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Pierre Garcon 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 theSPANKER

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 01:57 AM

What's the outlook for this guy in 2013? He opted to not have toe surgery and will wear special shoes for pain management and of course there are no guarantees Griffin will be as successful with his own injury he's coming back from.

That said, if everything works out and he's anywhere close to 100 percent he could be a real steal. he looked pretty good at the end of the season last year.

Anyone targeting him this year or is the risk too high with so much depth at WR? What round is the earliest you take in in a 12-man league?

12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez, Johnny Football
RBs - Murray, Mathews, Randle (cuff to Murray), Starks, CJ2K
WRs - Dez Bryant, Alshon Jefferies, Josh Gordon, Harry Douglas, Charles Johnson 

TE - Delanie Walker
K - Barth Connor  
Streaming D - Rams 


#2 Prea

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 09:49 AM

I like his talent, but I'm staying away from him. I don't think he's over his foot issues.

#3 Robrain

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 10:06 AM

He's DND for me, due to not doing what's necessary to correct his foot issues.

Like Ahmad Bradshaw if he DIDN'T get surgery...

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#4 ForteDaysandForteNights

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 08:39 PM

I would find it hard to pass on him if he falls any further than the 6th round. When him and RG3 were both on the field operating at near effectiveness, Griffin seemed to only have eyes for him. In games where RG3 was healthy on the field, Garcon scored 16, 14, 16 and 14.

Depending on the rest of my team if I could stash Garcon as a WR3 I would be pretty happy.
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#5 jtaylor39

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 09:17 PM

I've done one early draft and picked him up in the 7th round. Hope he can stay healthy because he was a beast last year when he was, an impressive talent.
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#6 Al.Davis

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 09:34 PM

I'd take him anywhere in or after the 5th round.

He's a WR3 that could turn into a WR1.

#7 Robrain

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 09:35 PM

I'd take him anywhere in or after the 5th round.

He's a WR3 that could turn into a WR1.


Or he could tweak his already injured foot in game 1 and be done for the season.

Not to mention the multitude of Questionable weeks you're likely to deal with if he does tweak his foot.

Edited by Robrain, 09 July 2013 - 09:35 PM.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#8 The Jesus

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 09:47 PM

When looking in the middle rounds for receivers (rounds 7-10), I tend to look for receivers with a ton of talent and the prototypical wide receiver build. Pierre Garcon definitely fits the bill, but I wouldn't take him before round 7.
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#9 Al.Davis

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 06:51 AM


I'd take him anywhere in or after the 5th round.

He's a WR3 that could turn into a WR1.


Or he could tweak his already injured foot in game 1 and be done for the season.

Not to mention the multitude of Questionable weeks you're likely to deal with if he does tweak his foot.



Very true!

Much of this game we so cherish is about risk tolerance vs. upside. I'm on the far end of that spectrum!

Anyway, by round 5 I will have my 2 RBs (keepers in rounds 8 and 11), 3 WRs, and either a TE or QB already rostered. Pierre would be my WR4 to start and I'm very comfortable with the risk that he can play on the same foot he did so well on to end last season.

#10 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 08:36 AM

I would find it hard to pass on him if he falls any further than the 6th round. When him and RG3 were both on the field operating at near effectiveness, Griffin seemed to only have eyes for him. In games where RG3 was healthy on the field, Garcon scored 16, 14, 16 and 14.

Depending on the rest of my team if I could stash Garcon as a WR3 I would be pretty happy.


Nice post, I didn't realize these stats. People seem to be really worried about his foot, which could be totally healed by the start of the season. I think we will know by TC and preseason if the foot is going to be a lingering issue. If all looks well, I don't think he will be any more of an injury risk than any other player. The key takeaway is that Garcon performed at a WR1 level with RGIII. I will take that all day long near Garcon's current ADP.
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#11 Robrain

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 10:27 AM


I would find it hard to pass on him if he falls any further than the 6th round. When him and RG3 were both on the field operating at near effectiveness, Griffin seemed to only have eyes for him. In games where RG3 was healthy on the field, Garcon scored 16, 14, 16 and 14.

