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Hakeem Nicks 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 10:42 AM

We know, he's "injury prone". Moving on ...

per game production in 2012 puts him top 25 for WRs (on 1 leg)
in 2011, 12th overall WR.
in 2010, 7th overall WR.



So, at what point in drafts do you stop pretending the WRs you draft instead are magically safe from injury and take the risk with a guy that has produced borderline top 10 production the 2 years before? I'm sure a lot of people will be turned off by his disaster of a 2012, but the guy was literally playing on 1 leg most weeks.

It's also his contract year and the Giants have already been rumored to be focusing on his long term extension rather than Cruz.

#2 cbe_88

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 12:02 PM

One of the bigger risks I'm think of gambling on in my drafts come August.

If he lasts to the 5th round he'll be pretty hard to resist. Classic risk-reward with his elite talent, and I think Eli bounces back well next year.

4th round or earlier, he can be someone else's headache, but you'd be foolish not to at least consider him by the 5th. If he stays on the field he's a lock for extremely solid production.

He's the Murray of WR's. If he just stays on the field he's extremely solid production.

Edited by cbe_88, 26 March 2013 - 12:02 PM.


#3 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 12:42 PM

Before this thread derails into the oblivion of upside vs. injury prone ...

What WRs are "safer" and offer his top 10 potential? (could even argue ~ top 5 if he played a full season) Basically, who would you definitely rather have? (I rank WRs in tiers, individual ranks are way too subjective).

Already finished 7/12th while missing time ... sky high potential with 16 games.

Edited by rraayy3, 26 March 2013 - 12:43 PM.


#4 FantasyGuru24

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:08 PM

He should ball .. But we say that every year .. Top 7 potential for sure though.. Has Dez and D.Thomas potential

#5 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:21 PM

It's not like this is speculation, He's already been a top 10 WR and has been a stud for 2 of the last 3 years.

Coming off a horrible year ... contract year ... could be a huge steal this year. He'll definitely be the cheapest WR with "elite" potential.

#6 DocJ

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:23 PM

How broad are your tiers?

Tron
_______

Green
Julio
Marshall
Bryant
Thomas
_______

Johnson, Harvin, Decker, White, VJax
(Nicks thrown in somewhere in this tier)

So yes, if go RB, RB and maybe get Nicks and VJax in the 3-4th I'd be pretty happy.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 2-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#7 FantasyGuru24

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:29 PM

I would take Decker outta that group .. Cobb should be there instead

#8 DocJ

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:37 PM

I would take Decker outta that group .. Cobb should be there instead


Yes he could surely be thrown in there too, once you get to that 3rd tier one could make an argument for a solid 8-10 players to be put in it.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 2-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#9 FantasyGuru24

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:43 PM

It's not like this is speculation, He's already been a top 10 WR and has been a stud for 2 of the last 3 years.

Coming off a horrible year ... contract year ... could be a huge steal this year. He'll definitely be the cheapest WR with "elite" potential.


You use that term "stud" rather loosely when describing Nicks .. I don't know what type of fantasy leagues you play in but in my league he ranked:

#55 in 2012, #11 in 2011, and #9 in 2010 ..

Does your league reward points for missing games?

#10 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:46 PM

i consider guys that perform like top 10 players at their position studs. last time i checked 11 and 9 were pretty close to 10.

No, but we do reward points for longer TDs so he finished 7th one year in mine. It's also a 14 team league with 42 starting WRs (14 teams/3 WRs ... 14x3 = 42)... so yeah i think a guy that's produced top 10 numbers at such a young age is a "stud".

The fact that this guy has produced the way he has in 2/3 seasons (while missing games and those 0s counted in) shows how good of a player he is. So did his historic playoff run on the road to the SB, and the actual 100/10 catches he had in the game too - despite Belichek focusing on taking him out of the game.

Yeah, he's a stud.

Edited by rraayy3, 26 March 2013 - 01:50 PM.


#11 FantasyGuru24

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:52 PM

He's gotta produce like a Top 5 WR to be considered a stud .. Something Cruz did last year and something Cobb did this past year .. He didn't miss that many games in 2011 and 2010 and was the 10th best Wr

#12 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:59 PM

oh 5 is "stud"? my bad didn't get the memo.

the 5th and 10th overall WR differ in ~1 point per game on average in 2011/2012, so totally worth arguing over.

Also Cruz was 12th, Cobb 17th. So ... yeah.

#13 cbe_88

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 02:03 PM

I would take Decker outta that group .. Cobb should be there instead


I can't be on board with Decker with Welker there now.

I think V-Jax is the worst fantasy WR I'd take over Nicks. Jordy Nelson is cutting it close.

I think I'd take Nicks over Colston though. He's right in that range.

#14 FantasyGuru24

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 02:06 PM

Well in my league we get special team points as well so Cobb finished #6 .. I'd take Cruz and Cobb both over Hicks .. Hicks is a better WR in real football but not in fantasy

#15 rraayy3

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 02:37 PM

Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.

#16 petekrum

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:23 PM

Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.


You should, he'll outproduce him.

Edited by petekrum, 26 March 2013 - 04:24 PM.

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#17 Ryan81

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 08:31 PM

I would love to snag this cat as my WR3.

"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

RotoWorld Mock Real League - 14 team, .5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs(4-2, 1st place)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB2: Reggie Bush
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Mohammed Sanu
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Streaming
Bench: Jeremy Hill, Pierre Thomas, Antone Smith, Travaris Cadet, James Starks, Eric Ebron


#18 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 09:06 AM

The Run DMC of the WR position....the problem with Nicks is that he's a 25 year-old with the feet/legs/knees of a 45 year-old. All these injuries and scopes are adding up and him losing a step is a real possibility. I wouldn't be comfortable with using one of my first 4 picks on him. After that, possibly I'd take a chance. Not a guy I'm targeting though.

#19 Ryan81

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 09:18 AM


Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.


You should, he'll outproduce him.

Wat. You're going to take Peyton Manning's #3 target over Eli MAnning's #1?

Eric Decker 2012: 85/1064/13
Hakeem Nicks 2010(13 games played): 79/1052/11
Hakeem Nicks 2011(15 games played): 76/1192/7

I'm not sure how often Nicks was bothered by his injuries in games last year(I'll let Ray comment on that) but I highly doubt Eric Decker produces those numbers again. Peyton spreads the ball around very well and now Welker is in the picture. I definitely don't see him reaching double digit TDs again.

"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

RotoWorld Mock Real League - 14 team, .5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs(4-2, 1st place)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB2: Reggie Bush
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Mohammed Sanu
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Streaming
Bench: Jeremy Hill, Pierre Thomas, Antone Smith, Travaris Cadet, James Starks, Eric Ebron


#20 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 09:29 AM



Well that changes everything ...

and there is no way I'm taking Decker over Nicks - especially with Welker there.


You should, he'll outproduce him.

Wat. You're going to take Peyton Manning's #3 target over Eli MAnning's #1?

Eric Decker 2012: 85/1064/13
Hakeem Nicks 2010(13 games played): 79/1052/11
Hakeem Nicks 2011(15 games played): 76/1192/7

I'm not sure how often Nicks was bothered by his injuries in games last year(I'll let Ray comment on that) but I highly doubt Eric Decker produces those numbers again. Peyton spreads the ball around very well and now Welker is in the picture. I definitely don't see him reaching double digit TDs again.


How about just avoiding both!




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