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Does Everyone Do This?


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#1 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:41 AM

It seems like everywhere I look (this board, the "experts", etc.) people tout a guy who as an add has just turned in a really solid stretch of stats (i.e. he's "hot"). However, most of the time the player is added at the tail end of the hot streak; the manager adding the player ends up absorbing the regression to the mean and ends up dropping the player after getting nothing from him (in fact, he ends up hurting the manager).

Am I overthinking things? I'm so scared (well, not really) of picking up a guy and watching him immediately go 4 for his next 42 or get blown up in his first start on my team.

#2 ballfan4141

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:47 AM

that's why I am not picking up bj upton today.

#3 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:51 AM

Honestly the touts are generally worthless in my league. The guy is already gone or, as you pointed out, the lion's share of the production from his hot streak has already passed. I touted Ibanez several weeks ago but only after he'd hit like 5HRs in 9 games and then I'm sure he didn't hit any after that. You usually just have to take a gamble on a slumping player and hope it pays off.

#4 Rabbit Maranville

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:52 AM

It seems like everywhere I look (this board, the "experts", etc.) people tout a guy who as an add has just turned in a really solid stretch of stats (i.e. he's "hot"). However, most of the time the player is added at the tail end of the hot streak; the manager adding the player ends up absorbing the regression to the mean and ends up dropping the player after getting nothing from him (in fact, he ends up hurting the manager).

Am I overthinking things? I'm so scared (well, not really) of picking up a guy and watching him immediately go 4 for his next 42 or get blown up in his first start on my team.


I have noticed this many times as well. I think the trick is to really watch as many games as you can -- MLB.TV is the best hundo you will ever spend if you are a baseball fan. That way, you can key in on the aforementioned hot streaks way before the fantasy writers (they're not experts, they're writers) take notice.

Just about every player goes through hot/cold stretches. If you can get on board at the beginning of these, you will crush your competition.

Most of the time, from what I've noticed, a player will first start to see the ball much better i.e. you'll see more line drives, better contact, improved plate discipline, etc. If this guy is streaky, that's when you buy. Many times, a HR binge will be on its way. This is what happened with Mitch Moreland earlier in the season-- he started to look just much better at the plate in late April/ early May, I bought, and he OPS'ed 1.000 for my team until he got hurt.

Not tryna brag, just tryna provide an example. Perhaps we should have a "Who's heating up?" thread to track potential hot streaks.
7-team Dynasty H2H
------------------------------
C- Ossee Schreckengost
1B- Hee-Seop Choi
2B- Bo Hart
3B- Doug Strange
SS- Matt Stairs
OF- Quinton McCracken
OF- Nemo Leibold
OF- William Beane
UTIL- Kevin Young
BN- Tony Womack, Abner Dalrymple
SP- Luis Tiant, Dustin Nippert, Rick Ankiel, Charles Radbourn, Bea Arthur, Bob Walk
RP- Mike Fetters, The Hamburglar, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Table

DL- Mark Prior

#5 lubs

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:54 AM

It is the common reality of a tout to end up back on the wire. Unless you're lucky, most available players on hot streaks don't turn into players that are serviceable all year. Not knowing how long a streak might last, they may still have some value. I carried Yuniesky Betancourt and David DeJesus through some injuries with no regrets. It's also nice to have a go to guy to drop when a player you perceive as higher value comes along. There are the fortunate times when a guy was worth the add long term. Daniel Nava comes to mind for me this season.

Fantasy, like betting, can be stressful. But it's all a part of the fun. There are no guarantees in either, but being in the right headspace helps. To me that means a bit of stress and pressure, filtering the rights thoughts, and not forcing decisions but acting when prudent.

