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Vernon Davis 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 01:46 PM

Walker's departure quietly could really help VD for 2013.  Walker seemly stole many of his looks and potential receptions over the last few seasons.  One can argue that the addition of Boldin negates the loss of Walker but I still think the loss of Walker at TE leads to a better and more consistent fantasy season from VD.  I think he belongs in the tier with Hernandez, Gonzo & Witten.

#2 DocJ

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 03:06 PM

I think we'll see a decent uptick in his stats this year, probably not 2009 levels but Kaep locking in on Crabtree the whole game simply isn't going to work next season, he'll have to get it to his most dynamic playmaker. I could see something more like 2010 with a slightly lower ypc, 60/800/8-9
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#3 cbe_88

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 03:16 PM

VD is a sneaky pickup that could last till the 6th round or even later because of how uninvolved he was last year. I think he gets more involved into Kaep's passing game next year, and he's arguably the most talented TE in the NFL. He was on my list of targets, but I take Gonzo over him now that he's coming back. Still wouldn't mind him though.

#4 sfdevil

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 03:26 PM

walker's departure means VD is the best blocking TE the 49ers have now, as well. So, I wouldnt bank on Walker's leaving the 49ers as a sign of VD going nuts next year

#5 Ribobizert

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 04:38 PM

Last season many teams considered VD the niners biggest receiving threat and devised game plans to neutralize him.  The addition of Boldin combined with Crabgrab's emergence is great for VD's value.  teams cant just home in on him and will be forced to account for Boldin and Crabgrab.

Even if he is asked to to a ton of blocking this season when he does run routes he will find more space and with his freak athleticism will capitalize on it.  I haven't really taken a careful look over the TE's for my ranks, after adding Boldin he is easily #5, behind Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, & Tony G.  


View Postcbe_88, on 14 March 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

VD is a sneaky pickup that could last till the 6th round or even later because of how uninvolved he was last year. I think he gets more involved into Kaep's passing game next year, and he's arguably the most talented TE in the NFL. He was on my list of targets, but I take Gonzo over him now that he's coming back. Still wouldn't mind him though.

he will definitely be a sneaky pick as many owners will remember how he has been kind of disappointing the past few seasons and will think Boldin will cut into his stats.

#6 DocJ

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 06:01 PM

View Postsfdevil, on 14 March 2013 - 03:26 PM, said:

walker's departure means VD is the best blocking TE the 49ers have now, as well. So, I wouldnt bank on Walker's leaving the 49ers as a sign of VD going nuts next year

This is a good point, Walker did a fair amount of blocking last season.
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#7 cbe_88

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 03:51 PM

I was fine with targeting VD this year, but Gonzo's return makes it interesting. My hunch is these two might go off the board around the same time, maybe Gonzo a little earlier. VD was a valuable candidate for TE1 spot, but having owned Gonzo last year, I probably target him first.

#8 ludawg23

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 04:03 PM

View Postcbe_88, on 15 March 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

I was fine with targeting VD this year, but Gonzo's return makes it interesting. My hunch is these two might go off the board around the same time, maybe Gonzo a little earlier. VD was a valuable candidate for TE1 spot, but having owned Gonzo last year, I probably target him first.

So if Gonzo is scooped up before your pick in the 4th round (as you mentioned the overvalued thread), you'd draft Davis in the 4th round?

Edited by ludawg23, 15 March 2013 - 04:04 PM.

12 team 5x5 H2H League

C - Lucroy
1st - Pujols
2nd - Kipnis
SS - Castro
3rd - Panda
OF - Trout, Choo, Bautisa
UTIL - V-Mart, Aramis, Ludwick
BENCH - Lind, Ethier, Burjous

SP - Anibal, Shields, Iwakumi, Cashner, Samardzija, E. Santana, Masterson, Hudson
RP - Soria, Axford, Hunter, Santos, Fields

#9 cbe_88

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 04:16 PM

View Postludawg23, on 15 March 2013 - 04:03 PM, said:

So if Gonzo is scooped up before your pick in the 4th round (as you mentioned the overvalued thread), you'd draft Davis in the 4th round?

