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Brandon Marshall 2013 Season OutlookTop 5 WR


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#1 Ryan81

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:35 PM

It seems like this guy is being undervalued a bit. And by that, I mean I often see him being ignored in the discussion for #2 WR behind Megatron.

The guy has great chemistry with Jay Cutler. He's a target monster and is good for 100 receptions each year. I can see Chicago's defense declining this year meaning more playing from behind. I've also heard the argument of Jeffery and Bennett taking away targets, points, etc. But I just don't see it effecting the Cutler/Marshall relationship much. He loves to sling it Marshall's way.

He set career highs in each of these categories last year.
192 targets for 118 receptions, 1508 yards, and 11 TDs.

I'm probably going to have him as my #2 WR, but depending on his ADP, may try to snag Green then Marshall in the early 2nd if I feel like he will still be there.
"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

#2 Proteus

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:40 PM

The more I read--and guys here deserve much credit--the more I think the top tiers are beginning to stratify ever more specifically.

Alien Tier
MEGALON

Human Tier I
Green
Marshall

Human Tier II
Dez
Julio
QB: Ryan Leaf
RB: Lawrence Phillips
RB: Ki-Jana Carter
WR: Charles Rogers
WR: Desmond Howard
TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
K: Ray Finkle(Einhorn)
D: Minnie

BN: Andre Ware/Jared Cook/Tony Mandarich/Curtis Enis/Travis Henry/Brian Bosworth/CJ Spiller/Trent Richardson

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#3 DocJ

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 11:01 PM

View PostRyan81, on 06 May 2013 - 10:35 PM, said:

I'm probably going to have him as my #2 WR, but depending on his ADP, may try to snag Green then Marshall in the early 2nd if I feel like he will still be there.

I'm with you on this in a ppr, get ready to be flamed though by all the RB worshipers.
Nevermind that you'd still be able to draft Wilson, Sproles, Miller, Ball, Ivory, Lacy, etc, etc.

Edited by DocJ, 06 May 2013 - 11:02 PM.

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#4 theSPANKER

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 01:45 PM

View PostDocJ, on 06 May 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 06 May 2013 - 10:35 PM, said:

I'm probably going to have him as my #2 WR, but depending on his ADP, may try to snag Green then Marshall in the early 2nd if I feel like he will still be there.

I'm with you on this in a ppr, get ready to be flamed though by all the RB worshipers.
Nevermind that you'd still be able to draft Wilson, Sproles, Miller, Ball, Ivory, Lacy, etc, etc.

I don't know man.  In my PPR league there is no way in hell Sproles would be available back to you in the third round.  I know each draft is different but that's a long time to wait and there's a good chance Wilson and Miller may be gone as well which will FORCE you to probably take a Ball/Bell RB combo in the 5/6 round there won't be much left on the board at that point.  So now you're forced to take 2Rbs you may not wanted to take at that point.

There is no guarantee Ball would even be there as every draft is different and in some leagues RB position will be hoarded early and often,,,,,just saying.

I still believe WR is so deep I'll take my chances on taking at least one RB/WR in the first couple rounds if I have the 10-12 spots and may lean still on taking 2 RBs only because as I stated WR is the deepest position besides QB to be had.
12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Stafford
RBs - Andre Brown, Jennings, Vereen, Sproles, Ray Rice
WRs - Dez Bryant, Desean Jackson, Allen, Bokin
TE - Reed, Walker
K - Vinatieri
Panthers, Texans D

#5 DocJ

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:03 PM

You're probably right about Sproles not lasting past the mid-3rd.

I can't tell you how many leagues I've won or almost won taking 2 RB considered RB2 and 2-3 RB considered RB3, why? because almost always one of those RB2 turns into an RB1 and one (or more) of those RB3 turns into a solid RB2.
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#6 theSPANKER

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:15 PM

View PostDocJ, on 07 May 2013 - 02:03 PM, said:

You're probably right about Sproles not lasting past the mid-3rd.

I can't tell you how many leagues I've won or almost won taking 2 RB considered RB2 and 2-3 RB considered RB3, why? because almost always one of those RB2 turns into an RB1 and one (or more) of those RB3 turns into a solid RB2.

Not to argue your point but the same can be said of the WR position as well.  How many fall out of the top 10 each year?

Not saying anything is wrong on what you're advocating, just that you're probably much more astute player at that type of drafting style than I am.

