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Brandon Weeden 2013 Season OutlookChargers East?


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#1 pikerbkb

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:00 PM

Weeden seems to get little respect in the media and FF circles, but I am starting to look at him as a QB2 candidate with upside. Everybody's perspective was skewed by the unprecedented success of young QB talent last year, but by normal standards, Weeden's numbers were actually not bad for a rookie QB especially if you toss out his first game. The new scheme by Norv is going to simplify Weeden's progressions and put him back in the shotgun more, something Weeden is very comfortable with. Then you look at the type of receivers the Browns have with Gordon (6'3"), Little (6'3") and now Nelson (6'5"). You also have Cameron (6'5") set to take over at TE. Feels very similar to the make up of the Charger offense under Norv with a strong armed QB and tall WRs/TEs. Granted TRich is going to get a boatload of touches, but I would not be at all surprised if Weeden puts up some nice stats this year.
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#2 petekrum

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:25 PM

Not sure I quite share your optimism, but if you're right you will be able to snag him really late. Time will tell.
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#3 pikerbkb

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 09:22 PM

Already have him stashed in both of my dynasty leagues. In redraft he is still ww material, but I think he is going to surprise a lot of people. Look what Norv did with Rivers.
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#4 Ryan81

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 10:55 PM

Only leagues I see him being drafted in are 16 team, 2 QB leagues.
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#5 Robrain

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 11:55 PM

I think his upside, at best, is Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque.  He's a plug-and-play QB if he happens to have a great matchup during your starting QB's bye week.  You then try to sell high after the good game.

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

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Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#6 pikerbkb

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:19 AM

View PostRobrain, on 10 April 2013 - 11:55 PM, said:

I think his upside, at best, is Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque.  He's a plug-and-play QB if he happens to have a great matchup during your starting QB's bye week.  You then try to sell high after the good game.
Posted Image

Edited by pikerbkb, 11 April 2013 - 12:21 AM.

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#7 Robrain

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:35 AM

View Postpikerbkb, on 11 April 2013 - 12:19 AM, said:

View PostRobrain, on 10 April 2013 - 11:55 PM, said:

I think his upside, at best, is Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque.  He's a plug-and-play QB if he happens to have a great matchup during your starting QB's bye week.  You then try to sell high after the good game.
Posted Image

For fantasy, it's part him, part the offensive scheme.  When the Pats get ahead, they keep the pedal pushed to the floor and continue to score, score, score, giving Brady a chance at putting up good stats most games.

For many other teams, when they get ahead, they reign in the passing game, which causes supposedly "great" matchups to be hit-or-miss for the QB.  If the team gets ahead early due to a couple of favorable turnovers by their defense (and the Browns defense is pretty decent), they can turn to their run game to run the clock dry the rest of the game, limiting upside for that QB.

As a rule of thumb, I tend to shy away from QB's who have a great RB for this very reason: AP (Vikings - Christian Ponder), Ray Rice (Ravens - Joe Flacco), Trent Richardson (Browns - Brandon Weeden).  It causes that team's QB's weekly production to be more unreliable (fluctuates too much), I feel.

I like Josh Gordon and Trent Richardson for boosting Weeden's stat-potential, but Greg Little does nothing to excite me and now they've lost Cribbs as a fallback option in the passing game.  Unless the TE's finally show up, there is absolutely nothing on that offense that makes me want to actually target Weeden in drafts.  More likely you'll be able to claim him from the Free Agent pool after your league's draft.

Oh, okay, I forgot about David Nelson.  But he has to learn a new offense, right?  He hasn't had the most stellar stats in BUF, but I sort of considered that offense they were running to be a bit of a mess in the first place, so I can't really make any judgements on his ultimate potential based on his time in BUF alone.  However, he's definitely not shown any real stud potential either, and he'd have to 1) first prove that his acl/knee is healthy again before I'd even consider touching him or even slightly upgrading Weeden and 2) prove that he actually has a consistent starting role in that offense.

If the Browns manage to poach DX from the Chargers, I'm willing to revisit Weeden's value, but I don't think Josh Gordon alone is enough to make Weeden a worthy alternative to guys like Matt Stafford/Ryan.  Stafford basically threw for 5K yards in back-to-back seasons, even with a decimated WR corps last year.  Weeden missed one game, but didn't even crack 3,400 passing yards last season (and it's not like he adds bonus points in the rushing department like Wilson/Newton/Griffin do).

I don't really see what massive change was made to the Brown's offense so far this offseason that suddenly makes Brandon Weeden draftable (except in fairly deep leagues).

