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Kelly Johnson 2013 Outlook


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#1 accobra_kid

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 06:13 PM

Kelly Johnson signed a one-year, $2.45M deal with the Rays in the offseason.  He is expected to be their everyday 2B in 2013, but is also expected to see a bit of time in the corner outfield spots and spell James Loney at 1B on occasion.

As a Jays fan, his tenure on our team was kind of disappointing.  I was hoping for more of his 2010 production, when he posted a sexy 26/71/13 line over 585 AB.  Instead, his numbers were remarkably similar to what he put up in 2011, and we had to sit back and watch with envy as Aaron Hill raked in the desert.

I think he makes for somewhat of a decent rebound candidate in larger (14+ team) leagues and AL only formats.  Current average draft position is 259, and I see him as the last guy on a cusp of suitable 2B options before the bottom really falls out at that position (Beckham, Roberts, Infante, etc).

#2 fightoffyourdemons

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 12:34 PM

Is this kid back?  His avg doesn't look great, but his OBP and BB% are really nice so far

#3 placeholder

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 09:22 AM

He looks great lately, I'm thinking he's good for 20-25hrs and 10+sbs.

I'd grab him before he stops flying under the radar.
C - Russell Martin
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - ...........
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
SS - Jimmy Rollins
CI - Paul Goldschmidt
MI - Alexei Ramirez
OF - Justin Upton
OF - Shin Choo
OF - Hunter Pence
OF - Desmond Jennings
OF - Will Venable
UTL - Leonys Martin
DL - Corey Hart

#4 2ndCitySox

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 10:05 AM

View Postplaceholder, on 29 April 2013 - 09:22 AM, said:

He looks great lately, I'm thinking he's good for 20-25hrs and 10+sbs.

I'd grab him before he stops flying under the radar.

He might have more value than UGHla
I've got more hits than Sadaharu Oh.

#5 k.k.

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:20 PM

View Postplaceholder, on 29 April 2013 - 09:22 AM, said:

He looks great lately, I'm thinking he's good for 20-25hrs and 10+sbs.

I'd grab him before he stops flying under the radar.

Since your post on Apr 29, Kelly Johnson continues to produce. This guy's ownership is bound to get ratcheted up this month if things continue on like this.

#6 btbindaclutch

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:49 AM

Picked him up and he's been on a tear lately.

Up to April 25th: 10-54 (.185), 7 runs, 3 hrs, 5 rbi

April 26th and on: 13-33 (.394), 4 runs, 1 hr, 11 rbi
14 Team H2H Custom Points
Team 1:
C - Carlos Santana, 1B - Matt Adams, 2B - Brandon Phillips, SS - Troy Tulowitzki, 3B - Xander Bogaerts, OF - Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, UTIL - Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz, Bench - Castellanos, Ackley, Arcia, Polanco
SP - Tony Cingrani, Zack Wheeler, Andrew Cashner, Matt Garza, Yordano Ventura, Tim Hudson
RP - Joakim Soria

Team 2:
C - Yan Gomes, 1B - Albert Pujols, 2B - Brian Dozier, SS - Hanley Ramirez, 3B - Aramis Ramirez, OF - Bryce Harper, Mark Trumbo, Khris Davis, UTIL - Matt Adams, Will Middlebrooks, Bench - Dunn, Ackley, Arcia, Baez, Springer, DL - Wilson Ramos
SP - Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb, Yordano Ventura, Scott Kazmir, Tyson Ross, Hector Santiago
RP - David Robertson

#7 accobra_kid

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 08:29 AM

He's been on a nice tear over the last ten days, raised his average from .185 to .264.  Long overdue for people like me who've been patient with him all season.

He's a sneaky mix of power and speed.  Not the best SB % (4 for 7), but the number of attempts shows that the Rays coaches are confident in giving him the green light.

It's frustrating to see him batting cleanup one game, 8th the next game, 2nd the game after that, and 9th the game after that.  Maddon being Maddon, I guess.  Would love it if he found a regular spot near the top of the order.

#8 btbindaclutch

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:31 PM

So far today 3-4 with a single, double, 2 run homer and 3 runs scored. Average is up to .283 now Benefiting from hitting in front of Zobrist and Longoria
14 Team H2H Custom Points
Team 1:
C - Carlos Santana, 1B - Matt Adams, 2B - Brandon Phillips, SS - Troy Tulowitzki, 3B - Xander Bogaerts, OF - Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, UTIL - Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz, Bench - Castellanos, Ackley, Arcia, Polanco
SP - Tony Cingrani, Zack Wheeler, Andrew Cashner, Matt Garza, Yordano Ventura, Tim Hudson
RP - Joakim Soria

Team 2:
C - Yan Gomes, 1B - Albert Pujols, 2B - Brian Dozier, SS - Hanley Ramirez, 3B - Aramis Ramirez, OF - Bryce Harper, Mark Trumbo, Khris Davis, UTIL - Matt Adams, Will Middlebrooks, Bench - Dunn, Ackley, Arcia, Baez, Springer, DL - Wilson Ramos
SP - Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb, Yordano Ventura, Scott Kazmir, Tyson Ross, Hector Santiago
RP - David Robertson

#9 Vernon

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:53 PM

riding him at 2nd right now and loving the results....
12 team h2h
C-mesoraco 1B- agonz, 2B-Altulve SS-Hardy 3B-K Johnson
OF- Cargo, Adam Jones, Allan Craig, Coco Crisp
Ut-Howard
DL-Machado
bench-Bourne, Dee Gordon
Sp-Felix, Scherzer, Peavy, Cingrani, Sabathia, Harrang, Eovaldi, Buerhle, T wood
RP- Romo, Soriano, Street, Rondon

#10 Whoopie!

