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Fantasy Winners & Losers after the 2013 NBA Draft


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#1 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 09:57 AM

Winner's - Rookies

TBurke - early favorite for fantasy ROY
BMcLemore (assuming TEvans is elsewhere) - should see plenty of minutes at SG
VOladipo (assuming Afflalo is traded) - starter and should at least provide great defensive stats
CZeller - will play heavy minutes right away
MCW - new starting PG in PHI
KCP - new starting SG for DET
SLarkin - new starting PG in DAL?


Winner's - Veterans

JMcGee - Carl fired, now Koufas traded - nothing standing in the way of starting at C with 30+MPG
IThomas - Smart fired, didn't use #7 pick on PG, should be locked & loaded as SAC starting PG
ETurner - it's now or never for this guy with JHoliday shipped out.  Should play a SG/SF point role.
JGreen - possible that Rondo is traded next, now the man in BOS
ABradley - should be fully recovered and will see a lot of minutes.  Good late source of 3's/STL


Loser's - Veterans

JHoliday - expecting a Vasquez trade but currently a logjam at PG in NO (BRoberts played well at the end of last year too).  For now, don't see how this is an improvement fantasy-wise for Holiday.
TThompson - ABennett selection should kill any of his 13-14 sleeper potential
MGortat - expecting him to be traded after the ALen selection but value down if stays in PHX
DLilard - people are going to disagree with this but A LOT of his 12-13 fantasy value came from the heavy minutes he received. CJ McCollum will eat into some of those minutes and I think those that use a high selection on Lilard will end up being really dissapointed.

A lot will change once the FA period starts but I figured this would be a good place to start in evaluating how the offseason has already affected player's fantasy values.

#2 tremixt

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 10:05 AM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 28 June 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

Loser's - Veterans

JHoliday - expecting a Vasquez trade but currently a logjam at PG in NO (BRoberts played well at the end of last year too).  For now, don't see how this is an improvement fantasy-wise for Holiday.

For all the flaws that people bring up about Holiday's game, he's still far superior to both Vasquez and Roberts. You don't give up two 1st round picks, if healthy, for a player you view as depth.

And if anything, the fact that Holiday blows both Vasquez and Roberts out of the water in terms of defensive ability is enough to guarantee he will get the lion share of the minutes. This Vasquez hype is too much.. Holiday is an all star, Vasquez is a backup.

Edited by tremixt, 28 June 2013 - 10:06 AM.


#3 Finally Detroit Wins

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 10:06 AM

KCP isn't starting right away unless Calderon doesn't come back even then he might not.

Holiday isn't a loser in this situation. I don't see too big of a timeshare even though I like Vasquez a lot, holiday is better.

Edited by Finally Detroit Wins, 28 June 2013 - 10:08 AM.

View Postrraayy3, on 20 August 2012 - 11:16 AM, said:

"experts" do not exist.

get sunday ticket, think for yourself.

#4 TheWhiteMamba

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 10:11 AM

Paul Pierce and KG will definitely see their stats take a pretty big hit.

Kirilenko if he stays, Muhammed will take minutes

Rodney Stuckey/Brandon Knight/KCP/Calderon? timeshare sounds ugly.

Vazquez- no value unless traded

Winners
Holiday for sure. He's by far the best PG they've had since Paul and he will put up stats, they wouldn't have traded away 2 firsts for an All-star to put him in a time-share. Vazquez will be traded or he'll be a 6th man like he should be.

Jeff Green? Not a lot of competiton for points or rebounds but I question if he's that good

Thad Young- Sort of in a situation like Green, might see more shots next year
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#5 mbroo5880i

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?



#6 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:09 PM

Unless Vasquez gets traded, it's wishful thinking that he won't see significant minutes and hurt Jrue's fantasy production as compared to last season.  Holiday averaged 37.5 MPG this past season.  Monty Williams has a tendency to spread out his players minutes.  Vasquez led the team at 34.25 MPG and every other player on NO was under 31 MPG.  Sure, they may see time together in the backcourt but this will likely deflate Holiday's AST totals.  I'm not saying Holiday is going to be terrible but he's not going to see the minutes or production he saw last season in PHI.