Well I'd target VD a round or two later if I missed out on Gonzo. Like I said though, I think VD and Gonzo could have a much more similar ADP's come August. Gonzo slipping a little cuz of age, and VD rising a tad because of insane upside and elite talent. I wouldn't mind either.

Edited by cbe_88, 15 March 2013 - 04:17 PM.


#10 Ribobizert

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 05:55 PM

View Postcbe_88, on 15 March 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

I was fine with targeting VD this year, but Gonzo's return makes it interesting. My hunch is these two might go off the board around the same time, maybe Gonzo a little earlier. VD was a valuable candidate for TE1 spot, but having owned Gonzo last year, I probably target him first.

I disagree on VD being a TE1 last season, in std non ppr scoring he finished 15th.  There was a 17 pt difference between VD and Meyers #10 and Gates #12 difference was 10 pts.  I know in a ten team league that's a minscule 1pt/pg difference, but VD also only outscored Jared Cook #20 by 11pts.  Statistically speaking unless you think there is going to be a significant uptick in his performance, drafting VD in the 5th-6th round seems a bit too high.

I do realize i agreed with you earlier on VD having a better season, has proven he is capable of better, and has elite talent but I just think that he's a roll of the dice. Given the scarcity at RB I'll probably be drafting a few RB lottery tickets before I consider drafting him if he falls further than the 7th-8th round, especially with TE's trending towards being more of a stat bearing position these days.

Edited by Ribobizert, 15 March 2013 - 05:58 PM.


#11 cbe_88

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 08:29 PM

View PostRibobizert, on 15 March 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

I disagree on VD being a TE1 last season, in std non ppr scoring he finished 15th.  There was a 17 pt difference between VD and Meyers #10 and Gates #12 difference was 10 pts.  I know in a ten team league that's a minscule 1pt/pg difference, but VD also only outscored Jared Cook #20 by 11pts.  Statistically speaking unless you think there is going to be a significant uptick in his performance, drafting VD in the 5th-6th round seems a bit too high.

I do realize i agreed with you earlier on VD having a better season, has proven he is capable of better, and has elite talent but I just think that he's a roll of the dice. Given the scarcity at RB I'll probably be drafting a few RB lottery tickets before I consider drafting him if he falls further than the 7th-8th round, especially with TE's trending towards being more of a stat bearing position these days.

I meant VD is a valuable candidate for a TE1 NEXT year. He didn't do crap last year, but I think SF coaching staff makes sure Kaep involves their elite talent TE into the offensive plans. I'm targeting him as a later round TE1 in this years draft. Kaep having such an accurate arm give VD so much upside for next year. But yes, VD was not dependable last year, that's never what I was intending to say.

#12 Ryan81

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 12:17 AM

I'm really liking this guy. Superior athlete with a more high powered offense. I think he'll end up a top 5 TE and I would love to snag him in the 5th or maybe even 6th round. Many will remember how up and down he was last year so that could hurt his ADP.


If not, I'll be eyeing Jason Witten.
"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

#13 Ribobizert

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 02:16 AM

View Postcbe_88, on 15 March 2013 - 08:29 PM, said:

View PostRibobizert, on 15 March 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

I disagree on VD being a TE1 last season, in std non ppr scoring he finished 15th.  There was a 17 pt difference between VD and Meyers #10 and Gates #12 difference was 10 pts.  I know in a ten team league that's a minscule 1pt/pg difference, but VD also only outscored Jared Cook #20 by 11pts.  Statistically speaking unless you think there is going to be a significant uptick in his performance, drafting VD in the 5th-6th round seems a bit too high.

I do realize i agreed with you earlier on VD having a better season, has proven he is capable of better, and has elite talent but I just think that he's a roll of the dice. Given the scarcity at RB I'll probably be drafting a few RB lottery tickets before I consider drafting him if he falls further than the 7th-8th round, especially with TE's trending towards being more of a stat bearing position these days.