I agree with you there are more ways than one in ways to win your league but in my opinion, I'll play the drafting game based on supply and demand via position and integrate that into value for each round.
12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Stafford
RBs - Andre Brown, Jennings, Vereen, Sproles, Ray Rice
WRs - Dez Bryant, Desean Jackson, Allen, Bokin
TE - Reed, Walker
K - Vinatieri
Panthers, Texans D

#7 theSPANKER

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:18 PM

View PosttheSPANKER, on 07 May 2013 - 01:45 PM, said:

View PostDocJ, on 06 May 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 06 May 2013 - 10:35 PM, said:

I'm probably going to have him as my #2 WR, but depending on his ADP, may try to snag Green then Marshall in the early 2nd if I feel like he will still be there.

I'm with you on this in a ppr, get ready to be flamed though by all the RB worshipers.
Nevermind that you'd still be able to draft Wilson, Sproles, Miller, Ball, Ivory, Lacy, etc, etc.

I don't know man.  In my PPR league there is no way in hell Sproles would be available back to you in the third round.  I know each draft is different but that's a long time to wait and there's a good chance Wilson and Miller may be gone as well which will FORCE you to probably take a Ball/Bell RB combo because by the 5/6 round there won't be much left on the board at that point.  So now you're forced to take 2Rbs you may not wanted to take at that point.

There is no guarantee Ball would even be there as every draft is different and in some leagues RB position will be hoarded early and often,,,,,just saying.

I still believe WR is so deep I'll take my chances on taking at least one RB/WR in the first couple rounds if I have the 10-12 spots and may lean still on taking 2 RBs only because as I stated WR is the deepest position besides QB to be had.

12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Stafford
RBs - Andre Brown, Jennings, Vereen, Sproles, Ray Rice
WRs - Dez Bryant, Desean Jackson, Allen, Bokin
TE - Reed, Walker
K - Vinatieri
Panthers, Texans D

#8 DocJ

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:31 PM

View PosttheSPANKER, on 07 May 2013 - 02:15 PM, said:


Not to argue your point but the same can be said of the WR position as well.  How many fall out of the top 10 each year?

Not saying anything is wrong on what you're advocating, just that you're probably much more astute player at that type of drafting style than I am.

I agree with you there are more ways than one in ways to win your league but in my opinion, I'll play the drafting game based on supply and demand via position and integrate that into value for each round.

This is true but by that logic then, it's much more likely for a RB to ascend to that status than a WR. When you miss out on the elite RB there many fewer options left to possibly outperform their ADP, while the number of options at WR to outperform is probably double or triple.
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#9 theSPANKER

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 06:54 PM

View PostDocJ, on 07 May 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

View PosttheSPANKER, on 07 May 2013 - 02:15 PM, said:

Not to argue your point but the same can be said of the WR position as well.  How many fall out of the top 10 each year?

Not saying anything is wrong on what you're advocating, just that you're probably much more astute player at that type of drafting style than I am.

I agree with you there are more ways than one in ways to win your league but in my opinion, I'll play the drafting game based on supply and demand via position and integrate that into value for each round.

This is true but by that logic then, it's much more likely for a RB to ascend to that status than a WR. When you miss out on the elite RB there many fewer options left to possibly outperform their ADP, while the number of options at WR to outperform is probably double or triple.

RBs are more injury prone and therefore are higher risk.  However WRs get injured too (less often) but alot of them depend on their QB who could get injuried and affect their season peformance as well.

Who's to say you are missing out on the elite?

I don't know what type of league you play in but RBs (Forte, Bush, Sjax, Sproles etc) could put up RB1 numbers and you can almost essentailly lock them on to your team all the way from the end of the 1st throughout the 2nd round.

League scoring greatly differs from league to league but I'm talking about PPR here.  Any of these guys have the potential to match any of the guys after AP and Foster IMHO.
12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Stafford
RBs - Andre Brown, Jennings, Vereen, Sproles, Ray Rice
WRs - Dez Bryant, Desean Jackson, Allen, Bokin
TE - Reed, Walker
K - Vinatieri
Panthers, Texans D

#10 Ryan81

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 08:17 PM

View PostDocJ, on 06 May 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 06 May 2013 - 10:35 PM, said:

I'm probably going to have him as my #2 WR, but depending on his ADP, may try to snag Green then Marshall in the early 2nd if I feel like he will still be there.

I'm with you on this in a ppr, get ready to be flamed though by all the RB worshipers.
Nevermind that you'd still be able to draft Wilson, Sproles, Miller, Ball, Ivory, Lacy, etc, etc.
It really is nice. Having the combination of Megatron and Marshall last year was pretty insane. Especially the 2nd half of the season after Megatron was putting up 150 yards every game.

