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Alfred Morris 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 Major

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:51 AM

I think this kid is a classic buy-low this year. Everyone's down on him because of RG3, Shananigans, and a sophomore slump. I don't love his lack of involvement in the passing game, but I think he still has about a 1650 yard season with double digit TDs.

#2 predator_05

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 01:19 PM

Broke more tackles than any other RB except Peterson. He is definitely the real deal.

I do think RG3's presence helped him though. Would be a loss, but still borderline 1st rd, early 2nd rd talent.
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#3 Robrain

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 02:21 PM

It's not that I don't think that he's got some talent, but when was the last time a guy rushed for 1,613 yards, but had just 77 receiving yards?

Heck, when was the last time a RB rushed for 1,500 or more yards, and had less than 100 receiving yards in the same season?

I think it pretty clearly had a lot to do with RGIII. I think he could certainly rush for 1,200-1,300, but unless he gets involved more in the short passing game I could see his total (combined) yards drop next season, especially if RGIII isn't on the field to begin the season.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#4 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 03:58 PM

I like his value a lot in standard leagues. Morris is a legit late first-rounder.

#5 Puk3s

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 08:25 PM

It's not that I don't think that he's got some talent, but when was the last time a guy rushed for 1,613 yards, but had just 77 receiving yards?

Heck, when was the last time a RB rushed for 1,500 or more yards, and had less than 100 receiving yards in the same season?

I think it pretty clearly had a lot to do with RGIII. I think he could certainly rush for 1,200-1,300, but unless he gets involved more in the short passing game I could see his total (combined) yards drop next season, especially if RGIII isn't on the field to begin the season.


I agree on this, my biggest worry about Morris is his lack of receiving yards which could leave him more vulnerable to bad games specially if defenses start to figure out the read-option although from what I read the strategy for stopping the read option tends to be to hit the quarterback and let him hand it to the RB thus giving backs like Morris lots of carries with a decent amount of space ahead of them. In my current mocks he doesn't end up on my roster often (could be because I haven't done many with slots at the end of the first) but we'll see.
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#6 whysosaucy

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 11:36 PM

I like Morris where he is going this year. I trust him over Trent Richardson any day, I mean, Morris actually did it, 1600 yards, he is no slouch, and the pistol opens up the run running game so much and allows for big gains. Shanny found a perfect fit for his run game. I would pick him at 11 all day, which is about where he is going and would prolly pick him up as early as 8 or 9. All I know is i'm going 2rb's back to back in first 2 rounds, regardless.

#7 Robrain

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 11:59 PM


It's not that I don't think that he's got some talent, but when was the last time a guy rushed for 1,613 yards, but had just 77 receiving yards?

Heck, when was the last time a RB rushed for 1,500 or more yards, and had less than 100 receiving yards in the same season?

I think it pretty clearly had a lot to do with RGIII. I think he could certainly rush for 1,200-1,300, but unless he gets involved more in the short passing game I could see his total (combined) yards drop next season, especially if RGIII isn't on the field to begin the season.


I agree on this, my biggest worry about Morris is his lack of receiving yards which could leave him more vulnerable to bad games specially if defenses start to figure out the read-option although from what I read the strategy for stopping the read option tends to be to hit the quarterback and let him hand it to the RB thus giving backs like Morris lots of carries with a decent amount of space ahead of them. In my current mocks he doesn't end up on my roster often (could be because I haven't done many with slots at the end of the first) but we'll see.


Yeah, mainly with Alfred Morris I'm worried about the games that RGIII may not be the starting quarterback at the beginning of the season if he isn't fully recovered / rehabbed. Or that RGIII won't be used / run the same way if he's not 100% recovered but still starting.

I think the best way to illustrate my point is by pointing to the games where RGIII was playing injured / Kirk Cousins was the starter:

http://www.nfl.com/p...532820/gamelogs

http://www.nfl.com/p...533457/gamelogs

That would be Week 15 (the week Kirk Cousins started - RGIII injured his knee initially at the end of Week 14's game), Week 16 (RGIII's first game back after injuring his knee at the end of Week 14) and Week 18 (playoff week where RGIII was injured). It's a small sample size, but I think can be indicative of the downside of an offense that's without it's biggest playmaker (obviously that's RGIII):

Alfred Morris' stats during those weeks:
Week 15: 27 carries, 87 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs / 2 receptions / 6 receiving yards
Week 16: 22 carries, 91 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD / 1 reception, 17 receiving yards
Week 18: 16 carries, 80 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs / 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards

Now, some people will point to Alfred Morris' Week 17 performance and say "Well, RGIII was playing injured in that game too!". True, true, but when else during the rest of the season did Alfred Morris get 30 or more carries? Never.