10 Team non-PPR, Return yard, Keep 5, $125 FAAB, IDP

QB: Russell Wilson

RB(2): DeMarco Murray (K), Marshawn Lynch
WR(3): Julio Jones (K), Jarvis Landry, Jordan Matthews
TE: Jason Witten (K)
Flex(3): Lamar Miller, Mark IngramDaniel Herron

DL(2): JJ Watt (K), DeMarcus Ware
LB(2): Chad Greenway, Curtis Lofton
DB(4): Antrel Rolle, Reshad Jones, TJ Ward, Charles Woodson
K: Steven Hauschka
HC: Seattle Seahawks
Bench(7): Jordan Cameron, Mark Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Harry Douglas, James Starks, Donte Moncrief, Stedman Bailey

IR(3): Jerod Mayo, Tyler Eifert, Jerick McKinnon


#6 nickalero99

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:56 AM

It is true that guys go on streaks and you don't want to pick someone up because of numbers they have already put up. That said, how do you know how long a streak is or whether there has been improvement that lead to said streak. A lot of people rushed to sell Bautista high a few years ago or Trout last year. They made poor decisions in all likelihood. I don't get too caught up in whether I am buying at the end of a hot streak or if a hot streak will be immediately followed by a slump. If it's a guy like Buck who clearly was just on the streak of his life, I just steer clear.

#7 khabibul35

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 10:59 AM

That's true most of the time, but not all of the time. Jose Bautista is one very important example from the past and Matt Joyce is a pretty relevant current example. His "hot streak" is now about 40 days long and if you picked him up after 2 weeks when he started getting hyped, you're still enjoying it. And who knows, maybe he's turned the corner and we'll get to enjoy this for the rest of the season, but even if not at least we're getting 3 weeks of solid production.

#8 jsp2014

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:07 AM

people vastly overestimate the predictive power of a hot streak. sometimes it is real, but a lot of times it is simple randomness.

if you want to know for sure, run a study. start recording a player's stats for about 2-4 weeks following people proclaiming him to be hot. by the end of the year you can aggregate all the stats relative to those players' full season stat lines.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#9 Sine_cera

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:09 AM

That's why I always keep an eye on Fangraphs to use their stats and keep an eye on players who I consider being "unlucky". Who are underperforming their peripherals. Two players who come to mind are Adam Laroche and Mitch Moreland. Once those players start having several good games in a row I immediately add them. It could just be a small hot streak but it could also be that they're finally performing the way the should.

"Sometimes, the best trades are the ones that you didn't make." - Bill Veeck


#10 blangtang

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:14 AM

So who are the hot ones to add right now? that Shafer guy filling in for Braun?

#11 blangtang

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:17 AM

the only people i see who have been hot the last 2 weeks that might be on the wire in most leagues are:

Tyler Colvin, Adam Lind, Kyle Blanks edit maybe Sal Perez too

are these the type of players we are talking about or am I missing what you guys are chasing?

Edited by blangtang, 16 June 2013 - 11:19 AM.


#12 hard1

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:22 AM

Poop? I'm pretty sure they have a book that says everyone does it.

#13 glascock9

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:30 AM

that's why I am not picking up bj upton today.


Unless you're in an extremely shallow league, why the heck wouldn't you add BJ Upton? You'll never find another player all year on waivers with his potential.

Head to Head, Redraft league - R, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, SLG / W, L, CG, SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS

 

C - Gattis

1B - Votto

2B - Kipnis

3B - Machado

SS - Correa

OF - C. Gomez, Pence, Pollock

Util - J. Turner, Maybin

 

SP - Felix, Cueto, Keuchel, Lester, Carrasco, B. Anderson, Iwakuma

RP - Storen, Soria, McGee, W. Davis, Giles, Capps

 

DL - D. Wright, Springer


#14 ballfan4141

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:35 AM

that's why I am not picking up bj upton today.


Unless you're in an extremely shallow league, why the heck wouldn't you add BJ Upton? You'll never find another player all year on waivers with his potential.

he did nothing for a week. then gives you a 2 homerun game. now he wont do nothing for a while.

#15 glascock9

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:42 AM

Actually, he's hitting .250 this month with 4 home runs and 2 steals. He hit .143 in April and .147 in May. He's a guy who has a legitimate shot to make a run at 30/30 each year who just happened to get off to a horrendous start. You don't want to take a chance on him?

Head to Head, Redraft league - R, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, SLG / W, L, CG, SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS

 

C - Gattis

1B - Votto

2B - Kipnis

3B - Machado

SS - Correa

OF - C. Gomez, Pence, Pollock

Util - J. Turner, Maybin

 

SP - Felix, Cueto, Keuchel, Lester, Carrasco, B. Anderson, Iwakuma

RP - Storen, Soria, McGee, W. Davis, Giles, Capps

 

DL - D. Wright, Springer


#16 doog71

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 12:53 PM

Yes, most "experts" give worthless info that anyone could find for themselves by being observant reading box scores.

