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Really...annoying blockbuster deal in my inbox...help? Whir


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#1 ComericanPie

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:38 PM

5 keeper H2H league, categories are R HR RBI XBH AVG SB + W QS K SV ERA WHIP

A deal popped up in my inbox from one of my leaguemates, and I'm honestly disappointed that I got it. My team is incredible as it is (arguably the best team in the league but definitely top 2), but I feel that for this year the offer I just got is just such a significant boost for my pitching.

My plan was to have Harper and Trout and NEVER give them up, I just think it would be really cool to be "set" for the next decade (we can keep players as long as we want to). But then I got this offer...

I give up: Bryce, Trout and Marco Estrada.
I get: Adam Jones, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman.

Clear major boost in every pitching category. Strikeouts, QS, wins, ERA, WHIP, saves. I already need a closer badly and this completely fills that need with the second best fantasy closer IMO in the game. Hitting, it helps me some places but hurts me in others. A clear-cut boost this season as long as Hamilton stays on the field, and I still have great keepers if I do this...

In your eyes, is the (pretty big) boost that I'm getting this season worth giving up the luxury of having Bryce and Trout for as long as I want, knowing that I'll be passing up a duo that obviously I'd never be able to put back together in a keeper? WHIR

#2 NYR Fan 116894

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:47 PM

This is just me, but I'd hold onto Harper and Trout. They are the two best young hitters in the game. Strasburg and Chapman are real good, but I always feel there are pitchers out there that can get the job done. Finding the next Trout or Harper is next to impossible, and I'd hold onto them in a keeper league. Plus, it sounds like that is what you want to do. Just my opinion though.

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#3 Dubey

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:47 PM

pass.


Pitchers are way too volatile. I would pretty much never trade Trout in that format. Chapman and Strasburg could be injured by week 2. Trout and Harper are much safer bets to produce at a high level for a long time. I wouldn't do this trade in a 1 year league. In a keeper, not even close.

#4 RotoRanker

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:48 PM

There is no way I do this. I think Trout is overrated but he's still the second best player in this deal (behind Harper). You're relying on a solid Adam Jones and three mega-injury risks.

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#5 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:49 PM

I wouldn't do that. You'd be giving up, in a keeper, two of probably the top 5 producers for years to come and a pitcher with the ability to be a SP2. I don't think essentially a closer is worth that. Pick up a closer off the WW in a month and keep what you have.

#6 Dubey

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 04:52 PM

I think Trout is overrated but he's still the second best player in this deal (behind Harper). You're relying on a solid Adam Jones and three mega-injury risks.



ha. ha. .... ha?


I would bet good money that Harper will never in his career have a season that matches Trout's 2012.

#7 RotoRanker

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:00 PM


I think Trout is overrated but he's still the second best player in this deal (behind Harper). You're relying on a solid Adam Jones and three mega-injury risks.



ha. ha. .... ha?


I would bet good money that Harper will never in his career have a season that matches Trout's 2012.

I would bet the money that Trout won't either. It was a fluke.

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#8 ComericanPie

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:01 PM

I appreciate you guys helping talk me off the ledge, as NYR said I really didn't want to do this but didn't want to feel silly declining. It is impossible to ignore the heavy value of hitting in H2H being the true difference in this deal (well that and keeping these two beasts forever :lol: ).

#9 Dubey

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:02 PM

are you saying that harper is a better player than Trout right now? as in, you would take Harper ahead of Trout in a 1-year pool?

#10 Schwager

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:03 PM

Hold as long as you want? Do just that hold them.... Braun and miggy may make me move the duo in a dynasty type league but that's about it.

http://forums.rotowo...howtopic=341802
20 Team 8 Keepers (Saves and Holds)

C- Devin Mesoracco
1b- Adam LaRoche
2b- Josh Harrison
3b- Adrian Beltre
SS- Dee Gordon
OF- Giancarlo Stanton
OF- Alex Rios
OF- Yoenis Cespedes
UTIL-Tori Hunter
UTIL- Chase Headley
UTIL- Grady Sizemore

SP- J Scherzer, Colon, THudson, ESantana, Niese, Hughes, De La Rosa, Alvarez, Meyer
RP- Papelbon, Freri, HLDS

#11 Dubey

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:06 PM



I think Trout is overrated but he's still the second best player in this deal (behind Harper). You're relying on a solid Adam Jones and three mega-injury risks.



ha. ha. .... ha?


I would bet good money that Harper will never in his career have a season that matches Trout's 2012.

I would bet the money that Trout won't either. It was a fluke.



Sorry for the multiple repies.


