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Chris Johnson 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 ipstaff

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 09:57 PM

Looked and looked and was shocked not to see a CJ1.2K thread yet.

He rebounded really nicely after a three week horror show to start the season, ending with a 4.5 ypc average, but CJ will turn 28 this season, set a career low for receptions and receiving yards last season (ironically his single game high in both categories last season came in week 1, with 6 for 47), and he only managed 6 TDs all year.

Meanwhile, the Titans, in what appears to be a massive land-grab for every marginal FA talent available, have signed the plodding Shonn Greene - who, despite being a pretty non-dynamic back, was barely beaten out by CJ in total fantasy points last season - to serve as a change of pace back, and the marginal Ryan Fitzpatrick to back up the also-marginal Jake Locker at QB.

To top it all off, CJ's best games last season generally came with the now-released Matt Hasselbeck under center.

For all of this, CJ1.2K finished just outside the top 12 RBs in standard fantasy scoring, but there doesn't appear to be a lot of good news coming out of Tennessee for CJ's fantasy future.

#2 Ribobizert

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:48 PM

I was pretty high on CJ3K's being a bounce back player because of his speed, past history of fantasy excellence, and the Titans are changing up there run blocking scheme (which can't really hurt his fantasy value at this point).

I don't think shonn green is a great back but he can push the pile, making him effective in short yardage and goal line situations. The titans have already expressed they signed him to use him in this role. This caps CJ3K's TD value, as they haven't a true goal line RB since Lendale White. Granted CJ3K's TD #s aren't going to completely disappear as he has break away speed & might be the best at scoring TDs on long runs, but how dependable/predictable are any players long TD scores (think desean jackson)....

Bottom Line: CJ3K could be a yardage beast this upcoming season. But Greene's addition has just made him a less reliable Matt Forte.

Edited by Ribobizert, 18 March 2013 - 11:50 PM.


#3 Vestrogen

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:25 AM

I've actually spent a fair amount of time looking into why Chris Johnson declined so sharply after his amazing 2009. I do not think he will recover to what he was for one major reason: his 358 touches in 2009. RBs that run around 370 times in a single season usually experience declines in their production. Johnson is no exception. Of course there are players that have hit that number that perform fine after, but they are the exceptions. Remember Larry Johnson? In 2006 he got 416 touches, the most in NFL history. The rest of his career he was in decline. He was only 27 at the time, the same age as Chris Johnson. Now I do think Chris Johnson's last season was a step in the right direction, but Larry Johnson had a pretty good year in 2008 as well (like Chris Johnson it was 2 years removed from his big season). I just don't believe that Chris Johnson will ever be the same player that we saw in 2009. Another factor that has not come into play is injury. He has played an amazing 79 games in 6 seasons and had 1463 touches in that time. I think eventually he will spend some time in the IR, you cannot work a guy that much and expect he will stay healthy. He should still be in his prime, but I believe that the Titans have just burned him out.

Overall I think there are just too many factors working against Johnson. I don't think he will ever hit 300 touches again in his career and the addition of Shonn Green does not help him at all. Green is a power back who will take away Johnson's goal line carries. That means even less TDs. I think Johnson will be very overvalued in fantasy drafts. I project him to do 250/1050/3. I strongly caution everyone to not look into his past excellence. He's just not the same player as he was before and that's unfortunate.

Edited by Vestrogen, 19 March 2013 - 01:27 AM.


#4 rraayy3

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:30 AM

Nothing more than an RB2 - especially with Greene in town (funny they end up together...)

I'll pay attention if they draft a stud OL like Warmack to go with Levitre, but the "cj2k" days are long gone.

Adding Walker might help the run game a bit too.

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#5 DocJ

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 09:53 AM

If they add another upgrade to that OL I'd consider him in the 3rd at the earliest....which means I will probably not be a CJ owner this year unless I get him for a decent price in my auction league.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***

Record: 4-7

QB: Big Ben
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Calvin Johnson (1.06)
WR2: Julio Jones (2.09)
W/R/T: Roddy White
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Dan Carpenter

Bench: PHI DST, Keenan Allen (3.06), , Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), Kenny Stills, Andy Dalton, KaDeem Carey (14.09), Nick Foles (8.09)James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#6 Ribobizert

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 12:38 AM

I love auction leagues they make every player, outside of Beanie Wells, very draftable in the right circumstances.