Week 17: 33 carries, 200 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs / 2 receptions, 12 receiving yards

Now, I would basically label Alfred Morris as a volume runner. He doesn't have the skillset to get massive yardage totals on his own. But just because I label him a "volume runner" doesn't mean that I believe that giving him 25+, you know, 30+ carries will guarantee him 100+rushing yards almost every game, ala Arian Foster.

Because honestly, we know that when Alfred got 33 carries in Week 17, he had that magical 200-yard rushing total. However, what about the other games where he had a high amount of carries?

How about the weeks that he had his next two highest carry totals?

Week 01: 28 carries, 96 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs / 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards
Week 15: 27 carries, 87 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs / 2 receptions, 6 receiving yards

You might look at those 2 rushing TDs both those weeks, as well as the 3 rushing TDs during his 33 carry / 200 rushing yard week, and go, well damn, that still looks alright to me.

But what I'm looking at is the fact that those weeks were not exactly common. Out of 16 weeks during the regular season, he had 25 or more carries ONLY during those 3 weeks. 2 of those 3 weeks Washington was leading by at least 10 points basically going into the beginning of the 2nd half (and during his 33-carry, 200 rushing yard game, RGIII had his only single-digit completion total of the entire season):

Week 15 vs. CLE:
Cleveland is up 14-10 over Washington going into the 2nd half.
2nd half kickoff, Washington kicks the ball off to Cleveland, Joshua Cribbs returns it 20 yards to Cleveland's 26-yard line. Yawn.
First play of their drive, handoff to Trent Richardson, 1 yard gain. Yawn.

14:53 seconds remaining in the 3rd Quarter (it had basically just started):
Second play of the drive, Washington's defense intercepts a pass from Brandon Weeden thrown to Greg Little (gee, of course it was Greg Little), at Cleveland's 32-yard line, and returns the interception 17 yards to Cleveland's 15-yard line. That means the offense has to go a mere 15-yards to score on that offensive drive, with Kirk Cousins at the helm.
  • 1-10-CLE 15(14:12) 12-K.Cousins pass short left to 15-J.Morgan to CLE 3 for 12 yards (43-T.Ward).
  • 1-3-CLE 3(13:27) 12-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Garcon (23-J.Haden).
  • 2-3-CLE 3(13:20) 46-A.Morris left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

I'm not trying to say that it doesn't mean anything, but the point I want to make is that touchdown put them ahead at essentially the very beginning of the 2nd half.

On the very next drive, with Cleveland now down 17-14, Cleveland's offense gets stopped and is forced to punt from their own 28-yard line. The punt is a pathetic 32-yard punt, giving the Washington offense the ball back on Washington's 40-yard line. Alfred Morris totals 19 rushing yards on the subsequent scoring drive:
  • 1-10-WAS 40(11:24) 12-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-S.Moss to CLE 43 for 17 yards (21-D.Patterson).
  • 1-10-CLE 43(10:51) 46-A.Morris right end to CLE 37 for 6 yards (52-D.Jackson). pitchout
  • 2-4-CLE 37(10:24) 12-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-S.Moss to CLE 17 for 20 yards (53-C.Robertson).
  • 1-10-CLE 17(9:40) 46-A.Morris left tackle to CLE 6 for 11 yards (56-K.Maiava). pitchout
  • 1-6-CLE 6(9:02) 46-A.Morris left tackle to CLE 4 for 2 yards (98-P.Taylor).
  • 2-4-CLE 4(8:25) 12-K.Cousins pass short middle to 46-A.Morris to CLE 2 for 2 yards (97-J.Sheard).
  • 3-2-CLE 2(7:45) 12-K.Cousins pass short right to 85-L.Hankerson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Why am I pointing this out?

Because during the first half of the game, Kirk Cousins first game as the starter, this was Alfred Morris statline:

9 carries, 18 rushing yards - 2 yards per carry

It wasn't until they essentially got gift-wrapped a possession in the opposing team's red-zone at the beginning of the 2nd half, and got the go-ahead score on that possession (Morris picked up only the 3-yard TD on that possession, giving him 21 total rushing yards on 10 carries up to that point) that Morris really started putting together any decent yardage totals.

So again, they get the go-ahead score at the beginning of the 2nd half after being gift-wrapped the ball in the opponent's red-zone. Stalemate the opponent on their next offensive drive and get the ball back in good field position due to a shoddy punt. With the lead 17-14, they drive down the field and score (Morris contributes 3 carries for 19 rushing yards on that drive, giving him a total of 13 carries for 40 rushing yards, essentially doubling his total rushing yards prior to that drive).

Now that score puts Washington ahead with a 24-14 lead. Again, to this point, Morris has just 13 total carries.

