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Matt Ryan 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 Shake

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 06:26 PM

I didn't see any topics posted on him for this season so here goes.

I'm wondering if anyone else besides myself sees a possible regression yards wise this season. It seems like he had a career year last year in all categories and to me that usually signifies the next year wont be as good. His yards per game jumped from 261.1 in 2011 to 294.9 in 2012. I just don't see him being a consistent 290 passing yards per game QB from season to season, seems more like 275 or so.

I know that doesn't seem like much, but he was only barely top 5 last year (in some scoring settings) despite having thrown for over 290 yards per game, so with a possible regression that's bound to push him down to around top 7-8. With Steven Jackson in the mix, I'd like to think they run a little more than last season as well, but I could be wrong.

I liken this to how many people were all over drafting Eli Manning in 2012, due to his 2011 numbers (a career year by the way) and then he went out and had a down year in comparison to the previous year. Not saying Ryan will be bad, just not as good.

Discuss.

Edited by Shake, 10 June 2013 - 06:30 PM.


#2 Topgun

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 06:36 PM

I hope not, just completed a trade for him today. Is it possible, yes, probable, I don't think so.
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#3 green

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 06:43 PM

I think he'll probably have pretty similar numbers next year.  It's a little worrying that he had a career year in attempts, completion %, TDs, and even rushing yards, but I think Julio Jones is responsible for some of those increases and will be responsible for keeping them higher than they were in 2008-2010.

That said, I don't really like him where he's currently be drafted.  I don't think there's all that much room for improvement, and he's still being drafted pretty high.  If I'm going to skip the elite QBs I'd rather wait longer instead of drafting Ryan the same round that Cam is going in.  If I waited on QB and he fell I would be fine grabbing him, and he has fallen in some mocks I've done.

#4 Jason497

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 07:10 PM

I pretty much agree that the attempts and yards probably come down a little, but not a significant amount. Something like 4300-4400 yards sounds about right with the same number of touchdowns. I still think he'll have about 580 attempts or so, Julio/White/Gonzo and those backs are too good of passing weapons to just get all conservative all of a sudden.

Matty Ice/Redman had 4365 passing in 2011 while his RBs went for 402 carries, no reason SJax and Ryan can't both flourish.

Edited by Jason497, 10 June 2013 - 07:13 PM.


#5 egomaniac247

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 08:24 PM

I'm actually seeing him drafted low - which is probably why I'll end up with him.

I'm seeing folks draft Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Cam, and Brady before him...and since the mock drafts I'm doing usually have those guys going in the 2nd, I'm seeing Ryan drop into the 4th.

I think if he's there in the mid-to-late 4th, I'm going to take him.  I think after Ryan, the possibility for 30 TD's goes down with QB's like Kaep, Wilson, Griffin, Luck, Romo, etc.   Stafford could go for 30 TD's or he could get hurt....

So Ryan is the last "safe play semi-elite" fantasy QB I see.  It all depends on how the first 3 rounds go for me as to whether or not I'd take him in the 4th or wait for one of those other guys.

#6 FFCollusion

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 09:18 PM

Ryan had a career year last year, and his PPG was 6th, which is only 1.2 higher than the 10th place QB.  Stafford, Romo, RG3 and Luck are all being drafted 1-5 rounds after Ryan and within that same margin. (RG3 was actually 5th)
If someone wants Ryan due to his safety and reliability, then I have no qualms with that.  Personally, I just don't think it makes sense 'value wise' to draft him that much earlier, than guys that he most likely won't outpace by any noticeable margin, assuming he outpaces them at all.
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#7 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 09:52 PM

I don't necessarily see his production regressing this season. He had career numbers but he's grown as a QB and had his best offense ever. With the addition of Steven Jackson, I actually feel like he could feasibly perform better this season as they'll likely supplement the run with the short passing game more often than they have in the past with Turner not being a proficient receiver.

After the consensus top 5 QBs, Ryan might be the next best available but like the previous post says, I'd have a hard time selecting him that high when there are another half dozen or so QBs who could produce in the same neighborhood as Ryan this season. Quality QBs run incredibly deep this year.

#8 PPolanco

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 10:30 AM

losing linemen left and right..

A league source confirmed to ESPN's Adam Schefter that Falcons RT Mike Johnson's left ankle dislocation and fibula fracture is season ending.