That's why I like sites like Fangraphs where they are more PREDICTIVE of a hot streak/regression coming.

For example, during Heyward's really rough stretch useful fantasy writers were pointing out his peripherals and how he was actually headed for a hot streak. Guess what? That's exactly what's happening.

10-team mixed ESPN league

C-Gattis/Schwarber
1B-Encarnacion
2B-Odor
3B-Donaldson
2B/SS-Tulo
1B/3B-Teixeira
OF-Harper
OF-CarGo
OF-Bruce
OF-Kemp
OF-Parra
U-Ellsbury
U-Beltre
SP-Tanaka/Kluber/Heaney/Shields/Syndergaard/Hammel/Santiago
RP-Gregerson/Chapman/Johnson/Storen

Cap'n Geech & Shrimp Shack Shooters league 10-team mixed Champion 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014


#17 Golden Spikes

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 01:06 PM

Actually, he's hitting .250 this month with 4 home runs and 2 steals. He hit .143 in April and .147 in May. He's a guy who has a legitimate shot to make a run at 30/30 each year who just happened to get off to a horrendous start. You don't want to take a chance on him?


he does?

I dont think hes got even remotely close to 30/30, and for be batting average is the hardest stat to chase/makeup ground in. I wouldnt ever want BJ on my teams

I guess he did have 28/31 last year, shows how little I like this guy

Rather take Rios, who is a better hitter

Edited by Golden Spikes, 16 June 2013 - 01:07 PM.

6x6 12 man H2H

 

C- Grandal

1B- Morales

2B- Gordon

SS- Hanley

3B- Seager

MI- Kendrick

CI- ARod

OF- Mccutchen, JDMart, Pederson

UTIL- Correa, Moreland

BN- Correa, Sano

 

SP- Grienke, Kluber, Harvey, Richards, Harang, Mccullers

RP- Gregerson, Boxberger, Miller, Familia, Soria

 


#18 ballfan4141

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 01:08 PM

upton is still batting only .166

#19 dod959

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 01:41 PM

In deep leagues, I usually pick up mediocre players who are hitting below .200 knowing that they should get back to .250/.260 at some point.

I mean, there are only so many players that hit under .200 each year so it's a pretty effective strategy for me because you know those guys will have to hit .300 or so to get back to .250.

#20 djmax101

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 01:46 PM

Hot streaks aren't predictive for batters. It's counter-intuitive, because they should be predictive, but the issue has been studied extensively. There are tons of examples that seem to prove the theory, but it really is just random variance. Now, players can change their approach (i.e. Dunn abandoning his retarded aggressiveness earlier this season and deciding to take walks again), but streaks without some sort of fundamental change in approach just don't provide predictive value.

Hot streaks for pitchers do provide some predictive value. It's unclear what the true case of this may be - the theory is that if a pitcher is hot, he is probably healthy, and pitcher health is always a grave concern (indeed, cold streaks are often a red flag for a hidden injury).

Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP (10 team H2H points)

C: Jonathan Lucroy / 1B: Jose Abreu / 2B: Brock Holt / SS: Troy Tulowitzki / 3B: Nolan Arenado / MI: Logan Forsythe / CI:  Justin Turner / OF: Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, Josh Reddick, Billy Burns, Steven Souza Jr. / UTIL: Mark Teixeira / DL: David Wright, Dustin Pedroia

 

SP: David Price, Matt Harvey, Carlos Carrasco, A.J. Burnett, Clay Buchholz, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Heston, Jess Chavez, Scott Kazmir / RP: Greg Holland, Wade Davis / DL: Jose Fernandez, Andrew Miller, Sean Doolittle

 

99 Problems But a Pitch Ain't 1 (8 team H2H points)

C: Stephen Vogt / 1B: Miguel Cabrera / 2B: Brian Dozier / SS: Troy Tulowitzki / 3B: Carlos Santana / MI: Carlos Correa  / CI: Joey Votto / OF: Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Steven Souza, Ben Zobrist / UTIL: Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez

 

SP: Chris Sale, Johnny Cueto, Matt Harvey, Jamie Garcia, Danny Salazar, Clay Buchholz, Carlos Martinez, Lance McCullers / RP: Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Cody Allen / DL: Jose Fernandez