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Justin Blackmon 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 dudeondacouch

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 03:18 PM

ESPN reporting that Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the upcoming 2013 season...

2014: 12-Team, Full PPR, #1 Pick

QB ---- Russell Wilson, Tom Brady
RB ---- Jamaal Charles, Andre Ellington, Andre Williams, Pierre Thomas, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Knile Davis
WR---- Antonio Brown, Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon

TE----- Julius Thomas
K ------ Cody Parkey
DEF--- Indianapolis Colts


#2 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 03:24 PM

PEDs or Weed?
"Give me a break, I'm a product of divorce!"

*********

#3 dudeondacouch

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 03:46 PM

This just in: violated the league's substance abuse policy.

:facepalm:

2014: 12-Team, Full PPR, #1 Pick

QB ---- Russell Wilson, Tom Brady
RB ---- Jamaal Charles, Andre Ellington, Andre Williams, Pierre Thomas, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Knile Davis
WR---- Antonio Brown, Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon

TE----- Julius Thomas
K ------ Cody Parkey
DEF--- Indianapolis Colts


#4 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 04:02 PM

If he got 4 games, that means this is his 3rd violation

#5 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 04:58 PM

He could end up being a steal if people put too much emphasis on this suspension. I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

#6 Proteus

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 06:18 PM

Oh. I thought this was just the other shoe dropping from a Diehlesk dui.

Value or no value he's got a problem.

Not sure I'd bother especially with Jorts on the roster and continued question marks all over the offense.

Edited by Proteus, 30 April 2013 - 06:23 PM.

QB: Ryan Leaf
RB: Lawrence Phillips
RB: Ki-Jana Carter
WR: Charles Rogers
WR: Desmond Howard
TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
K: Ray Finkle(Einhorn)
D: Minnie

BN: Andre Ware/Jared Cook/Tony Mandarich/Curtis Enis/Travis Henry/Brian Bosworth/CJ Spiller/Trent Richardson

facebook.com/WhyYouBeasting

#7 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 07:02 PM

I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.


What exactly have they done to lead you to believe that Gabbert is something other than "inept"?

#8 Vupacalypse

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 07:24 PM

I'm buying low in dynasty. Should come cheap with a lot of upside.

#9 nickalero99

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 08:23 PM

Unless someone has fears that he's going to fail more drug tests, I look at it the same way as I looked at having another OSU Cowboy stand-out that had off the field problems and a world of talent on the field. I didn't sell Dez low and I surely wouldn't sell Blackmon low if I had him. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we're viewing this guy as a top 15 WR at some point in the next year or two.

#10 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:53 PM


I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.


What exactly have they done to lead you to believe that Gabbert is something other than "inept"?


While I can't comprehend why Gabbert is getting another opportunity, he certainly isn't immune to the inevitable benching. Hopefully, when Blackmon returns from suspension Gabbert will have one foot on the bench already (the latest talk from Jags staff actually indicated that he and Henne are on equal footing going into camp, so his starting job isn't official yet).

In the final 7 games of 2012, with Henne starting, Blackmon averaged about 12 standard points and just over 17 PPR points, including and explosive 236 yard performance versus Houston in Week 11. I've yet to lay eyes upon the WR who could put up big numbers with Gabbert, but what Blackmon did with a mediocre QB like Henne is impressive and encouraging.

Blackmon's re-draft value is limited due to Gabbert and the suspension, but if you can steal him on draft day, he could potentially be a nice contributor in the second half of the season. Taking a gamble on a guy with his ability could result in a huge payoff.

#11 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:58 PM

Was looking at the Undrafted Rookie Free Agent signings, if any of you Dynasty Drafters want a flier QB, Jacksonville signed Jordan Rodgers from Vanderbilt, Aaron's baby brother. He's not nearly as talented as Aaron, but he did start in the SEC for a year and a half, which is saying something. Beginning midseason 2011 when he settled in as the starter, he's played 17 games and averaged 217 ypg, 8.3 ypa, 21 td, 11 int with another 5 rush td and 21 ypg (which includes Sacks in college).

He's not overwhelmingly good on paper, but you have to realize he played for the absolute worst team in easily the toughest conference in college football and still led Vandy to a 9-4 record, 5-3 in the SEC (that's amazing to me), and 7 straight wins to finish the season (including a Bowl victory). They got waxed at Georgia, but were within 14 against a good Florida squad, 10 at Northwestern and 4 vs a tough South Carolina team (before Lattimore got hurt) -- the Rodgers boys can win football games.

Not guaranteeing a return on your investment, but if you have a deep dynasty league, I'd give him give him a red shirt year to see what's gonna on down in Florida in 2014.

#12 ILoveArt

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Posted 02 May 2013 - 12:27 AM

I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.

#13 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 02 May 2013 - 01:42 PM


I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.


Please read my previous post. Blackmon was actually pretty darn productive with Henne under center last season.

#14 DocJ

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Posted 02 May 2013 - 02:43 PM



I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.


Please read my previous post. Blackmon was actually pretty darn productive with Henne under center last season.


