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The 2013 Bust Watch thread


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#1 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:26 AM

The 2013 bust watch is officially on. As we reach Memorial Day shortly, that is 2 months of baseball being played. Eventually patience runs thin and you can only handle so much before you have to move on. My 2013 bust watch list is in and reason for panic or not:

Victor Martinez - Panic Level: High. Has 2 .400+ OBP machines in front of him and is only on pace for 70 RBI's. He looks really slow and really old. His power is basically sapped. I am hanging onto him, but I'd be lying if I said I was not extremely concerned.

Martin Prado - Panic Level: High. Well going to an extreme hitters park did nothing for this guy. He looks like he is going to be just an extremely inconsistent hitter every single season. His BABIP was low, but he just had a low BABIP season 2 years ago. Guys who are horrid hitters and swing at everything like him have a tendency to be extremely inconsistent. Sadly I think that is the path he is taking. I am actively searching for a replacement so I no longer have to start him anymore. Oh, and the 17 SB's were as big a fluke as Rodney's whip last year. Worst base stealer in baseball.

Dan Haren - Panic Level: Moderate. Not as concerned with him as a lot of guys. I have just accepted him for what he is at this point and that is a matchups starter. Not much upside to have an ERA below 4. But should be able to get a bunch of wins being on the Nats, a team that should begin to erupt offensively.

Danny Espinosa - Panic Level: Scorching. Should be owned in 0% of leagues. Get surgery and come back next year Danny. Enough is enough.

David Price - Panic Level: High. On the DL, could explain some of the horrid results. I'd still try and buy low but I would not give up a ton for him.

RA Dickey - Panic Level: Moderate. Welcome to the AL buddy. He is not coming close to last years numbers. And Toronto as a team is a train wreck. If you lower expectations for RA of around a 4 ERA and 1.25 WHIP from this point on you may not be disappointed. If you expect a Cy Young then you may want to go all in on a case of jack daniels.

Matt Kemp - Panic Level: High. The ghost of Frank McCourt has gone in and single handily destroyed the Dodgers. Kemp's power is sapped, and he is no longer much more than a 20 SB threat. Could maybe get to 20-20, but people paid for 40-40. Not happening, not close.

Albert Pujols - Panic Level: Scorching. Hey Albert, I want your real birth certificate please. You look like your 80 out there man! Seriously, this guy is hard to watch. He looks so old. That injury is probably ruining him. But I don't see much hope for a drastic turn around. If he ended with 25 and 90 I'd be happy.

Cole Hamels - Panic Level: Low. This guy is one of my top buy low targets. He has a long sustained track record of excellence. His K rates are coming back up. 3 starts vs. Miami in the last 7 and 0 wins though. He won't be getting many wins this year, but from this point on I could see him being a top 10 ERA, WHIP, and borderline K guy.

Starlin Castro - Panic Level: ZZZ. He doesn't even get a panic level, I fell asleep looking at his stats. My least favorite player in the league so its probably not fair I give a prediction on him.

BJ Upton - Panic Level: High. He sucks. He got paid. Could easily see a sub .200 season from him. Could easily see him hit .400 from this point forward. Another lacksadasical loser that you never know what you will get. I avoid guys like him like the plauge.

Ike Davis - Panic Level: Scorching. Fork. Stuck. Done. He is toast. Such a horrid hitter.



I took the top 100 draft picks and combined them into this write up. If anyone else has any they want to add to the list. As of now I'd say my top buy low targets are Hamels and maybe Kemp because I think he has some sort of big hot streak in him (although his overall totals will probably be boring). I'm not super exciting about pursuing any of the other guys on the list for anything over than lower level roster fill ins.

#2 GoldenBoy

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:37 AM

Josh Hamilton? Hit .259 in the 2nd half last year and has carried that over with a stellar .222 average thus far this season. I'd put the panic meter at a 6 or 7 if I owned him right now.

#3 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:39 AM

Josh Hamilton? Hit .259 in the 2nd half last year and has carried that over with a stellar .222 average thus far this season. I'd put the panic meter at a 6 or 7 if I owned him right now.


Good one. I'd put reason for panic high on him. The Angels are a team are a wreck. LA baseball has fallen flat on its face. 400 million of payroll for 2 teams that may not crack .500 lol.

#4 DK64MASTER

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:42 AM

Hosmer, Espinosa, Ichiro (reaching on that one)

#5 doog71

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:44 AM

Jason Heyward: panic level LOW. Go get him while you still can.
10-team mixed ESPN league

C-Santana
1B-Rizzo
2B-D. Gordon
3B-Beltre
2B/SS-Rendon
1B/3B-V. Martinez
OF-Gomez
OF-Puig
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OF-Pence
U-Brantley
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SP-Kershaw/Teheran/Latos/Kazmir/Wheeler/Arrieta/Fiers
RP-Janssen/Casilla/Doolittle/Jansen/Feliz

Cap'n Geech & Shrimp Shack Shooters league 10-team mixed Champion 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

#6 vthunder

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:44 AM

I have Martinez and Prado on my bench and Hamilton in my lineup. So my panic level is pretty high, lol.

#7 rraayy3

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:47 AM

Dickey has been good his last few starts and was pitching hurt until recently - but I know it's fun to say "Welcome to the AL".

#8 96mnc

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:51 AM


Josh Hamilton? Hit .259 in the 2nd half last year and has carried that over with a stellar .222 average thus far this season. I'd put the panic meter at a 6 or 7 if I owned him right now.


Good one. I'd put reason for panic high on him. The Angels are a team are a wreck. LA baseball has fallen flat on its face. 400 million of payroll for 2 teams that may not crack .500 lol.


I think Jham is slowly turning it around and making subtle adjustments that will allow him to be more successful, specifically taking the ball to the opposite field.

