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Danario Alexander 2013 Outlook


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#1 cbe_88

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 05:36 PM

What's this guy's 2013 outlook look like? It's looking like he'll be going too early for me. I'm not really on board with trusting Rivers to provide for DX so much that the wideout becomes a stud. However, he does look prototypical, and a big target for Rivers. He obviously has blow-up potential but I think he'll maintain some serious dud-proneness next year. We'll see what the new staff will do.

Oh and I hope he stays healthy...If I can get him at my flex I suppose he's an option.

#2 ToO_BaD

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 06:14 PM

Don't forget they still have Vincent Brown on their roster.
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#3 fredth3cat

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 06:58 PM

He'll dominate for six weeks and then go down for the year. Touted as a value pick in 2014.

#4 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:40 PM

As a redraft value, he's going to be hard to get as a bargain.   If you have him as a keeper or better yet, dynasty, he's gold (even understanding the injury risk, which is always real for him).   As long as he's healthy (the big IF), the skills are real, WR1 talent here.

The key factor besides health for DX (and for every Charger WR/RB/Rivers & Gates FFB-wise) - how much they address their O-line woes.  They need a LT, and at least one more interior lineman.  The draft class has them in a spot to address LT in the 1st round, and OL in the 2nd or 3rd.   They do that, with a QB/pass-friendly coach (yes Turner was pass-friendly too, but their O-line sucked, they need both to succeed), better protection combined with an aggressive game plan that McCoy will no doubt push = FFB value.

I agree he's no longer going to be a massive bargain, but the offseason steps the Bolts take to address their O-line now that we know McCoy is running the show is the key here.
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#5 rraayy3

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:08 PM

He plays a position thats deep
He's relatively unknown by most until the 2nd half of the year
The Chargers suck
He has an extensive injury history

I don't think he'll be too expensive. Won't mind him as my WR2 next year.

#6 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:05 PM

Well, I thought SD was taking a huge chance in trying to save 400k by offering the original draft-pick tender (teams only have to give up the original draft pick used to offer Alexander a FA contract, and Chargers can either match the offer, or get the pick - but since Alexander was an undrafted FA, there was no pick to give up), but no team wanted to get into a bidding war where the Bolts would match.   I thought for sure teams were going to take a 1.3M flyer (whereas the 1.7M 2nd-round tender would have chased teams away) - guess teams really worry about his knees.  Deadline's passed - and word out from SD is DX signed the tender without reservations.   Back for 2013 as Rivers' favorite target.

With DX back with the Bolts, the major X factor to his relevance - next week's draft.   The Bolts would love if Lane Johnson fell to them at #11, but may have to trade up - but getting a LT, or even one of the top 2 guards (Warmack, Cooper), it's a must - their O-line is a mess, even with the change to a zone-blocking scheme.  Not only would I hope to see the #11 pick go to a top 3 LT or top 2 guard, but they invest at least 1 more pick in Rounds 2-4 for O-line help.   That would solidify DX's outlook, since he's already the #1 look with Rivers.
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#7 Deadpool

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 01:32 PM

Will be a nice WR3.  Too risky to draft as a WR2 I'm thinking.
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#8 Ryan81

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 01:46 PM

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

Will be a nice WR3.  Too risky to draft as a WR2 I'm thinking.
Way to risky as a WR2 imo.

What's the exact number of knee surgeries he has had? And what rounds should we expect him to fall to?
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#9 petekrum

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM

Just looking at some mocks he has been going predominately in the 7th or 8th round. A pretty nice WR3.
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#10 Deadpool

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM

View PostRyan81, on 20 April 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

Will be a nice WR3.  Too risky to draft as a WR2 I'm thinking.
Way to risky as a WR2 imo.

What's the exact number of knee surgeries he has had? And what rounds should we expect him to fall to?

No way is he getting drafted before round 8.

I would consider him after then.  If someone picks him before then, good luck.

Edited by Deadpool, 20 April 2013 - 01:54 PM.

12 Team Keeper, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Cam Newton
RB: Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Bishop Sankey, Mark Ingram, LeGarrette Blount
WR: Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Kelvin Benjamin, Justin Hunter, Jordan Matthews
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Tim Wright

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, LeGarrette Blount, Andre Williams
WR: Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Terrance Williams
TE: Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Travis Kelce

#11 ILoveArt

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 01:31 AM

I was amazed when he was tagged at the original round level. Then amazed even more when nobody scooped him up. Makes no sense, but he'll be back with the chargers.