Depending on the rest of my team if I could stash Garcon as a WR3 I would be pretty happy.


Nice post, I didn't realize these stats. People seem to be really worried about his foot, which could be totally healed by the start of the season. I think we will know by TC and preseason if the foot is going to be a lingering issue. If all looks well, I don't think he will be any more of an injury risk than any other player. The key takeaway is that Garcon performed at a WR1 level with RGIII. I will take that all day long near Garcon's current ADP.


The fact is, he has to wear special shoes just to step onto the playing field. There's a laundry list of quotes from him that I'll look up and post in this thread later, but just look at Jacoby Ford's history with his foot injuries, and that's pretty much what I'm expecting to occur with Pierre Garcon.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#12 jtaylor39

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 10:54 AM

I wouldn't bother cluttering up with quotes, it is what it is. High Risk/reward pick.
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#13 theSPANKER

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:31 AM

Well at some point during a draft this guy represents value if you ask me. I don't know how anyone can say he or any player is DND if he falls far enough. According to FF Calculator Garcon's ADP is 6.06 in PPR and and 5.12 in standard leagues (which is surprising to me).

So right now he's going around the Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker area which is much too risky IMO.

If he lasts to the 7th round he's being drafted in the Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, James Jones group. I love his game and his upside and with Griffin probably running less this year he's easily the #1, #2, and #3 option in the passing game.

12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez, Johnny Football
RBs - Murray, Mathews, Randle (cuff to Murray), Starks, CJ2K
WRs - Dez Bryant, Alshon Jefferies, Josh Gordon, Harry Douglas, Charles Johnson 

TE - Delanie Walker
K - Barth Connor  
Streaming D - Rams 


#14 Robrain

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:50 AM

Well at some point during a draft this guy represents value if you ask me. I don't know how anyone can say he or any player is DND if he falls far enough. According to FF Calculator Garcon's ADP is 6.06 in PPR and and 5.12 in standard leagues (which is surprising to me).

So right now he's going around the Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker area which is much too risky IMO.

If he lasts to the 7th round he's being drafted in the Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, James Jones group. I love his game and his upside and with Griffin probably running less this year he's easily the #1, #2, and #3 option in the passing game.


Pierre Garcon is planning to wear special shoes this season to help with the torn ligament in his right foot.

Garcon has opted against surgery because there's no guarantee that it will completely solve his injury. Therefore, he's looking toward pain management. "I have to learn a lot about my foot and how I run and things like that with all these injuries, but it's getting better,"



Pierre Garcon doesn't anticipate "any problems" with his surgically-repaired shoulder, but is less certain about his troublesome foot.

Garcon also revealed he injured his shoulder in Washington's Wild Card loss to Seattle. "The shoulder is good." Garcon is more pessimistic about his foot. "I can’t predict what’s going to happen or how it’s going to be," he said. "But I’m going to continue to rehab it and continue to work at it and continue to monitor it."


Updating a previous item, Pierre Garcon underwent "minor" labrum surgery in January.

Coach Mike Shanahan initially said Garcon underwent "chest" surgery. The labrum is part of the shoulder. Garcon is reportedly healthy right now, but he isn't participating in team drills at OTAs as a "precaution." Entering his age-27 season, Garcon should be all systems go for training camp.



Pierre Garcon (foot) isn't sure if he'll be 100 percent healthy for 2013.

"I’ll be healthy enough to play," Garcon said Thursday on NFL Network. "I can’t say I’ll be 100 percent, but I’ll be back out there helping the team in any way possible." Garcon isn't sure if he'll go full steam during OTAs. Garcon played through the injury in 2012, but it's a concern he's already resigned to the possibility of playing at less than 100 percent for the second consecutive season. Garcon could eventually require surgery, but has thus far avoided it because there's no guarantee it will correct the issue.