I think Marshall could have had even better numbers last year if it weren't for the lucky Chicago defensive TDs. Not to derail the thread, but a lot them were luck. Especially when their LBs intercepted the ball and turned into Adrian Peterson.


I think I would rather have a late pick and end up with Green, Marshall and take a pair of RBs like Miller and Ball.
"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

#11 Robrain

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 10:02 PM

View PostRyan81, on 07 May 2013 - 08:17 PM, said:

View PostDocJ, on 06 May 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

View PostRyan81, on 06 May 2013 - 10:35 PM, said:

I'm probably going to have him as my #2 WR, but depending on his ADP, may try to snag Green then Marshall in the early 2nd if I feel like he will still be there.

I'm with you on this in a ppr, get ready to be flamed though by all the RB worshipers.
Nevermind that you'd still be able to draft Wilson, Sproles, Miller, Ball, Ivory, Lacy, etc, etc.
It really is nice. Having the combination of Megatron and Marshall last year was pretty insane. Especially the 2nd half of the season after Megatron was putting up 150 yards every game.

I think Marshall could have had even better numbers last year if it weren't for the lucky Chicago defensive TDs. Not to derail the thread, but a lot them were luck. Especially when their LBs intercepted the ball and turned into Adrian Peterson.


I think I would rather have a late pick and end up with Green, Marshall and take a pair of RBs like Miller and Ball.

As a multi-league Marshall owner, those DEF TDs consistently pissed me off.

Edited by Robrain, 07 May 2013 - 10:02 PM.

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#12 crusoe

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 11:10 PM

View PostProteus, on 06 May 2013 - 10:40 PM, said:

The more I read--and guys here deserve much credit--the more I think the top tiers are beginning to stratify ever more specifically.

Alien Tier
MEGALON

Human Tier I
Green
Marshall


Not quite sure how you can group calvin in the first tier without Marshall.  We all know about Calvin's 2000 yard season and that obviously he paced the position in ff points last season.  what people don't realize is that one WR was only 4 points behind him.  And that receiver was Marshall.  4 points doesn't seem like a difference between tiers to me.

The OP is correct.  Marshall is being undervalued at this stage of the game.

#13 Robrain

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 11:22 PM

View Postcrusoe, on 09 May 2013 - 11:10 PM, said:

View PostProteus, on 06 May 2013 - 10:40 PM, said:

The more I read--and guys here deserve much credit--the more I think the top tiers are beginning to stratify ever more specifically.

Alien Tier
MEGALON

Human Tier I
Green
Marshall


Not quite sure how you can group calvin in the first tier without Marshall.  We all know about Calvin's 2000 yard season and that obviously he paced the position in ff points last season.  what people don't realize is that one WR was only 4 points behind him.  And that receiver was Marshall.  4 points doesn't seem like a difference between tiers to me.

The OP is correct.  Marshall is being undervalued at this stage of the game.

Calvin was suffering from the Madden Curse and had a crazy fluky first half of the season as far as TD's go.  Any normal season, he puts up double digit TDs which makes his fantasy total far better than even Marshall's.

Also, I should note that I'm honestly a little bit worried about Marshall's TD ceiling being lowered slightly due to the addition of TE Martellus Bennett (he's better than many people think, and I believe he could have a career year in 2013), as well as if Alshon Jeffery stays healthy the entire season and is starting opposite Marshall.

Marshall could start looking a little more boom-or-bust like Vincent Jackson did in SD, when he had to contend for red-zone targets with 6'6" Antonio Gates and 6'5" Malcom Floyd.  Basically, if those guys are constantly on the field with him, he's no longer the only viable red-zone target (with the TE last year sucking, and Jeffery injured, he had guys like 5'11" Devin Hester and 6'0" Earl Bennett on the field opposite him - it was clear every time who was going to be getting targeted with the jump balls in the red-zone).

Edited by Robrain, 09 May 2013 - 11:23 PM.

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#14 Robrain

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 11:40 PM

This is what I'm worried about hurting Marshall's TD ceiling:

http://www.nfl.com/v...-long-touchdown

http://www.nfl.com/v...-yard-touchdown

http://www.nfl.com/v...-out-to-Jeffery

http://www.nfl.com/v...effery-10-yd-TD

http://www.nfl.com/v...y-34-yard-catch

http://www.nfl.com/v...fery-35-yd-pass

He missed a lot of last season nursing injuries.  His presence will likely siphon looks from Marshall, eliminating the need to constantly force passes to him (which helped greatly with Marshall's receptions and yardage totals for the season).