#12 Ryan81

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:35 AM

I thought he'd for sure be going before the 8th. If he's still there though, I'll gladly take him as my WR3/4.

Potential to be put on IR? Who cares if it's that late.
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#13 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 08:52 AM

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 20 April 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

Will be a nice WR3.  Too risky to draft as a WR2 I'm thinking.
Way to risky as a WR2 imo.

What's the exact number of knee surgeries he has had? And what rounds should we expect him to fall to?

No way is he getting drafted before round 8.

I would consider him after then.  If someone picks him before then, good luck.

Wasn't he easily a top 10 WR, after he became a starter, from week 10 to 17 (2nd half of the season)?  Now he's back in SD as the #1 WR with a new HC who will likely improve the offense and make DX the focal point of the passing game.  Yes, he's had a lengthy history of knee injuries but what's not to like about taking this guy in rd 6 or 7 as your #3 WR?  If healthy, he could definitely post WR1 #'s in 2013.  Even if he does get injured, if you can't overcome the loss of your 6th or 7th rd pick, then you did a poor job drafting your team.  It's a risk worth taking to me and I'd be comfortable having him as my #2 WR, assuming I draft another solid WR3.

#14 Deadpool

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 09:52 AM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 22 April 2013 - 08:52 AM, said:

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 20 April 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

Will be a nice WR3.  Too risky to draft as a WR2 I'm thinking.
Way to risky as a WR2 imo.

What's the exact number of knee surgeries he has had? And what rounds should we expect him to fall to?

No way is he getting drafted before round 8.

I would consider him after then.  If someone picks him before then, good luck.

Wasn't he easily a top 10 WR, after he became a starter, from week 10 to 17 (2nd half of the season)?  Now he's back in SD as the #1 WR with a new HC who will likely improve the offense and make DX the focal point of the passing game.  Yes, he's had a lengthy history of knee injuries but what's not to like about taking this guy in rd 6 or 7 as your #3 WR?  If healthy, he could definitely post WR1 #'s in 2013.  Even if he does get injured, if you can't overcome the loss of your 6th or 7th rd pick, then you did a poor job drafting your team.  It's a risk worth taking to me and I'd be comfortable having him as my #2 WR, assuming I draft another solid WR3.

What guarantee do you have the new coach will make DX the focal point, and improve the offense?

Malcom Floyd and a healthy Vincent Brown are back in the picture.  It's a new coach, last year is out the window.

If you're okay with drafting this guy in the 6th round, go for it.  There will probably be plenty of guys still on board I'd rather draft.
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RB: Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Bishop Sankey, Mark Ingram, LeGarrette Blount
WR: Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Kelvin Benjamin, Justin Hunter, Jordan Matthews
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Tim Wright

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, LeGarrette Blount, Andre Williams
WR: Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Terrance Williams
TE: Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Travis Kelce

#15 DocJ

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 11:05 AM

Looks like his current adp (I know, it's April, someone slap me) is mid-late 7th. I would still take him there as a WR3/flex. Any higher then that I would probably pass, he'll barely be 25 by week 1 but he has the knees of a 40 year old. Some WR going around him in that round: D.Jackson, Austin, Hilton, S. Johnson, Gordon.
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#16 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 12:01 PM

View PostDeadpool, on 22 April 2013 - 09:52 AM, said:

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 22 April 2013 - 08:52 AM, said:

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 20 April 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostDeadpool, on 20 April 2013 - 01:32 PM, said:

Will be a nice WR3.  Too risky to draft as a WR2 I'm thinking.
Way to risky as a WR2 imo.

What's the exact number of knee surgeries he has had? And what rounds should we expect him to fall to?

No way is he getting drafted before round 8.

I would consider him after then.  If someone picks him before then, good luck.

Wasn't he easily a top 10 WR, after he became a starter, from week 10 to 17 (2nd half of the season)?  Now he's back in SD as the #1 WR with a new HC who will likely improve the offense and make DX the focal point of the passing game.  Yes, he's had a lengthy history of knee injuries but what's not to like about taking this guy in rd 6 or 7 as your #3 WR?  If healthy, he could definitely post WR1 #'s in 2013.  Even if he does get injured, if you can't overcome the loss of your 6th or 7th rd pick, then you did a poor job drafting your team.  It's a risk worth taking to me and I'd be comfortable having him as my #2 WR, assuming I draft another solid WR3.

What guarantee do you have the new coach will make DX the focal point, and improve the offense?

Malcom Floyd and a healthy Vincent Brown are back in the picture.  It's a new coach, last year is out the window.

If you're okay with drafting this guy in the 6th round, go for it.  There will probably be plenty of guys still on board I'd rather draft.

