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Hot Streaks -- A RotoWorld Study


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#1 jsp2014

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 12:32 PM

There is another topic about predicting hot streaks. rather than making assumptions, let's collect some data.

if you think a *batter* is on a hot streak or about to start a hot streak, post here. please provide some brief reasoning for why you think he's hot. I probably won't use random guesses but that will be determined ahead of time.

I'll probably search all Razzball mentions of hot shmotato as well.

from there, I will attempt to aggregate the data into a public Google Docs spreadsheet for the 2, 3, and 4 week periods following the hot streak mention. for a baseline, I will use the statistics that player collected from beyond the 4 week period. I think that is the best way to compare.

if anyone has suggestions on methodology, I'm open to the possibility that a better method exists.

Edited by jsp2014, 17 June 2013 - 12:34 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#2 Sine_cera

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 12:55 PM

Josh Reddick: A career high BB%, a career low Swing%, making better contact in the strike zone and still hitting a nice amount of fly balls. He's now hitting .310 since he came back from the DL. Only 5 K's in 55 AB. His LD% this month is at 22%, right around career average.

Edited by Sine_cera, 17 June 2013 - 12:56 PM.

Baseball and football are very different games. In a way, both of them are easy. Football is easy if you're crazy as hell. Baseball is easy if you've got patience. They'd both be easier for me if I were a little more crazy and a little more patient. ~ Bo Jackson


#3 DK64MASTER

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 12:58 PM

Predicting hot streaks is difficult to impossible. If you want to split hairs, here are some ideas I had on this topic:

What's useful to us is calculating the likelihood (http://en.wikipedia....lihood_function) that a player will outperform his current pace over a sequence of n games, where n is user-defined. Ideally, it would be a mathematical formula where you could input a batter's schedule, handedness of potential pitchers faced, past performance, and park location. Then it would be relatively straightforward to output a distribution on how the batter has performed, and where the batter is expected to perform, along with a confidence interval (or six sigma) on how much he will under or over-perform.

An interesting topic is how career numbers correlate with future performances for the average batter. If you can use career numbers (maybe with an age factor to predict drop off), then you can some pretty powerful information. Otherwise, if you go by current season, you probably need to wait till the all star break before getting enough history on how the batter is performing. Obviously, the formula gets weird when you are looking at someone who is injured or is recovering from injury, but I bet with some reasonable thought, even that could be factored in.

Just a few cents of my somewhat admittedly lacking knowledge of probability.

#4 NyjersInParis

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 01:05 PM

Brabdon moss

Team 1 12 team espn 4-2 qb rivers rb forte sjax wr jones jeffrey mi. floyd te ertz flex k. wright
k bailey def stream bn matthews m. jones hill ryan j. hill gerhart hillman gordon
Team 2 10 team .5 ppr espn 4-2 qb wilson rb forte ellington wr bryant white green te ertz flex j. bell
k haushkha def stream bn ball mi. floyd r. matthews gordon a. williams
Team 3 12 team yahoo 5-1 qb romo wr bryant ju. jones rb l. bell spiller te witten flex j. bell
k hauskha def det bn miller t. smith gordon asiata s. johnson cj anderson
Team 4 10 team auction yahoo 2-4 qb rivers wr jeffery cobb benjamin rb lacy charles te gates flex j. bell
k tucker def stream bn spiller k. davis donnel stacy eli gordon
Team 5 10 team yahoo 4-2 qb newton wr green cobb rb forte gore te kelce flex ellington
k dawson def lions bn b. tate hopkins r. matthews j. cook
Team 6 10 team yahoo 3-3 qb kaep wr megatron maclin rb murray l. bell te olsen flex b. tate
k hauskha def stream bn patterson quick j. bell stacy gordon martin
Team 7 10 team yahoo 2-4 qb romo wr julio jones maclin sanders rb lacy ellington te walker
k bailey def stream bn r. matthews asiata mi. floyd k. allen a. williams oliver
Team 8 10 team 1 pt ppr auction yahoo 3-3 qb newton wr nelson maclin rb forte j. bell te walker flex floyd jefferey
k tucker def stream bn white spiller  asiata eli sankey


#5 rudygamble

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 02:51 PM

One thing to consider is not just a hitter's baseline but that the quality of opponents vary per week. So a guy who played in Coors last week will be more likely on a 'hot streak' vs. a guy about to play in Coors.

