15 replies to this topic

[Vupacalypse]

I figured with SJAX gone, Pead is going to step up as option A for the STL running attack. I'm hoping this doesn't become a RBBC because I think Pead shows better running chops than his mate Richardson.

[HashtagHeel]

Pead is probably going to get first crack at the job since the Rams have a 2nd Rounder invested in him, plus Fisher is very high on him.

[Rob_P]

Per Fisher he has 3 down potential....that's enough for me to pay attention to this situation.  If my memory serves correct, Pead was very highly thought of coming out of college so he could surprise.   Preseason should hopefully give a clue on how they will be used.....all that said, wouldn't shock me if Rams draft or sign an RB which could reduce or eliminate any possible value in an instant.

[SilentSentinel]

Jake Long signs with the Rams, making that O-line less... horrible. Definitely ups the value of whoever ends up being the guy in this backfield.

[J.T. Marlin]

Great guy to target in the middle rounds.  There's usually a 2nd year RB or two, who was a dud his rookie year, that breaks out in year 2.  Pead and LMiller are looking like the top candidates for 2013.

[Ribobizert]

Vupacalypse, on 15 March 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

I figured with SJAX gone, Pead is going to step up as option A for the STL running attack. I'm hoping this doesn't become a RBBC because I think Pead shows better running chops than his mate Richardson.

So many people seem to be hopping on the Pead train lately, but based on what? Pead didn't even have an opportunity to show he ran better than D-Rich with a grand total of 10 carries last yr.  That is not a big enough sample size to go out and say Pead ran better than someone who averaged 4.8 ypc last season, especially when Pead's 5.4 ypc isn't a ton better.  I think that it's hard to project how good Richardson will be based on his limited carries and he had 10 times as many (98). They are both smallish RBs, it's doubtful either ends up a bell cow back no matter which proves to be better.  

Not trying to say that Pead can't be the #1 back but D-Rich was also a rookie last season and saw the field a lot more.  It's possible Pead steps it up this year and obviously Fisher seems to have some confidence in him.  I really don't trust what coaches say as much as what I see happens on the field (i.e. Norv Turner said Mathews was the 3rd down back last yr and he was never on the field for 3rd down).  Based on Pead's limited snaps, this preseason will play a large part in determining his fantasy value.

I would temper expectations for any guy likely to be in a RBBC, especially in the rams poor offense.  they did sign Long but lost their 2 top WRs: Amendola & Gibson, so if you thought their passing/offense struggled last yr it's likely not getting much better this yr- unless you believe Pead or D-Rich to be way way better than SJAX.

[rraayy3]

the only reason this is even a "competition" is because they used a high pick on Pead.

richardson played well enough to earn at least 10 touches a game regardless.

[fredth3cat]

We're going to hear a lot of "Pead will take over the job by midseason".

Will it actually happen? Hard to say.

[Blu Exile]

I loved Pead in college & was higher than anybody on him last year, until I watched him in preseason. He honestly didn't do 1 thing all year & looked very poor.

If All things are equal between Pead & Richardson, I'm taking Richardson. Unless Richardson is going rounds & rounds ahead of Pead, then I would draft Pead. I'd hope the light switch went on for him in year 2, because he does have a lot of talent.

[Ryan81]

As of now, it looks like Richardson could be the guy. If so, I'm thinking a 7th/8th rounder on him might be okay. But I wouldn't mind taking Pead as a very late round flier.