Pierre Garcon is hopeful he'll avoid toe surgery this offseason.

At one point during the middle of the year, it looked like Garcon would undergo season-ending surgery. "That's the LAST thing," Garcon said of going under the knife. "Hopefully surgery is not an option, but if I get enough doctors to say I need surgery, then surgery it is. But, if I can limp around for seven more years, I'll probably limp around for seven more years and be all right."


Pretty sure there were more choice quotes out there from Garcon...I'll look them up when I'm not busy doing other things.

"Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, James Jones"

Those are all more-or-less the #1 guys on their team, and they're healthy to start the season. I'd take all of them over Garcon.

DX, Desean Jackson, Miles Austin, probably Anquan Boldin, T.Y. Hilton, Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Lance Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, Aaron Dobson, Denarius Moore, Ryan Broyles, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Givens, DHB, I think most of those guys are safer picks that have a pretty good shot of outperforming Garcon on the season (I'm assuming he aggravates his foot injury at some point this season).

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#15 Al.Davis

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:34 PM

Robo,

The difference to me between Garcon and the laundry list of players you've listed is that Pierre performed very well when he played thru the pain.

I'd have a hard time saying guys that are coming off ACL injury (Broyles) or have chronic hamstring issues (Austin, Denarius Moore), or never played an NFL snap (Patterson) or aren't even starters (DHB) are 'safer' picks than Pierre.

Plus I give Pierre bonus points for playing through pain while being French!

Au Revior,

Le Al Davis

#16 Robrain

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 01:45 PM

Robo,

The difference to me between Garcon and the laundry list of players you've listed is that Pierre performed very well when he played thru the pain.

I'd have a hard time saying guys that are coming off ACL injury (Broyles) or have chronic hamstring issues (Austin, Denarius Moore), or never played an NFL snap (Patterson) or aren't even starters (DHB) are 'safer' picks than Pierre.

Plus I give Pierre bonus points for playing through pain while being French!

Au Revior,

Le Al Davis


Ryan Broyles' ACL injury doesn't scare me for several reasons:

#1. He actually had the surgery to repair it...
#2. He's been through this before:

http://www.detroitli...17-b752a285f4f0

"Broyles suffered the ACL tear to his right knee against the Colts Dec. 2. His surgery occured two weeks later than it did when his tore the left ACL at Oklahoma, but he says he's right on pace with where he needs to be to get back for the start of the season.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is the poster boy for ACL recoveries.

He had reconstructive ACL surgery in late December of 2011 – three weeks later than Broyles had his surgery this year – and was able to start Week 1 of the 2012 season and came nine yards short of breaking the NFL's single-season rushing record.

With the Lions able to monitor Broyles' progress every step of the way this time around - like the Vikings were able to do with Peterson – Broyles is hopeful for the same kind of recovery."

#3: It wasn't the same ACL/knee that he tore his senior year in college. He tore the left one in college - the right one in the NFL. I would be more concerned if it had been the same knee twice - to me that would hint at a specific recurring injury (Domenik Hixon, Greg Childs). That's not the case with Broyles.

We've seen plenty of athletes have ACL surgery at this point and come back from it strong.

While I admit, Miles Austin has had more hamstring issues than I'd prefer in a WR in my starting lineup, having past hamstring issues is NOT the same thing as an ALREADY INJURED FOOT. When Miles Austin goes out and runs routes this offseason, there isn't crazy pain going through his hamstring because that injury is HEALED. Every time Pierre Garcon puts weight on his foot, he risks aggravating the injury.

This is MUCH more along the lines of Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Antonio Gates trying to play through their foot injuries.

