204 replies to this topic

[jay_00]

Its still super early, but man i can't help but notice that next years fantasy season just might be the deepest in talent (when it comes to the 1st and 2nd rounds) that we have seen in years. It seems like there's talent all over the 1st round. Here's how i see it playing out barring any injuries of course:

1. Kevin Durant
2. LeBron James
3. Chris Paul
4. James Harden
5. Stephen Curry
6. Kyrie Irving
7. Dwayne Wade
8. Derrick Rose
9. Carmelo Anthony
10. Kobe Bryant
11. Kevin Love
12. Russell Westbrook

That's just the 1st round!! After the 4th pick, any of those guys can be pretty much switched for each other. That's just crazy to me. Of course some of these guys are nursing injuries at the moment, so hopefully everything will be ok by early next season.

That leaves plenty of talented bigs available in the 2nd round (Horford/Lopez/Sanders/Ibaka/Jefferson/Aldridge/Gasol). There's even some talented up and comers like Lillard, Paul George, Ty Lawson, and Batum. That still leaves vets like Nowitzki and Duncan hanging around. Plus, next year will probably be the first year in a longgggg time that Deron and Josh Smith dont get selected in the first 2 rounds. That's what you call deep.

[monkeyzonSteroids]

I think aside from KD/Lebron/CP3/Harden, you can make a case for who will go next. I would probably move Westbrook up more since he is so durable.

[mmahandicapper]

Irving should be drafted no less then 15th imo. Injury prone, lack of stls, low assists compared to top pg

[VeganZombies]

Any ranking that has Rose in the top 12 and wade at 7 is completely wrong. Drafting Westbrook at 5 is just insane, particularly when he's 2nd round talent that has been injury free lately. There are a bunch of "ultra durable" guys that randomly get injured after missing an amazingly small amount of games their first few seasons.

[darkyume]

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 12:56 AM, said:

Any ranking that has Rose in the top 12 and wade at 7 is completely wrong. Drafting Westbrook at 5 is just insane, particularly when he's 2nd round talent that has been injury free lately. There are a bunch of "ultra durable" guys that randomly get injured after missing an amazingly small amount of games their first few seasons.

Westbrook has never missed an NBA game in his 5 year career.

[BillWalton]

If we're talking 9 cat then Rose has no business in the first. Hasn't put up first round value yet and it'll be his first full year off an ACL.
I suspect after the first four its going to be some combination of Curry/Love/Irving/Westbrook. The top 3 guys have the big upside that you need if you're not picking top 4 (or really top 2), while Westbrook is an option for the risk adverse. I would never pick Westbrook there due to the lower ceiling but some people swear by the early round conservative strategy.

Irving has to be top 15. Yes, he's a band aid, but he's 8th on the year in 9 cat and two guys ahead of him likely won't be next year (Kobe and Duncan).

Without thinking about it too much I would rank it:

1) KD
2) LeBron
3) Paul/Harden
4) Harden/Paul - Would likely come down to playoff schedule and if I thought I could get a PG later
5) Steph - Biggest upside and he's been healthy this year
6) Love - A bit of a scary pick but none of his injuries have been of the chronic variety
7) Irving
8) Carmelo - He's fallen off but it seems like its been due to injuries. Has been a 1st round guy in NY.
9) Gasol - I love this guy. Very durable is and he's right at the start of his prime. Z-Bo's decline should help the rebounding numbers. I like his upside more than Westbrook.
10) Westbrook - Likely not going to put up first round value on per game basis but he'll be there on a cumulative basis.
11) Wade - He's been pretty healthy this year and he's auto first round value when healthy. The pending decline is scary though.
12) Horford - Likely no Smoove next year and I think his FT% is an anomoly.

The 12th spot is a toss up for me and will probably come down to team build. LMA/Ibaka/Horford/Kobe/Jeff (depending where he is) are the top contenders for me. I don't mind Paul George either. I wouldn't touch Batum because his minutes are definitely going to come down (its not like that bench could get any worse). Anthony Davis isn't going to go late first or early second but I bet he's a 2nd round pick by the time the drafts come along and I'll have no problem taking him anywhere from the middle of the 2nd on.

I'm glad to see Deron FINALLY getting the boot from the first round conversation. Its a couple years too late but I'm glad we finally got here.