I can't guarantee anything obviously - just trying to make educated guesses based on what I saw on the field last season and what I'm reading this off season (from CBS Sports):

http://fantasynews.c...nario-alexander

Coach sees Rivers-Danario connection

News: New Chargers coach Mike McCoy noticed the chemistry developed between receiver Danario Alexander and quarterback Philip Rivers. Alexander, who came to minicamp on a waiver agreement since he's a restricted free agent, came out of nowhere last season and helped salvage some of the Chargers offense with seven touchdowns in 10 games whilst averaging over 17 yards per catch. "I think he and Philip have a great working relationship on the football field," McCoy said. "When you see some of the plays (Thursday) throughout practice, you know they’re on the same page on a lot of things. It is new terminology -- don’t get me wrong -- but Philip knows the way he’s going to run certain routes, so they had a great three days together." Analysis: McCoy's acknowledgement of Alexander's effort should point to the receiver remaining a significant part in the Chargers offense. They certainly need him. We suspect the Chargers will lean toward a pass-happy approach and that would favor Alexander. He's got a track record of serious knee issues (five surgeries) but obviously has upside after catching 37 passes for a ridiculous 658 yards (17.8 yards per catch) and seven touchdowns including two at Pittsburgh in an improbable upset victory. With the Chargers, Alexander is worth drafting as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy WR with a mid-round pick -- and some pretty strong upside.

I'm not worried about Malcolm Floyd at all and it would be a positive if VBrown ends up being the SD WR2.  The bottom line is that DX produced as a top 10 WR when he was elevated to starter over SD's final 8 games last season.  He's one of those guys that I thought would be over-ranked going into 2013 but it appears to me that he's being underrated at this point.  I expect his ADP to rise steadily over the summer leading up the late August drafts.

#17 cbe_88

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 01:57 PM

Nothing to complain about when looking at him individually. He's got the size and talent, just the injury concerns. Really it's his situation that makes me gunshy. His QB has sucked pretty bad for two years now, and with that horrid o-line targets aren't guaranteed. We'll see what the new staff does, but it's very possible that this is an offense, yet again, that can flop any given week handing fantasy points to no one.

So again, blow-up potential? sure. But no floor to rely on, he could fall off the stat sheets any given week. I agree with other posters that he's worth a look as a WR3 but nothing more.

#18 Deadpool

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 02:09 PM

View PostDocJ, on 22 April 2013 - 11:05 AM, said:

Looks like his current adp (I know, it's April, someone slap me) is mid-late 7th. I would still take him there as a WR3/flex. Any higher then that I would probably pass, he'll barely be 25 by week 1 but he has the knees of a 40 year old. Some WR going around him in that round: D.Jackson, Austin, Hilton, S. Johnson, Gordon.

TBH I would rather draft each one of those guys than DX.  Hilton and Gordon have the highest upside of that crew.
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QB: Cam Newton
RB: Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Bishop Sankey, Mark Ingram, LeGarrette Blount
WR: Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Kelvin Benjamin, Justin Hunter, Jordan Matthews
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Tim Wright

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, LeGarrette Blount, Andre Williams
WR: Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Terrance Williams
TE: Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Travis Kelce

#19 DocJ

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 02:14 PM

View PostDeadpool, on 22 April 2013 - 02:09 PM, said:

View PostDocJ, on 22 April 2013 - 11:05 AM, said:

Looks like his current adp (I know, it's April, someone slap me) is mid-late 7th. I would still take him there as a WR3/flex. Any higher then that I would probably pass, he'll barely be 25 by week 1 but he has the knees of a 40 year old. Some WR going around him in that round: D.Jackson, Austin, Hilton, S. Johnson, Gordon.

TBH I would rather draft each one of those guys than DX.  Hilton and Gordon have the highest upside of that crew.

I tend to agree. Even DJax if that new PHI offense looks decent in pre-season.
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***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***

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RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Danny Woodhead (6.09)
WR1: Calvin Johnson (1.06)
WR2: Julio Jones (2.09)
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Lamar Miller
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: CLE DST (15.06)
K: Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)

Bench: Golden Tate (7.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Alex Smith

#20 bdams19

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 12:06 PM

View Postfredth3cat, on 23 January 2013 - 06:58 PM, said:

He'll dominate for six weeks and then go down for the year. Touted as a value pick in 2014.

View Postzpahvgjp, on 23 April 2013 - 10:57 PM, said:

He'll dominate for six weeks and then go down for the year.Posted Image

Thanks for the the tip