I'd rather gamble on Philip Rivers super late in drafts than Brandon Weeden, as of this moment.  Again, if DX changes teams and is wearing a Browns uniform come the time of 2013 fantasy drafts, I'd probably bump Weeden's upside to roughly that of the tier Joe Flacco / Eli Manning / Ben Roethlisberger are on.  But I wouldn't be convinced about it until I see that Browns starting offense with DX going nuts during preseason (kind of like the Lions did in 2011).

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#8 maxhyde

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 02:15 AM

I question how useful Weeden will be in fantasy.  I like Gordon quite a bit and Little is fine.  I think Norv works magic with QBs but I would not target him rather end up with Weeden as a backup to my backup if I needed one.  Even though I think they will be trailing alot again this year I just don't think he will establish himself.  Good arm but it just seemed to me he was starting because he was not Colt McCoy.

#9 ILoveArt

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 06:50 AM

Everybody's down on him. I thought he did fine for a rookie with nobody to throw to. All the Cleveland skill position players were young and inexperienced. Last year's rookie QB crop was an abomination, normally you throw rookie QBs into the fire and they struggle. It happens to the best. Peyton Manning finished his rookie year 3-13 once upon a time. Terry Bradshaw was a flaming bag of poo and Steeler Nation hated the rookie's guts.

Now his new GM is down on him. Still it seems like he's going to win the starting job by default anyways though. So the ball is in his court (literally). Hopefully he proves himself.  I think he will. He's probably not worth drafting though since so many other QBs have more upside. If he gets taken at all, it'll be at the tail end of the draft as a low end QB2. Hopefully in a league were you don't get penalized for turnovers.

#10 pikerbkb

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 09:28 AM

View PostRobrain, on 11 April 2013 - 12:35 AM, said:

View Postpikerbkb, on 11 April 2013 - 12:19 AM, said:

View PostRobrain, on 10 April 2013 - 11:55 PM, said:

I think his upside, at best, is Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque.  He's a plug-and-play QB if he happens to have a great matchup during your starting QB's bye week.  You then try to sell high after the good game.
Posted Image

For fantasy, it's part him, part the offensive scheme.  When the Pats get ahead, they keep the pedal pushed to the floor and continue to score, score, score, giving Brady a chance at putting up good stats most games.

For many other teams, when they get ahead, they reign in the passing game, which causes supposedly "great" matchups to be hit-or-miss for the QB.  If the team gets ahead early due to a couple of favorable turnovers by their defense (and the Browns defense is pretty decent), they can turn to their run game to run the clock dry the rest of the game, limiting upside for that QB.

As a rule of thumb, I tend to shy away from QB's who have a great RB for this very reason: AP (Vikings - Christian Ponder), Ray Rice (Ravens - Joe Flacco), Trent Richardson (Browns - Brandon Weeden).  It causes that team's QB's weekly production to be more unreliable (fluctuates too much), I feel.

I like Josh Gordon and Trent Richardson for boosting Weeden's stat-potential, but Greg Little does nothing to excite me and now they've lost Cribbs as a fallback option in the passing game.  Unless the TE's finally show up, there is absolutely nothing on that offense that makes me want to actually target Weeden in drafts.  More likely you'll be able to claim him from the Free Agent pool after your league's draft.

Oh, okay, I forgot about David Nelson.  But he has to learn a new offense, right?  He hasn't had the most stellar stats in BUF, but I sort of considered that offense they were running to be a bit of a mess in the first place, so I can't really make any judgements on his ultimate potential based on his time in BUF alone.  However, he's definitely not shown any real stud potential either, and he'd have to 1) first prove that his acl/knee is healthy again before I'd even consider touching him or even slightly upgrading Weeden and 2) prove that he actually has a consistent starting role in that offense.

If the Browns manage to poach DX from the Chargers, I'm willing to revisit Weeden's value, but I don't think Josh Gordon alone is enough to make Weeden a worthy alternative to guys like Matt Stafford/Ryan.  Stafford basically threw for 5K yards in back-to-back seasons, even with a decimated WR corps last year. Weeden missed one game, but didn't even crack 3,400 passing yards last season (and it's not like he adds bonus points in the rushing department like Wilson/Newton/Griffin do).

I don't really see what massive change was made to the Brown's offense so far this offseason that suddenly makes Brandon Weeden draftable (except in fairly deep leagues).