Konerko should be on this list somewhere. Was he not a top 100 draft pick?

#9 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:51 AM

Dickey has been good his last few starts and was pitching hurt until recently - but I know it's fun to say "Welcome to the AL".


6 BB's his last 2 starts. On pace for 100 BB's on the season. He had 54 walks the last 2 seasons. His control has been horrid all season now for 2 months. Not buying a big turnaround.

Edited by Cmilne23, 22 May 2013 - 10:52 AM.


#10 phillyloveslee

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:59 AM

Albert Pujols - Panic Level: Scorching. Hey Albert, I want your real birth certificate please. You look like your 80 out there man! Seriously, this guy is hard to watch. He looks so old. That injury is probably ruining him. But I don't see much hope for a drastic turn around. If he ended with 25 and 90 I'd be happy.

I don't disagree with Pujols on the list, moreso the fact you have him at scorching, and Kemp only at high - Pujols is on pace for 25 HRs, 97 RBIs, and 82 Rs - not great numbers, but considering Kemp is on pace for 7 HRs, 60 RBIs, and 75 Rs, I'd be much more concerned with him. Pujols with definitely hit his numbers in the end, but not much more than that.

#11 Sprayy

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 11:06 AM

Yeah Konerko is an absolute mess right now. I drafted him well above his orank and still got screwed.
12 team 5x5 rotoworld, year 2/4
C: Wilson Ramos
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Kolton Wong
SS: Jason Villar
3B: Josh Donaldson
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jason Heyward
OF: Alex Rios
UTIL: Kyle Seager

Bench: , Adam Lind, Rajai Davis

SP: Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Archer, Ervin Santna, Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer
RP: , Tommy Hunter, Zach Britton, Matt Lindstrom, Sean Doolittle, Jim Johnson, Jennry Mejia, Bryan Shaw, Ernesto Frieri

DL: Mark Trumbo, Jason Kipnis,
RIP Jose Fernandez, Matt Moore

#12 Lockout King

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 11:11 AM

BJ Upton - Nuff Said....

#13 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 11:18 AM


Albert Pujols - Panic Level: Scorching. Hey Albert, I want your real birth certificate please. You look like your 80 out there man! Seriously, this guy is hard to watch. He looks so old. That injury is probably ruining him. But I don't see much hope for a drastic turn around. If he ended with 25 and 90 I'd be happy.

I don't disagree with Pujols on the list, moreso the fact you have him at scorching, and Kemp only at high - Pujols is on pace for 25 HRs, 97 RBIs, and 82 Rs - not great numbers, but considering Kemp is on pace for 7 HRs, 60 RBIs, and 75 Rs, I'd be much more concerned with him. Pujols with definitely hit his numbers in the end, but not much more than that.


I see Kemp getting better as the season goes on. He is still in his prime. Coming off shoulder surgery he is probably slow to find his form and should get better as time goes on. Albert looks really old and gimpy. I can't see a huge turnaround unless he finds a fountain of youth. Moreso just an eye test of watching both players.

#14 Flacco2Rice

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 12:19 PM

Mike Moustakas - Scorching
Jesus Montero - Beyond belief scorching
12 Team AL-ONLY, 5x5 Roto

C-Salvador Perez
1B - EDWIN ENCARNACION
2B - Howie Kendrick
SS - Jed Lowrie
3B - Evan Longoria
OF - Kole Calhoun, Adam Eaton,  Chris Carter, Colby Rasmus, Chris Taylor
UT - CHRIS DAVIS
DH - Albert Pujols

SP - Weaver, Kuroda, Miguel Gonzalez, Drew Hutchinson, Stroman, Danny Salazar, Yohan Pino, Shane Greene, Holland(DL)
RP - McGee, Koji, Street, Andrew Miller

#15 Travis Burten

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 12:34 PM

I think V-Mart turn it around.....300-10-80?

#16 mjk356

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 01:14 PM

I wouldn't be shocked if Davis or Upton don't turn it around. Those are the two I would be genuinely concerned about. Obviously, Espinosa looks terrible and is battling shoulder issues, so I'm not optimistic on him either. Davis turned it around last year, but the approach is so horrid. You have to wonder at what point these epically awful starts wear him down mentally. You can't bank on a guy with a brutal approach just magically turning it around every year.

Upton has been the Christina Hendricks of baseball so far this season. Just extraordinarily busty. He has a real Adam Dunn/Alex Rios 2011 feel to me. Also, the Greg Walker factor looms large. He'll make you think he's back with the occasional bomb or stolen base, but then go on another 1-25 bender. It's also a bad, bad sign when a guy is talking about trying to make significant mechanical changes during the season, which BJ and Walker have mentioned.

I think Moustakas and Montero are a couple of guys who will probably get sent down at some point. I've come to the conclusion that Moustakas might just be terrible. Ike Davis probably should get sent down, but the Mets give him an incredible amount of rope. They treat the guy like a future Hall of Famer.

Edited by mjk356, 22 May 2013 - 01:14 PM.


#17 micyukcha

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 01:16 PM

I have 7 guys on the initial list.

Fawk.

#18 Mikewastaken

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 01:20 PM

Has Brett Anderson even been healthy enough to qualify for bust status?
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SP: Waino/Minor/Gray/Archer/Masterson/Wheeler/Peralta/Smyly | RP: Perkins/Soria | Minors: Bryant/Gausman

#19 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 01:25 PM

Has Brett Anderson even been healthy enough to qualify for bust status?


He was drafted fairly late in most formats. So hard to call him a bust. More of a disappointment.

#20 AnonymousRob

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 01:26 PM

Upton has been the Christina Hendricks of baseball so far this season. Just extraordinarily busty.

We should be so lucky.

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