260 replies to this topic

[dorsett33]

Any thoughts on Rick Porcello in 2013?  He is currently battling Smyly for the 5th spot in the Tigers rotation and is having a lights-out spring--18 innings 18 K's/0BB's 2.50ERA .209 BAA

At 25 he is still young and plays on a team that scores runs.  In many leagues he is going undrafted.  Finally rumors that he could get traded might help him move up to a 3 or 4 starter on another team.  At the ridiculously low price Im buying.

[FantasyShmantasy]

Porcello is always an intriguing guy. He is still so young and has a lot to like, but it just hasn't come together yet. As a last-round or undrafted add, he's worth a shot. Very nice spring numbers.

[StuPitt]

Don't waste your time drafting him.  The Tigers are doing a great job of increasing interest.  They will trade him and the way they are going they will get a premium for him.  I still think Detroit would be smart to keep him, but if they get a great offer than maybe moving him is the way to go.  He makes good insurance for the Tigers.  What are the chances the 5 other Tiger starters go the full season without injuries.  Both Scherzer and Fister missed a lot of time last year.

[parrothead]

dorsett33, on 20 March 2013 - 08:09 AM, said:

Any thoughts on Rick Porcello in 2013?  He is currently battling Smyly for the 5th spot in the Tigers rotation and is having a lights-out spring--18 innings 18 K's/0BB's 2.50ERA .209 BAA

At 25 he is still young and plays on a team that scores runs.  In many leagues he is going undrafted.  Finally rumors that he could get traded might help him move up to a 3 or 4 starter on another team.  At the ridiculously low price Im buying.

The one thing when a guy has an amazing spring or a rough spring, I look back to their Springs of the past.  I did this with Lincecum to see that even when he was the best P in baseball, the guy was throwing up 6+ ERA in Spring, so its really tough to gauge.  I did the same last night with Porcello and found 2 things:
1. The last three years, he has had really good springs, I think two of the years the ERA was in the 1's in 17-22 innings.
2. The difference this year in the K's.  His K rate in the past 3 springs has been very similar to what it is in the regular season (which quite frankly is a liability in roto) but this year its a K per inning in spring.  So maybe something is different.

Im not sure Im a buyer on Porcello yet, but what its really doing is muddling my feelings towards Smyly who with 94K in 99innings on a good team I really thought could be a good end of the night $1 candidate to fill the last few spots on the staff.

[96mnc]

parrothead, on 20 March 2013 - 09:54 AM, said:

dorsett33, on 20 March 2013 - 08:09 AM, said:

Any thoughts on Rick Porcello in 2013?  He is currently battling Smyly for the 5th spot in the Tigers rotation and is having a lights-out spring--18 innings 18 K's/0BB's 2.50ERA .209 BAA

At 25 he is still young and plays on a team that scores runs.  In many leagues he is going undrafted.  Finally rumors that he could get traded might help him move up to a 3 or 4 starter on another team.  At the ridiculously low price Im buying.

The one thing when a guy has an amazing spring or a rough spring, I look back to their Springs of the past.  I did this with Lincecum to see that even when he was the best P in baseball, the guy was throwing up 6+ ERA in Spring, so its really tough to gauge.  I did the same last night with Porcello and found 2 things:
1. The last three years, he has had really good springs, I think two of the years the ERA was in the 1's in 17-22 innings.
2. The difference this year in the K's.  His K rate in the past 3 springs has been very similar to what it is in the regular season (which quite frankly is a liability in roto) but this year its a K per inning in spring.  So maybe something is different.

Im not sure Im a buyer on Porcello yet, but what its really doing is muddling my feelings towards Smyly who with 94K in 99innings on a good team I really thought could be a good end of the night $1 candidate to fill the last few spots on the staff.

He's scrapped his slider for a curveball...and it's a really nice curve also.  Buy...

[malta69]

I'd love to see him end up in the NL.

[sasnumberonefan]

malta69, on 20 March 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

I'd love to see him end up in the NL.

Amen. He's got a great amount of potential.

[cymbaline]

He's way too hittable.  His BABIP is consistently above the league average -- an indication that hitters aren't just making contact but really teeing off.  His K rate is putrid for fantasy purposes.  I could live with it if I'm punting K's but then I'd be looking at decent pitchers like Buerhle or Hudson.  Porcello would be among the last guys I'd ever consider rostering except for streaming.

Among ERA qualifiers ...
2012:  7th lowest in K/9
2011: 12th lowest in K/9
2010: 4th lowest in K/9

2010-2012: 4th highest BABIP

Superb guy for razzball leagues, at least for the last few years.