He may never replicate that season, but it was also one of the greatest single seasons in the history of baseball. We may never see another season like that in the next 20 years. So from that standpoint, I guess you could say it was a fluke, in the same sense that every truly 'great' season is a fluke.


If you look at Trout's Minor league career, in over 1300 ABs, his stat line is completely outrageous, and nothing indicates that Trout isn't legitimately one of the top 3 players in baseball at this moment.


harper is a special talent, but nothing besides draft hype would suggest that he is ever going to be better than trout, let alone this season.

#12 Bandito

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:31 PM

Don't trade great bats for great arms.

Just don't.

12 team PPR, deep keeper, start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1flex ---> RE-BUILDING
Currently 10-14 (double headers)
    {3 2nd Rd picks and 2 3rds in 2015}
QB- Rodgers
RB- RJennings, Ingram, DRobinson, TRich, Hyde, AWilliams, Michael
WR- Maclin, LaFell, JMatthews, Britt, Johnson (MN)
TE- Daniels,  Cameron
D- 49ers

 
IR- Spiller, Cooks


#13 RotoRanker

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:00 PM

If you look at Trout's Minor league career, in over 1300 ABs, his stat line is completely outrageous, and nothing indicates that Trout isn't legitimately one of the top 3 players in baseball at this moment.


harper is a special talent, but nothing besides draft hype would suggest that he is ever going to be better than trout, let alone this season.

Are you completely ignoring what Trout did in 2011 in the majors? I'll take that into account before I take into account minor league success.

If you want to take into account the minors, consider that he had never hit more than 17 home runs in a single season before last year at any level. That screams his power is a fluke to me.

And Trout weighed over 240 pounds at Angels camp. In the history of baseball, no player has ever stolen 30 bases while weighing 240 pounds. Maybe the extra weight will help his power, but then there goes his elite speed.

I don't consider myself someone who dislikes Trout (he's a borderline first rounder for me), but I think the hype has gotten way out of hand because of what a few "experts" said and then it snowballed from there. I always think people just parrot what "experts" say instead of forming their own opinions. To me, Trout is a guy with one half of a great season. There is no player in the world where that little data could convince me they are worthy of a top pick over a Miguel Cabrera who is an elite performer every single year.


Could Trout be great again? Of course (I wouldn't have him ranked so high if I didn't think he could). But there's way too many things that concern me about him that nobody else being drafted in the first round has.

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#14 vmo1059

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:55 PM

And Trout weighed over 240 pounds at Angels camp. In the history of baseball, no player has ever stolen 30 bases while weighing 240 pounds. Maybe the extra weight will help his power, but then there goes his elite speed.


Meh, it was been pretty known that his supposed weight gain wasn't much of anything.


“People say I gained 30 or 40 pounds, they got a wrong answer,” Trout told Gill. “I came into camp like eight pounds over what I played at last year. I ended the year last year 231, and I came in to camp like 240. I’m down to like 235 now.

“I feel great, feel fine, feel normal, so it’s nothing to worry about. [I have] nine percent body fat, so it’s not like I’m out there crushing hamburgers and eating some bad food. Just working out. I didn’t think it was a big deal.

“I think it got out there because when I got drafted it said I was 210, and they haven’t updated it in like three years. I think that’s why they got 30 pounds. Right now, I probably gained five pounds, if that,” said Trout.


http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/mike-trout-weight-gain-pounds-muscle/177153


#15 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 07:02 PM

In a keeper league, that would not be a good deal.

Oh my friends, my friends, forgive me

That I live and you are gone.

There's a grief that can't be spoken.

There's a pain goes on and on.


#16 Meisce

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 07:09 PM

I'll be a dissenting voice here, just for the sake of it.

The whole point of a league is to win it. It sounds like you are getting a deal that could lock it up for you this year, maybe the next. If I was only concerned with winning in the short term, I might take this. In 2015/6 you will be rebuilding.

If I get more enjoyment out of building a dynasty team then I don't. You have plenty of potential on that team already. I might stay and hope my SPs get hot this year. Lot of potential in your rotation.

Either way, I'd thank the guy for making an interesting and thought provoking trade offer. Nice to see.
12 Team weekly H2H points league, single keeper

C - S. Perez
1B - V. Martinez
2B - M. Betts
3B - Miguel Cabrera
SS - J. Reyes
OF1 - A. Jones
OF2 - J. Bautista
OF3 - H. Pence
UTIL1 - J. Abreu

SP - M. Scherzer, J. Paxton, H. Ryu, C. Carrasco, C. Hamels
RP - M. Shoemaker, M. Stroman

Bench - D. Pedroia, J. Upton, J. Verlander, D. Salazar, A. Cashner  
DL - empty

#17 natti

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 07:42 PM

i would reject it

Are you completely ignoring what Trout did in 2011 in the majors? I'll take that into account before I take into account minor league success.

