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Russell Wilson 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 crusoe

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 01:55 PM

Wilson had a sleepy start to 2012, but once Seattle eased him in and opened up the playbook around week 10, he was the top fantasy football scorer at his position going forward.

Does Wilson experience a sophomore slump?  Does the addition of Percy Harvin put him over the top?

Personally, I think Wilson is a steal as the average 8th qb taken in early mocks.  I feel he has the floor of Matt Ryan and the upside potential of Brees.  Those rushes add up, sure, but Wilson has a legit arm and could produce as a pure pocket passer too.

What are your thoughts headed into 2013?

#2 DocJ

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 02:34 PM

Overall I agree. Right now he's going a shade over 1 full round after Kaep, that's how I've decided I'm going to gauge his value this season. If I can get him at around that spot or later I'll consider it pretty good value.
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#3 sfdevil

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:16 PM

love him as a real life qb, meh on fantasy (where he is drafted, at least) unless seattle D falls apart (extremely unlikely to happen)

Edited by sfdevil, 13 May 2013 - 03:16 PM.


#4 jtaylor39

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:16 PM

Something tells me he would be a better choice over Kaep.
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#5 predator_05

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:43 PM

View Postjtaylor39, on 13 May 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

Something tells me he would be a better choice over Kaep.

I don't know if he outscores Kaep, but he is definitely better value. Kaep is overdrafted at the moment, people seem to have forgotten that he plays on a run first team as well.
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#6 DocJ

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:47 PM

View Postjtaylor39, on 13 May 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

Something tells me he would be a better choice over Kaep.

Quite possible. I think Wilson might turn out to be a better pocket passer than Kaep in the long run. Going to be interesting with Harvin as a weapon now.
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#7 sfdevil

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:50 PM

wilson is already a better pocket passer than kaep.

the reason kaep should be drafted before wilson is that unless justin smith is 100% healthy and everything clicks for the Niners defense, he will have to throw the ball and make plays with his legs much more often than wilson, imo

#8 Robrain

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 04:27 PM


View PostHolben, on 20 July 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Jackie Battle...Better than Chris Johnson...

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#9 ForteDaysandForteNights

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Posted 13 June 2013 - 07:34 AM

As someone who has been exceptionally high on Russell Wilson for fantasy purposes this offseason I’ve been taking note of counterarguments to his potential for success this season. While they had tempered my expectations somewhat I decided to conduct an in depth analysis with the help of PFF and the Field Gulls website who have provided some extraordinary analysis of Wilson and the Seahawks offense. From this I’ve gathered that almost immediately it’s a question of opportunity rather than talent. Wilson passes all the eye tests, he can make all the throws and seems to be much less of a raw prospect then he should be for a rookie. Anyone can wax lyrical about his ability, it’s the limited opportunity for him to show them off in the Seahawks offense that worries people. With the lowest pass attempts in the league for those who qualify, Wilsons value is tied to his ability to make the most of the opportunities afforded him. I’ve examined this ability in several sections, while also providing a few notes on things I think bode well for his season.

Pass Efficiency

One of the keys to judging Wilson’s potential is whether or not he can maintain his high passing efficiency with the limited opportunities afforded to him. Last year he was ranked 4th in adjusted accuracy by PFF, 2nd in touchdown percentage with 6.6%, 4th in Y/A with 7.9 and 5th in Y/C with 12.4.  These are highly efficient numbers that are a hallmark of the elite quarterbacks. I’m not saying that Russell Wilson is anywhere near the elite but with the exception of Tom Brady most elite QB’s make the most of every pass attempt. That’s why Stafford can have a huge volume of passes and still not capitalize on his opportunity to the full extent.

It’s my belief that the reason Wilson was able to maintain this efficiency is not due to any inherent skill in passing the ball, though he can make every throw. Rather it’s a byproduct of his offense. The Seahawks love to run the ball effectively, setting up the play-action pass for what can be considered electric plays down the field. This helps Wilson maintain the efficiency of his pass attempts, a lot of the time he’s slinging it he’s pushing it down field. As long as the Seahawks operate this offense of ball control mixed with downfield strikes, it’s seems reasonable to expect Wilson to operate somewhere in the range he did last year with the opportunities afforded to him.


