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Season Management Best Practices?Strategy, Tips, What do you do?


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#1 Kazmagic

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:19 AM

Happy 2013 Baseball Season!

I'm starting this thread because I need help with in season management.  I prep for the draft and long-term acquisitions (keeper & dynasty leagues) but I feel I go more on gut feeling than analysis during the year.  

Two questions to spur on conversation:
1.  What can you improve on to become a better in season manager?
2.  What are the key variables that you look for year after year?

Once a list is compiled (or during) on what we should evaluate, we can recommend web sites and a methodology.

Here are my initial thoughts on what variables to evaluate.

Batter
1.  Hitter History vs. Pitcher
2.  Hitter History vs. LHP
3.  Hitter History vs. RHP
4.  Ballpark Factor - Overall
5.  Ballpark Factor - LHB
6.  Ballpark Factor - RHB


Pitcher
1.  Pitcher Experience vs. Team
2.  Pitcher Experience - Ballpark
3.  Ballpark Factor - Overall


Websites / Apps
1.  http://www.actasport...aseball_iq_app/
This app has most of the information but it is not in spreadsheet form.  I could not find the 2013 version but the 2012 version is free on itunes.  Search, "baseball IQ".  

Improvement -> Ideally, you could plug in your players and the web site would calculate useful information.

2.  http://www.baseball-...atter=willijo03
Baseball reference search tools.  
Improvement -> you could plug in a player and see his stats against upcoming pitchers.  Instead, you have to plug in information one team at a time.



Thoughts?

#2 baltimore_boy

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:33 AM

I just go off my gut mostly. My league mates think it's silly that that's how I pick up players, but they aren't the ones keeping Bryce Harper and Matt Harvey for cheap in an NL only league this year.
Bring back Ray!

#3 jb_power

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:37 AM

Rule #1 - keep tabs on this forum's monthly closer threads

#4 CocoaButter

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:42 AM

I would get the Rotowire app for Android (not sure what the iphone has going on these days). Best way to quickly pull up the most recent news in baseball.

Also, fantasy alarm seems nice too. I haven't actually used it yet, but it sends you a notification when one of your players is in the news or isn't in the lineup. I only have one team, so this is not a nuisance to me. As long as it works well, it's a great idea.

Edited by CocoaButter, 31 March 2013 - 09:43 AM.


#5 prizl

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:44 AM

If it is an in-season pickup that has nothing to do with my dynasty/keeper future I just go on gut feeling, the streak the player is on, and if that player is going to help me fill any needs.

I will check the game log and most likely career stats to see if this is an exception or a rule, but generally just a gut feeling.

hopefully you have a smart phone that can help you look up info and add/drop/trade players on the fly.

Edited by prizl, 31 March 2013 - 09:44 AM.


#6 Suikoden

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:46 AM

Always use your studs.....till June anyways.
20 team, 4 keepers, standard score league:
QB-Ben Roethlisberger
WR-Dez Bryant
WR-Julio Jones
WR-Desean Jackson
RB-Chris Johnson
RB- Ryan Mathews
TE-Charles Clay
W/R- Allen Hurns BN- Knile Davis BN-BenJarvus Green-Ellis BN-John Brown BN- Jake Locker
K-Dan Bailey, Greg The Leg
Def- Denver, New York Giants

#7 Kazmagic

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 10:28 AM

http://dailybaseball...i-bin/lineup.pl

Has anyone used this web site before?  It looks like the "dashboard" link isn't functioning yet.

They have a nice downloadable schedule excel sheet.  I sorted it to display HOU, MIA, MIN, CLE, CHC, NYM first to play matchups for pitchers.

#8 cymbaline

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 10:35 AM

In addition to the stuff that OP listed, I also use the following variables to evaluate matchups (I do it more for gambling/handicapping but same concepts typically apply to roto/fantasy) ...

- Hot/Not.  I put more weight on recent performance than anything.
- Weather.  Wind and humidity are critical
- Umpiring data.  This is typically used for predicting performance of SP's.

For SB streaming situations only ...
- Pitcher CS%.  Yeah, I'm looking at you AJ Burnett.
- Catcher CS%

#9 cymbaline

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 10:36 AM

View PostKazmagic, on 31 March 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

http://dailybaseball...i-bin/lineup.pl

Has anyone used this web site before?  It looks like the "dashboard" link isn't functioning yet.

They have a nice downloadable schedule excel sheet.  I sorted it to display HOU, MIA, MIN, CLE, CHC, NYM first to play matchups for pitchers.

I used it almost every day last year.  Best site that I know for cherry picking BvP matchups.  Some of the other stuff is pretty good too, like bullpen usage and weather.

#10 djmax101

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:03 PM

View PostKazmagic, on 31 March 2013 - 09:19 AM, said:

Happy 2013 Baseball Season!

I'm starting this thread because I need help with in season management.  I prep for the draft and long-term acquisitions (keeper & dynasty leagues) but I feel I go more on gut feeling than analysis during the year.  