Calderon is an URFA and could be gone and Stuckey is an RFA and I wouldn't be surprised if the team let's him walk.  If those 2 players are gone, what competition for minutes at SG does KCP have?

#7 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:12 PM

View Postmbroo5880i, on 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?

Lillard had value last season because of his minutes.  He wasn't an efficient player at all.  His STL were terrible for a PG seeing those many minutes, his FG% was below average and TO high compared to his AST.  I'm definitely staying away for 13-14.

#8 Zombies

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:25 PM

I don't see McCollum being a big hit to Lillard...If anything McCollum will shift over to shooting guard and create more space for Lillard to operate...

#9 lbjames6

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:42 PM

View Postmbroo5880i, on 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?

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#10 ballsohard

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:54 PM

View PostZombies, on 28 June 2013 - 12:25 PM, said:

I don't see McCollum being a big hit to Lillard...If anything McCollum will shift over to shooting guard and create more space for Lillard to operate...

McCollum is a pretty underrated talent in my opinion and I think he can easily step right in to a nightly 30-minute backup combo guard role. The biggest detriment to the Blazers last year was them being forced to overwork their starters due to an absolute lack of depth. Now, they can afford to give Lillard 35 minutes a game, rather than 38. It might not make much of a difference especially since Lillard is so young, but it catches up to you. Look at fellow teammates Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. Matthews was basically a NBA iron man, and Batum never really had any injuries, but last year both of them dealt with a slew of ailments.

#11 rocko

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 01:13 PM

Very wishful thinking that jrue is a fantasy winner here. Probably fewer turnovers, but only due to the decreased usage that is inevitable. EG loves to handle the ball or iso, he's also an adequate distributor too. Vasquez is too capable for jrue to get huge minutes like last year. 31-33 minutes is probable. Monty is as unpredictable as they come too. The only reason Vasquez led the team in minutes is bc they had no guards and even he lost time to roberts at times. Jrue also won't be needed to score as much. Again I think best case scenario is he equals his value last year by offsetting decreased counting stats with better efficiency, but I predict a slide. Nothing huge but still

#12 rocko

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 01:19 PM

Also I agree with everyone saying lillard is destined to disappoint next year. Not bc he won't be good, but bc his role and minutes can't get any better and will probably get worse, and a lot of people will reach for him expecting the usual sophomore improvement. It's really his defense holding him back, he needs to get up to 1.5 steals to get to the next level.

#13 TheWhiteMamba

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 01:43 PM

View Postlbjames6, on 28 June 2013 - 12:42 PM, said:

View Postmbroo5880i, on 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?

Like who?
Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis, Robin Lopez, and Eric Gordon.

I think you guys are really exagerrating how bad Williams is with minutes as well. He's one of the better coaches in the league and their tank job last year was once again blatantly obvious. If they are trying to win this season there's no way he limits his ALL STAR point guard to less than 35 mpg.
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#14 Izanagi

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 05:56 PM

View PostTheWhiteMamba, on 28 June 2013 - 01:43 PM, said:

View Postlbjames6, on 28 June 2013 - 12:42 PM, said:

View Postmbroo5880i, on 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?

Like who?
Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis, Robin Lopez, and Eric Gordon.

I think you guys are really exagerrating how bad Williams is with minutes as well. He's one of the better coaches in the league and their tank job last year was once again blatantly obvious. If they are trying to win this season there's no way he limits his ALL STAR point guard to less than 35 mpg.

Exactly Mamba

Plus jason smith who can pick and pop.

Teams will now have to account for jrues ability to penetrate. This opens things up for those guys.

I'm also thinking we'll add a guy like martell webster or corey brewer to bolster that as well
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#15 ballsohard

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 06:37 PM

A guy who hasn't been mentioned yet is Karasev on the Cavs. I can't believe he fell to #19, and the Cavs got an absolute steal there. He was projected as a shooting guard, but with his size and skills, I think he can succeed as a SF in the NBA, and fortunately for both parties, the Cavs have a need at the SF.

Karasev is just 19 years old, but he already has international experience and he's NBA-ready, so I think he can contribute from the get-go. He's a bit streaky which is a potential weakness, but he's still a phenomenal perimeter sharpshooter when he's on, and has other offensive weapons at his disposal. He's also a solid rebounder for his position. He absolutely needs to get better with his right hand (he's a lefty), but aside from that, I really like his potential as a NBA player.

