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Roberto Hernandez 2013 OutlookIs the Former Fausto TB's Newest Rodney?


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33 replies to this topic

#1 96mnc

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 07:55 PM

Normally I'd laugh at the very thought of discussing this guy except for a couple of reasons:

- He's an extreme GB pitcher with one of the league's best defenses (if not the best) behind him
- TB is a pitchers park
- He's always had a little talent
- In 2011 TB picked up Farnsworth off the scrap heap and he became a stud.  Then last year they did the same with Rodney.  They obviously know what they're doing down there.

Any thoughts?  I'm not even going to bother trying to make a statistical prediction. Has anyone seen him pitch this spring?

Edited by 96mnc, 19 March 2013 - 08:00 PM.


#2 jb_power

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 07:59 PM

96, Thanks for the chuckle!

#3 96mnc

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 08:00 PM

View Postjb_power, on 19 March 2013 - 07:59 PM, said:

96, Thanks for the chuckle!

Glad to oblige.  It's crazy but the Rays do some crazy things and then have them work out for them.

#4 jb_power

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 08:05 PM

View Post96mnc, on 19 March 2013 - 08:00 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 19 March 2013 - 07:59 PM, said:

96, Thanks for the chuckle!

Glad to oblige.  It's crazy but the Rays do some crazy things and then have them work out for them.

I know, I know.  I drafted Farnsworth last year in my early March draft as my #2 closer.  He went on the DL so I picked Joel Peralta.  Rodney got a save in week 1 and I was swearing at myself for even putting in a WW claim on friggin Fernando Rodney ... I couldn't believe I was doing it.

Turned out I got him off the WW and I now consider myself the 2nd luckiest man on the face of this earth (behind Lou Gerhig at #1 obviously).

Edited by jb_power, 19 March 2013 - 08:06 PM.


#5 crazybob60

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 09:00 PM

It will be interesting to see what he does, but doesn't he still have to beat out Jeff Niemann for that final spot in the rotation?
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#6 96mnc

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 04:25 PM

View Postcrazybob60, on 19 March 2013 - 09:00 PM, said:

It will be interesting to see what he does, but doesn't he still have to beat out Jeff Niemann for that final spot in the rotation?

Yeah, he does.  But the Rays are rumored to be looking to trade Niemann.  With Cobb and Archer in house along with possibly Former Fausto I understand why.  I can see teams like the Rangers, Brewers, and now Angels all looking for a SP.

#7 TheWrightStuff

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 07:21 PM

what do you guys (who have seen him possibly) make of this guy's spring performance so far? he looks like he has a chance to take a rotation spot...and of course its silly to imagine
he'd have an immediate turnaround like Rodney did in TB last year...but, hey maybe they have figured things out with the both of them coming off of subpar seasons...any value to him?
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#8 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:15 PM

I just stumbled across this guy's numbers on Fangraphs. On the surface so far it's just been same old Fausto/Roberto. However, his peripherals are intriguing. The Rays have knack for getting the most out of certain pitchers who were previously written off; I think we may have something here.
I'd keep my eye on him tomorrow.

#9 AnonymousRob

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 20 April 2013 - 12:15 PM, said:

I just stumbled across this guy's numbers on Fangraphs. On the surface so far it's just been same old Fausto/Roberto. However, his peripherals are intriguing. The Rays have knack for getting the most out of certain pitchers who were previously written off; I think we may have something here.
I'd keep my eye on him tomorrow.

He's on my watch list as well. I'm skeptical he's anything different but the Rays are one of the teams who warrant respect with pitchers. It's possible he has a serviceable season.

http://www.fangraphs...am-new-pitcher/
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#10 odouls03

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 03:14 PM

View PostAnonymousRob, on 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 20 April 2013 - 12:15 PM, said:

I just stumbled across this guy's numbers on Fangraphs. On the surface so far it's just been same old Fausto/Roberto. However, his peripherals are intriguing. The Rays have knack for getting the most out of certain pitchers who were previously written off; I think we may have something here.
I'd keep my eye on him tomorrow.

He's on my watch list as well. I'm skeptical he's anything different but the Rays are one of the teams who warrant respect with pitchers. It's possible he has a serviceable season.

http://www.fangraphs...am-new-pitcher/

I've never been a fan of this guy, but check out his swinging strike rate.  It's over 10%, good for top 10 in the AL.  So it's not just that his K rate is up due to some called third strikes, it's that he's actually making guys swing and miss a ton.  Combined with the fact that his GB% is over 50%, and I think we may have something here.  The reason he's getting hurt right now is that his strand rate is around 53%.  That's awful.  League average is 72%.  Combined with the fact that his HR/FB rate is around 14%, and you see why he's given up a lot of runs.  League average HR/FB rate is around 8%.  If he holds onto the 5th starter spot long enough, those rates are bound to regress toward league average.  Once that happens, if he still has that swinging strike rate around 10% (and swinging strike rate is one of the fastest things to stabilize), he could be in for a nice season.  Let's just hope the luck dragons are on his side tomorrow.

#11 odouls03

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 03:16 PM

Oh, and one last thing to point out -- he's throwing his changeup a lot more.  So there's a skills change to back up his new and improved swinging strike rate and k rate.  I know it's still early and small sample size and all, but t's exciting to find a guy like this.  Hope he pans out.

#12 9703

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 12:37 AM

Pitched well against Oakland.

Edited by The Harsh, 22 April 2013 - 06:27 AM.
Removed BC content.


#13 Curlis

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 07:59 PM

Yea I have just added him in my 20 team Dynasty league, it will be interesting to see how he pans out. I had no idea this was Fausto Carmona until this topic lol.

#14 AnonymousRob

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 05:47 PM

http://www.fangraphs...fausto-carmona/

Interesting article. Still haven't added him but he's rapidly moving up my watch list.
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#15 9703

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 12:58 PM

I'm starting him this week.

At home against Toronto (not a bad lineup despite the early season #'s, but I like the fact that all of their best hitters are right-handed) and then against San Diego.

#16 Crusaderfan

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 01:42 PM

I'm closer to jumping in - I added him but have him on my bench this week. Just a gut feeling that TB is the right place for him.

#17 pbjfb

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 10:11 PM

View PostCrusaderfan, on 06 May 2013 - 01:42 PM, said:

I'm closer to jumping in - I added him but have him on my bench this week. Just a gut feeling that TB is the right place for him.

anyone starting home tomorrow at BAL?

#18 pbjfb

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 10:50 PM

i think he's gonna be a good add soon, but i would avoid playing him tomorrow because he has already played baltimore twice for a total of 7 ER.

#19 Z06vette

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 11:13 PM

Reduces the home run ball and you have a good pitcher here.  Might be becoming that already - 3 of the last 4 starts have been good. His change-up is the BIG strike out pitch. I like his slider too.

I started him against San Diego, he pitched pretty good. I did notice in that game he was having some problems throwing the change-up - I mean for strikes. Threw more sliders and that pitch helped him out.

Edited by Z06vette, 17 May 2013 - 11:16 PM.

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#20 baltimore_boy

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Posted 18 May 2013 - 03:26 PM

This guy sucks. 4 runs already on 2 homers and a double off the bottom of the wall. I know 3 of his last 4 starts haven't been bad, but how long until they go to Archer/Odorizzi/Colome? They have too many good pitching prospects to come up that Hernandez can't make it too much longer.
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