Yes week 11 on he was pretty solid with the exception of one game.
That was even with Shorts having some big games in there as well.
After this screw up he'll be going after round 10 for sure. I'd strongly consider taking him there and stashing.
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2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#15 RMJ_12

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 08:02 PM


I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.

blaine gabbert is bashed by the media including rotoworld because he plays for the least marketable team in the nfl, a team that went 2-14. he doesnt deserve all of the blame, he was a 22 year old qb (youngest starter in the nfl) that was running for his life all season. interesting stat if you havent seen it yet: gabbert was 13th highest rated passer when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw the ball. luke joeckel should help the line quite a bit. this isnt me saying to draft blaine gabbert or saying that he'll even be a top 13 qb this season but with better protection and more experience gabbert should play well enough for his wr's to be very productive in fantasy football so i personally wouldnt worry about blackmon as long as he stays out of jail

#16 RMJ_12

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 08:05 PM

im starting to think his suspension will help me steal him as a 4th wr because nobody will want a jaguars wr that is suspended for 4 games. when he does play he will be very productive in his 2nd season as long as he stays out of trouble

#17 RMJ_12

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 11:23 AM

this is ESPN's assesment -

"We questioned Blackmon as the No. 5 overall pick last year, and nothing we saw in '12 makes us change that assessment. He did improve, especially when Chad Henne took over under center. But anyone expecting Blackmon to be a burner will be disappointed. He's good after the catch, but he was third in the NFL with 10 drops and more than a quarter of his yards came in one game. Worst of all, he'll be suspended for the first four games of '13 for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. Cecil Shorts is the Jags WR to own this year."

ridiculous considering they have him ranked after Golden Tate, Santonio Holmes, Brian Harline, & Rueben Randle. this guy should be a huge steal if he can stay out of trouble during the season. his production even in 12 games should outproduce his ADP.
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#18 FFCollusion

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 09:33 PM

From the derailed MJD thread...

I think it's helpful to have a way for thinking about how far down people should drop in your rankings if they are missing games.

From weeks 12 to 17, Blackmon averaged 9 ppg in standard ESPN scoring even with Henne under center. That's fine, but it's Lance Moore territory, not WR1 territory.


It's an interesting approach, but I think it's best reversed to estimate true value.
Whereas you're comparing rounds dropped, for games missed, the question I would propose to you is, in what round would you "value" (not draft, but realistically agree it makes sense) Justin Blackmon if he was not missing any games? I'm trying to answer this myself right now, and I think I'd place him around... the 7th to 8th round. Based on ADPs right now, this makes him a WR4 and places him with names like... DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, T.Y. Hilton.

All of which I think actually fall into that... "who knows what they do this year, but they all have talent and the potential to be a solid WR2" and I think that's right where I put Blackmon.

ADP has Blackmon currently going 10.09, so 10-11th round. I think a 4 Game suspension and a 3 round drop makes sense. In all reality, he's no different than any other lotto ticket, because it's going to take 2-4 weeks to even find one, yet alone prove they can repeat the game/week that made them worth the pickup.

On the 2nd part... if you want to remove outliers, that's fine, but you don't get to only remove his high, and leave his low. If we exclude his highest game, we also need to exclude his lowest, and in doing so, his standard scoring average per game becomes exactly 11.0. This ranks him 13th in standard scoring. Keep in mind though, that 3 of the names ahead of him are Crabtree, Welker and Decker. 3 of which I don't think we can realistically expect to remain WR1 PPG in 2013.

Clearly more valuable in PPR leagues, but still a solid roster stash for any league. His Red Zone usage is probably the most promising stat, but with MoJo back in 2013 it means stacked boxes every play, every game, every week. Upgraded O-Line, 2nd year WR, and no where to go but up.

I think he's a smart stash in the 9-10th round, as a wait and see type of guy. If you need the Roster spot before his 4 weeks are up, then I have no issues dumping him. Drafting him, doesn't mean you're married to him.
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I do it for the likes...

#19 Proteus

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 11:22 PM

Somewhere Justin Blackmon is drunk on Patron and L-ing his AO at all of you. Probably driving too.
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QB: Ryan Leaf
RB: Lawrence Phillips
RB: Ki-Jana Carter
WR: Charles Rogers
WR: Desmond Howard
TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
K: Ray Finkle(Einhorn)
D: Minnie

BN: Andre Ware/Jared Cook/Tony Mandarich/Curtis Enis/Travis Henry/Brian Bosworth/CJ Spiller/Trent Richardson

facebook.com/WhyYouBeasting

#20 green

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:39 AM

I still think the way I initially did it is more accurate. Since the question is, in fact, how far should I drop Blackmon in my rankings due to his injury? But anyways, it's going to be subjective for each person, so maybe you would only drop DJax 2 or 3 rounds too.

Moreover I disagree that you should drop his low as well as his high in that set of games. One is clearly an outlier, as it's the 38th best game in NFL history. The other isn't even his worst game of the season, not exactly an outlier.

I also don't like dropping games in the middle of series, not to mention you've already dropping all his bad games from before his monster game. So doing it your way, you end up dropping 9 bad games, and only 2 good games (one of which was admittedly a very very good game). I'm sure he'd rank a lot lower than 13th if you did the same for every other WR - comparing just everybody's 7 best games, with the best and 7th best games then excluded. I get that there was a change for why you think it was fair to exclude so many of his bad games, but a lot of other players had changes too, so you need to be consistent in your methodology if you want to make comparisons across players (e.g. say he's 13th best).

Anyways, my simple thought was this: If you are somebody was wowed by his monster game last year, and then put him in their lineup for all of his remaining games because of it - how many points per game would they have gotten in standard ESPN scoring? 9 points per game is the correct answer to that question. Maybe you're asking a different question, which is fine, but that's the question I'm interested in myself.

I agree that I would probably stash him in PPR, I don't play PPR and didn't realize how good he was in it until I saw your numbers, but in normal I'm still not swayed.




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