No NFL player has played a snap until well...they reach the NFL. That doesn't stop me from drafting rookies, and Patterson's 12th-round ADP is far more stomachable than an injured WR in the 5th-round (12-team leagues). Heck, even if Garcon were to fall to the 7th, when I can get a ton of other receivers who aren't already injured, later than that? There's no way I'm taking Garcon. Ask the Hakeem Nicks owners how much they enjoyed that ride last season:

http://www.nfl.com/p.../80672/gamelogs

There's pretty much exactly what I'm expecting from Pierre Garcon. ~700 receiving yards, maybe 3-5 receiving TDs. His ceiling I think will be about 950 receiving yards and 5-8 receiving TDs for 2013. I'm pretty convinced that he's going to re-injure that already-injured foot sooner rather than later.

Do you really expect Garcon to play a full 16-game regular season schedule on an injured foot without missing time? Lol.

As for DHB, I included him + Hilton mainly because at the moment we aren't certain which of them will be the #2 WR for the Colts. Whichever one ends up winning the #2 role is what I meant by including them both in that list. In the scenario that they end up in a timeshare for the #2 role, I wouldn't think either of them would be an every-week starter in a 12-team league (that starts 3 WR's) - they'd simply be the Devery Henderson kind of player that you throw into your lineup on a bye week or as an emergency injury fill-in, and hope they catch a prayer for a TD that week.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#17 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:05 PM

Robrain,

I understand your concern but you are being way too pessimistic about Garcon's chances for success in 2013. The quotes are concerning but let's look at the facts:

- He injured his foot in week 1 (9/9/12) and was still able to come back that season and play well from week 12 (11/22/12) thru the end of the season. Meaning, he was able to play at a high level again after roughly 9-10 weeks rest. He will now have had close to 7 months (from their WC loss in early Jan to the start of training camp coming up in late July) to have rested and rehabbed the foot. That's a lot of time for things to get better. Wearing special shoes should only help.

- If his foot is really going to be a problem, I think we will know about its sometime during either training camp or preseason games. If things don't look or sound good, then I have no problem if owners want to completely avoid Garcon. There is also the distinct possibility that the foot has healed well and will not cause any major problems for 2013. Again though, we should have a very good idea on where things stand before most drafts occur in late August.

- I am counting 6 weeks in which both RGIII & Garcon were healthy and playing together (weeks 1, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17). Garcon's avg standard pts per week over those 6 weeks comes out to 12.65. Extrapolating that over 16 weeks puts him at 202 fantasy pts for the season. That makes him a top 5 fantasy WR last season. That is the realistic upside that he has for 2013.

Based on the above, I will be very inclined to draft Garcon anytime after rd 5, so long as a problem with his foot does not recur during TC or PS. Draft those other question marks at WR over him at your own loss.
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#18 Robrain

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:49 PM

- He injured his foot in week 1 (9/9/12) and was still able to come back that season and play well from week 12 (11/22/12) thru the end of the season. Meaning, he was able to play at a high level again after roughly 9-10 weeks rest. He will now have had close to 7 months (from their WC loss in early Jan to the start of training camp coming up in late July) to have rested and rehabbed the foot. That's a lot of time for things to get better.


The closest thing I equate Garcon's foot injury to is Jacoby Ford's:


Jacoby Ford suffered a foot injury in Friday night's preseason game and was spotted on crutches in the locker room afterward. - Aug 18th, 2012



Raiders coach Dennis Allen said Sunday that Jacoby Ford's sprained foot has no structural damage and no swelling.

Although it's to the same foot that Ford sprained last season, costing him eight games, all signs point to a less severe injury this time around. Allen still wouldn't rule out the possibility of Ford missing some regular season action. - Aug 19th, 2012



Coach Dennis Allen referred to Jacoby Ford's foot injury as a "matter of pain."

That's usually what coaches say when they aren't happy with a player missing practice time. Ford is in a walking boot, but doesn't have any structural damage or swelling. Allen does not know if Ford will be ready for Week 1. - Aug 20th, 2012



Raiders WR/KR Jacoby Ford (foot) has shed his walking boot.

