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Kris Bryant - 3B CHC


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#961 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 23 February 2015 - 05:12 PM

 

It's just crazy that people think the Cubs are going to give up 15-20M for 2 to 3 weeks of Bryant.

 

Not when you phrase it like that, but that is a distortion of the facts.

 

 

Fair enough, but let's crystallize the issue:

 

1.  If they wait 2-3 weeks (13+ days, but to avoid MLBPA from filing a grievance, most teams go the 3 weeks so as to not look blatantly obvious), the Cubs get 1 more year of service time - down the road, when Bryant will presumably be a star player (or at the least, a very good player).   Now, those guys would be getting paid in arbitration - so the difference wouldn't be 15-20M for the 3-week gambit.  It's the extra year of control they'd be looking to get, and if he's a mega-star, that matters a lot (but in arbitration, the gap between his 1st year of FA and 4th year of arbitration wouldn't be that huge).

 

2.  The 20M+ number comes into play if the Cubbies decide to play the Super-2 arbitration delay game - but in order to do that, they likely have to go at least to mid-June (the date changes each year, it's whatever keeps you out of the top 22 percent of MLBPA players with 2+ years service time <but less than 3>in 2017).    That's where the 20M difference comes into play, because you delay arbitration by 1 year, and then each year after that works off the prior year salary.

 

So in 2017, when Bryant would be making the 500K league minimum, arbitration would give a top 100 bat at least 7-8M, and a star 10M+.  So that's 10M.   Then instead of 10M in 2018, he gets 14M.  That's another 4M.  In 2019, instead of 14M, he gets 18M - you get the idea.   So it's easy to see in a mega-star, the difference would easily be 20M+.  But that's ONLY if they avoid Super-2.  If they just get the extra year difference, they save some $, but not nearly as much - because arbitration is where the paydays start happening, and the 3-week delay wouldn't change when they start - they'd just add a 4th year where the team wouldn't have to pay him before FA (but year 4 arbitration would be pretty close for that year alone vs. FA).

 

All of that said - keeping Bryant down for 3 weeks is a business no-brainer, because even a star player can likely only win 1-2 extra games in a 15-16 game period (what most teams will play in the first 3 weeks).  Some teams would rather take no chances and start him from Day 1 (like the Giants and Tigers) - it's just not clear what the Cubs will do, since past history has shown they do consider these things (not to an absolute, like PIT or Tampa, but it does matter).

 

If you had me to peg it, I think it's a 95+% chance he misses the first 3 weeks.  What's more telling is whether CHC will play the service time game for Super-2 avoidance.  I would be really upset as a Cubs fan given the long wait to relevance, the signing of Lester, and the perception that their window for contention is now opening.   You can never tell when your best chance to win will come - I don't think it's enough to justify an Opening Day assignment if you have to wait only 3 weeks (or a little less, depending on how much you want to risk a MLBPA grievance), but a Super-2 delay would be a significant reduction in their chances, given it would be 2/5th of the season. 


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#962 brockpapersizer

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Posted 23 February 2015 - 05:18 PM

Yeah when I said "LaStella starting at 3rd bodes well for Bryant" I'm still assuming he sits the requisite 2-3 weeks to maintain the additional year. There is no justification for not doing that. 

 

For fantasy, this will only help deflate his ADP and make him a better value.  Nobody should be complaining about this.

 

3b is pretty deep anyway. You wont have a problem finding a guy for 2-3 weeks if you think Bryant is going to be a stud this year.


Edited by brockpapersizer, 23 February 2015 - 05:19 PM.

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#963 Picard56

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Posted 23 February 2015 - 05:21 PM

 

It's just crazy that people think the Cubs are going to give up 15-20M for 2 to 3 weeks of Bryant.

 

Not when you phrase it like that, but that is a distortion of the facts.

 

 

What are the facts then? Everything posted here is just speculative. How long does he need to stay in the minors so the Cubs get another year of control? Some people have only said 2-3 weeks. Others have said til May or June.... 