Rushing

Despite his effectiveness passing the ball, one of the main reasons you believe in Russell Wilson’s fantasy value this season is his ability to run the ball. Last season he averaged 5.9 rushing attempts per game for an average of 30.6 yards per game. On the season he totaled 489 yards and 4 touchdowns. It is important to note that 3 of these came in one game against the Bills.

When you consider his playoff efficiency he received more opportunities to carry the ball and rushed for a combined 127 on 15 attempts with 1 touchdown. This touchdown was scored on what I believe was a play action pass where the routes run by the receivers both came open and opened a lane for him to scramble in. I will address this later but I believe his mobility in the end zone will see him given creative ways to have the option of running it in.

Those 30.6 yards per game in the regular season are a reasonable basis to build a strong fantasy week on.  When looking at whether these effective numbers are repeatable we have a few things to draw on.

The Seahawks utilized the Read Option extensively from week 13 onwards, rushing from the option 50 times from weeks 13 – 17.  Almost all of these plays were run out of the Shotgun formation with 3 receivers spreading the field, I think I can only remember one time it was run in the pistol and I believe it resulted in a pass. Which in and of itself is a positive sign for Wilson to accrue fantasy points, he often has the option to forgo the run entirely and pass it. However just from the eye test, the amount of times the Option led to a rush from the HB or a pass leads me to believe that his rushing totals are not dependent on the Option, merely enhanced by it. This is reinforced by his rushing average from weeks 1-12 totaled 24.8 per game.  During this period the read option was run 5 times in total.

From this I draw the conclusion that while the Option enhances his rushing totals, if it was reduced in prominence by the Seattle offense, the nature of Wilson’s scrambling and improvisational play would still result in some points on the ground being accrued. I’d also expect more rushing opportunities in the Red Zone if the offense continues to play at the high level it did near the end of the 2012 season. Also of note is that Wilsons fantasy value is not as heavily invested in his rushing as say Colin Kaepernick, I’ve heard that some 40% of his fantasy points were tied to his legs. This is just a point of comparison.


Red Zone

When gauging Wilson’s ability to capitalize on opportunity, Red Zone efficiency becomes a huge part of that. In his run first offense the area in which he is most likely to accrue fantasy value is in the Red Zone. In this regard Wilson has displayed a remarkable efficiency with the opportunity afforded to him. His Red Zone stats including the playoffs is as follows

59 Completions on 103 attempts for a 57.2% completion.
496 yards 24 touchdowns 0 interceptions.

He knows how to protect the ball and can clearly make plays passing into the end zone.

Furthermore when you add Read Option running he had
5 carries for 54 yards. Obviously this shows more often not the read option would result in a hand off to Lynch/Turbin but when you consider the efficiency of their option offense in the Red Zone its hard not to wonder if Wilson will get more opportunities to keep it and run it in himself. The Seahawks overall Read Option success in the Red Zone was 22 carries for 157 yards at 7.13 yards per carry. I can’t imagine they don’t use this as a key wrinkle in their offense this upcoming season and Wilson should benefit from some of that.

Also when observing the Red Zone play calling towards the end of season it was clear that they had begun to build the option for Wilson to scramble into their play action in which shallow routes from his receivers create the opportunity for him to either tuck into good lanes or pass to the open receiver. Whether this was intentional or not can be questioned but the way in which Zach Miller instinctively seems to act as an outlet for his scrambling by either leaving his assigned block to act as a receiver or move to assist him in the scramble seems to show his team has developed an apparent chemistry for his improvisational play.

Percy Harvin

What I term the Percy Harvin effect. The addition of this guy on the offense can only make good things for Wilson. Joining an already talented receiving corp, his unique skills seem tailor made to assist Wilson in capitalizing on his pass attempts. Over an admittedly small 2012 sample Harvin averaged 10.29 yards per catch. This includes his 9th game being cut short and the looming specter of having Christian Ponder pass to him. I can’t imagine a situation in which Harvin regresses in his new situation. In fact there is room for improvement considering he played just 58.8% of the offensive snaps. Furthermore he boasted a catch rate of 79.1% from the slot, led the league in broken tackles with 19 (Golden Tate was 5th with 14) and boasted 0 dropped passes on 82 targets. Yes yes Percy Harvin is awesome get to the point. All these traits seem like a match made in heaven with Wilson to get the most out of his pass attempts, if you’re only gonna heave it 25 times a game, it’s good to have someone out there proficient at breaking tackles and catching the ball. This connection will only bode good things. Also I can’t imagine the Seahawks won’t try and get the ball in his hands as much as they can help it, I wouldn’t be surprised if his attempts tick upwards slightly.