[w00funk]

Here's my first round as of now (Standard H2H 9 cat):

1.  Durant
2.  Lebron
3.  CP3
4.  Harden
5.  Curry
6.  Kevin Love
7.  Paul George
8.  Wade
9.  Horford
10. Batum
11. Westbrook
12. Ibaka

On the bubble:  Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony

I'm sure there is going to changes depending on how the season/playoffs play out.  It looks to me though that unlike this season, there are a lot of interesting high-upside picks towards the end of 1st round next year.  This year, after Love and maybe Westbrook, there was a lot of uncertainty and gamble (health or otherwise), but next season we have KLove probably coming back healthy, Paul George and Batum, who have proved that they can be utility players on steroids for a whole season, and other young guys like Westbrook, Irving, and Ibaka who have posted 1st round value for entire seasons, yet still have room for growth.  I hated to be the mid or late pick this past season, but the wheel looks to be a very good position next year.

1st round old timers like Duncan, Kobe, and Dirk are always on the bubble, but I don't think many can pull the trigger with them even if they go on a tear from now until the end of the season.  I can also see Anthony Davis and Larry Sanders going in 2nd round next year.  And who knows what kind of trades will happen in the offseason and where the hype train will take us.

[darkyume]

w00funk, on 15 March 2013 - 01:21 AM, said:

Here's my first round as of now (Standard H2H 9 cat):

1.  Durant
2.  Lebron
3.  CP3
4.  Harden
5.  Curry
6.  Kevin Love
7.  Paul George
8.  Wade
9.  Horford
10. Batum
11. Westbrook
12. Ibaka

On the bubble:  Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony

I'm sure there is going to changes depending on how the season/playoffs play out.  It looks to me though that unlike this season, there are a lot of interesting high-upside picks towards the end of 1st round next year.  This year, after Love and maybe Westbrook, there was a lot of uncertainty and gamble (health or otherwise), but next season we have KLove probably coming back healthy, Paul George and Batum, who have proved that they can be utility players on steroids for a whole season, and other young guys like Westbrook, Irving, and Ibaka who have posted 1st round value for entire seasons, yet still have room for growth.  I hated to be the mid or late pick this past season, but the wheel looks to be a very good position next year.

1st round old timers like Duncan, Kobe, and Dirk are always on the bubble, but I don't think many can pull the trigger with them even if they go on a tear from now until the end of the season.  I can also see Anthony Davis and Larry Sanders going in 2nd round next year.  And who knows what kind of trades will happen in the offseason and where the hype train will take us.

Probably my favorite list so far, especially with the inclusion of Batum/George and exclusion of Melo.  

If Anthony Davis bulks up and stays relatively injury free (which is a rather big if), I think he'll easily return 1st round value so I agree with your round 2 assessment.

[taenggg]

1.kd
2. lebron
3. harden
4.cp3 - him and curry are interchangable. i'd probably draft curry at 4 if given the opportunity though
5. curry
6. george - might be a reach but i see him improving his game a ton over the off season. should be avging 20+ pts next season so that will boost his value
7. love
8. irving
9. batum - 15/5/5  with good percentages and less TO's is definitely possible
10. wade
11. westbrook
12. ibaka - 1 trey a game next season should bring up  his value LOL

[VeganZombies]

darkyume, on 15 March 2013 - 01:10 AM, said:

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 12:56 AM, said:

Any ranking that has Rose in the top 12 and wade at 7 is completely wrong. Drafting Westbrook at 5 is just insane, particularly when he's 2nd round talent that has been injury free lately. There are a bunch of "ultra durable" guys that randomly get injured after missing an amazingly small amount of games their first few seasons.

Westbrook has never missed an NBA game in his 5 year career.

Also has no upside is a mid 2nd round value and not missing a game for his whole career doesn't mean he can't get injured. There are a bunch of players that played 78+ games a season for 3+ season, then tear their ACL or break something. You know, say Rose (3 seasons), Rondo (4 seasons), Howard (7 seasons), Shaq (3 seasons), Danny granger (3 seasons), Malone (18 seasons), Billups (3 seasons 2x), Tim Duncan (3 seasons 2x)... just off the top of my head.

I suppose you can make the case that Westbrook never missed a game and thus is in another league compared to those guys, but really, given westbrook's game and the way he attacks the rim, and the way amount of minute he plays he's fortunate that he hasn't ever missed a game. Almost 1/3 of his shots are in the paint... The other guards that are insanely durable are shooters: reggie miller, stockton, fisher. I suppose Westbrook is freaky durable, but I'm going to assume that he's getting relatively lucky.

[darkyume]

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 02:36 AM, said:

darkyume, on 15 March 2013 - 01:10 AM, said:

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 12:56 AM, said:

Any ranking that has Rose in the top 12 and wade at 7 is completely wrong. Drafting Westbrook at 5 is just insane, particularly when he's 2nd round talent that has been injury free lately. There are a bunch of "ultra durable" guys that randomly get injured after missing an amazingly small amount of games their first few seasons.

Westbrook has never missed an NBA game in his 5 year career.