Two questions to spur on conversation:
1.  What can you improve on to become a better in season manager?
2.  What are the key variables that you look for year after year?

Once a list is compiled (or during) on what we should evaluate, we can recommend web sites and a methodology.

Here are my initial thoughts on what variables to evaluate.

Batter
1.  Hitter History vs. Pitcher
2.  Hitter History vs. LHP
3.  Hitter History vs. RHP
4.  Ballpark Factor - Overall
5.  Ballpark Factor - LHB
6.  Ballpark Factor - RHB


Pitcher
1.  Pitcher Experience vs. Team
2.  Pitcher Experience - Ballpark
3.  Ballpark Factor - Overall


Websites / Apps
1.  http://www.actasport...aseball_iq_app/
This app has most of the information but it is not in spreadsheet form.  I could not find the 2013 version but the 2012 version is free on itunes.  Search, "baseball IQ".  

Improvement -> Ideally, you could plug in your players and the web site would calculate useful information.

2.  http://www.baseball-...atter=willijo03
Baseball reference search tools.  
Improvement -> you could plug in a player and see his stats against upcoming pitchers.  Instead, you have to plug in information one team at a time.



Thoughts?

Hitter history v. a certain pitcher is almost completely useless. It's a very tempting stat to look at (I'm guilty of it too), but it's very very rare to have a large enough sample size to draw any real conclusions. It's a stat that has been studied and unfortunately shown to have almost no predictive value for future ABs. The other factors all look good though.

As stated by Cymbaline, weather is a biggie. It might be more important than any of these other factors, especially if games are in jeopardy of being rained out.
10 team H2H Points. The "I waited until round 8 to draft a pitcher" squad.
C: Carlos Santana / 1B: Jose Abreu / 2B: Jose Altuve / SS: Ian Desmond / 3B: Todd Frazier / MI: Dustin Pedroia / CI: Victor Martinez / OF: Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo, Melky Cabrera, Josh Hamilton / Util: George Springer, Khris Davis / Bench/DL: Mark Trumbo
SP: Jordan Zimmerman, Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, Dallas Keuchel, Scott Kazmir, Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, Yordano Ventura / RP: Koji Uehara, Sean Doolittle

10 team H2H Points. The "my work colleagues don't value walks for some reason" squad
C: Russell Martin / 1B: Jose Abreu / 2B: Martin Prado / SS: Ben Zobrist / 3B: Evan Longoria / MI: Aaron Hill / CI: Todd Frazier
OF: Mike Trout, Jose Bautistia, George Springer, Khris Davis, Gregory Polanco / Util: Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun / Bench/DL: Joey Votto, Mark Trumbo, Joe Mauer
SP: Justin Verlander, Masahiro Tanaka, Alex Cobb, Scott Kazmir, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, Tim Hudson, Kyle Lohse /
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, David Robertson, Sean Doolittle / DL: Andrew Cashner

#11 djmax101

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:06 PM

Another stat I like looking at is most added/dropped players each day on ESPN. It's usually a good indicator of events (injuries, trends, breaking news) and helps me recognize which players I need to read up about, as its virtually impossible to follow all baseball news.
10 team H2H Points. The "I waited until round 8 to draft a pitcher" squad.
C: Carlos Santana / 1B: Jose Abreu / 2B: Jose Altuve / SS: Ian Desmond / 3B: Todd Frazier / MI: Dustin Pedroia / CI: Victor Martinez / OF: Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo, Melky Cabrera, Josh Hamilton / Util: George Springer, Khris Davis / Bench/DL: Mark Trumbo
SP: Jordan Zimmerman, Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, Dallas Keuchel, Scott Kazmir, Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, Yordano Ventura / RP: Koji Uehara, Sean Doolittle

10 team H2H Points. The "my work colleagues don't value walks for some reason" squad
C: Russell Martin / 1B: Jose Abreu / 2B: Martin Prado / SS: Ben Zobrist / 3B: Evan Longoria / MI: Aaron Hill / CI: Todd Frazier
OF: Mike Trout, Jose Bautistia, George Springer, Khris Davis, Gregory Polanco / Util: Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun / Bench/DL: Joey Votto, Mark Trumbo, Joe Mauer
SP: Justin Verlander, Masahiro Tanaka, Alex Cobb, Scott Kazmir, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, Tim Hudson, Kyle Lohse /
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, David Robertson, Sean Doolittle / DL: Andrew Cashner

#12 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:08 PM

Outside of the elite pitchers, trust no starter. At all. The only league I've lost the past 6 years involved me trusting starters.

#13 pbjfb

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:22 PM

View Postcymbaline, on 31 March 2013 - 10:35 AM, said:

In addition to the stuff that OP listed, I also use the following variables to evaluate matchups (I do it more for gambling/handicapping but same concepts typically apply to roto/fantasy) ...