Offensive Line

The Seahawks possess an average line for pass protection, ranked 13th by PFF. This is somewhat mitigated by his innate ability to avoid the pass rush and extend plays. Despite this they gave up 33 sacks and 64 hits, a number that seems relatively high considering how few passes were actually attempted. I do expect this number to go down however barring injury. Unger and Okung were both Pro Bowl for a reason, the line gains some continuity and at times guys like J.R Sweezy were looking dominant. I don’t consider this a major issue for a mobile guy like Wilson.

The 12th Man

What I perceive to be an unheralded advantage of Wilson’s is the way the Seahawks excel when they play at home. Even early in the season while he wasn’t performing at a high level, he was recording passable fantasy numbers and later on these numbers would explode. The sole exception to this is the game against the Cardinals in which he was quickly pulled while the Seahawks ran roughshod over them. Here are his numbers at home. Even with the inherent risk in drafting Wilson I would expect at least 8 games over the season where he posts a strong showing.

Week 2: 12
Week 3: 14
Week 6: 22
Week 9: 20
Week 10: 16
Week 14: 8
Week 16: 22
Week 17: 25


All in all, after some analysis and with some understanding of the way the Seahawks offense works, I remain bullish on Russell Wilson this season. At worst he’s a borderline top 10 QB I’m reaching a bit early for (I plan to take him in the 5th round). At best he continues the high level of play that saw him perform as a top 3 QB for the end of the season. In a position as deep as QB is this season I’m willing to gamble a mid round pick on my guy and hope it pans out. If it doesn’t then there are guys around I know will be able to pick up the slack. But I’m supremely confident that won’t have to happen.
12 Team Standard Scoring

QB - Russell Wilson
RB- Marshawn Lynch
RB- Reggie Bush
WR- Wes Welker
WR- A.J Green
TE- Jordan Cameron
Flex- Keenan Allen
D/ST - Tampa Bay
K - Justin Tucker

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#10 crusoe

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Posted 13 June 2013 - 10:46 PM

That's good analysis fortedays.  I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment that Wilson is at worst a top 10 (and therefore ff qb1) and at best he contends for #1 qb overall.  A lot of people disagree with me, but I stand by my statement that Wilson has the floor of Matt Ryan and the ceiling of Brees.

#11 sfdevil

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 12:32 AM

View Postcrusoe, on 13 June 2013 - 10:46 PM, said:

  A lot of people disagree with me, but I stand by my statement that Wilson has the floor of Matt Ryan and the ceiling of Brees.
so a floor of someone who threw for 1.5 times more than him ? this is fantasy, right ?

with all the analysis mentioned here no one tried to explain why would the seahawks pass so much more. why would you pass the ball a ton with a great defense and a great run game with a beast RB, likely ahead by a few scores ? just because you can ? doubt it

maybe if you play in 6 pt TD leagues, but in standard leagues floor of ryan is wishful thinking imo

and for the record I like wilson more than ryan already as a real life qb

#12 FFCollusion

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 12:58 AM

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 12:32 AM, said:

with all the analysis mentioned here no one tried to explain why would the seahawks pass so much more
I'll give you a hint.  It rhymes with Mercy Starvin'.
Plus, it is his 2nd year, we have to assume they'll let him use his arm a bit more than last year.  Not a whole lot, but some.
That being the case, I'm still not drafting Wilson.  In the scenario where I miss the 2-3 QBs I'm targeting, I'll just wait until the last round possible to get Romo or Luck, and call it a day.
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#13 sfdevil

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 01:21 AM

View PostFFCollusion, on 18 June 2013 - 12:58 AM, said:

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 12:32 AM, said:

with all the analysis mentioned here no one tried to explain why would the seahawks pass so much more
I'll give you a hint.  It rhymes with Mercy Starvin'.

this doesnt answer my question in any way shape or form

even if he had a player who rhymed with a prime perry dice or dandy ross or carrell rowens...that still wouldnt answer my question.

the best fantasy qbs generally have : 1. bad defenses 2.offensive masterminds and offenses catered to passing 3. crappy running game

the seahawks have none of those. I can see lots of sehawks home games ending well before end of third quarter.

