early or for some other reason end up with a lot of power starved slap hitters, Dunn would be a godsend for your team. Aside from that? Pass.
Want help in your A/C threads? Give details!!! Keeper/dynasty/redraft, ppr, league size, who is on your roster, roto/H2H, scoring system, etc.

#10 motown magic

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 03:45 PM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 09 March 2013 - 11:14 AM, said:

Dunn had his highest HR/FB rate of his career, over 29%. Does he repeat that?
His composite BA projection between Steamer, Bill James, Oliver and Zips is about .200 over 500 or so AB.
That's 100 total hits to draw 40 HR from. Can he do that?
What if he only hits 32 HR? At least Granderson chips in  a few steals, Dunn has 2 total in 4 seasons.

And the BA drain, if it takes about .265 to finish in the top half of your roto league, you need 1325 hits over 5000 AB to bat to generate that average. You'll need 1225 hits out of your other 4500 AB to compensate for Dunn. That means everybody else has to hit .273 combined. He's an 8 point AVG drain by himself. .273 wins most leagues in AVG.

I'm not a buyer.


Sure Granderson pitches in a few steals. But where is he being drafted in comparison to Dunn ? What player could you get in that spot if you didn't draft Granderson there? And still be able to get Dunn and his 35 hrs later.

#11 djmax101

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 11:41 PM

Dunn was pretty damn valuable last year in H2H points.
10 team H2H Points. The "I waited until round 8 to draft a pitcher" squad.
C: Carlos Santana / 1B: Adrian Gonalez / 2B: Dustin Pedroia / SS: Ian Desmond / 3B: Brett Lawrie / MI: Brad Miller / CI: Jose Abreu /
OF: Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Mark Trumbo, Melky Cabrera, Michael Morse / Util: Adam LaRoche / Bench/DL: Josh Hamilton, Billy Hamilton /
SP: Jordan Zimmerman, Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Danny Salazar, Clay Buchholz, Francisco Liriano, Yordano Ventura, Scott Kazmir / RP: Koji Uehara, Jason Grilli, Tanner Roark

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SP: Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Masahiro Tanaka, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Danny Salazar, Francisco Liriano, Scott Kazmir, Tyler Skaggs /
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, Jason Grilli, David Robertson

#12 Stickfig13

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:16 AM

You know what you're getting with Dunn. A tons of bombs, walks and strikeouts. Take it or leave it

#13 TheJuggernautBTCH

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:31 AM

I drafted him after i had trout/Ichiro/S.Perez/Jones/Andrus/Altuve on my team...hoping he doesnt kill my overall average but i needed pop.....i might try to bench him on heavy lefty weeks as he hit a robust .211 against righties!....smokin!!!!
$260 12 Team Auciton w/3 keepers
Players in Bold Kept - can have player for total of 3 years
Players in Red cannot be kept after this year.
Keeper Escalation of $3 first year; $6 next
w- waiver wire or acquired in a trade/cannot be kept
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2b(1) - Carpenter ($13)
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MI (1) Peralta (w)
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U(1) - Smoak ($1)
OF(5) -Trout ($10); A.Jones ($29); Choo ($25); Pagan ($1); Hunter(w)
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Bench - O.Tavares ($1); Polanco ($1); A.Bradley ($1); A. Guerrero ($1); Valverde(w), Minor ($11)
DL- Ramos ($1)

#14 edwin23

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 12:59 PM

An asset in leagues that count walks, a liability in leagues that don't.
OF: Justin Upton

#15 Wombat

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:42 AM

Is there any way he bounces back to some degree in average? Before the last couple years he would usually hit .260 or something, now the dude can barely keep it above .200.

#16 mevins31

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 02:22 AM

View PostWombat, on 26 March 2013 - 01:42 AM, said:

Is there any way he bounces back to some degree in average? Before the last couple years he would usually hit .260 or something, now the dude can barely keep it above .200.

Hit .260 once in his career, it was his career year 2004. I lived in Cincinnati and saw him every day that summer. He was something to marvel at then.

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#17 South Jersey Bombers

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 09:16 AM

Scooped him up in the 15th round!!! Our league has OBP to, so his horrible average wont kill my squad this year, very very happy with the value here.
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#18 edwin23

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:08 AM

View PostSouth Jersey Bombers, on 26 March 2013 - 09:16 AM, said:

Scooped him up in the 15th round!!! Our league has OBP to, so his horrible average wont kill my squad this year, very very happy with the value here.

Extremely late, especially if OBP is REPLACING average.

90-40-90 .333

Top 10 1B easily in that format
OF: Justin Upton

#19 mevins31

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:50 AM

I'm going to roster Dunn as long as I can. I will play him only when I really like the matchup. Balance out the walks category hopefully. It would be nice if he has a decent April (he typically starts strong) and could draw some kind of value or interest
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#20 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:00 PM

I pretty much end up with this guy every year ... He fell so far in my 14 teamer I had to grab him

Pencil him in for 35-40HR or have I missed something?




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