I'd rather gamble on Philip Rivers super late in drafts than Brandon Weeden, as of this moment.  Again, if DX changes teams and is wearing a Browns uniform come the time of 2013 fantasy drafts, I'd probably bump Weeden's upside to roughly that of the tier Joe Flacco / Eli Manning / Ben Roethlisberger are on.  But I wouldn't be convinced about it until I see that Browns starting offense with DX going nuts during preseason (kind of like the Lions did in 2011).
I hear what you are saying , but he was a ROOKIE. And some of his stats were better than Luck's and RGIII. And Rivers? We'll see how he does as a lame duck starter in a new system. Sounds like they will move on from him sooner rather than later. But hey, we are all just talking. It'll go how it's supposed to.
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#11 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 10:18 AM

I agree that Weeden had an underrated rookie season (obviously & rightfully overshadowed by RGIII, Luck & RWilson).  He was up and down throughout the season though and did not end the year well.  I think he's one of those guys who is good enough to make at least 1 or 2 of his WR/TE very fantasy relevant but overall his #'s won't be great for fantasy for 2 main reasons:  1) I think the CLE Def may be pretty good this year, thus limiting the offense having to go pass crazy & 2) TRich at RB will get a lot of carries and take away passing opportunities.

3,800 yd/22 TD/16 INT seems about right to me.  I'd rather target Cutler, Tannehill, Palmer or Locker (due to rushing ability) as my back-up QB over Weeden.

#12 pikerbkb

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 10:38 AM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 11 April 2013 - 10:18 AM, said:

I agree that Weeden had an underrated rookie season (obviously & rightfully overshadowed by RGIII, Luck & RWilson).  He was up and down throughout the season though and did not end the year well.  I think he's one of those guys who is good enough to make at least 1 or 2 of his WR/TE very fantasy relevant but overall his #'s won't be great for fantasy for 2 main reasons:  1) I think the CLE Def may be pretty good this year, thus limiting the offense having to go pass crazy & 2) TRich at RB will get a lot of carries and take away passing opportunities.

3,800 yd/22 TD/16 INT seems about right to me.  I'd rather target Cutler, Tannehill, Palmer or Locker (due to rushing ability) as my back-up QB over Weeden.
Pretty much agree with everything. I was a little more optimistic with yards and TDs, but I think that TRich and the D potentially could limit him. In Weeden's favor are the fact that most teams will load the box and MAKE Weeden beat them, so the offense will need balance and TRich has to prove that he can stay healthy at this level. I don't doubt that he will, the guy is a freaking gladiator.

Edited by pikerbkb, 11 April 2013 - 10:47 AM.

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#13 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 10:44 AM

View Postpikerbkb, on 11 April 2013 - 10:38 AM, said:

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 11 April 2013 - 10:18 AM, said:

I agree that Weeden had an underrated rookie season (obviously & rightfully overshadowed by RGIII, Luck & RWilson).  He was up and down throughout the season though and did not end the year well.  I think he's one of those guys who is good enough to make at least 1 or 2 of his WR/TE very fantasy relevant but overall his #'s won't be great for fantasy for 2 main reasons:  1) I think the CLE Def may be pretty good this year, thus limiting the offense having to go pass crazy & 2) TRich at RB will get a lot of carries and take away passing opportunities.

3,800 yd/22 TD/16 INT seems about right to me.  I'd rather target Cutler, Tannehill, Palmer or Locker (due to rushing ability) as my back-up QB over Weeden.
Pretty much agree with everything. I was a little more optimistic with yards and TDs, but I think that potentially could limit him. In Weeden's favor are the fact that most teams will load the box and MAKE Weeden beat them, so the offense will need balance and TRich has to prove that he can stay healthy at this level. I don't doubt that he will, the guy is a freaking gladiator.

I like Weeden too and am not sure why Chud and Norv were initially waffling on him being their guy at QB for 2013.  There weren't any better FA options and this draft does not have that many great QB prospects.  If the CLE Def stumbles though, he definitely has the arm strength and weapons to make things happen.  I really like JGordon; he's definitely a guy I'll be targeting at WR.

#14 pikerbkb

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 10:47 AM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 11 April 2013 - 10:18 AM, said:

I agree that Weeden had an underrated rookie season (obviously & rightfully overshadowed by RGIII, Luck & RWilson).  He was up and down throughout the season though and did not end the year well.  I think he's one of those guys who is good enough to make at least 1 or 2 of his WR/TE very fantasy relevant but overall his #'s won't be great for fantasy for 2 main reasons:  1) I think the CLE Def may be pretty good this year, thus limiting the offense having to go pass crazy & 2) TRich at RB will get a lot of carries and take away passing opportunities.