Edited by Robrain, 09 May 2013 - 11:40 PM.

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#15 Ryan81

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 08:03 AM

That could go both ways though. Last year, he was the only legit threat so he was likely seeing more double teams.


Now there are more bigger guys to cover, so he they can't focus all the attention to Marshall.
"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

#16 rraayy3

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 11:22 AM

Jeffrey and Bennett ... no need to force the ball as much as they did with Marshall last year. Still a beast I'll consider in the late 1/early 2nd.

I don't argue receiver ranks ... there ends up being like a .5-1 point difference per game between them and all that matters is which one scores a TD for you in the first round of the playoffs.

* and Calvin Johnson is in a class by himself. That's not even debatable.

Edited by rraayy3, 10 May 2013 - 11:22 AM.


#17 crusoe

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 10:52 PM

View Postrraayy3, on 10 May 2013 - 11:22 AM, said:


* and Calvin Johnson is in a class by himself. That's not even debatable.

well, yeah I agree...by 4 points.  I guess that is not debatable when you dominate your position by 4 points.

#18 rraayy3

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 10:59 PM

View Postcrusoe, on 10 May 2013 - 10:52 PM, said:

View Postrraayy3, on 10 May 2013 - 11:22 AM, said:


* and Calvin Johnson is in a class by himself. That's not even debatable.

well, yeah I agree...by 4 points.  I guess that is not debatable when you dominate your position by 4 points.

Great point ... Shonn greene had more points than steven jackson last year. I guess that means they are equally talented too.

#19 Robrain

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 11:00 PM

View Postcrusoe, on 10 May 2013 - 10:52 PM, said:

View Postrraayy3, on 10 May 2013 - 11:22 AM, said:

* and Calvin Johnson is in a class by himself. That's not even debatable.

well, yeah I agree...by 4 points.  I guess that is not debatable when you dominate your position by 4 points.

TDs were extremely fluky for him last season.  He's practically a lock for double-digit TDs every season.  It's not even a question.

View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 12-Team PPR (Teamname: "Maniac Allstars"):
QB: Andrew Luck
WR1: Calvin Johnson - WR2: Torrey Smith - Bench: Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles
RB1: Mikel LeShoure - RB2: Dexter McCluster - Bench: Montario Hardesty, Kevin Smith
TE: Dennis Pitta
FLEX: Tony Gonzalez
K: Greg Zuerlein

#20 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 09:44 PM

Last year the Bears were 27th in the league in pass attempts. Per this link (http://www.coachmarc...ing-Career.html) new coach Mark Trestman has been the OC on the NFL's best passing offense multiple times. Unlike Lovie Smith, the passing game will no longer be an afterthought. Offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer has done a great job with o-line's in his career. This unit still needs work (the signing of Bushrod and drafting of Long should help a bit), but both hires suggest a strong uptick in the passing game. Last year Brandon Marshall had an absurd 40% of the targets Jay Cutler threw. Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL with a 31% rate. It's safe to say Marshall's rate will be coming down, likely closer to 30% but also the Bears should be passing the ball more. The departure of Lovie plus the likely decrease in defensive scores (and overall defensive efficiency since that was Lovie's best asset) should leave the opportunities to score (and leave them in more situations where they need to score). The Bears are using the off-season to speed up Jay Cutler's qb "clock", which once again furthers that they want the passing game to grow. From 1999 to 2001 Rich Gannon attempted 515, 473, and 549 passes. His 1st year under Trestman he attempted 619. While the CFL has only 8 teams, Trestman did have a top 2 passing offense each of the past 2 seasons. These are all just more random facts stressing my points. The Bears will throw more this year. Whether they lead the league remains to be seen but it is obvious they will at least approach the NFL median of around 550-560 pass attempts.

Even if Marshall dropped to 30% of the targets, on 550 pass attempts that is still 165. In 3 of Marshall's 4 seasons with Jay Cutler he had a 60% or better catch rate. That as a baseline on 165 targets gives us 99 catches. It's also safe to say that with a more involved passing game and the Bears defensive touchdowns decreasing, the passing td's should increase which gives Marshall a very realistic shot at another 10+ td's.

So all in all while I would expect Marshall's usage rate per play to decline, the larger passing volume should leave us with another season as Marshall a top 5 wr.

edit: 99 receptions and 10 td's isn't a projection of mine, rather I'm just saying that he has a very high floor.

Edited by Red Sox Nation, 07 July 2013 - 09:50 PM.





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