I meant VD is a valuable candidate for a TE1 NEXT year. He didn't do crap last year, but I think SF coaching staff makes sure Kaep involves their elite talent TE into the offensive plans. I'm targeting him as a later round TE1 in this years draft. Kaep having such an accurate arm give VD so much upside for next year. But yes, VD was not dependable last year, that's never what I was intending to say.
point taken i thought you were talking last season.  after looking at the TE's I think VD wil probably be around #5 or #6 on my board,. despite last seasons stats I feel much better drafting VD than the likes of greg olsen, pitta, daniels, etc.  i think i was focusing a bit too much on the #s last yr and not putting enough emphasis on talent & past performance.

#14 Winky

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 03:00 AM

Not sure Walker's leaving will have any real impact on VD.
Despite the obvious upside, not sure how he can be trusted to be your TE1...
There is no evidence of consistency for a few seasons now and this was not a result of the presence of Delanie Walker.
This post is rated "G".

#15 DocJ

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:03 AM

View PostWinky, on 16 March 2013 - 03:00 AM, said:

Not sure Walker's leaving will have any real impact on VD.
Despite the obvious upside, not sure how he can be trusted to be your TE1...
There is no evidence of consistency for a few seasons now and this was not a result of the presence of Delanie Walker.

I think the idea is that VD will be asked to block more with Walker gone. The thing is that O-line is good enough where they really shouldn't need him to help with pass protection much, not to mention how mobile Kaep is....I have high hopes that VD will be running quite a few routes vs. blocking.
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#16 cbe_88

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 01:47 PM

View PostWinky, on 16 March 2013 - 03:00 AM, said:

Not sure Walker's leaving will have any real impact on VD.
Despite the obvious upside, not sure how he can be trusted to be your TE1...
There is no evidence of consistency for a few seasons now and this was not a result of the presence of Delanie Walker.

Well the valid reasons to strongly consider VD as your TE1 to grab as late as the middle rounds is because as recent as his 2009 and 2010 campaigns he was #1 fantasy TE and #3 most productive. The dude has done it, he's been the best in the league. There was consistency of being a stud TE for two years, and that was with mediocre Alex Smith. There's reason to think he could regain his consistency especially having Kaep's arm now. He just needs to get on Kaep's radar which I think is very possible.

#17 sfdevil

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 01:39 AM

View PostDocJ, on 16 March 2013 - 11:03 AM, said:

View PostWinky, on 16 March 2013 - 03:00 AM, said:

Not sure Walker's leaving will have any real impact on VD.
Despite the obvious upside, not sure how he can be trusted to be your TE1...
There is no evidence of consistency for a few seasons now and this was not a result of the presence of Delanie Walker.

I think the idea is that VD will be asked to block more with Walker gone. The thing is that O-line is good enough where they really shouldn't need him to help with pass protection much, not to mention how mobile Kaep is....I have high hopes that VD will be running quite a few routes vs. blocking.
blocking isnt just pass protecting...and while the oline is good, its still merely above average in pass blocking as opposed to downright the best in run blocking. anthony davis got mandhandled badly last year by chris long, cam wake and then kruger.

with VD being a pretty good blocker, he'll block a good amount. and unless the Niners pick up another good blocking TE, those two tight end sets might see Celek the one catching the ball...it sounds preposterous, of course, but that'd be my take on things.

I would be extremely cautious with VD. his inconsistency will widely depend on what coverages will do to crabtree and boldin.

#18 Ryan81

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 10:47 AM

I highly doubt they let one of the most talented TEs stay in to block while letting the backup, Celek, run routes. It wouldn't make much sense.

Plus Kaepernick is a mobile QB.
"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

#19 bs61014

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:13 AM

I expected Davis' stock to rise when Kaepernick took over, but that didn't really happen.

I think Davis will provide some value when one is drafting for the TE position.  However I wouldn't reach for him, unless something else changes, other than Walker leaving.

#20 sfdevil

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 01:43 PM

View PostRyan81, on 17 March 2013 - 10:47 AM, said:

I highly doubt they let one of the most talented TEs stay in to block while letting the backup, Celek, run routes. It wouldn't make much sense.

Plus Kaepernick is a mobile QB.
its prolly far-fetched in pass blocking like I've said, but Niners still should be a run-first team...VD has run blocked more than half of his offensive snaps...and walker did lots of run-blocking as well.




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