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:19 PM

Really been under the radar this yr.  Hitting 9th was terrible for him but looks like he's been hitting out ot the 2 spot lately...any tampa homers want to chime in?

With 2b/OF eligibility , he should be on alot more fantasy teams.

Currently only 50% ownership in CBS

#11 Wombat

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:21 PM

He's among the top 5 streakiest players in the league. Ride it out and then prepare for 2-3 months where he struggles to touch .200

#12 Whoopie!

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:26 PM

Thats fair but he's also not that far removed from being a huge fantasy asset.  2010 - he was a top-5 option at 2b.

.283  26/71/93/13

Also was the last time he played a full season.  If he's getting shafted in the 9 hole most games, hard to trust.

But in the 2 hole, he's awfully intriguing.

#13 TribeFoo

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:33 PM

View PostWombat, on 10 May 2013 - 03:21 PM, said:

He's among the top 5 streakiest players in the league. Ride it out and then prepare for 2-3 months where he struggles to touch .200

This. Owned him before and he'll be locked in for a few weeks and then fall off a cliff. Enjoy the ride, though.

#14 rrich46

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:34 PM

I gave him a shot, what the hey....of course he's not in the lineup tonight! grrr
10 team Auction Keeper H2H 6x6 (TB+L added) $260 budget
Keep 5 for last yr's price+$3, ** indicates WW pick up
2014 keepers underlined. 2011 and 2013 Champ

................................................
INF Y Gomes $1** Goldschmidt $24 Prado $7 Lowrie $3 Alvarez $16

OF Harper $8 Rios $24 Marte $14 Trumbo $15
CI/MI C Davis $10 Dozier $3** UTIL Arenado $8 Pence $15


Bench G Springer $5 Baez $3
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SP Price $22 MadBum$9  Wacha $12 Teheran $15 S Gray $ 11 Cashner $6 E Santana $4, J Chavez $2**
RP Balfour $2 Frieri $3


DL - Minor $8 , Ramos $3
$84 FAAB left

#15 Whoopie!

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:38 PM

View Postrrich46, on 10 May 2013 - 03:34 PM, said:

I gave him a shot, what the hey....of course he's not in the lineup tonight! grrr


Yep, thats the big detterent.  Joe Maddon.

If you're not Longoria or Zobrist, odds are you wont be playing every day and if u do, you can bat anywhere 1-9.

#16 Sine_cera

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:08 PM

Another HR for Mr.Johnson. Make that 6 HR - 22 RBI - 4 SB on the season.

I read on Fangraphs that his contact% is back to where it was during his days with the D'Backs. That's very good news.
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#17 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:28 PM

View PostSine_cera, on 17 May 2013 - 07:08 PM, said:

Another HR for Mr.Johnson. Make that 6 HR - 22 RBI - 4 SB on the season.

I read on Fangraphs that his contact% is back to where it was during his days with the D'Backs. That's very good news.

Its also very wrong

Contact Rate by season:

2007 -- 78
2008 -- 79
2009 -- 82
2010 -- 75
2011 -- 70
2012 -- 69
2013 -- 69

Edited by Zumayaaaa, 17 May 2013 - 07:28 PM.


#18 Wombat

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:24 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 17 May 2013 - 07:28 PM, said:

View PostSine_cera, on 17 May 2013 - 07:08 PM, said:

Another HR for Mr.Johnson. Make that 6 HR - 22 RBI - 4 SB on the season.

I read on Fangraphs that his contact% is back to where it was during his days with the D'Backs. That's very good news.

Its also very wrong

Contact Rate by season:

2007 -- 78
2008 -- 79
2009 -- 82
2010 -- 75
2011 -- 70
2012 -- 69
2013 -- 69

Not sure what numbers your looking at but I know some sites have different definitions for contact% and swing and miss% etc. But his contact rate this year is 78% The last two years it has been 71%, and his big year in 2010 it was 77%.  His SwSt% is also down 4% from last year which is pretty massive.

Unfortunately his strikeout rate is still pretty absurdly high so the change in contact rates haven't made that much of a difference yet. That could be a bit fluky, or it could be due to him being someone who is constantly taking strike 3. I swear I see him sit there with the bat on his shoulders for strike 3 more than anyone in the league.

#19 Sine_cera

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:32 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 17 May 2013 - 07:28 PM, said:

View PostSine_cera, on 17 May 2013 - 07:08 PM, said:

Another HR for Mr.Johnson. Make that 6 HR - 22 RBI - 4 SB on the season.

I read on Fangraphs that his contact% is back to where it was during his days with the D'Backs. That's very good news.

Its also very wrong

Contact Rate by season:

2007 -- 78
2008 -- 79
2009 -- 82
2010 -- 75
2011 -- 70
2012 -- 69
2013 -- 69

I don't know what sites you're using but according to Fangraphs:

2010 - 76,9%
2011 - 71,8%
2012 - 71,4%
2013 - 78%

And his Z-Contact% is back to where it was back then too:

2010 - 86,9%
2011 - 79,8%
2012 - 82,5%
2013 - 85,3%
"There's nothing more interesting than your own rotisserie team and nothing less interesting than someone else's." - Daniel Okrent

"If you challenge the conventional wisdom, you will find ways to do things much better than they are currently done." - Bill James




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#20 Gumbo_Ghost

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:40 PM

Love the numbers and his 2B/OF

On pace for like 24/100 right now, and his average is almost .280




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