If you want to take into account the minors, consider that he had never hit more than 17 home runs in a single season before last year at any level. That screams his power is a fluke to me.

And Trout weighed over 240 pounds at Angels camp. In the history of baseball, no player has ever stolen 30 bases while weighing 240 pounds. Maybe the extra weight will help his power, but then there goes his elite speed.

I don't consider myself someone who dislikes Trout (he's a borderline first rounder for me), but I think the hype has gotten way out of hand because of what a few "experts" said and then it snowballed from there. I always think people just parrot what "experts" say instead of forming their own opinions. To me, Trout is a guy with one half of a great season. There is no player in the world where that little data could convince me they are worthy of a top pick over a Miguel Cabrera who is an elite performer every single year.


Could Trout be great again? Of course (I wouldn't have him ranked so high if I didn't think he could). But there's way too many things that concern me about him that nobody else being drafted in the first round has.


i get why you think that trout is a risky 1st round pick... but why do you think that harper is a better play in redraft leagues? he doesn't have the higher ceiling... trout's ceiling is the top player in fantasy baseball and he reached it last season. i guess i just don't see why harper's floor is higher than trout's

Edited by natti, 26 March 2013 - 07:46 PM.


#18 kgizzle

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 07:55 PM

Easy no.
12 teams

PG Mike Conley
SG Jimmy Butler
G Gerald Green
SF Thaddeus Young
PF Shawn Williams
F Nerlens Noel
C Andre Drummond
C Ryan Anderson
Utility Nikola Mirotic
Utility Steven Adams

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Kevin Durant
Iman Shumpert
Draymond Green

(Week league 7 cat no percentages) Punt assists

#19 RotoRanker

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 09:02 PM

i would reject it


Are you completely ignoring what Trout did in 2011 in the majors? I'll take that into account before I take into account minor league success.

If you want to take into account the minors, consider that he had never hit more than 17 home runs in a single season before last year at any level. That screams his power is a fluke to me.

And Trout weighed over 240 pounds at Angels camp. In the history of baseball, no player has ever stolen 30 bases while weighing 240 pounds. Maybe the extra weight will help his power, but then there goes his elite speed.

I don't consider myself someone who dislikes Trout (he's a borderline first rounder for me), but I think the hype has gotten way out of hand because of what a few "experts" said and then it snowballed from there. I always think people just parrot what "experts" say instead of forming their own opinions. To me, Trout is a guy with one half of a great season. There is no player in the world where that little data could convince me they are worthy of a top pick over a Miguel Cabrera who is an elite performer every single year.


Could Trout be great again? Of course (I wouldn't have him ranked so high if I didn't think he could). But there's way too many things that concern me about him that nobody else being drafted in the first round has.


i get why you think that trout is a risky 1st round pick... but why do you think that harper is a better play in redraft leagues? he doesn't have the higher ceiling... trout's ceiling is the top player in fantasy baseball and he reached it last season. i guess i just don't see why harper's floor is higher than trout's

Trout's ceilng is the top player in fantasy. So is Cabrera's. So is Kemp's. So is Braun's. So is Verlander's. So is Harper's. A number of players have that same ceiling. Many without the floor that Trout has.

Also I said I like Harper over Trout in dynasty leagues. Reason is because I think the power is legit (I go by scouts over minor league stats). I don't think Trout is a legit 30 home run guy, and I believe the speed will come down over time (a la Hanley).

I like Trout over Harper in seasonal leagues because speed doesn't need age to develop (I think Harper will continue to get better and better over time while I think we've already seen the best year Trout will ever have). For reference, I view Trout as a late-first/early-second rounder in seasonal leagues. Harper as a late-second/early-third rounder.

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#20 natti

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 09:52 PM

Trout's ceilng is the top player in fantasy. So is Cabrera's. So is Kemp's. So is Braun's. So is Verlander's. So is Harper's. A number of players have that same ceiling. Many without the floor that Trout has.

Also I said I like Harper over Trout in dynasty leagues. Reason is because I think the power is legit (I go by scouts over minor league stats). I don't think Trout is a legit 30 home run guy, and I believe the speed will come down over time (a la Hanley).

I like Trout over Harper in seasonal leagues because speed doesn't need age to develop (I think Harper will continue to get better and better over time while I think we've already seen the best year Trout will ever have). For reference, I view Trout as a late-first/early-second rounder in seasonal leagues. Harper as a late-second/early-third rounder.


gotcha. i admit to skimming through the posts in the thread. i thought that you had harper over trout in redrafts.