#14 ForteDaysandForteNights

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 01:53 AM

My point was the Seahawks aren't going to pass that much more. While I can imagine they pass to get the ball in Harvin's hands a bit more this season, I don't think Wilson is going be slinging it much more than he was last year. However despite his low pass attempts, look at where Dangeruss finished last year in fantasy points. It's not like he suffered from his low pass attempts. What he does with the opportunities afforded him is what matters.


I think it's a part of the Seahawks offensive philosophy, it's a bit of a juxtaposition really. They love to protect the ball, run it hard and control the clock. But they also love to set up the big downfield strike, the play action pass. It's a weird blend, it's why I think Wilson's passing stats will continue to be fine, they're not gonna get away from that.

Wilson's ranked by PFF 2nd in play-action effectiveness and 5th in deep passing. The Hawks ran play-action 36.1% of the time. The run sets up his passing, he doesn't need to pass pass pass.

I owned Stafford last year, he passed it around 40-60 times a game with Megatron out there and he wasn't producing for me. I'm not a huge subscriber to pass-attempts being key to fantasy output. Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Andrew Luck were all in the top 5 in pass attempts and finished outside the top 5 in fantasy.

You know who was tenth in pass attempts in the league? Aaron Rodgers. He doesn't have to sling it a lot, he's just efficient with what he does. Wilson isn't close to Rodgers, but you combine that same efficiency with his rushing and I think you can make a case for solid weekly output. We already have an example of this type of fantasy player. Cam Newton was 19th in pass attempts, 6 spots higher than Wilson yet (when he puts it together) he puts it together as a fantasy producer.

Plus I have a sneaky feeling if the Hawks continue their dominance, judging from his college days Carroll is going to enjoy stepping on the throat of his opponents and running it up Patriots style.
12 Team Standard Scoring

QB - Russell Wilson
RB- Marshawn Lynch
RB- Reggie Bush
WR- Wes Welker
WR- A.J Green
TE- Jordan Cameron
Flex- Keenan Allen
D/ST - Tampa Bay
K - Justin Tucker

.

#15 sfdevil

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 02:32 AM

View PostForteDaysandForteNights, on 18 June 2013 - 01:53 AM, said:



I think it's a part of the Seahawks offensive philosophy, it's a bit of a juxtaposition really. They love to protect the ball, run it hard and control the clock. But they also love to set up the big downfield strike, the play action pass. It's a weird blend, it's why I think Wilson's passing stats will continue to be fine, they're not gonna get away from that.

Wilson's ranked by PFF 2nd in play-action effectiveness and 5th in deep passing. The Hawks ran play-action 36.1% of the time. The run sets up his passing, he doesn't need to pass pass pass.
I dont think it's a weird juxtaposition, really.
the premier run teams in the league are widely successful with playaction. Houston last year was pretty much a play action team, and Niners, at least under Alex Smith had absolutely mindblowing numbers passing from play action.

Quote

I owned Stafford last year, he passed it around 40-60 times a game with Megatron out there and he wasn't producing for me. I'm not a huge subscriber to pass-attempts being key to fantasy output. Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Andrew Luck were all in the top 5 in pass attempts and finished outside the top 5 in fantasy.
not all QBs who will throw a lot are good though. stafford is overhyped, but even then all those numbers are based on one year, and andrew luck was a rookie. in general those three things hold true. drew brees is probably the most consistent fantasy qbs not because hes the best qb in the league. it's because of those factors PLUS the fact hes elite.

Quote

You know who was tenth in pass attempts in the league? Aaron Rodgers. He doesn't have to sling it a lot, he's just efficient with what he does.

sure. Rodgers is the best QB in the game though, real life. I mean, thats what youre supposed to do as a real life qb. minimize mistakes and maximize chances. AND GB didnt have much run game and they had a inconsistent D.

Quote

already have an example of this type of fantasy player. Cam Newton was 19th in pass attempts, 6 spots higher than Wilson yet (when he puts it together) he puts it together as a fantasy producer.
cam newton is on a team that is always behind. wilson is literally the opposite of that.