- Hot/Not.  I put more weight on recent performance than anything.
- Weather.  Wind and humidity are critical
- Umpiring data.  This is typically used for predicting performance of SP's.

For SB streaming situations only ...
- Pitcher CS%.  Yeah, I'm looking at you AJ Burnett.
- Catcher CS%

hot/not - do you use stats from last 7 days, 14 days, or 30 days the most?

#14 CrypTviLL

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:48 PM

How do you combat someone streaming pitchers? Obviously there is a 6 move limit to the week, but I am unsure how I combat it.

Do I go drop decent players to stream back? Do I take the hit in K's, possibly W's, and hope he implodes ERA/WHIP?
Blah
[ Ƥəɨɳ ]
QB Aaron Rodgers
WR Brandon Marshall
WR A.J. Green
WR Dez Bryant
RB Matt Forte
RB Jamaal Charles
TE Rob Gronkowski
K Matt Prater
DEF Streaming
Bench: Cecil Shorts III, Steven Ridley, Harry Douglas, Le'Veon Bell, Zac Stacy, Danny Amendola

#15 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:53 PM

View PostCrypTviLL, on 31 March 2013 - 12:48 PM, said:

How do you combat someone streaming pitchers? Obviously there is a 6 move limit to the week, but I am unsure how I combat it.

Do I go drop decent players to stream back? Do I take the hit in K's, possibly W's, and hope he implodes ERA/WHIP?
Blah

Anyone who streams properly will not take a hit to ERA/WHIP. Streaming exclusively means you're stacking your P slots with relievers (and good ones since you're taking them where you would take starters). You run away with saves, era, and whip and take a hit in Wins and Ks. With a safe enough lead, you stream the rest of the way trading your relievers for upgrades as needed.

#16 cymbaline

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:56 PM

View Postpbjfb, on 31 March 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

View Postcymbaline, on 31 March 2013 - 10:35 AM, said:

In addition to the stuff that OP listed, I also use the following variables to evaluate matchups (I do it more for gambling/handicapping but same concepts typically apply to roto/fantasy) ...

- Hot/Not.  I put more weight on recent performance than anything.
- Weather.  Wind and humidity are critical
- Umpiring data.  This is typically used for predicting performance of SP's.

For SB streaming situations only ...
- Pitcher CS%.  Yeah, I'm looking at you AJ Burnett.
- Catcher CS%

hot/not - do you use stats from last 7 days, 14 days, or 30 days the most?

1-7 days mostly.  14 and 30 are useful but a guy may be ice cold despite having a good 30 day line.

#17 RenegadeGM

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 03:56 PM

Does anyone know of an app for the iPhone similar to Baseball Press on Android?  I loved Baseball Press for daily lineup info, but now have an iPhone and they don't have an app there.  

I know the forums here are great for that as well, which is great when I'm on my laptop.  When I'm on the go, though, an app is easier than surfing a forum.

I did come across Baseball Alarm, but would prefer something like the Baseball Press app, which simply posts the lineups... I'd rather avoid inputting players from all my various teams and changing it each time I add/drop.

Thanks in advance if anyone can point me in the right direction.

#18 cowbell204

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 04:14 PM

I like to panic after the first week or two and make stupid trades because I'm freaking out.

#19 Orion Braun

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 04:56 PM

View PostRenegadeGM, on 31 March 2013 - 03:56 PM, said:

Does anyone know of an app for the iPhone similar to Baseball Press on Android?  I loved Baseball Press for daily lineup info, but now have an iPhone and they don't have an app there.  

I know the forums here are great for that as well, which is great when I'm on my laptop.  When I'm on the go, though, an app is easier than surfing a forum.

I did come across Baseball Alarm, but would prefer something like the Baseball Press app, which simply posts the lineups... I'd rather avoid inputting players from all my various teams and changing it each time I add/drop.

Thanks in advance if anyone can point me in the right direction.

FWIW, I have an iPhone and I have a "link" to the Baseball Press webpage right on my home screen. Seems to work pretty well and serves the same purpose of an app, I suppose.
No one cares about my teams...

#20 RenegadeGM

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 05:53 PM

View PostOrion Braun, on 31 March 2013 - 04:56 PM, said:

View PostRenegadeGM, on 31 March 2013 - 03:56 PM, said:

Does anyone know of an app for the iPhone similar to Baseball Press on Android?  I loved Baseball Press for daily lineup info, but now have an iPhone and they don't have an app there.  

I know the forums here are great for that as well, which is great when I'm on my laptop.  When I'm on the go, though, an app is easier than surfing a forum.

I did come across Baseball Alarm, but would prefer something like the Baseball Press app, which simply posts the lineups... I'd rather avoid inputting players from all my various teams and changing it each time I add/drop.

Thanks in advance if anyone can point me in the right direction.

FWIW, I have an iPhone and I have a "link" to the Baseball Press webpage right on my home screen. Seems to work pretty well and serves the same purpose of an app, I suppose.

I'll try that, thanks