 

I'm willing to bet he starts off in the minors because as much as the cubs have improved this past off season, they may not make the post season. Cards still have a very solid pitching staff and the Pirates seem to make a run too every year. The Cubs front office probably knows that they are still a year or two away from making a world series run. After Lester and Arrieta the staff is blah. And the younger hitters still need to go through growing pains and mature. This is all coming from a life long Cubs fan.


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#964 blinkfan77

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Posted 23 February 2015 - 09:37 PM

The blatantly obvious best thing for the Cubs is to call him up a few weeks into the season.  Problem is, it isn't just "bah, screw it, keep him down for a 3rd week, now there won't be a grievance!", because what happens when his bat and more importantly for this specific matter HIS GLOVE do the talking in Spring Training? It's all of a sudden not so easy to just say "we'll stick him in AAA for a month and then call him up" considering his one flaw could improve enough to keep him. Now what happens when you do send him down regardless of him having a good Spring showing? No matter when he's called up, the extra year of control will inevitably be cited. Now it's a no win situation.

 

Of course this is all a fairly big reach (improving his Defense)...especially since the Cubs can now say "we're gonna send him down to work on his OF play" since he'll be practicing that in Spring.

 

I think it's good for everyone to recognize that the most likely and prudent scenario is having him start the year in Iowa...BUT, he's good enough to make that idea go out the window in March. Lets just pray that his mojo from last year didn't fade in the offseason.


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SS. Rollins
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#965 Tryptamine

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Posted 23 February 2015 - 11:11 PM

 

 

It's just crazy that people think the Cubs are going to give up 15-20M for 2 to 3 weeks of Bryant.

 

Not when you phrase it like that, but that is a distortion of the facts.

 

 

Fair enough, but let's crystallize the issue:

 

1.  If they wait 2-3 weeks (13+ days, but to avoid MLBPA from filing a grievance, most teams go the 3 weeks so as to not look blatantly obvious), the Cubs get 1 more year of service time - down the road, when Bryant will presumably be a star player (or at the least, a very good player).   Now, those guys would be getting paid in arbitration - so the difference wouldn't be 15-20M for the 3-week gambit.  It's the extra year of control they'd be looking to get, and if he's a mega-star, that matters a lot (but in arbitration, the gap between his 1st year of FA and 4th year of arbitration wouldn't be that huge).

 

It's not 4th year arbitration vs FA, it's 1 year of Pre-arb vs FA. By bringing him up immediately it's essentially giving up a year of cheap control. In order to rebuy that one year, the Cubs would have to purchase one of his FA years which is likely to cost 15-20M. So you could either have him sit for three weeks and control him until after the 2021 season ends with 3 years of pre-arb and 4 years of arbitration(Super 2) or you bring him up immediately and in order to keep him until 2021, you go 2 years pre-arb,4 years of arbitration and 1 year of free agency. Long story short, what I'm saying is that to hold him until after 2021 under both scenarios will be a 15-20M difference depending on if they chose to bring him up immediately or wait 3 weeks.

 

Also, for those who are still unsure. The Cubs must wait roughly 3 weeks in order to guarantee that Bryant will be under contract until after 2021.If they bring him up immediately they will only control him until the 2020 season is over. He would still be a super 2 which means 2 years of pre-arb and 4 years of arbitration. In order to avoid super 2 status,which would mean 3 years of pre-arb and 3 years of arbitration, they would have to keep him down until the later half of June.


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#966 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 24 February 2015 - 06:59 AM

 

 

 

It's just crazy that people think the Cubs are going to give up 15-20M for 2 to 3 weeks of Bryant.

 
Not when you phrase it like that, but that is a distortion of the facts.
 