For the final 22 minutes and 40 seconds (basically, 7:40 left in the 3rd quarter, which was the time left on the clock after the Redskins TD which put them up 24-14), they basically used Alfred Morris in a clock-killing role. That's really the only reason he ended up with 27 total carries that game. They weren't feeding him because that was their game strategy. They were feeding him simply because they had a 10-point lead, and they had Kirk Cousins QB'ing his very first regular season game.

After they went up 10 points with 7:40 left on the clock in the 3rd quarter, Washington basically more than doubled Morris' carries (13) up to that point. From that point on, he got 14 carries, for 47 yards (3.357 YPC).

So yeah, he got 27 carries that game, but it was COMPLETELY game-flow oriented. The plan was NOT "we're gonna give Alfred Morris the ball 27 times". The plan simply ended up being "we're up 10 points, we'll give it to Morris for as many times as it takes to drain the rest of the clock so we don't risk blowing our lead with our backup QB".

How often do we honestly expect the Redskins to be gift-wrapped the go-ahead score at the beginning of the 2nd half, and then basically instantly get a 10-point lead so all they have to do is run out the clock?

http://www.nfl.com/g...lyze=playbyplay

Because that's basically the same thing that happened when he got 28 carries during Week 1 against the Saints.

28 carries, but still just a mere 96 rushing yards. That is NOT the definition of upside when we're talking about a volume back.

First half of that game versus the Saints? 9 carries. Just 21 rushing yards.

Second half of that game? Well, they start the second half with a 20-14 lead. Plus they get the ball back on the opening kickoff. They drive all the way down the field from their own 23-yard line to score, making their lead now a MASSIVE 27-14 lead. How many rushing yards did Morris get on that scoring drive? 7 rushing yards. Making his total to that point 11 carries for 28 rushing yards. 2.8 yards per carry.

Now, with a 13-point lead and 26 minutes and 24 seconds left in the game (11 minutes and 24 seconds left in the 3rd quarter), Alfred Morris gets 17 carries for 68 rushing yards. 4 yards per carry during that span.

Again, he totaled a magical 28 carries that game, but he still ended up with just 96 rushing yards (not even the 100-rushing yards a week that fantasy owners are hoping from a workhorse 20+carry a game RB), and the majority of it came during clock-killing time when they already had a 13-point lead. How often is that realistically going to be the case in 2013 with either a less-than-100% RGIII, or Kirk Cousins starting at QB?

And I realize some people will respond to these instances with the typical "we know RB's pick up yardage during clock-killing time, so what?".

My point is simply, when we're talking about a high volume running back, I'll point out this:

Maurice Jones-Drew never dipped below 84 rushing yards in a single game the entire 2011 season:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2011

MJD's QB was absolutely terrible.

Even with RGIII at QB, Alfred Morris dipped to 47, 59, 76, and 76 rushing yards during some weeks.

Okay, correction, there was ONE week where MJD had just 63 rushing yards.

But to emphasize my point, what MJD did have going for him was that he caught passes out of the backfield, inflating his total yardage to considerably higher levels than Alfred Morris. And MJD put up that yardage total on a considerably worse team.

Alfred Morris rushing yards: 1,613
MJD's rushing yards in 2011: 1,606

Alfred Morris total yards: 1,690
MJD's total yards in 2011: 1,980

This is why I so often state that situation is crucial when it comes to projecting a player/RB's value / production.

I believe that RGIII had a MASSIVE effect on enhancing Alfred Morris' YPC most weeks. You take RGIII away, or you throw him out there at less than 100%, and I don't think that Alfred Morris produces consistently like a true RB1.

To me, Alfred Morris is an RB2 with slight RB1 upside. I would NEVER draft a RB of RB2 caliber in the first or second rounds.

It's sort of like drafting Matthew Stafford. If Calvin Johnson were to get hurt, Stafford's fantasy production would take a MASSIVE hit.

Except, odds are far more likely that RGIII suffers an injury than Calvin Johnson suffering one.

Factor in that Morris pretty much isn't used to catch passes, and unless I can get Alfred Morris at a significant discount in the draft, I just don't see him being on m/any of my teams.

I'd have to know that RGIII is 100% healthy and will be used to run just as much as last season to even consider taking Alfred Morris in the 2nd round.

If RGIII isn't 100% healthy, or won't be starting at the beginning of the season, I'd much MUCH rather have a RB like Darren McFadden or David Wilson in the 3rd / 4th rounds, even if Morris was still available as well in that same round. Their upside is far, far higher than Morris, and you won't have to reach for them in the first or second round.