Also has no upside is a mid 2nd round value and not missing a game for his whole career doesn't mean he can't get injured. There are a bunch of players that played 78+ games a season for 3+ season, then tear their ACL or break something. You know, say Rose (3 seasons), Rondo (4 seasons), Howard (7 seasons), Shaq (3 seasons), Danny granger (3 seasons), Malone (18 seasons), Billups (3 seasons 2x), Tim Duncan (3 seasons 2x)... just off the top of my head.

I suppose you can make the case that Westbrook never missed a game and thus is in another league compared to those guys, but really, given westbrook's game and the way he attacks the rim, and the way amount of minute he plays he's fortunate that he hasn't ever missed a game. Almost 1/3 of his shots are in the paint... The other guards that are insanely durable are shooters: reggie miller, stockton, fisher. I suppose Westbrook is freaky durable, but I'm going to assume that he's getting relatively lucky.

I'm merely clarifying your statement, as it sort of implies that he's missed games before.  Not trying to argue that he should go 1st round, if that's your assumption.  

Personally, I am a Westbrook hater (in fantasy and real life) so I'd actually put him in early-to-mid 2nd round, but I wouldn't mind at all if people put him in the 1st round, citing his durability.  If you think his style of play puts him at an injury risk, I think it's perfectly reasonable argument, and if others put more weight into history, I think it's perfectly reasonable as well.  

If you would like to go into detail in evaluating players, you can assign your own "expected value" (or "expected # games played") to calculate their cumulative value (which BBM does in their projections, I think) and put that into account as well, but personally it's too much work.  I honestly don't care enough, because even with the best reasoning, pretty much every list is not going to end up 100% correct.  I'll look at numbers, history, situation/role, listen to other opinions, etc. and go with my gut feeling, which is probably what most people do anyway.  Since I know you love BBM and objectivity, you can go ahead and be technical (e.g. assign Westbrook 1% chance of tearing ACL at any moment of the season, so take away (0.01) * 82 / 2 = .41 games played), but I'm not going down that road.  Injury risk and H2H/Roto, league size, # games played, # moves, etc would be a messy issue as well...

Edited by darkyume, 15 March 2013 - 04:01 AM.

[Straight Outta CPT]

darkyume, on 15 March 2013 - 01:10 AM, said:

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 12:56 AM, said:

Any ranking that has Rose in the top 12 and wade at 7 is completely wrong. Drafting Westbrook at 5 is just insane, particularly when he's 2nd round talent that has been injury free lately. There are a bunch of "ultra durable" guys that randomly get injured after missing an amazingly small amount of games their first few seasons.

Westbrook has never missed an NBA game in his 5 year career.

I think Westbrook has played every single regular season and postseason game in high school, college, and the NBA.  His fantasy game is overrated, but his durability is not.

That being said, I have no problem taking a healthy second-round talent in the first round if I don't get one of the good picks in a draft league.  Aside from Durant, LeBron, and Paul, there are no sure things in fantasy basketball (i.e. guys who have a consistent track record over multiple seasons of putting up early first round value), and getting a "sure second-rounder" in the first round doesn't prevent you from winning your league.

Edited by Straight Outta CPT, 15 March 2013 - 04:13 AM.

[VeganZombies]

Westbrook is a freak athlete. But if you're 6'3" and your style of play revolves around scoring in the paint and taking hits from 7 footers for 82 games a year. I don't care how healthy you are, you're an injury risk.

If you expect Westbrook to play 82 games every year for the rest of his career and not ever go down to an injury that costs him 1/2 the season or more, then more power to you, but instead of gambling on an injury prone player that's guaranteed to be 1st round when healthy, you're gambling on an injury free player that's a mid second round upside to stay injury free.

Rose was one of the most durable players until he tore his acl and missed 1.5 years.

Having an injury free second round player drafted in the first round doesn't win championships. Having a top 5 player injury prone play drafted late in 1st round wins championships provided they stay healthy.

Edited by VeganZombies, 15 March 2013 - 04:18 AM.

[darkyume]

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 04:17 AM, said:

Westbrook is a freak athlete. But if you're 6'3" and your style of play revolves around scoring in the paint and taking hits from 7 footers for 82 games a year. I don't care how healthy you are, you're an injury risk.

If you expect Westbrook to play 82 games every year for the rest of his career and not ever go down to an injury that costs him 1/2 the season or more, then more power to you, but instead of gambling on an injury prone player that's guaranteed to be 1st round when healthy, you're gambling on an injury free player that's a mid second round upside to stay injury free.

Rose was one of the most durable players until he tore his acl and missed 1.5 years.

Having an injury free second round player drafted in the first round doesn't win championships. Having a top 5 player injury prone play drafted late in 1st round wins championships provided they stay healthy.