Quote

Plus I have a sneaky feeling if the Hawks continue their dominance, judging from his college days Carroll is going to enjoy stepping on the throat of his opponents and running it up Patriots style.

weird, all Ive heard from Pete is how they will keep running the ball a ton .here you can be right but its anyones guess really. it will be weird though seeing pete a hypocrite because he was pissed off about harbaugh running it up on the trojans, but whatevs

my humble opinion: brady circa patriots 2004, give or take. wilson aint brady (yet) and is much much more mobile, yet similar stats are envisioned by me. for those days, pretty good numbers. these days, they are similar to wilson's last years numbers.

TL;DR version: put wilson on a team with worse D and worse run game, give him a sean payton, and Id draft him top 3-5 no questions asked. as is, Id curb my expectations

#16 ForteDaysandForteNights

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 02:47 AM

You make a lot of good points I agree with, which is why I would take him as the 6th QB off the board because he hits that perfect sweet spot for me of risk-reward in the round I'd take him. My expectations may be a little too high on him but I think if you've built a solid team in the earlier rounds at other positions, you can afford to look to the upside of Wilson in the middle rounds over a perennial 8th best QB like Romo.

Also just as an aside, the Panthers lost all but one of their 7 losses within a score. I can't imagine they were playing from that far behind too often.
12 Team Standard Scoring

QB - Russell Wilson
RB- Marshawn Lynch
RB- Reggie Bush
WR- Wes Welker
WR- A.J Green
TE- Jordan Cameron
Flex- Keenan Allen
D/ST - Tampa Bay
K - Justin Tucker

.

#17 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:44 AM

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 01:21 AM, said:

View PostFFCollusion, on 18 June 2013 - 12:58 AM, said:

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 12:32 AM, said:

with all the analysis mentioned here no one tried to explain why would the seahawks pass so much more
I'll give you a hint.  It rhymes with Mercy Starvin'.

this doesnt answer my question in any way shape or form

even if he had a player who rhymed with a prime perry dice or dandy ross or carrell rowens...that still wouldnt answer my question.

the best fantasy qbs generally have : 1. bad defenses 2.offensive masterminds and offenses catered to passing 3. crappy running game

the seahawks have none of those. I can see lots of sehawks home games ending well before end of third quarter.

On paper, the SEA Def looks even better than last year but things have a funny way of not working the way everyone expects in the NFL.  A couple injuries, slip in play by a few players, and suddenly the SEA Def is just average.  Not saying it's going to happen but I'm not going to assume that the SEA Def plays better than last season.  Plus in the in their division alone, I see major improvements by the offenses of the Cardinals and Rams.  I think SEA is going to have to score more points this season and Wilson will be asked to pass more.  He's not suddenly going to morph into Brees or Brady but I believe Wilson was a top 3 fantasy QB over his final 8 games last season.  No reason why that can't be his ceiling for 2013.

#18 FFCollusion

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 09:44 AM

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 01:21 AM, said:

View PostFFCollusion, on 18 June 2013 - 12:58 AM, said:

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 12:32 AM, said:

with all the analysis mentioned here no one tried to explain why would the seahawks pass so much more
I'll give you a hint.  It rhymes with Mercy Starvin'.

this
Glad you agree.
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#19 sfdevil

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 11:41 AM

View PostFFCollusion, on 18 June 2013 - 09:44 AM, said:

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 01:21 AM, said:

View PostFFCollusion, on 18 June 2013 - 12:58 AM, said:

View Postsfdevil, on 18 June 2013 - 12:32 AM, said:

with all the analysis mentioned here no one tried to explain why would the seahawks pass so much more
I'll give you a hint.  It rhymes with Mercy Starvin'.

this
Glad you agree.
glad you have nothing to say but troll.

#20 drater

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 11:56 AM

He doesn't have to throw it more, he just has to keep playing like he did from week 10 on and he's a steal wherever he's drafted out of the top 4 rounds. Considering he's been in VMAC every day at 5am to watch film and is organizing offseason workouts with all his skill position players, I have no reason to expect he'll fall back to his early season production. Once Carroll took the kid gloves off, he thrived. Wilson displays a desire to excel like few others and has the physical ability (height notwithstanding) to achieve it. Undervalue at your own risk.




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