Edited by Robrain, 20 May 2013 - 12:05 AM.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#8 whysosaucy

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 01:08 AM

Robrain, I agree with you, that Morris of course benefits from RG3 being, in, and the pistol, being a weapon. I actually think any RB, right now, is going to do better with the threat of the pistol, and when the running back is given the ball on the read, more often then not the DE too himself out of the play, and is going to be a pretty big gain for the dive back. I'm targeting all the option/pistol rb's I can get. Lynch, Morris, Gore. Alex Smith will be running a little pistol in KC, so not sure they will run it that often but it will open up things even more for Charles. People forget how much an athlete A Smitty is. I think he ran a similar if not faster 20 yard dash and shuttle, then Kaep, but Kaep obviously smoked him in the 40. I think RG3 will be good to go, and healthy the whole season, i'm not scared, and having a hard time personally picking between Mccoy, and Morris I just think Morris will defintley get his.

#9 Robrain

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 01:57 AM

Robrain, I agree with you, that Morris of course benefits from RG3 being, in, and the pistol, being a weapon. I actually think any RB, right now, is going to do better with the threat of the pistol, and when the running back is given the ball on the read, more often then not the DE too himself out of the play, and is going to be a pretty big gain for the dive back. I'm targeting all the option/pistol rb's I can get. Lynch, Morris, Gore. Alex Smith will be running a little pistol in KC, so not sure they will run it that often but it will open up things even more for Charles. People forget how much an athlete A Smitty is. I think he ran a similar if not faster 20 yard dash and shuttle, then Kaep, but Kaep obviously smoked him in the 40. I think RG3 will be good to go, and healthy the whole season, i'm not scared, and having a hard time personally picking between Mccoy, and Morris I just think Morris will defintley get his.


I agree with the bolded.

I'm ideally targeting a true RB1 in the first or second round. A guy like AP or Foster probably if I have one of the highest picks, but hopefully a guy like Ray Rice (or Trent Richardson in the later part of Round 1). I think Ray Rice could closely match (or slightly exceed) MJD's stats from 2011 next season, due to the change in playcallers/usage (no more Cam Cameron). Yes, I realize Pierce showed well last season, but he still received double-digit carries just 3 times all of last season, and one of those weeks was Week 17 when Ray Rice got rested for the playoffs.

Ray Rice was criminally underused last season by Cam Cameron, and will likely see a lot more consistency next season with his carries/touches via the new offensive coordinator. Plus, he'll be making $8 million this season. I don't see how they justify paying him that much money if they don't heavily use him. I see him easily reaching 300 carries this season. Part of it is the fact that, it doesn't matter how good Bernard Pierce is, they're still paying Ray Rice $8 million, so they'll use him 'til he breaks. Second, well, he's still Ray-freaking Rice. Pierce will go in when Rice needs a breather, and if Rice gets hurt, they have a solid backup just like Foster has Tate. But I don't expect it to be much of an actual timeshare.

If anything, it may simply limit the amount of times that Ray Rice gets more than 20 carries per game. Example, instead of getting carries distributed like this:

22
18
26
33
24
20
27
30

We might see the carries ending up looking more like this for Rice:

20
20
22
21
24
20
21
22
25

Which could actually help decrease overall wear and tear, as they'd essentially have him on a snap count (albeit a nice, consistently high one), which could keep him fresh and effective across the entire season.

For example, it might actually look closer to MJD's 2011 carry totals, where MJD had more than 25 carries in a single week just twice the entire regular season (27 and 30).

However, whereas MJD had 43 receptions, Ray Rice seems to be a lock for 60-70+ receptions, while putting up those same carry totals. Remember, Ray Rice's 2011 combined yardage was actually 2,068 total yards.

So even if the miniature timeshare with Pierce keeps Ray Rice's carries in the low 20's, 60-70 receptions for the season would mean that his actual average touches per game remain around 25. Which is exactly the kind of consistency I'm looking for from my 1st round RB selection. So if Bernard Pierce getting some carries each week helps make that happen, and keeps Ray Rice a little fresher (more productive / effective per carry/reception/touch), I'm actually all for it.

I don't see the timeshare being the same kind of timeshare as David Wilson / Andre Brown will potentially be in (or Ahmad Bradshaw / Brandon Jacobs were in during previous seasons, or DWill / JStew). I guess that's my point.

There's a lot of RB's I think definitely have a higher potential upside, as well as a higher potential downside, primarily due to their usage in the short passing game. McCoy, Lynch, Spiller, David Wilson, CJ0K (and I hate to name him, but it's true).

I completely forgot about Gore, but I think I'd have him at least slightly ahead of wherever I have Morris. As you can tell, the list of RB's I have ahead of Morris is actually pretty long. There are just a lot of great RB options this year, reaching for Morris in the 1st round, maybe even the 2nd round, feels to me like just that, a reach.

I think MJD coming off LisFranc surgery is probably right around where I'd rank Morris right now, as both have major uncertainty issues that could affect their fantasy production (MJD, his own foot, Morris, his star QB's knee recovery).

3rd or 4th round, basically sort of where AP was going during this point last offseason. Some reached to take him in the 2nd or so, but this early into his recovery process, 3rd or 4th seemed like an easier gamble to swallow.