[Curtis_dog4life]

Die hard Rams fan here.  I watched every game last season, and I agree 100% with comments saying D-Rich played better than Pead last year.
D-Rich showed well on outside runs showing his burst and speed.  However, he got what was blocked and showed little elusiveness and don't remember him breaking a single tackle. But don't get me wrong... He hits the hole hard nearly every time, and has very good speed.  But to me he's almost a clone of his cousin, Bernard Scott former Cinn Bengal RB.  I question his durability as he slowed way down the last 6 or 7 games.
Pead didn't do diddly poo.  He only had 2 games where I seen him "flash" potential.  He had a few nice runs week 3 or 4 of the preseason against backups, and against the Patriots in Eurpoe during garbage time.  When he did flash, I know Ram fans got up out of their seats.  His lateral quickness is definately elite, and he has the ability to make defenses miss.  That's the only reason his buzz is building.
This will almost certainly be a RBBC with Pead, D-Rich, and Ganaway or a drafted RB (Eddie Lacy?).  My gut tells me Pead will blossom this year, and steal the show in 2013 though!!!  I wanted Lamar Miller or even Ronnie Hillman a lot more at the time when the pick was made.  But, I've just got too much belief in Les Snead and Jeff Fisher to think they'd miss on the Pead pick. Rams in '13!!!!

[Robrain]

I started the Terrance Ganaway thread last year, and even I'll admit that any Arian Foster comparisons are just ludicrous.

Instead of being long-winded, I'll just state the facts:

1) Pead did absolutely nothing noteworthy last season.  For the regular season, he had 10 carries, 54 rushing yards (long of 19, so his other 9 carries averaged 3.888_ YPC), and 3 receptions for 16 yards.
2) More importantly, he had one of the more atrocious years I can remember for a rookie RB.  With a total of 13 touches, he fumbled twice.  That means he fumbled over 15% of the time that he touched the ball.  Obviously small sample size and all, but an absolutely poor showing.  It's not very hard to see why his playing time was so limited.
3) That's also before you get to some of the really bad drops he had in the passing game.
4) I also remember him making some very poor reads on his runs during the initial part of the pre/season.

All in all, I'd rate it as an absolutely terrible year.

Let's move onto his running style.

He's fairly quick, but not Jahvid Best or David Wilson quick.  He's fairly fast, ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, but I think he really needs some time running in a straight line in the open field before his speed is very apparent.  David Wilson ran a 4.49 at the NFL Combine, but I think we all know that he's almost certainly faster than Pead on long runs.

Let's actually talk his measurables first.  We'll use the official NFL Combine numbers/times for easy referencing.

We already noted his 40-yard dash time of 4.47.  Let's compare that time to some of the other rookie RB's in his draft class (and I'm also going to throw in Jahvid Best's numbers for added perspective as well):

40-Yard Dash:
Isaiah Pead - 4.47
David Wilson - 4.49
Doug Martin - 4.55
Robert Turbin - 4.50
Terrance Ganaway - 4.67
Jahvid Best - 4.35

3-Cone Drill:
Isaiah Pead - 6.95
David Wilson - 7.09
Doug Martin - 6.79
Robert Turbin - 7.16
Terrance Ganaway - 7.15
Jahvid Best - 6.75

20-Yard Shuttle:
Isaiah Pead - 4.16
David Wilson - 4.12
Doug Martin - 4.16
Robert Turbin - 4.31
Terrance Ganaway - 4.25
Jahvid Best - 4.17

60-Yard Shuttle:
Isaiah Pead - ?
David Wilson - ?
Doug Martin - 11.29
Robert Turbin - ?
Terrance Ganawawy - 11.65
Jahvid Best - ?

Lastly, Height/Weight:
Isaiah Pead - 5'10" / 197lbs
David Wilson - 5'10" / 206lbs
Doug Martin - 5'9" / 223lbs
Robert Turbin - 5'10 / 222lbs
Terrance Ganaway - 6'0" / 239lbs
Jahvid Best - 5'10" / 199lbs

Therein lies my point.  At less than 200lbs (though I believe he did bulk up to at least 200lbs before the season), I don't see Isaiah Pead running over m/any defenders.  I really don't think adding an extra ~5 pounds of weight will even make any real difference in that characteristic either.  I think he's going to have to get into the 220 range, while somehow maintaining all of his speed, in order for him to have any real shot of bouncing off defenders the way Doug Martin / David Wilson do.

