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Johan Santana 2013 Outlook


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#1 gbill2004

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 05:40 AM

Thoughts/projections for Johan this season?  Can he regain his former elite form?
Competitive start 2 QB, 0.5 PPR, 12 team H2H deep re-draft league, all TDs = 6 pts. Roster below (starting spots in brackets):

QB (2) - Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Geno Smith
RB/FLEX (2) - DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Jeremy Miller, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram
WR (4) - Calvin Johnson, Michael Crabtree, TY Hilton, Rueben Randle, Josh Gordon, Kenny Britt, Justin Hunter, Brian Quick
TE (2) - Rob Gronkowski, Heath Miller, Martellus Bennett, Jared Cook
K (2) - Shayne Graham, Cody Parkey
DEF (2) - Cleveland, New Orleans
IDP (4) - Lavonte David, Jared Mayo, Alec Ogletree, Ryan Shazier

#2 MOFUGGER

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 07:14 AM

Not a chance. He's no better than a middle of the road starter, at best. I think you'll see some decent games but I think his best days are farrrrrrrrrrrr behind him. When I see "shoulder" I generally run away.

#3 Jay85

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 08:55 AM

I have him and now i will just drop him...
TEAM A - 10 team H2H - 6pt Td League
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RB - Zac Stacy & Toby Gerhart  TE - Kyle Rudolph
W/T - Michael Floyd  W/R - Trent Richardson  K - Steven Hauschka  DEF - New England
BN -  Jay Cutler, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Fred Jackson, Bernard Pierce, Benny Cunningham

#4 elrey

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 10:12 AM

If you take away his last 5 starts last season where he was obviously pitching hurt he had a 2.76 ERA, was striking out a batter an inning and he threw a no-hitter so the talent is still there. He's one of the smartest pitchers in the league, has great command and his change-up is still deadly so if he pitches healthy I can see a 3ish ERA and a 8.5 K/9 which is excellent value given where he is being drafted. The big question of course is his health.

Edited by elrey, 22 March 2013 - 10:15 AM.


#5 gbill2004

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 10:19 AM

Whats his current health like?  Whats his velocity looking like in camp?
Competitive start 2 QB, 0.5 PPR, 12 team H2H deep re-draft league, all TDs = 6 pts. Roster below (starting spots in brackets):

QB (2) - Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Geno Smith
RB/FLEX (2) - DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Jeremy Miller, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram
WR (4) - Calvin Johnson, Michael Crabtree, TY Hilton, Rueben Randle, Josh Gordon, Kenny Britt, Justin Hunter, Brian Quick
TE (2) - Rob Gronkowski, Heath Miller, Martellus Bennett, Jared Cook
K (2) - Shayne Graham, Cody Parkey
DEF (2) - Cleveland, New Orleans
IDP (4) - Lavonte David, Jared Mayo, Alec Ogletree, Ryan Shazier

#6 elrey

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 10:21 AM

View Postgbill2004, on 22 March 2013 - 10:19 AM, said:

Whats his current health like?  Whats his velocity looking like in camp?

He's going to start the season the the DL but he's only expected to miss a start or two. Haven't read any reports on his fastball

#7 ludawg23

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 10:37 AM

He'll probably be pretty good the 1st half of the season...unload him before the 2nd half starts.  

After that no hitter last year, he fell apart but he still knows how to pitch.
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C - Lucroy
1st - V-Mart
2nd - Kipnis
SS - Castro
3rd - Aramis
OF - Trout, Choo, Bautisa
UTIL - Pujols, Panda, Lind
BENCH - Mesoraco, R. Davis, Baez

SP - Anibal, Shields, Iwakumi, Cashner, Samardzija, E. Santana, Hudson, McHugh, Worley
RP - Doolittle, Casilla, McGee

#8 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 March 2013 - 11:57 AM

I remember posting in the Johan thread after he threw it being skeptical of him being able to survive the 134 pitch outing.  It appears he was not able to survive.  So hopefully the Mets are much more cautious with him this season and keep him around 100 pitch counts.

#9 dman27

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 12:19 AM

I drafted him as a last pick... I have faith in him, he's a smart pitcher with the experience. I'm just waiting for yahoo to change him over to a DL spot already!! So I can grab another starter for the first couple of weeks!
FOOTBALL Yahoo 12 Team 0.5PPR
QB: Peyton Manning
WR: Victor Cruz, Larry Fitz, Torrey Smith
RB: Montee Ball, Trent Richardson
TE: Vernon Davis
Flex: MJD
K: Steven Hauschka
DEF: STL
Bench: Carlos Hyde, Brian Hartline, Darren Sproles, Johnny Manziel, Aaron Dobson, Jonathan Dwyer

BaseballYahoo 10 team
C: Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Albert Pujols 2B: Dustin Pedroia 3B: Nolan Arenado, Josh Harrison SS: Ian Desmond
OF: Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Nelson Cruz, Lucas Duda, JD Martinez, Korge Soler
SP: Hiroki Kuroda, Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Pineda, Andrew Cashner, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Tillman, Marcus Stroman
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, David Robertson, Edward Mujica
DL: Daniel Murphey(1B,2B), George Springer, Sean Doolittle

#10 dman27

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:01 AM

correction he's out another 6 weeks, so consider him back early May... but If you have DL slots, it can't hurt to stash him!
FOOTBALL Yahoo 12 Team 0.5PPR
QB: Peyton Manning
WR: Victor Cruz, Larry Fitz, Torrey Smith
RB: Montee Ball, Trent Richardson
TE: Vernon Davis
Flex: MJD
K: Steven Hauschka
DEF: STL
Bench: Carlos Hyde, Brian Hartline, Darren Sproles, Johnny Manziel, Aaron Dobson, Jonathan Dwyer