There are actually a lot of RB's, but some of the predominant thinking seems to be that everyone should try to go RB/RB unless you're getting a guy like Calvin Johnson in the first, or one of either Gronk or Graham in the second (assuming Gronk was 100% healthy).

If that's what a lot of fantasy owners end up doing, the massive amount of high upside RB's could actually go really quickly in the first two rounds of a 12-team league. Some people have stated that there's a pretty sharp drop-off in quality of RB's in the 3rd and 4th rounds (and beyond). That basically assumes a big run on the star caliber RB's in the first two rounds, which I would agree is a very real possibility if your leaguemates are all reading the same news sources.

I'd hate to have to go against a guy who had Trent Richardson and Lynch / SJax, if I'm rolling out Alfred Morris and Chris Ivory. It's not that Alfred Morris and Ivory are necessarily bad, it's just that the odds are high that the opponent's roster is going to be stacked at the RB position. And you'll face quite a few teams that have rosters like that if you settle for a RB like Alfred Morris as anything more than good RB depth.

I can actually see the argument for going RB/RB/RB this year if you can land a pair of RB's like Ray Rice/Trent Richardson/Lynch/SJax, and then you add a 3rd RB for depth purposes in Round 3 of a still high caliber like McFadden, Wilson, Morris, or CJ0K. Even better if you can somehow get one of those guys as your 3rd RB in Round 4 (maybe like, early Round 4).

Whereas normally I waited until beyond Round 4 (basically, 5, 6, or 7) to pick my primary backup RB, typically a solid, consistent guy on the cheap like Tim Hightower (year he started for the Redskins, as well as the two years before that), or Willis McGahee last year, I think I'd rather have a higher caliber player to be really confident in my backup RB's production capabilities, as opposed to taking a bigger risk on a guy like Ivory. It's not that Ivory is bad, I'd just feel better with a different RB.

I could see ALL of the following RB's going in the first two rounds:

Adrian Peterson
Arian Foster
Doug Martin
Jamaal Charles
C.J. Spiller
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Trent Richardson
Marshawn Lynch
Frank Gore
Chris Johnson

Steven Jackson
Darren McFadden
Alfred Morris

Maybe these guys fall outside of the 2nd round, but maybe a desperate team at the tail end of the 2nd reaches for them assuming the names above are already gone by their late-2nd round pick:


Matt Forte
DeMarco Murray

Beyond that, early Round 3 and into Round 4, would probably go (and someone could still reach late-2nd for one of these guys if they're high on them):

David Wilson
Chris Ivory
Reggie Bush
Darren Sproles
MJD
Ryan Mathews
Rashard Mendenhall
Eddie Lacy
Montee Ball
Leveon Bell
Lamar Miller
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen

But basically, I'd feel a hell of a lot more confident with two guys from the first list as my two starting RB's, as opposed to either two guys from the second list, or one guy from the first list and one guy from the second list. Especially since the odds are good that you're going to have to face on a semi-consistent basis, teams that have two RB's from the first list (the teams in your league that go RB/RB).

Sure, you might lose those weeks against the teams that went RB/RB, yet still have a winning season and make your league's playoffs, but then what do you do when you have to play those same RB/RB teams in Week 1 of the playoffs? And then you beat that team maybe, but then have to play another RB/RB team in Week 2 of the playoffs?

I've never gone RB/RB, I'm the guy that has drafted Calvin Johnson and Gronkowski and Julio Jones in the first two rounds during past seasons, but this year, I do not want to face the situation where I have to square off against two RB's from the first list, without also having two RB's from the first list on my own roster. Just seems like the fastest way to lose a weekly match would be to bet on subpar RB's this year.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#10 whysosaucy

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 03:47 AM

My rb rankings differ from you a bit. Fascinating about ray rice, and I will factor all that info, in, he just pissed me off last year, luckily I drafted AP late in the second which saved me. But i'm in a lot of money leagues and AP didn't fall past the second round in one of my leagues. I think MJD will be fine, and will be a great guy to snag in the 2nd. I already know in one of my leagues, i have the 11th pick so i have been doing a lot of mock drafts and i'm able to get morris with the 11th and with the 14th my choice of forte, mjd,cj2k, gore. Experts have forte rated the highest, and he will have a good year with Trestman, but in order I like mjd,cj2k,gore,and then forte. So that's a good 2 backs to roll with. If I can get either graham or gronk in 3rd round, im doing it. If not I will either get another RB if demarco Murray or a run dmc are still on the board or if not a WR.Wr is so deep, i'll spend the next 3-4 rounds stacking on the best wr's which will be a lot of good one's then worry about picking a qb or two. if i can get romo and vick combo in 8 and 9th round i'm down.