3,800 yd/22 TD/16 INT seems about right to me.  I'd rather target Cutler, Tannehill, Palmer or Locker (due to rushing ability) as my back-up QB over Weeden.
Pretty much agree with everything. I was a little more optimistic with yards and TDs, but I think that potentially could limit him. In Weeden's favor are the fact that most teams will load the box and MAKE Weeden beat them, so the offense will need balance and TRich has to prove that he can stay healthy at this level. I don't doubt that he will, the guy is a freaking gladiator.

My bottom line is that someone is going to have a story next year about how they scooped up Weeden off the ww. Maybe I am smoking the Cleveland dope, but I was right about Decker, DX, Chris Givens, Bryce Brown and maybe Dujuan Harris and Weeden. Got all of them off the ww. Just got a feeling about Weeden. You guys are def. right about him being a late late pick or FA/WW. No argument there.
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#15 DocJ

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 11:32 AM

I'm also higher on Weeden than most but another thing to consider is that CLE has quietly built an improving defense over the past few seasons and this trend could continue this season meaning less garbage time stats for Weeden. I consider this season a wait and see for him but he's a QB I'm keeping an eye on along with Tannehill.
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#16 Robrain

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:37 PM

View PostDocJ, on 11 April 2013 - 11:32 AM, said:

I'm also higher on Weeden than most but another thing to consider is that CLE has quietly built an improving defense over the past few seasons and this trend could continue this season meaning less garbage time stats for Weeden. I consider this season a wait and see for him but he's a QB I'm keeping an eye on along with Tannehill.

Exactly.  The reason we liked Carson Palmer pinch-hitting during our starting QB's bye week was because of the garbage time stats he'd put up due to that pitiful OAK DEF.  Same with your Chad Henne's and your Ryan Fitzmagick's.

My ideal bye-week QB matchup last year was a competent QB with decent weapons on a terrible team, playing against NE or NO.

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#17 NYR Fan 116894

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 07:21 PM

From rotoworld:

"After studying each of Brandon Weeden's rookie-year throws, ESPN's Ron Jaworski came away "impressed" and believes Weeden "will be a rock-solid NFL starter in Norv Turner's offense.""

"Weeden's pocket presence was a question mark coming out of Oklahoma State, but Jaws observed on tape that, "For a rookie, Weeden showed uncommon poise and calm in the pocket" with "consistently solid" mechanics. Jaworski was also impressed with Weeden's "ability to sit on his back foot and drive the ball with velocity." Added Jaws, "There's no question in my mind that his throwing skill set and Turner's quarterback-friendly system will mesh effectively." Weeden has deep-sleeper QB2 appeal under QB gurus Turner and Rob Chudzinski."

Stinks that Gordon is suspended for the first two games, but apparently Jaws likes Weeden.
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#18 pikerbkb

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 07:32 PM

View PostNYR Fan 116894, on 02 July 2013 - 07:21 PM, said:

From rotoworld:

"After studying each of Brandon Weeden's rookie-year throws, ESPN's Ron Jaworski came away "impressed" and believes Weeden "will be a rock-solid NFL starter in Norv Turner's offense.""

"Weeden's pocket presence was a question mark coming out of Oklahoma State, but Jaws observed on tape that, "For a rookie, Weeden showed uncommon poise and calm in the pocket" with "consistently solid" mechanics. Jaworski was also impressed with Weeden's "ability to sit on his back foot and drive the ball with velocity." Added Jaws, "There's no question in my mind that his throwing skill set and Turner's quarterback-friendly system will mesh effectively." Weeden has deep-sleeper QB2 appeal under QB gurus Turner and Rob Chudzinski."

Stinks that Gordon is suspended for the first two games, but apparently Jaws likes Weeden.
Norv is great with QBs. I think Weeden is very similar to River's as far as mentality and the way they approach the game. They throw aggressively and will take chances. Weeden has a much stronger arm than Rivers, but Rivers has, well had terrific accuracy & timing, especially on the deep balls. Weeden will have to work on those 2 areas a bit, especially timing and not throwing late. I think the fact that they will throw out of the shotgun more is going to help Weeden tremendously.

Edited by pikerbkb, 02 July 2013 - 07:32 PM.

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#19 pepper11

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 07:36 PM

So he looks really really good

#20 pikerbkb

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:03 PM

Weeden looked REALLY GOOD. I know it is only a quarter of play and against a soft, vanilla defense, but he did exactly what he was supposed to. Made some nice throws as well.
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