BaseballYahoo 10 team
C: Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Albert Pujols 2B: Dustin Pedroia 3B: Nolan Arenado, Josh Harrison SS: Ian Desmond
OF: Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Nelson Cruz, Lucas Duda, JD Martinez, Korge Soler
SP: Hiroki Kuroda, Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Pineda, Andrew Cashner, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Tillman, Marcus Stroman
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, David Robertson, Edward Mujica
DL: Daniel Murphey(1B,2B), George Springer, Sean Doolittle

#11 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 06:18 AM

http://hardballtalk....-pitch/related/

I've said it before, but it bears repeating - when it comes to labrum reconstruction, it's usually a career-killer.   Add him to the long list of guys who just never come back the same way afterwards.   Usually, a DL spot is one that carries almost no risk, but there are likely way better options to carry on the DL than Johan, given the above.

At least the Mets can buy him out after this year.
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#12 MOFUGGER

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:02 AM

I just kicked him to the curb in a 14 team, deep roster dynasty. No regrets.

#13 Ben Edelman

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:54 PM

View Postelrey, on 22 March 2013 - 10:21 AM, said:

View Postgbill2004, on 22 March 2013 - 10:19 AM, said:

Whats his current health like?  Whats his velocity looking like in camp?

He's going to start the season the the DL but he's only expected to miss a start or two. Haven't read any reports on his fastball

Ha ha ha ha ha.  "Only expected to miss a start or two".  This is like the guy who pumps and dumps penny stocks.

If he were a hitter (e.g. Carl Crawford), this would be a totally different conversation.  But as a pitcher, his odds of a comeback and really returning to form are incredibly slim.  The last starting pitcher I can remember returning to elite form after a two-year outage was Curt Schilling 1994-1995.  A few relievers have done it as well (Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen)

I'll put his over/under at 95 IP and 5.5 W this year.  They will probably be 95 quality innings, but you can likely get just as much out of Mike Adams or Kenley Jansen as you will out of Santana.
FRBRL 1995-present.  12-team 4x4 Roto auction keeper, NL-only.
C: Mesoraco, Nieves
1/3: Lamb, Frandsen, Rendon
2/S: Alcantara, Weeks, Segura
O/U: Yelich, M. Taylor, Harper, Maybin, Bourjos, McKenry
SP: none
RP: Clippard, N. Ramirez, Mejia, Fujikawa, Rondon, Quackenbush, Morris, Ottavino, C. Martinez, League
Min: Bryant, JP Crawford, Piscotty, K. Parker, T. Sanchez, R. Montero, Erlin, Hahn
DL: Kelly, T Jordan, Quentin, Capps, Morton, C. Ross, Tulowitzki, Souza,
Yeah, I'm dumping this year.

#14 pfresh

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 06:01 PM

"Re-tears his shoulder. Season ending surgery is likely"

Almost drafted him. Glad I didn't.
NFL 2014   12-Team League 9th pick Overall    Redraft    Record: 1-0    Going for the 3-Peat.. Going to be hard
QB: Aaron Rodgers
WR1: Vincent Jackson   WR2: Julian Edelman WR3: Kelvin Benjamin
RB1: Demarco Murray RB2: Zac Stacy
TE: Vernon Davis   Defense: San Francisco Kicker: Justin Tucker
Bench: Carlos Hyde, Marcus Wheaton, Anquan Boldin, Mark Ingram, Matt Asiata
NFL 2014   10-Team League    3rd pick Overall Redraft Record: 1-0   Going for the Repeat
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WR1: Keenan Allen   WR2: Victor Cruz WR3: Wes Welker
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TE: Greg Olsen    Defense: Carolina Kicker: Mike Nugent
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#15 Neymar

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 06:03 PM

Wow.  I'd imagine his career is more than likely finished.

#16 baltimore_boy

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 06:04 PM

It's a shame that this will likely end his career. He was really promising earlier in his career and it's a shame that this is how it will end.
Bring back Ray!

#17 novaeagles21

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 07:04 PM

Definitely a shame. This guy's no hitter last year was one of the highlights of the season, but can't help but feel it also contributed to hasten his demise.

Edited by RotoRaysfan, 28 March 2013 - 08:36 PM.
Mets rotation discussion moved to Mets 2013 thread....

12 Team H2H (AVG, OPS, R, HR, RBI, NSB, RC - IP, K, W, QS, ERA, WHIP, K/9, SV)

C:   Salvador Perez
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Mike Moustakas
SS: Elvis Andrus
OF:   Mike Trout
OF:   Justin Upton
OF:   Yoenis Cespedes
UTIL: Carlos Gomez
Bench : Ryan Howard, Martin Prado, Oscar Taveras

P:   Felix Hernandez, Matt Moore, Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Alex Cobb, Julio Teheran, David Phelps, Andrew Cashner
RP:   Greg Holland, Ernesto Frieri, Bobby Parnell, Heath Bell, David Hernandez
DL:   Michael Pineda, Cory Luebke

#18 HAzE024

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 02:36 AM

RIP

#19 trojans888

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 03:59 AM

View Postnovaeagles21, on 28 March 2013 - 07:04 PM, said:

Definitely a shame. This guy's no hitter last year was one of the highlights of the season, but can't help but feel it also contributed to hasten his demise.

As a Mets fan it was well worth it.

#20 Fantasy Fiend

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 04:57 AM

View Postpfresh, on 28 March 2013 - 06:01 PM, said:

"Re-tears his shoulder. Season ending surgery is likely"

Almost drafted him. Glad I didn't.

Somebody kept him in my keeper league for $1. Feel bad for them lol.