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Burch Smith 2013 Outlookcalled up for Sat 5/11


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#1 Golden Spikes

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:49 PM



The Padres will call up Burch Smith from Double-A San Antonio to start on Saturday against the Rays.

He's taking the spot of the injured Clayton Richard. Smith has made just six starts about A-ball, but he's off to a great start this season, putting up a 1.15 ERA with 37 strikeouts over 31 1/3 Double-A frames. He's worth monitoring in NL-only leagues.

5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#2 96mnc

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:50 PM

I'm excited to watch him.  Throws 97/98 mph heat with good control.  Just average secondaries from what I've read.

#3 Golden Spikes

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:52 PM

What I do know about this guy is he touches 100mph on the fastball, works 95-98 has + control and is a 9+ k/9 guy.  He was JUCO pitcher of the year in 2011 and a 14th rounder.  posted nice numbers for the Cal League 137k/126ip 3.5 ish ERA which for Cal League is great, and he has a 37/6 k/bb ratio this year

pitching in SD should help as well...

not in ESPN or Yahoo :(
5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#4 Golden Spikes

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:20 PM

Less than two years ago, Burch Smith was little-known 14th-round draft pick out of the University of Oklahoma.

Today he is perhaps the hottest pitching prospect in the Padres system – and quite possibly the first minor leaguer in line if the Padres need to make a change in their rotation.

Not since Jake Peavy more than a decade ago has a lower-round pitcher moved faster through the organization than the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Smith, who celebrated his 23rd birthday on April 12.

In less than two seasons, Smith has jumped from the Arizona Rookie League through Single-A Lake Elsinore to Double-A San Antonio – where he has a 1.38 earned run average after his fifth start Sunday afternoon.

Smith has allowed 15 hits with 31 strikeouts against five walks in 26 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .153 against Smith.

The tools: a fastball that tops out at 98 with an improving curve, change-up and 93-mph sinker that he picked up from Lake Elsinore and San Antonio teammate Donn Roach.

“I like the sinker a lot,” Smith said recently. “I use it a lot on change-up and fastball counts. Donn is a great instructor as well as a pitcher. I call it the ‘Roach Special.’ It’s a one-seam grip that is a very effective different look.”

Not only does Smith’s fastball top out at 98, the working range is 94-96.

“Smooth delivery and great command for someone with that velocity,” Padres vice president of player development Randy Smith said during spring training.

Smith always had pretty good command. But he didn’t have much velocity when he was younger. He threw in the high 80s in high school and the low 90s as a Sooner.

“I’ve added about a mile an hour a year to my fastball since high school,” said Smith. “At this rate, I’ll be throwing 125 when I turn 40.”

That of course was a joke, which tells you something else about Smith. There’s a maturity to the young man.

Although he skipped low Single-A, Smith got off to a slow start last year with Lake Elsinore.

“I gave up some homers early,” Smith recalled. “I worked with the pitching coach (Bronswell Patrick) about working lower in the zone. Overall, it’s been a mix of everything and a lot of it is mental . . . how to make the most of what you have.”

Physically, Smith said a key was working in the weight room.

“I was late getting there,” admitted Smith. “I really didn’t have a weight program until I was a freshman in high school.”
5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#5 BMcP

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:21 PM

Can't remember if I've ever said this, but CBS actually does not have this guy!
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#6 Gumbo_Ghost

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:22 PM

I still don't get how ESPN/Yahoo pick and choose who is in the system.
Like Carlos Martinez was in there, and was only in AA last season, started in AA.
Same as Burch, starts in AA.

Just random people are in the system, whereas others aren't.

#7 foeplay

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:23 PM

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#8 Golden Spikes

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:27 PM

his sinker could be huge in Petco
5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#9 kobe24

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:30 PM

Interesting...  A guy who throws heat pitching in petco.  Thoughts on him in dynasty leagues?

Edit: not in espn player pool?

Edited by kobe24, 08 May 2013 - 09:32 PM.


#10 Golden Spikes

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:35 PM

View Postkobe24, on 08 May 2013 - 09:30 PM, said:

Interesting...  A guy who throws heat pitching in petco.  Thoughts on him in dynasty leagues?

Im thinking about like around the level of Cashner maybe?  Its interesting that he has leaped the other Padres minor leaguers, and says something about where the organiztion might actually be heading.  Stauffer has pitched well in AAA and is finally healthy, and Erlin was the top non TJ SP in the top 20 minor leaguers and is being bypassed.  The fact they have to make a move on the 40 man says a lot about where he ranks, and they also moved Wisler (who is rated higher then Smith) to AA to replace him, also a top prospect says they dont plan on sending Burch down

I am calling it!!!! If Matt Harvey is the next Verlander, This guy is the next next guy that is the next Matt Harvey
5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#11 kobe24

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:57 PM

Someone please post in this thread when he becomes available in espn lol

#12 96mnc

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:04 PM

View Postkobe24, on 08 May 2013 - 09:30 PM, said:

Interesting...  A guy who throws heat pitching in petco.  Thoughts on him in dynasty leagues?