#16 Doctor L

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 07:11 PM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 28 June 2013 - 12:12 PM, said:

View Postmbroo5880i, on 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?

Lillard had value last season because of his minutes.  He wasn't an efficient player at all.  His STL were terrible for a PG seeing those many minutes, his FG% was below average and TO high compared to his AST.  I'm definitely staying away for 13-14.

I agree, he doesn't provide anything as far as steals go and steals are an important PG stat. The decision for me to keep Marc Gasol over him got a lot easier with this draft. I'm not seeing much, if any statistical improvement from last season to this from him.

Edited by Doctor L, 28 June 2013 - 07:14 PM.


#17 sya

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 10:14 PM

People always overreact to rookies after the draft. You expect CJM to cut down big minutes on Damian Lillard?? I agree that his minutes might decrease because he played an insane amount of minutes last year, but he will still play at least 35mpg instead of maybe 40mpg.

I can give you the exact role that CJM will play- Eric Maynor's role late in the year. Post allstar last year, Maynor was playing 20mpg, but he didn't in anyway cut down on Lillard's minutes or value. CJM will relieve BOTH SG & PG, maybe even sometimes SF if they go small. So there won't be a significant decrease in Lillard's minutes.

And Lillard's value wasn't only based on his minutes, if you watch this guy play he is actually a better player in reality than in fantasy because he single-handedly lifted his teams several times. Lillards gave 2+ 3s, 85% FT, nearly 20ppg and 7 apg. If Portland wants to win, they will ride Lillard, he may not average 38mpg again, but he will not go below 35mpg even with CJM's arrival.

Rookies are being given way too much credit after the draft.

Last year MKG was being called the next stud SF, well he was waiver wire material for most of the year. Barnes also. Even Beal was up and down. I am not saying CJM will not be good, but he is being given way too much credit and he will not affect Lillard's value that much. Lillard took the league by storm last year, but only a few rookies can do what he did. CJM is not one of them.

#18 ballsohard

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 11:15 PM

I think that might be an overreaction. The majority of posters here have acknowledged that any hit Lillard takes will be minor. And just a few posts above you, I even said that rather than 38 minutes per game, Lillard will see closer to 35. Nothing extreme at all. Many people will often get hyped up about rookies following the draft since there's really nothing else to look forward to at this point in the NBA season, but I think folks here are doing a pretty good job with balancing their excitement with sensibility.

#19 lbjames6

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 12:15 AM

View PostTheWhiteMamba, on 28 June 2013 - 01:43 PM, said:

View Postlbjames6, on 28 June 2013 - 12:42 PM, said:

View Postmbroo5880i, on 28 June 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I see Jrue as a winner.  Vasquez can provide back up time at the point and slide over to the 2.  I wouldn't be surprised to see EG traded, if another team is willing to trade for an injury prone player.  Jrue will have consistent front court depth to dish to as well as solid outside shooters.  I like the trade for both the Pelicans and Jrue.  The only concern is giving up the 2014 R1 protected pick.

Same for Lillard.  They have to cut his minutes or he will wear out early in his career.  The guy I wonder about is Matthews.  Where does this put him?

Like who?
Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis, Robin Lopez, and Eric Gordon.

I think you guys are really exagerrating how bad Williams is with minutes as well. He's one of the better coaches in the league and their tank job last year was once again blatantly obvious. If they are trying to win this season there's no way he limits his ALL STAR point guard to less than 35 mpg.

Eric Gordon is a negative for Jrue, not a positive. Robin Lopez is barely an average center. I'll give you AD and Ryno. I'm not seeing the improvement in Jrue's situation.
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#20 Finally Detroit Wins

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 01:11 AM

Burke, MCW and Zeller seem like the biggest winners. Good players who should excel from day one and have little to no competition for playing time. Burke for fantasy and real life ROY, Go blue!

I'd also add Shabazz since Minny has no SG threat to his playing time. He might start off as 6th man but I think he'll start by seasons end.

Edited by Finally Detroit Wins, 29 June 2013 - 01:15 AM.

View Postrraayy3, on 20 August 2012 - 11:16 AM, said:

"experts" do not exist.

get sunday ticket, think for yourself.