That leaves his only real skillset as not bouncing off defenders, not lightning fast speed, but lateral movement.  That seems to be his only defining characteristic, the way he makes quick sideways movements while running.  However, without the ability to also bowl over a defender if the move doesn't work (AP, anyone?), he ends up simply getting brought down too often that it limits his ultimate "big play" upside...especially if he doesn't have the long speed to outrun the secondary at the NFL level (on the rare occasions where he does manage to use his lateral moves to get past the initial line of defenders).  Nor the weight/size combination to break loose when those defensive backs / safeties do catch up and make the tackle.

Jahvid Best's had a ton of quickness, and yes, that was awesome in short area, but his real upside for fantasy was his homerun threat.  He could take a play to the house from anywhere on the field.  If he didn't have that trait, fantasy football managers would never have been as high on him as they were.  Without the ability to finish out the play, his upside is nowhere near as enticing as a RB that is the full package.

And that's basically Pead's problem.  His lateral movements are great, but it just doesn't seem like they're enough at the NFL level without a great size/weight combination, or size/speed combination.  At least, not enough to expect great stats from him.

Also, direct quote from his NFL.com Draft Profile:

"WEAKNESSES: Pead isn't a willing blocker and barely displays the strength to stall rushers when he does step in. He has limited experience catching passes out of the backfield, and there are questions as to his reliability and consistency will be throughout a full NFL season. He is a bit undersized and hasn't been hit enough times in college to get a feeling of what his durability will be at the next level."

Sources for the above numbers, mostly the official NFL Draft Profile for each player:

Isaiah Pead:
http://www.nfl.com/c...pead?id=2532926

David Wilson:
http://www.nfl.com/c...lson?id=2533035

Doug Martin:
http://www.nfl.com/c...rtin?id=2532899

Robert Turbin:
http://www.nfl.com/c...rbin?id=2533460

Terrance Ganaway:
http://www.nfl.com/d...away?id=2532984

Jahvid Best:
http://www.nfl.com/c...-best?id=497147



And if you needed a reminder of what Best's lateral speed is all about (which I don't think holds true for Pead):

[Robrain]

And to give everyone a look at his trademark lateral agility, this video does a pretty good job of highlighting it:

[Robrain]

Finally found a better highlight video for Pead:

[scienergy]

I like Pead.  I have confidence Pead can become at the pro level what he was in college, in the mold of Chris Johnson (Fisher agrees).  His combine results and measurables are similar to David Wilson (Thanks Robrain).   My biggest concern, he seems like a headcase.  I had suspicions before, but this article confirmed it: http://www.gobearcat...rom-misery.html

"I was literally fed up with football," Pead said. "Not a quitter, not quitting, I was just tired of football. Tired of practice for the day and I would just lay there play video games and whatnot because it was so miserable, so stressful."

However, this may be one of those life lessons that can't be taught.  Some people need to hit rock bottom before they can rise to the top.  This is what greatness is all about, fighting the internal demons and building confidence through action.  Perhaps he has turned a page from all of this:

He feels renewed and focused on improving his mental approach. Earlier to rise, earlier to bed, more time in the playbook, less time opting for fast food. All small aspects of being a pro which partially contributed to his disappointment.   "I am moving on from last year, last year is last year, but I have not forgot about last year. I wouldn't call it revenge, but the chip that I put on my shoulder is just a little bigger."

I picked up both Richardson and Pead last year in preparation for Jackson to leave town.  If the Rams draft an RB today (and I think they will) it will throw a monkey wrench in my plans.  Wait and see...

Edited by scienergy, 26 April 2013 - 10:29 AM.

[RotoRaysfan]

FWIW, Rams traded away their 2nd round pick, but have 2 3rd round picks.  Their absolute need is for safety, so we'll see where they go after addressing safety.

If they go today without addressing RB, then IMO I think it's reasonably safe to see STL as sticking with Pead vs. Richardson as the 2013 idea (they could always gamble on Lattimore later on, but that's really aimed at 2014 onwards....).