I knew this would be the way you'd respond... hence my suggestion of assigning "Expected games played" to players.  You seem to know your stats, so surely you would know what expected value is, right?  I think it would match your style of BBM and objectivity in building a ranking for 1st round.  

With regards to the bolded part, all you have to do is multiply Expected games played * Per game projection = Projected cumulative value, to see if your claim is true.

Feel free to tell us how many games you "expect" Westbrook and others to play, but don't expect me (or anyone else) to argue or agree with you, as this is largely based on opinion (i.e. amount of weight in playing style/history/etc).

Edited by darkyume, 15 March 2013 - 04:40 AM.

[darkyume]

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 04:17 AM, said:

Having an injury free second round player drafted in the first round doesn't win championships. Having a top 5 player injury prone play drafted late in 1st round wins championships provided they stay healthy.

Ah yes, I forgot to comment on one more thing regarding this quote.  You should ask Bynum owners this year, how much he's helped in the road to winning a championship

[Hot N Sour Soup]

1. Lebron
2. Kd
3. Harden
4. Paul
5. Love
6. Curry
7. Irving
8. Westbrook
9. George
10. Ibaka
11. Wade
12. Horford

Sleeper 1st Picks - Rondo/DWill/Rose/Bynum

[EatPrayLove]

Interesting debate, personally I'd take Westbrook as I value durability above a little extra production. What alot of people don't put enough weight on is just how damaging missed games are for fantasy purposes. If Westbrook gets his FG% back up to 45%+ I can see him returning mid to late first round value even with his TO deficiencies...

After the first 4 guys...I wouldn't really say anyone is a lock for 1st round value tbh...

I'd say the next group would be Curry, Irving, Love, Kobe, RWB, George, Batum, M Gasol although not in that particular order....

Guys like Jeff, Wade and DWill I reckon are on the downward curve of their careers where their production has past its peak point and probably slowly drop from next season onwards...I'd put Kobe in this group but the dude is super human to be doing what he's doing at his age.

Edited by EatPrayLove, 15 March 2013 - 07:12 AM.

[jay_00]

VeganZombies, on 15 March 2013 - 04:17 AM, said:

Westbrook is a freak athlete. But if you're 6'3" and your style of play revolves around scoring in the paint and taking hits from 7 footers for 82 games a year. I don't care how healthy you are, you're an injury risk.

If you expect Westbrook to play 82 games every year for the rest of his career and not ever go down to an injury that costs him 1/2 the season or more, then more power to you, but instead of gambling on an injury prone player that's guaranteed to be 1st round when healthy, you're gambling on an injury free player that's a mid second round upside to stay injury free.

Rose was one of the most durable players until he tore his acl and missed 1.5 years.

Having an injury free second round player drafted in the first round doesn't win championships. Having a top 5 player injury prone play drafted late in 1st round wins championships provided they stay healthy.

I don't understand why you keep calling someone who has never missed a game in high school, college, or NBA (basically his entire life) injury prone. Just because he is a physical player doesn't mean he will sustain a serious injury that will keep him out an entire year. I understand you brought up several players who were considered durable and got injured, but none of the guys you mentioned had Westbrook's attendance record. Not only in the NBA, but even dating back to high school. The players you mentioned missed games, even if it was only a couple.

I see you brought up Rose and tearing his ACL. Alotta players tear their ACL's without any physical contact whatsoever. They're usually freak injuries. You can't expect him to tear his ACL just because he looks for contact.

Westbrook is returning mid 2nd round value in 9 cat this season, and he put up the same value last season. He's clearly shown the ability to improve in certain categories, and he's still very young with incredible durability. To say a guy who is young, has shown the ability to improve, who's shown that he's certainly durable, and has put up close to 1st round value last 2 seasons doesn't deserve a first round selection, well I just don't get it.

If you don't like him based solely because he attacks the rim alot and is "injury prone", well doesn't that mean Love, Rose, Curry, Kyrie, or Wade don't deserve first round selections either? I don't understand the logic behind that.

Edited by jay_00, 15 March 2013 - 08:41 AM.

[MJG44]

1. Kevin Durant
2. LeBron James
3. James Harden
4. Stephen Curry
5. Kyrie Irving
6. Derrick Rose
7. Chris Paul
8. Russell Westbrook
9. Kevin Love
10. Carmelo Anthony
11. Dwayne Wade
12. Kobe Bryant

[jay_00]

Personally i'm not sold on Paul George just yet. I'd like to see how he does for a full season next to a healthy Danny Granger before I put him in 1st round. Looking at Rose's career numbers, I'm bumping him outta the 1st round for now, but If I were at the end of the first round I would certainly draft him with the first pick of the 2nd round. I'd probably bump Horford into the 1st round.