Edit: not in espn player pool?

I've owned him all year in my deep dynasty league (950 players owned) but it depends on roster size.  It can't hurt to pick him up for a look.  Velocity, command, ground ball profile in the NL West can't hurt.

Cashner has better secondaries (change up) but that's based on having seen Cash and just what I've read about Smith.

#13 Z06vette

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:07 PM

I'm calling ESPN now.
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#14 Z06vette

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:12 PM

Just talk to ESPN, they said player pool gets updated every day @ 3 AM. If you're not up that late, check in the morning. I wouldn't bank on him being there Thursday, probably Friday.
"Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens." - Jimi Hendrix

"A pessimist sees only the dark side of the clouds, and mopes; a philosopher sees both sides, and shrugs; an optimist doesn’t see the clouds at all – he’s walking on them. " - Leonard Louis Levinson

“When I was 5 years old, my mother always told me that happiness was the key to life. When I went to school, they asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up. I wrote down ‘happy’. They told me I didn’t understand the assignment, and I told them they didn’t understand life.” - John Lennon

#15 sfdevil

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:16 PM

he wasnt a big prospect as far as I know, what is his ceiling and immediate impact ?

#16 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:17 PM

View PostZ06vette, on 08 May 2013 - 10:12 PM, said:

Just talk to ESPN, they said player pool gets updated every day @ 3 AM. If you're not up that late, check in the morning. I wouldn't bank on him being there Thursday, probably Friday.

Why ESPN is the best format. Though he'll be on waivers, he'll be there. Thanks for the heads up.

#17 LIONS FAN-dsn

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:23 PM

This reminds me of how ppl stated Cingrani only had a good fastball and weak secondary stuff, I didn't add him and now he's pretty decent after all.  

Burch sounds like he's got an even better fastball but with lesser secondary pitches, but pitches in a great ballpark.  

I'm thinking about making this add.
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C- Carlos Santana
1B- Anthony Rizzo
2B- Brian Dozier
3B- Chase Headley
SS- Troy Tulowitzki
OF- Shin-Soo Choo
OF- Billy Hamilton
OF- Jose Bautista
Util- Gregor Polanco

Bench: Mookie Betts, Brandon Belt, Edwin Encarnacion-DL

SP: Julio Teheran, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Jesse Hahn, Jimmy Nelson

RP: David Robertson, Mark Melancon, Jenry Mejia

#18 96mnc

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 11:50 PM


From the poster padmanfan at Gaslampball.com.  

http://www.gaslampba...-saturday-start

“Most analysts like Sickels, Jason Parks, and Keith Law view him as a 4th or 5th starter, but I think he might have a little more in him. His 2 seam FB comes in around 92-94 with occasional late arm side burst. The 4 seam is consistently 94-97 with reports he touched 100 once. But it isn’t the velocity that makes him special in my view, it’s deception and command. He hides the ball very well and combined with his plus velocity he produces consistently late swings. In the 25 or so innings I watched this season, I can’t remember more than 1 right handed batter pulling his fastball. Lefties have trouble with him as well. A lot of the hits he gave up were opposite field line huggers.

Padres prospects have some cool gifs to illustrate the late swings he generates. Link

This fangraphs article has some gifs that show good arm side burst, particularly the 3rd Smith one, (6th overall gif) Link

His change up is probably average, the curve perhaps a touch below that. The slider can be impressive at times and other times just sweep. But he can command all of them for strikes which is a definite plus. I’m excited he got the call, but I’m also a little nervous. He pitches aggresively off the fastball, which is great in the minors but MLB hitters can adjust. Or will they? We’ll see pretty quickly if he can live off his fastball."

If his fastball plays as well as I hope it does he can stick as a 4th. If the secondary’s get a little better then we can dream on a 3. He’s real aggressive with the 4 seam and that plays well at Petco.


#19 Z06vette

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:05 AM

If he has great deception and throws that hard, he will be successful, even in the Majors. No doubt about it. You're good poster, 96mnc, I trust your judgement. If I recall correctly, you're from San Diego?
"Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens." - Jimi Hendrix

"A pessimist sees only the dark side of the clouds, and mopes; a philosopher sees both sides, and shrugs; an optimist doesn’t see the clouds at all – he’s walking on them. " - Leonard Louis Levinson

“When I was 5 years old, my mother always told me that happiness was the key to life. When I went to school, they asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up. I wrote down ‘happy’. They told me I didn’t understand the assignment, and I told them they didn’t understand life.” - John Lennon

#20 mevins31

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:18 AM

View Post96mnc, on 08 May 2013 - 08:50 PM, said:

I'm excited to watch him.  Throws 97/98 mph heat with good control.  Just average secondaries from what I've read.

Does not throw 97-98.

94-95 absolute tops. More commonly in the lower 90s. Where did you get the 97-98 from
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