I'd consider using the Razzball Hitter-tron (http://razzball.com/hittertron)* as the baseline for expected stats for upcoming games since it factors in the opposing pitcher (including handedness), park, and expected spot in the batting order.

* The Hitter-tron is run by me so bias noted.

Edited by rudygamble, 17 June 2013 - 02:52 PM.


#6 jsp2014

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 03:04 PM

One thing to consider is not just a hitter's baseline but that the quality of opponents vary per week. So a guy who played in Coors last week will be more likely on a 'hot streak' vs. a guy about to play in Coors.

I'd consider using the Razzball Hitter-tron (razzball.com/hittertron)* as the baseline for expected stats for upcoming games since it factors in the opposing pitcher (including handedness), park, and expected spot in the batting order.

* The Hitter-tron is run by me so bias noted.


heyoo, the afro came out to play.

that's a good point that I'll keep in mind. likewise, a batter who has favorable matchups over the 2-4 week evaluation period is generally going to look better than he should. hopefully with a large enough sample, that part will mostly even out. I'll also look at wRC+ to at least negate the park factors.

that's a good idea using the Hitter-tron as a baseline. only problem is I'll have to make sure I grab the data at the appropriate times. we'll see how well I can stay on top of things.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#7 rudygamble

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 03:07 PM


One thing to consider is not just a hitter's baseline but that the quality of opponents vary per week. So a guy who played in Coors last week will be more likely on a 'hot streak' vs. a guy about to play in Coors.

I'd consider using the Razzball Hitter-tron (razzball.com/hittertron)* as the baseline for expected stats for upcoming games since it factors in the opposing pitcher (including handedness), park, and expected spot in the batting order.

* The Hitter-tron is run by me so bias noted.


heyoo, the afro came out to play.

that's a good point that I'll keep in mind. likewise, a batter who has favorable matchups over the 2-4 week evaluation period is generally going to look better than he should. hopefully with a large enough sample, that part will mostly even out. I'll also look at wRC+ to at least negate the park factors.

that's a good idea using the Hitter-tron as a baseline. only problem is I'll have to make sure I grab the data at the appropriate times. we'll see how well I can stay on top of things.


I archive the hittertron projections so you can just let me know which player and which time frame and i'll custom pull it for you.

#8 DK64MASTER

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 03:21 PM

One thing to consider is not just a hitter's baseline but that the quality of opponents vary per week. So a guy who played in Coors last week will be more likely on a 'hot streak' vs. a guy about to play in Coors.

I'd consider using the Razzball Hitter-tron (http://razzball.com/hittertron)* as the baseline for expected stats for upcoming games since it factors in the opposing pitcher (including handedness), park, and expected spot in the batting order.

* The Hitter-tron is run by me so bias noted.


Very nice. I love stat generation websites like this!

#9 nickalero99

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 04:00 PM

Very interested to see how this goes. Great idea and pretty cool tool that Rudy has come up with.

#10 doog71

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 04:07 PM

One thing to consider is not just a hitter's baseline but that the quality of opponents vary per week. So a guy who played in Coors last week will be more likely on a 'hot streak' vs. a guy about to play in Coors.

I'd consider using the Razzball Hitter-tron (http://razzball.com/hittertron)* as the baseline for expected stats for upcoming games since it factors in the opposing pitcher (including handedness), park, and expected spot in the batting order.

* The Hitter-tron is run by me so bias noted.


Hi Rudy! Glad to see you here. Razzball is an absolutely awesome fantasy baseball site. Thanks for all the great tools you guys keep putting out there (Stream-o-nator, Hitter-Tron, etc.)

As far as hot streaks go, I'll bet Aybar is about to light it up based on past years splits.

Edited by doog71, 17 June 2013 - 04:08 PM.