Here is my 7 round mock so far. As u can see i don't value qb's at all. there will be great qb's late in like 8-10th round and if not locker is my backup plan. I like him if my team is stacked around him. I think its crucial to get 2rb's if not 3 in a row in first 2-3 rounds.wr is deep. either gronk or graham in second or if they fall vernon,witten,gonzales in 6th.


1qb,2rb,3wr,1te,1k,1D,Bench,Bench,Bench,Bench,Bench

$=Positive Quality
*=Concern

1.)AP
2.)Foster
3.)Lynch(Pistol$$$)(drafted2ndrndback*)
4.)Doug Martin
5.)Ray Rice
6.)Charles(Maybe Pistol?$)(OLINE*)
7.)Spiller
8.)Alfred Morris
9.)Trent Richardson
10.)McCoy
11.)Calvin(Need 2rb’s*)(wrsodeep*)
12.)S-JAX
2ND
13.)MJD
14.)CJ2K(UpgradedLine$)(Pistol?$)
15.)Frankie G(Pistol$)(Most8inboxlastyear$)
16.) Forte(Trestman$$)(BushDIDLINEUPGRADE?*)
17.)Ridley(Bellicheck,vereen,howisoline**)(GotbetterblockingWR’S$)
18.)Murray
19.)Reggie Bush(80+catches?$$)(Leshoure*)
20.)RunDMC(Backtopowerscheme$$$)
21.)Ryan Matthews(Ifthinkingofrafting,draftlawfirm3-4roundslater)
22.)David Wilson(Bestpassprotection?$$)(Andre**)(2rb’shavecoexistedongiants$)(BRADSHAWGONE$$)(kr?)
23.)Lamar Miller
24.)Ivory(runheavy$$)
3RDROUND
25.)Jimmy Graham
26.)Gronk
27.)Dez
28.)A.J.
29.)Julio
30.)Marsh
31.)Percy
32.)D-THOMAS
33.)Andre
34.)Roddy
35.)Fitz
36.)V-JAX
4THROUND
37.)Cobb(rbcarries$)
38.)VCRUZ(hasballedwithknickandwithout$$)
39.)Crabs(Kaep$$)
40.)Colston(KindofaTEOUTOFslot$$)(Brees$)
41.)Ball

42.)Sproles
43.) Eddie Lacy
44.)BGE(Newspeedback**)(IthinkBGESTILLCARRIESLOAD$$)
45.)Vick Ballard
46.)Mendy(IFHEWINSTARTINGJOB$$)
47.)LevonBell
5THROUND
48.)Aaron Hernadez
59.)WES
60.)Knicks
61.)Amendola
62.)Jordy
63.) Wallace
64.)Knicks
65.)Wayne
66.)SteveSmith
67.)Decker(running3wroffense$$)
68.)BOWE
6THROUND
69.)Jennings(APeffect$$)
70.)D-JAX
71.)Miles(Romo$)
72.)Maclin
73.)AntonioBrown(Bigbendeepball$)
74.)StevieJohnson
75.) James Jones(madtd’s$$)
76.)Tony G
77.)Vernon
78.)JWIT
79.)Garcon
80.)Kenny Britt
81.)Alexander
82.) AndreBrown($$72carries,8TD’S,5.2YPC$)

7TH
83.)Tavon
84.)Torrey
85.) Cecil Shorts
86.)pitta
87.)rudolph
88.)bennet
89.)gates
90.)finley
91.)josh gordon
92.)mikewilliams
93.)Hilton
94.)Ryan Williams(starter?)

#11 whysosaucy

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 04:01 AM

And Alfred Morris after the top 6 is one of the safest RB's in the game for me and is a #1 back. You compared him to MJD, who led the league in rushing that year. So what MJD adds receiving yards, but Alred Morris as a rookie, had a huge season rushing wise. He went off, and ran for as many yards his rookie year as MJD a guy who constantly is picked in the first round before his inury. Morris had 1500 yards, and honestly RG3 is only going to get better along with those wide receivers. Garcon is the truth, and watch out for Josh Morgan. He will get more snaps and impress and he is one of the best run blocking wr's in the league. I think Morris is a lock for 1300 to 16000 yards and 8-12td's with the amount of work he is going to get. He is a lot safer to me then Mccoy or a Trent Richardson who hasn't proved it like Alfred Morris has.

#12 Robrain

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 04:49 AM

And Alfred Morris after the top 6 is one of the safest RB's in the game for me and is a #1 back. You compared him to MJD, who led the league in rushing that year. So what MJD adds receiving yards, but Alred Morris as a rookie, had a huge season rushing wise. He went off, and ran for as many yards his rookie year as MJD a guy who constantly is picked in the first round before his inury. Morris had 1500 yards, and honestly RG3 is only going to get better along with those wide receivers. Garcon is the truth, and watch out for Josh Morgan. He will get more snaps and impress and he is one of the best run blocking wr's in the league. I think Morris is a lock for 1300 to 16000 yards and 8-12td's with the amount of work he is going to get. He is a lot safer to me then Mccoy or a Trent Richardson who hasn't proved it like Alfred Morris has.