#7 DocJ

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:18 PM

I've noticed you can get "injury prone" players for dirt cheap in many auction leagues vs. what they're ADP typically is in a snakedraft.
I imagine I'll be getting DMC and Matthews for pennies on the dollar compared to their potential upside this coming season. Make sure you're already in decent shape at RB then if they blow up you either trade them to shore up weaknesses in your lineup or ride them into the playoffs. Plus if they get hurt again you're not totally screwed like you are if you burned a 2-3rd round pick on one in a snakedraft.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***

Record: 4-7

QB: Big Ben
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Calvin Johnson (1.06)
WR2: Julio Jones (2.09)
W/R/T: Roddy White
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Dan Carpenter

Bench: PHI DST, Keenan Allen (3.06), , Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), Kenny Stills, Andy Dalton, KaDeem Carey (14.09), Nick Foles (8.09)James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#8 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:51 PM

This guy sounded pissed in his interview about Shonn Greene. Hopefully that makes this guy work harder and fight for his job, be something tells me he's gonna be a prima donna about all of this. We'll have to wait and see.
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#9 predator_05

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:05 PM

His reaction made him sound like a great team-mate.........not.

Can't deny CJ's talent though. A slightly better OL and he will do more than just the 1.2k he put up last year. Helps to have the starting QB playing back there too.
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#10 Proteus

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:08 PM

Definitely a bounceback from being a bounceback candidate candidate.
QB: Ryan Leaf
RB: Lawrence Phillips
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WR: Charles Rogers
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TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
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#11 Ribobizert

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:10 PM

His reaction made him sound like a great team-mate.........not.

Can't deny CJ's talent though. A slightly better OL and he will do more than just the 1.2k he put up last year. Helps to have the starting QB playing back there too.

Has he ever had a good QB in the backfield?

he definitely seems pretty self centered and diva-ish from his interviews. Hisinterview on the NFL network & tweets about the 40 times made him look like a jack a** that was more concerned about someone beating his irrelevant 40 time than himself/Titans getting better for next season. I imagine most of the games true winners, not caring at all about their 40 time and refocusing conversation on what to expect in real football for their upcoming season

Does anyone have a link to him going off on shonne green?

#12 rraayy3

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:25 PM

At the league's owners meetings this week, however, coach Mike Munchak said he expected Greene to get plenty of work.
"We feel he can play all three downs," Munchak said. "He may get a series where he gets going, we're taking over the line of scrimmage, we want that type of runner in there, and we'll leave him in there. He gives us some more options."
"At the end of the day, I think there's a chance it could turn into some controversy, but that is nothing to worry about right now. I am hoping for the best," Johnson told the newspaper.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9078603/chris-johnson-questions-tennessee-titans-signing-shonn-greene

NO THANKS.

Edited by rraayy3, 21 March 2013 - 10:26 PM.


#13 Ryan81

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:35 PM

I am staying FAR, FAR away.

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RB1: Arian Foster

RB2: Ahmad Bradshaw

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W/R/T: Jeremy Maclin

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#14 Lebowski87

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 06:00 AM

I don't really like the Greene signing, in general and for CJ's fantasy prospects. People think he's an effective short yardage back because of his size but he's actually awful in those situations and doesn't use his size. They will probably forcefeed him enough goal line touches to lower the value of CJ. I'd stay away from him unless I can get him in round 3 probably.
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#15 Dunder Mifflin Intern

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:03 AM

Looked and looked and was shocked not to see a CJ1.2K thread yet.


That's cause there's no need for a "CJ Season Outlook" when you have a Rant thread.

Where you at ray? Time for your boo this man insert

Bottom Line: CJ3K could be a yardage beast this upcoming season. But Greene's addition has just made him a less reliable Matt Forte.


Spot on. I don't think it could be said any better than that.