There has been some talk about making him the closer, in which case he'd have a ton of value.  But he still seems to be a longshot for that role.

Edited by cymbaline, 20 March 2013 - 11:48 AM.

[jammer2]

I noticed a growing trend this spring, Porcello is getting a lot of easy starts. A lot of home games at Joker Merchant Stadium, with a favourable match up....ie another teams B team with very few ML ballplayers on it. Seems like the Tigers are sheltering him in a way, trying to make sure they get the maximum value return for their guy, which necessiatates wicked spring training numbers...just say'in, be careful!

[Hanghow]

I am buying. Like 96mnc said, he's replaced his slider with a curveball, which makes me optimistic that there's something to his apparent improvement this spring. His slider last year was so bad, it was the subject of a Fangraphs post titled "Stop Throwing That":

http://www.fangraphs...rcellos-slider/

[96mnc]

cymbaline, on 20 March 2013 - 11:48 AM, said:

He's way too hittable.  His BABIP is consistently above the league average -- an indication that hitters aren't just making contact but really teeing off.  His K rate is putrid for fantasy purposes.  I could live with it if I'm punting K's but then I'd be looking at decent pitchers like Buerhle or Hudson.  Porcello would be among the last guys I'd ever consider rostering except for streaming.

Among ERA qualifiers ...
2012:  7th lowest in K/9
2011: 12th lowest in K/9
2010: 4th lowest in K/9

2010-2012: 4th highest BABIP

Superb guy for razzball leagues, at least for the last few years.

There has been some talk about making him the closer, in which case he'd have a ton of value.  But he still seems to be a longshot for that role.

There are times that a pitcher (or hitter) mkes a very real change in their approach or stuff that leads to a jump in performance.  We saw it with the Shark and Rodney last year.  I'm speculating that Porcello could be that guy this year based on a very real change in his arsenal.  

If he gets traded to SD I'm going to be extremely excited.  A (potential) increase in K's due to change in stuff, a better defensive infield behind him, a move to the DH-less NL from the AL, AND Petco Park?  Sign me up.

[Suikoden]

Know who Porcello reminds me of? Kazmir...but with much less talent.

[Whoopie!]

Can someone please explain to me why Porcello seems to be a guy alot of teams want?

He's been garbage since he's entered the league.  What am i not understanding here?

[holyBrowns]

He's a former top prospect, he's young, Tigers always rush pitchers, and he's 18/0 k/bb ratio right now in spring training.

[StuPitt]

Detroit always over valued Porcello.  He does not throw hard enough and has a limited supply of pitches.  But starting pitchers are a premium and he is still young.  Personally unless they can get a nice closer if I am the Tigers I keep Porcello because one of the other 5 starters will get hurt at some point.  I give Dombrowski a lot of credit he is really playing this cool.  Should of done the same with Boesch though.  A Boesch/Porcello package was not bad.

[brockpapersizer]

With his low K amount, his ERA and WHIP have to be damn low to balance that out. I don't think he even has Tim Hudson upside, especially in the AL.

He'll have value, but personally I hope the hype train continues and someone else takes him earlier than he should go.

[Zumayaaaa]

StuPitt, on 21 March 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Detroit always over valued Porcello.  He does not throw hard enough and has a limited supply of pitches.  But starting pitchers are a premium and he is still young.  Personally unless they can get a nice closer if I am the Tigers I keep Porcello because one of the other 5 starters will get hurt at some point.  I give Dombrowski a lot of credit he is really playing this cool.  Should of done the same with Boesch though.  A Boesch/Porcello package was not bad.

Why do people assume Porcello doesn't throw hard? Because of the lack of K's?

[Hanghow]

Average fastball velocity improved last year to 93.46, which is of course not bad. A number of his other stats also trended the right direction last year, and that was while he was throwing the worst pitch in baseball (his slider according to fangraphs), which has now been replaced with a more competent (at least) curveball. His K/9 and FIP both improved last year (FIP was under 4, so look out if he gets traded to a team with a better infield defense). Also, remember that he is younger than Stephen Strasburg... plenty of guys would be making these adjustments at the minor league levels at this point in their career and could still be thought of as top prospects. I think as far as late sleepers go, you won't do much better.

[MOFUGGER]

I have always been a believer. Porcello definitely did a lot of his learning at the big league level. I also feel he's going to really get it together this year. A great value here.

[Whoopie!]

Just because you throw hard doesnt mean you will K anyone. or be any good either.

SIncerely,
Mike Pelfrey