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Andrew Bailey 2013 OutlookIt's 4/20...we must have been high not to have a thread on him by now


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#1 Richard Kimble

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 09:24 PM

Seriously, he's already stepped in as the closer for Boston a week ago! After blowing his first opportunity on April 15th, a game the Sox won in the bottom of the 9th, he's nailed down 3 straight saves since. He's a little rocky here or there but in general, a high strikeout, efficient with his pitch count and a decent amount of upside with a career ERA of 2.49 and 188 Ks in 189 innings. He hasn't reached 50 innings since his breakout rookie campaign of 2009, in which he threw 83 innings. That remarkably high number for his first season makes me believe the A's leaned on him too hard, and that was the prevalent line of thought when he was dealt to Boston in the offseason of '11. Lo and behold, he was injured last year and had TJ surgery, so what's our expectation as the season wears on?
Setting aside whether or not he can maintain the job as closer-Hanrahan's hurt and having setbacks, but he is a groundball pitcher who was brought in over the offseason, so he certainly can re-claim the job if healthy, what's the right range of projections for Bailey? TJ surgery is basically 100% successful nowadays, so should we be not-so-worried?
It seems the Red Sox won't push him above 70 innings, and that's only if they're in it to the finish-65 is a more likely max, and if you figure on some ERA regression in the AL East and Fenway, he'd still likely have a sub 3.00 ERA at worst. 15 saves seem like a given at this point, and while 20-25 is attainable, 30 would seem to be a bit much at this point. I'd suggest 24 saves, 16 holds, which would be very valuable in many formats.
How many of his owners were also Hanrahan owners who did the right thing and 'cuffed 'em together, versus those who were able to grab him off the wire? Either way, he's a must start, must hold guy for the foreseeable future.

Edited by Richard Kimble, 20 April 2013 - 09:30 PM.


#2 Reverse Cowgill

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 04:15 AM

I snagged him off the waiver wire right after his BS/W.  Needless to say Ive been happy as a clam since
12 Team Mixed League
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#3 rraayy3

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 07:27 AM

Picked him up for holds.

I've pretty much loved him since day 1 ... and I think he keeps the closer job all year.

I have not heard one report endorsing Hanrahan as the closer when he returns. I think its Bailey's job to lose.

#4 Richard Kimble

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:14 AM

Can't say I'm in agreement that he's got the job for good, it's a long season, and I think Boston is going to be careful with him at times. There's no way he's going to pitch both ends of today's double-header, for example. That might not be much of a limitation, but I don't believe we've seen the last of Hanrahan in the 9th. What I want to re-emphasize, however, is that he's got the best shot of any reliever for 15 saves/15 holds, which in saves/holds leagues would put him into the stratosphere. If he's still sitting out there, go get him. If I were in a saves/holds league, I'd seriously consider trading away any closer other than Chapman and Kimbrel to get him.
Also, as I mentioned, he should have been handcuffed to Hanrahan. This is proof of the functionality of the strategy-so, if Hanrahan was dropped and you have Bailey and can afford to DL/bench Hanrahan, do it! Don't be content to hope he's got the job for good. Along similar lines, owners of JJ Putz should have David Hernandez; Huston Street/Gregerson; Brandon League/Kenley Jansen; Chris Perez/Pestano; Rivera/Robertson, etc.

Edited by Richard Kimble, 21 April 2013 - 10:17 AM.


#5 PPolanco

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:16 AM

everyone seems to think he has the job for good.

while I won't dispute the Red Sox owe nothing to Hanrahan, let's not pretend that Bailey has been lights out as closer. He's given up multiple runs. I don't think we know for sure until Hanrahan returns
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#6 Richard Kimble

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:27 AM

Agreed; the aforementioned 8th/9th innings duos all illustrate an important point, which is that a growing number of teams use their best reliever in the 8th inning (I think you can argue Robertson is better than Rivera at this point, and only Street is better than Gregerson of the tandems I mentioned) and if you believe Bailey's better, why not use him in the 8th? So I could easily see things going back to the way they were in the beginning of the season. The question is, will Hanrahan hold the job all year-most people don't believe so. I'm thinking Bailey will cede way to Hanrahan at some point, and regain the job by August. Which is why I can easily see 24 saves/16 holds, hence his value in saves/holds leagues is unparalled, for the moment. Meanwhile, any of the 8th inning setup guys offer comparable upside for the same reason we're discussing Bailey here.