I actually like Alfred Morris IF I can guarantee that RGIII comes back 100%, and is used identically to how he was used / ran all of last season. That means, he can't get reigned in like Vick did after his breakout season.

Problem is, I don't think that anyone can come close to guaranteeing that's the case, which is why I can't justify the high pick of Morris. Otherwise I'd love him in the later part of the 1st round, for a fantasy team that obviously didn't get the opportunity to draft a different back like AP, Foster, Ray Rice, etc.

Likewise, for RGIII's passing game, I'm equally concerned about Garcon's foot/toe injury, which he seemingly stupidly did not have surgery on this offseason, and suggested that he'll have to hobble and play hurt the rest of his career. If you said that same thing about Megatron for example, people would be much more afraid of drafting Stafford (and rightly so). The rest of the Redskins WR group did not show very well last season (I'd say that's a big reason RGIII threw for just 3,200 passing yards).

I don't trust Garcon to be healthy or stay healthy honestly. I know they are somewhat different injuries, but I feel it has just as good chance of being a long-term, recurring injury as Ahmad Bradshaw's foot, or Hakeem Nicks injuries last season.

I like McCoy for the same reason I like Vick's potential upside for next season: sheer workload. It's been said that if Chip Kelly's new offense works as planned, they'll likely lead the league in total offensive plays.

Simply put, more offensive plays means more total runs per game, and more total passes per game.

That increases the chances that a single player catches 5 passes each game instead of just 3. That increases the chance that a RB averages 20 carries per game instead of just 15. And the QB...well...he's simply not the positional player that comes out just to take a breather. He's pretty much always on the field. So his stats (passing attempts, as well as rushing attempts) are going to simply be very high. There's a lot to like about that high-tempo offense from a sheer volume standpoint. That's what definitely has all of those players on my radar, and why they should be on everyone else's radar too.

Check this article:

http://webcache.goog...n&gl=us&strip=1

Some choice quotes:

LeSean McCoy isn’t just excited about his personal potential in coach Chip Kelly’s spread offense. He thinks backup Bryce Brown and third-stringer Chris Polk will get plenty of chances to showcase themselves, too.

McCoy, speaking publicly to reporters Thursday for the first time since the end of a tumultuous 2012 season, hinted that Kelly’s laser-paced spread offense wouldn’t just let him pick and choose wide gaps to run between but also create plenty of opportunities for his two backups to move the chains.

After all, if the Eagles function the way Kelly hopes they can, the offense should churn out anywhere between 75 and 100 plays per game.

“You’re going to need another back in this offense,” he said. “This is an offense where it’s not a debate, ‘Oh, I can do it myself,’ because, for one, you’re going to do more plays than any other offense.

“For two, it’s the amount of hits. You’re running so much. You’re constantly going. I think any back, no matter how great of a shape he’s in, you’re going to need some extra help. I know that. Bryce is good enough where he can play. Every team has two good backs.”

“And don’t be surprised if Chris Polk gets some carries, because you’re running so much it’s like a freakin’ track meet. It’s like a relay. You need extra guys.”

I avoided McCoy last season. Just didn't feel really great about him, especially when people were calling him a Top-6 overall pick. But if this offense is the real deal, and they're running that many plays, he's easily in my Top-6 RB's. If they're getting off as many offensive plays as anticipated, it seems that McCoy is a surefire RB1, and Bryce Brown may even be a solid RB2 every week in 12-team leagues. Based solely on volume.


And I'm not sure that McCoy hasn't "proved it". He had a very similar number of combined yards in 2011 compared to Morris combined yards last season. And in PPR, McCoy definitely scored more fantasy points in 2011 than Morris did in 2012.

Heck, even in non-PPR I bet McCoy scored more fantasy points in 2011 than Morris did in 2012. After all, McCoy had 20 total TDs in 2011 (17 rushing, 3 receiving). Morris was pretty great last season, but not that kind of great.

Edited by Robrain, 20 May 2013 - 04:50 AM.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#13 whysosaucy

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 07:50 AM

I see what your saying, but with my stragety if I have a low first round where I will have a choice between Alrfed and Mccoy and I can double up with another top back early in round 2. Alrfed is just way safer. I agree Mccoy probally has the higher upside, but Alred Morris, has a lot going for him. When Shanny finds a back he like, he really finds a back he likes, and gives him a full workload, that zone blocking he had running real well last year is only going to get better, in year 3, also I think the pass game will be improved, and the run heavy game will set up play action, and opportunities for big plays. I don't care what anyone said watching RG3 he has a great arm, he throws a beautiful deep ball. The kids got a cannon and can extend plays. Alfred going to get his carries, run heavy offense, better o line, more continuity in the system, better TE play, they r a grinding team. Also if Morgan starts he could easily be a WR that puts up 800 yards with 6-8td's. He can make plays, and he probally is a top 3 WR blocker in the game right now.