Fair enough, but let's crystallize the issue:
 
1.  If they wait 2-3 weeks (13+ days, but to avoid MLBPA from filing a grievance, most teams go the 3 weeks so as to not look blatantly obvious), the Cubs get 1 more year of service time - down the road, when Bryant will presumably be a star player (or at the least, a very good player).   Now, those guys would be getting paid in arbitration - so the difference wouldn't be 15-20M for the 3-week gambit.  It's the extra year of control they'd be looking to get, and if he's a mega-star, that matters a lot (but in arbitration, the gap between his 1st year of FA and 4th year of arbitration wouldn't be that huge).
 
It's not 4th year arbitration vs FA, it's 1 year of Pre-arb vs FA. By bringing him up immediately it's essentially giving up a year of cheap control. In order to rebuy that one year, the Cubs would have to purchase one of his FA years which is likely to cost 15-20M. So you could either have him sit for three weeks and control him until after the 2021 season ends with 3 years of pre-arb and 4 years of arbitration(Super 2) or you bring him up immediately and in order to keep him until 2021, you go 2 years pre-arb,4 years of arbitration and 1 year of free agency. Long story short, what I'm saying is that to hold him until after 2021 under both scenarios will be a 15-20M difference depending on if they chose to bring him up immediately or wait 3 weeks.
 
Also, for those who are still unsure. The Cubs must wait roughly 3 weeks in order to guarantee that Bryant will be under contract until after 2021.If they bring him up immediately they will only control him until the 2020 season is over. He would still be a super 2 which means 2 years of pre-arb and 4 years of arbitration. In order to avoid super 2 status,which would mean 3 years of pre-arb and 3 years of arbitration, they would have to keep him down until the later half of June.


That's incorrect - http://www.fangraphs...ness/super-two/

Super-2 ensures that Bryant would get arbitration after his third MLB season - it's 2 years PLUS extra service time that puts you in the top 22 percent of MLB players with less than 3 years (but more than 2) that gets Super-2 status.

Immediate callup Opening Day

Year 1 - min wage, 1 full year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1 full year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 1 full year service time (now at 3 years)
Year 4-6 - arb eligible. (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 7 - FA

Delay callup by 3 weeks (say this is 0.90 service time)

Year 1 - min wage, 0.85 year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1.85 year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 2.85 full year service time (will be in top 22 percent of MLB players)
Year 4-6 - arb eligible (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 7 - Arb eligible but still under team control.
Year 8 - FA

Delay callup by 2.5 - 3 months to get below top 22 percent by end of 2017 season (about 0.5 year)

Year 1 - min wage, 0.5 year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1.5 year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 2.5 year service time (below top 22 percent)
Year 4 - min wage, still not arbitration eligible (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 5-7 - arb. Eligible

Super 2 avoidance is the big $ saver - 3 weeks delay isn't a big money saver (FIXED) because it's the 4th year arbitration vs. 1st FA year. Hope that helps.


Edited by RotoRaysfan, 24 February 2015 - 01:54 PM.
Area clarified in italics

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#967 Slatykamora

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Posted 24 February 2015 - 09:06 AM

 



That's incorrect - http://www.fangraphs...ness/super-two/

Super-2 ensures that Bryant would get arbitration after his third MLB season - it's 2 years PLUS extra service time that puts you in the top 22 percent of MLB players with less than 3 years (but more than 2) that gets Super-2 status.

Immediate callup Opening Day

Year 1 - min wage, 1 full year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1 full year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 1 full year service time (now at 3 years)
Year 4-6 - arb eligible. (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 7 - FA

Delay callup by 3 weeks (say this is 0.90 service time)

Year 1 - min wage, 0.85 year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1.85 year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 2.85 full year service time (will be in top 22 percent of MLB players)
Year 4-6 - arb eligible (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 7 - Arb eligible but still under team control.
Year 8 - FA

Delay callup by 2.5 - 3 months to get below top 22 percent by end of 2017 season (about 0.5 year)

Year 1 - min wage, 0.5 year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1.5 year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 2.5 year service time (below top 22 percent)
Year 4 - min wage, still not arbitration eligible (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 5-7 - arb. Eligible

Super 2 avoidance is the big $ saver - 3 weeks delay isn't because it's the 4th year arbitration vs. 1st FA year. Hope that helps.