10-team mixed ESPN league

C-Santana
1B-Rizzo
2B-D. Gordon
3B-Beltre
2B/SS-Rendon
1B/3B-V. Martinez
OF-Gomez
OF-Puig
OF-Bruce
OF-Bautista
OF-Pence
U-Brantley
U-Cuddyer
SP-Kershaw/Teheran/Latos/Kazmir/Wheeler/Arrieta/Fiers
RP-Janssen/Casilla/Doolittle/Jansen/Feliz

Cap'n Geech & Shrimp Shack Shooters league 10-team mixed Champion 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

#11 rudygamble

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 04:15 PM

"
Hi Rudy! Glad to see you here. Razzball is an absolutely awesome fantasy baseball site. Thanks for all the great tools you guys keep putting out there (Stream-o-nator, Hitter-Tron, etc.)

As far as hot streaks go, I'll bet Aybar is about to light it up based on past years splits.
"

Thanks for the kind words. I'm psyched to support anything that tests 'hot streaks' or 'hitter vs. pitcher' matchups. I ignore both of these for the hitter-tron and believe that - while they do exist to a certain extent - they provide almost no uplift in accuracy once you take batter/pitcher/park/playing time into account.

So open to providing any help I can on these topics :)

#12 pbjfb

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 08:19 PM

How does everyone feel about Pedro Alvarez? He seems to go on short hot streaks with the BA. Last 7 days: 0.300, but last 14 days: 0.268, last 30 days: 0.240. He will hit the HRs but I've never seen him maintain that BA for a consistent period of more than 2 weeks.

#13 papasmurf

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 08:41 PM

I wish I had an MLB package or have the time to watch games closely. I think that's really the only way to tell if a guy is starting to swing the bat well.

Yes I realize that we are not scouts and all visual assessment is subjective to a degree, but most of us have been baseball fans and fantasy ballers for years, so we should be able to tell a good at bat from a bad one

I also say welcome! to Rudy. When's the mustache himself gonna pay a visit? Or is he already amongst us? @@

#14 mrfrood

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 09:35 PM

Michael Morse, even though he did strike out in his first at bat tonight. He's had a good three game stretch. He also was hitting a couple of foul balls that were loud. I could see him going on a home run binge like he did at the start of the season.

#15 Heartbreak

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 09:52 PM

Though I'm not a fan, Josh Hamilton is starting to get right in his swing. Watch for him to go on a 1-2 week tear.

#16 NyjersInParis

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Posted 19 June 2013 - 12:41 PM

Ben revere

Team 1 12 team espn 4-2 qb rivers rb forte sjax wr jones jeffrey mi. floyd te ertz flex k. wright
k bailey def stream bn matthews m. jones hill ryan j. hill gerhart hillman gordon
Team 2 10 team .5 ppr espn 4-2 qb wilson rb forte ellington wr bryant white green te ertz flex j. bell
k haushkha def stream bn ball mi. floyd r. matthews gordon a. williams
Team 3 12 team yahoo 5-1 qb romo wr bryant ju. jones rb l. bell spiller te witten flex j. bell
k hauskha def det bn miller t. smith gordon asiata s. johnson cj anderson
Team 4 10 team auction yahoo 2-4 qb rivers wr jeffery cobb benjamin rb lacy charles te gates flex j. bell
k tucker def stream bn spiller k. davis donnel stacy eli gordon
Team 5 10 team yahoo 4-2 qb newton wr green cobb rb forte gore te kelce flex ellington
k dawson def lions bn b. tate hopkins r. matthews j. cook
Team 6 10 team yahoo 3-3 qb kaep wr megatron maclin rb murray l. bell te olsen flex b. tate
k hauskha def stream bn patterson quick j. bell stacy gordon martin
Team 7 10 team yahoo 2-4 qb romo wr julio jones maclin sanders rb lacy ellington te walker
k bailey def stream bn r. matthews asiata mi. floyd k. allen a. williams oliver
Team 8 10 team 1 pt ppr auction yahoo 3-3 qb newton wr nelson maclin rb forte j. bell te walker flex floyd jefferey
k tucker def stream bn white spiller  asiata eli sankey


#17 foeplay

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Posted 19 June 2013 - 01:09 PM

Grey Albright

#18 Travis Burten

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Posted 19 June 2013 - 01:17 PM

SS Alcides Escobar

#19 rudygamble

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Posted 19 June 2013 - 01:31 PM

Grey Albright


Ha!

#20 AnonymousRob

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Posted 19 June 2013 - 02:01 PM

Curious to see how this shakes out, but didn't fangraphs show predicting hot streaks is mostly nonsense?
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