Definitely a bounceback from being a bounceback candidate candidate.


Ha Haaaaaaa :D
Everyone was just a little premature on their prediction. This is finally the year CJ gets his 2000 yards again. Also, this is finally the year the world ends

Ray ray? Still waiting on them inserts
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#16 rraayy3

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 12:23 PM

i was kinda liking him this year until the greene signing
love the additions of levitre/walker and they'll be in good shape to add a quality OL (or 2 in) the draft ... plus RB as a whole sucks this year.

i'm surprised the fanboys haven't come out in swarms with the "motivation!" chant now that he's got some competition. still not touching him til the 3rd round at the earliest [even then i'm gonna really have to hate who's available elsewhere]

Edited by rraayy3, 25 March 2013 - 12:24 PM.


#17 Al.Davis

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 04:46 PM

Well....barring injuries, CJ?K probably won't have the 'my O-line sux' excuse this year.

Even with the 'threat' of Shonne Green *cough*, I have to say this offseason + day 1 of draft puts CJ back on on the top of my keeper list. RB is always scarce, and CJ only needs a crack of daylight to take it to the house.

Reflecting back on the pain that was watching Titans games all last year, I wonder if I'm on the right track or just setting myself up for another season of agony. Time will tell, but I wanna know NOW! Thoughts?

#18 Ribobizert

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 03:48 AM

On paper CJ3K's O-line looks to be one of the NFL's best, especially after adding Warmack (maybe Lacy's fall was based on NFL scouts realizing the dominant Bama O line might be the main reason their RBs run wild). I still believe green will be Mike bell light, taking a few touches and goal line TDs from CJ. But yardage wise it looks like he could be CJ2K again.

As a Texans fan i'd be lying if I didn't feel that the 2013 Titans aren't a darkhorse for division champs- simply put Titans games won't be an automatic check in the win column in 2013. I feel the Titans have done some solid off season moves to improve their team.

#19 lilkhmerkid4u

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 01:14 AM

Time to hop back on the CJ2K wagon!!! I'll be targeting him this season

We had one of the worst OLine last season. And i n the offseason so far:

Titans signed Andy Levitre to play one guard, and now they have drafted the best player in the draft in Chance Warmack. He is a starter from day one, and he gives them the mauler they have wanted inside. The Titans also added free agents Chris Spencer of Chicago and Rob Turner of St. Louis to add some veteran depth to the line.

Titans also added blocking TE extraordinaire Delaine Walker from the 49ers

And in the 4th round drafted Cal's Center Brian Schwenke:

Todd McShay just raved about the pick on ESPN, saying Schwenke was the nastiest, toughest offensive linemen he’s seen on tape all season.



Mike Mayock:"One more thing big picture with Tennessee, they sign Levitre in the offseason, draft Warmack, and now get the Center, their offensive line has gone through an awesome transformation. You want to be a tailback in Tennessee." --Mike Mayock



Then you add: Locker/CJ2K/Shonne Green in the backfield

And the WRs: Britt/ Washington / Kendall Wright / and we just drafted Justin Hunter

BOOM!

Edited by lilkhmerkid4u, 28 April 2013 - 01:15 AM.

*12 TEAM - 1pt PPR *

QB - T. ROMO - M. VICK

RB - D.MARTIN - R.BUSH - A.BROWN

WR - D. BOWE - P.GARCON - A. BROWN

WR - J. BLACKMON -  J. GORDON - T. AUSTIN

TE - G.OLSEN - J. FINLEY

#20 RMJ_12

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 01:43 PM


Mike Mayock:"One more thing big picture with Tennessee, they sign Levitre in the offseason, draft Warmack, and now get the Center, their offensive line has gone through an awesome transformation. You want to be a tailback in Tennessee." --Mike Mayock



Then you add: Locker/CJ2K/Shonne Green in the backfield

And the WRs: Britt/ Washington / Kendall Wright / and we just drafted Justin Hunter

BOOM!

locker, cj, and shonn greene are NOT reasons why the titans would be any good lol

Edited by RMJ_12, 28 April 2013 - 01:45 PM.





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