 

You just laid it our yourself

 

Called up right now

Year 7 = FA

 

Called up in 3 weeks

Year 7= Arb 4

 

Called up after Super 2

Year 7 = Arb 3

 

Now i'm starting to get confused. Now the difference between an FA year and Arb 4 isn't 20 Mil. Since an Arb 4 player of Bryant's Caliber is going to command a good sum to start. (Assuming he is who we think he is..and doesn't flop)


Edited by Slatykamora, 24 February 2015 - 09:07 AM.


#968 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 24 February 2015 - 01:53 PM

 

 



That's incorrect - http://www.fangraphs...ness/super-two/

Super-2 ensures that Bryant would get arbitration after his third MLB season - it's 2 years PLUS extra service time that puts you in the top 22 percent of MLB players with less than 3 years (but more than 2) that gets Super-2 status.

Immediate callup Opening Day

Year 1 - min wage, 1 full year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1 full year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 1 full year service time (now at 3 years)
Year 4-6 - arb eligible. (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 7 - FA

Delay callup by 3 weeks (say this is 0.90 service time)

Year 1 - min wage, 0.85 year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1.85 year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 2.85 full year service time (will be in top 22 percent of MLB players)
Year 4-6 - arb eligible (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 7 - Arb eligible but still under team control.
Year 8 - FA

Delay callup by 2.5 - 3 months to get below top 22 percent by end of 2017 season (about 0.5 year)

Year 1 - min wage, 0.5 year service time.
Year 2 - min wage, 1.5 year service time.
Year 3 - min wage, 2.5 year service time (below top 22 percent)
Year 4 - min wage, still not arbitration eligible (each year more expensive with escalating salary)
Year 5-7 - arb. Eligible

Super 2 avoidance is the big $ saver - 3 weeks delay isn't because it's the 4th year arbitration vs. 1st FA year. Hope that helps.

 

You just laid it our yourself

 

Called up right now

Year 7 = FA

 

Called up in 3 weeks

Year 7= Arb 4

 

Called up after Super 2

Year 7 = Arb 3

 

Now i'm starting to get confused. Now the difference between an FA year and Arb 4 isn't 20 Mil. Since an Arb 4 player of Bryant's Caliber is going to command a good sum to start. (Assuming he is who we think he is..and doesn't flop)

 

 

Sorry meant to say 3 weeks isn't a 15-20M difference because it's Year 4 arbitration vs. 1st year FA.   Fixed now.  But you get the point - 3 weeks gets you an extra year of control, the $ saved isn't nearly that much.  Super-2 delay is what gets the huge money savings, because Year 4 is still min. wage, and Years 5-7 are 1 year behind in pay scale (lots of $ saved Year 4, and then an incremental amount since following years work off base salary from the prior year).


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#969 And Won

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 09:47 AM

Can we talk about whether or not he'll be converted to OF?

 

Any thoughts or information on what his position will be with the Cubs this year and in their plans for the future?


Edited by The Harsh, 27 February 2015 - 10:04 AM.
Removed BC content.

Wake up.


#970 Picard56

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 10:27 AM

Can we talk about whether or not he'll be converted to OF?

 

Any thoughts or information on what his position will be with the Cubs this year and in their plans for the future?

 

I believe all the information that is out there is that Bryant will work in the outfield a little bit this spring training. other than that we're just in wait and see mode. 


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#971 jspeco9

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 10:42 PM

http://www.cbssports...-of-kris-bryant

 

Hopefully this will help. 



#972 Picard56

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Posted 28 February 2015 - 12:08 AM

http://www.cbssports...-of-kris-bryant

 

Hopefully this will help. 

 

If he's as good as he has been playing in the minors, looks like he could be the next 300 million dollar man. Luckily the Cubs have basically an endless payroll.


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