He'll have surgery next week. The injury occurred during Atlanta's intersquad practice with the Bengals, which will be featured on next week'sHard Knocks. Lamar Holmes and UDFA Ryan Schraeder are next up on the Falcons' depth chart at right tackle. The position is up for grabs after Tyson Clabo's release.

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#9 alexcuse

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Posted 23 August 2013 - 10:19 AM

How's Matt Ryan doing in the preseason?  Should we be concerned with above post of him losing linemen left and right?  Does it matter that there is a new starting center?  How has big changes to OL rosters affected other fantasy QB's in previous seasons?
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#10 Jason497

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Posted 23 August 2013 - 11:01 AM

View Postalexcuse, on 23 August 2013 - 10:19 AM, said:

How's Matt Ryan doing in the preseason?  Should we be concerned with above post of him losing linemen left and right?  Does it matter that there is a new starting center?  How has big changes to OL rosters affected other fantasy QB's in previous seasons?

He'll probably be ok...I mean, I know I am comparing him to the best QB in the league (arguably), but Rodgers is elite and his line is hot garbage. Romo's line is hot garbage too and he's ok. Ryan might be more susceptible to getting hurt though.

Edited by Jason497, 23 August 2013 - 11:01 AM.


#11 soxallday6

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 01:05 AM

4800+ yards , 37+ tds, BOOK IT. hes getting slept on

#12 sfdevil

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 01:54 AM

View PostJason497, on 23 August 2013 - 11:01 AM, said:

View Postalexcuse, on 23 August 2013 - 10:19 AM, said:

How's Matt Ryan doing in the preseason?  Should we be concerned with above post of him losing linemen left and right?  Does it matter that there is a new starting center?  How has big changes to OL rosters affected other fantasy QB's in previous seasons?

He'll probably be ok...I mean, I know I am comparing him to the best QB in the league (arguably), but Rodgers is elite and his line is hot garbage. Romo's line is hot garbage too and he's ok. Ryan might be more susceptible to getting hurt though.
I dont know, imo rodgers is really the only one out of elite real life qbs (so far, I wouldnt consider RG3, wilson or kaep elite yet for obvious reasons and I dont think ben is quite elite)who can make up for crappy pass pro because of his mobility (and his throwing on the run is the second best Ive seen next to only montana, and barely behind tbh)

ryan isnt completely a statue, but hes closer to one than not. Id keep this situation in mind.

#13 Gamblor

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 11:17 AM

Been a while since this has been updated.  Through five games, Ryan's on pace for 5,277 yards, 32 TDs and 10 INTs.

Any chance he keeps up this pace?

#14 Triffid

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 12:30 PM

So, assuming Jones & White are out.... how much does that effect Matt Ryans value?  Worth finding another option?
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#15 dzemens

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 12:34 PM

View PostTriffid, on 08 October 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

So, assuming Jones & White are out.... how much does that effect Matt Ryans value?  Worth finding another option?

Huge downgrade. Id give him a significant downgrade even if White is back and Jones is out. Jones is by far their best player.
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#16 Rather B. Winning

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 12:35 PM

View PostTriffid, on 08 October 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

So, assuming Jones & White are out.... how much does that effect Matt Ryans value?  Worth finding another option?

I think it's devastating for Ryan owners.  See what losing burleson and Calvin's injuries did to stafford.  Waiter, check please!
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#17 BurgundyBooger

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 12:43 PM

Matt Ryan is done, Atlanta is done, and Mike Smith is done.

#18 PPolanco

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 01:03 PM

OMG this sucks!!! His value was from his elite supporting cast and his upside was already not the same as the other qb1's, he was just the "safe" option with a high floor.

Well, the supporting cast is gone. Without WR's I'm now expecting around 250 yards a week, more INT's and fewer TD's. So screwed in 2qb leagues; nothing better available. If I were in a standard league I would definitely bench him!
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#19 Sine_cera

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 01:17 PM

The only way for Ryan to stay Fantasy relevant is if they can get their running game going. If they can do that it will make opposing defenses respect the run much more. Right now everyone knows the OL is bad so they focus on the passing game. But that's a big IF though that they can fix their OL issues, even with S-Jax back.

Edited by Sine_cera, 08 October 2013 - 01:17 PM.

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#20 Shredded

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 01:20 PM

Still a passing offense. If roddy can get back healthy Ryan should still post similar numbers




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