#7 Richard Kimble

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:24 PM

Well, I'm officially sold. The gig is his, if he hadn't earned it before now, his "Daisy Fuentes" appearance (save, struck out the side) in a 6-5 win over Toronto sealed the deal. Of course it's a fluid situation, but Bailey has absolutely grabbed hold of the beast, going 1-0, 2.57 with 5 saves in 7 appearances since he was handed the job on April 15th with a 13/1 k /bb rate in that span. He's on fire, and other than the giddy yelling you hear from his new owners in fantasyland, you can hear the collective groan of Hanrahan's owners. Those who have been perhaps forced to pick up a Jose Valverde-my heart goes out to you.
    But seriously, this again underlines the necessity of handcuffing your in-house candidates to closers, and in retrospect, we should have realized Hanrahan was the likeliest to lose his gig early in the year (ok Marmol/Axford, most people avoided them like the plague).
    Now that Bailey is nailing down saves like Burt Reynolds did movie starlets of the '70s, the concern returns to usage. He's pitched 6 of the last 8 days, and you have to be worried about his injury history and the chance that something goes wrong. To that end, Koji Uehara is the logical next-in-line, and may get a save opportunity sooner than later. Hanrahan will likely reclaim the 8th inning set up role when he returns, but in the meantime, I'd go ahead and add Uehara if I had Bailey. In the meantime, enjoy the ride!

#8 rraayy3

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:35 PM

Can any person that isnt a Hanrahan owner come up with a reason he's not closing rest of the season?

#9 9703

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:36 PM

View Postrraayy3, on 24 April 2013 - 09:35 PM, said:

Can any person that isnt a Hanrahan owner come up with a reason he's not closing rest of the season?

Salary?

But really, no.

#10 Richard Kimble

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:32 PM

Everything is good at the moment in Red Sox nation, for the first time since they started going downhill at the end of Francona's tenure. Ortiz is giving inspirational expletive-laced speeches and avoiding FCC fines, Alfredo Aceves has a one-way ticket out of town, and the Sox even get Lackey back in a week or two, for maybe a week or two. Bailey's pitching has been no small part of this stretch, so although I though that Hanrahan's status/salary might compel Farrell to try him out as closer again, I do not see any chance of Bailey relinquishing the job. The innings are the thing to watch-hopefully the Red Sox will limit him to around 65, 70 tops. He can close for some time, if they handle him properly.

#11 Richard Kimble

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 01:47 AM

Should I PM posty to ask him to add this thread to the index of player threads? He's a busy guy I don't want to bother him....

#12 smeeze

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 06:59 AM

Is it safe to drop Hanrahan at this point?  I've been riding the Bailey train but don't have any DL spots for Hanrahan.
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#13 grimsfield

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:04 AM

View Postsmeeze, on 25 April 2013 - 06:59 AM, said:

Is it safe to drop Hanrahan at this point?  I've been riding the Bailey train but don't have any DL spots for Hanrahan.

I'd say theres a 65% chance bailey sticks as closer at this point. Managers are being pretty stupid this year.
"The base paths belonged to me, the runner. The rules gave me the right. I always went into a bag full speed, feet first. I had sharp spikes on my shoes. If the baseman stood where he had no business to be and got hurt, that was his fault."

#14 GJDHouse

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:21 AM

80% of all stats are made up on the spot.

#15 rraayy3

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:25 AM

I'm 79.4% sure that I can't say with 100% certainty if Hanrahan is droppable.

Also, 6.

#16 PPolanco

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:37 AM

don't drop hanrahan until we know for sure. He should be back in under 2 weeks and while I'm sure it's frustrating to own him at this time and waste a roster spot, the simple fact is that we have no idea who will close once he comes back. All we've received is speculation from fantasy owners; Boston has been very tight-lipped about it
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#17 jr11890

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:39 AM

This guy is amazing right now. He looks dominant
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Positions:C 1B 2B 3B SS OF OF OF SP SP SP SP SP BN BN BN BN BN DL DL DL DL
Categories:R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB K'S AVG OBP IP W L CG SHO HR K'S ERA WHIP QS
C-Molina 1B-Freeman 2B-Carpenter 3B-Beltre SS-Boaegerts OF-Puig,Craig,Calhoun
SP-Kershaw,Cueto,Ventura,Burnett,Arietta,Odorizzi,Smyly
BN-Peralta,Crisp
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#18 Fantasy Fiend

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 10:48 AM

Yeah I just traded for him he better hold the role. Bailey is the closer for the near future, even after Hanrahan comes back.

Edited by Fantasy Fiend, 25 April 2013 - 10:51 AM.


#19 Richard Kimble

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 04:38 PM

Buster Olney seemed to think Hanrahan stands a good chance to get the gig back on today's Fantasy Focus podcast...wonder if he's privy to anything, or just knows the thinking of the Red Sox front office.
Meanwhile, we haven't heard any word, really, about Hanrahan's return, so of course you roll him out there-but, again, I'm not convinced that I'd drop Hanrahan.
Of course if Mujica is somehow still lying around go for it, but I'm not going after Papa Burrito Grande. To be clear, even with his declining K rate, Hanrahan is a groundball pitcher, I'd much rather have him as a contingency than a guy who has 1 declining pitch.
Bailey is making all of this a moot point, at the moment, but I am worried about overuse. We'll have to see if they're willing to back off him, but I bet we'll see them try to get a 4 out save from him sooner than later. That's my biggest concern at this point.

#20 trojans888

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 05:12 PM

“I think the fans and the media will be fascinated by this question," Lucchino said.