Why i'm hesitant to put MCcoy over Alfred. Well I don't really watch college or follow it. I'm huge into NFL, MLB, but dont mess with the college. Don't really know how chip kelly will. Mccoy was injured, which isnt too concerning, but a slight ding, He is picking up a new system. Bryce Brown is no punk. How many carries will he actually get? He does get a stud left tackle back in Peters, cuz the line was shaky as hell last year, so that is a big plus. Sometimes college coaches fail, what if this season is a mess? What if Vick and Foles can't get it done and the offense suffers? There is just more questions with Mccoy. Trust me i like Mccoy and am hugely intrigued by his upside, but let's say with pick 9-11 in the first and there both on board, I would pull the trigger on Alfred over Mccoy.

#14 RMJ_12

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 12:35 PM

I think this kid is a classic buy-low this year. Everyone's down on him because of RG3, Shananigans, and a sophomore slump. I don't love his lack of involvement in the passing game, but I think he still has about a 1650 yard season with double digit TDs.

how is he a buy-low though? he wont escape the early 2nd round of any draft

#15 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 01:49 PM

I thought there would be more interest in discussing Alfred Morris' fantasy value - what gives? Kinda disappointed in you guys with these short, weak posts....

Morris is one of the toughest players for me to rank for 2013 fantasy value. As I've posted on other recent topics, history strongly suggests that at least one of DMartin, TRich, and/or AMorris will have a bust sophomore season follow-up to their stellar rookie campaign. Logically, everyone assumes that a rookie RB that just had a great season is only going to get better in his 2nd season and, the majority of the time, it just doesn't happen. I wish that I could link the great article that I recently read, which has all the player & stats, but I can't find it. The favorite to disappoint amongst the 3 fab rookie RB has to be AMorris, so I'm initially leery on his 2013 value just for this particular reason.

On the positive side, I believe both Shanahans have compared him to Terrell Davis and both AM & TD's age 24 NFL season's were strikingly similar:

http://www.pro-footb.../M/MorrAl00.htm

http://www.pro-footb.../D/DaviTe00.htm

If AM can come anywhere close to TD's age 25 & 26 seasons, then he'll obviously be an absolute steal after rd 1.

My gut says that AM's either going to be a huge bust or he'll improve upon his 2012 #'s and I can't figure which way it's going to go at this point.

#16 itricks

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 01:17 PM

Do you go with Morris, T Rich, or SJAX at this point? Shanny still makes me nervous with his normal ways and now that Jackson is in ATL i could see him flourish in that offense. I'm still not 100% sold on Richardson because of his injuries... Jackson is probably safest.
10 Team Standard 6Pt Td's 2014
QB- Phillip RIvers
RB- Lesean McCoy
RB- Andre Ellington
WR- Dez Bryant
WR- Antonio Brown
TE- Dennis Pitta
Flex- Joique Bell
D/ST- Texans
K- Adam Vinatieri

Bench:
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Fred Jackson
Vincent Jackson
Carlos Hyde
Justin Hunter
Anquan Boldin

#17 Ryan81

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 01:22 PM

T-Rich, SJax, then Morris.

$50 12 Team PPR, 8-1

QB: Philip Rivers

RB1: Arian Foster

RB2: Ahmad Bradshaw

WR1: Megatron

WR2: Jordy Nelson

W/R/T: Jeremy Maclin

TE: Rob Gronkowski

Bench: Adrian Peterson, Josh Gordon, Shane Vereen, Jeremy Hill, Travis Kelce, Martavis Bryant


#18 Taxman

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 01:40 PM

This guy is Rudi Johnson reincarnated. His td's help tremendously but if he doesn't get one, a hundred yards with no other stats leaves much to be desired.
1st Fantasy pick ever Thurman Thomas #3 Overall. Should have taken Jerry Rice.

#19 rraayy3

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 01:45 PM

This guy is Rudi Johnson reincarnated. His td's help tremendously but if he doesn't get one, a hundred yards with no other stats leaves much to be desired.


Now copy and paste this into the thread of every RB that has ever played in the NFL since fantasy football has existed.

#20 cowbell204

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 01:48 PM

This guy is Rudi Johnson reincarnated. His td's help tremendously but if he doesn't get one, a hundred yards with no other stats leaves much to be desired.


I'll be more than happy to get 100 yards from my RB on weeks he doesn't score.
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