The Raiders are hoping to have Ford available for Week 1, and this is a step in the right direction. - Aug 27th, 2012



Raiders WR/KR Jacoby Ford (foot) conceded Tuesday that his status is "up in the air" for the season opener.

It's not looking good. Ford just resumed jogging on Tuesday after confirming that this injury is to the same spot as the one that sidelined him late last season. - Sep 4th, 2012



Jacoby Ford (foot) has been ruled out for Week 1.

With Ford not ready to return from injury, rookie receiver Rod Streater is poised for a big role on Monday night against the Chargers, either manning the slot or playing outside. The Raiders are erring on the side of caution with Ford, although it's concerning that he hasn't even resumed sprinting. - Sep 8th, 2012



Raiders WR/KR Jacoby Ford will undergo surgery to repair his injured foot.

Coach Dennis Allen expects Ford to miss a "significant" amount of time. We first became concerned for Ford's early-season availability when he acknowledged that the injury is essentially a repeat of the one that sidelined him for six games at mid-season a year ago. - Sep 11th, 2012



Then we have all the quotes from Antonio Gates during the 2011 season buildup, after coming off his 2010 foot injury:


Antonio Gates is "feeling really good" after a full offseason allowed him to recover from last year's plantar fascia injury.

Coach Norv Turner revealed in late May that Gates was fully recovered from the injury that shut him down in December. Gates has participated in players-only workouts with teammates, and should be full go for training camp. Prior to the injury, Gates was averaging nearly six points more per week than the next closest fantasy tight end. - Jul 8th, 2011



Antonio Gates concedes that plantar fasciitis is still "an issue," but promises no one will be able to tell from his play this season.

Gates insists he feels great and still expects to have a big year. H e had consistently played well through injuries before the end of last season, so we trust his judgment. While the Bolts plan to bring Gates along slowly in training camp, he remains Rotoworld's top-ranked fantasy tight end. - Jul 28th, 2011



Chargers placed TE Antonio Gates (foot) on active/PUP.

Gates may only be day to day -- the Chargers have been clear that they'll ease him into camp -- but it's concerning that he's not recovered from his torn plantar fascia after a full offseason to heal. Gates promises that he'll gut out the foot problems again, but it's not out of the question that the Chargers put will put him on a snap count. Gates is 31 years old with injuries to both feet. As for "active/PUP," he can be removed at any time in camp. - Jul 29th, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) said he would play if there was a game this week.

Gates is not expected to practice for at least another week as his plantar fasciitis continues to linger. The concern here is that this kind of injury can't truly be fixed -- Gates didn't have surgery this offseason -- it can only be maintained. He is likely heading for another season of rarely practicing and playing through pain, something he's shown he can do at an elite level. Still, there's concern here considering how much fantasy owners will have to pay to land Gates. - Jul 30th, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) is planning to practice on Thursday.

Still dealing with the case of plantar fasciitis that hobbled him last season, Gates has yet to take the field this summer. He has said he'd be playing if it were the regular season, however, and even if he ends up not returning tomorrow, his injury isn't yet anything to worry about.. - Aug 3rd, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) has passed his physical.

He'll now presumably come off the active/PUP list and begin practicing in earnest after participating in 11-on-11 drills on Thursday. Gates may have passed his physical, but his case of plantar fasciitis is expected to remain an issue all season. However, after eight months of rest, it shouldn't be nearly as big of one as it was in 2010. - Aug 6th, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) returned to a full practice Sunday, putting a "smile" on his face.

Gates says he still deals with soreness from the plantar fasciitis because it's a gradual process, but the foot is improving. "That's the positive reinforcement," said Gates, who said Sunday's practice was a "really, really good sign for me." This is what we were waiting to hear, as previous reports suggested Gates would be a draft-day gamble for health reasons. It sounds like the improvement is genuine. Barring a setback over the next week or two, Gates is locked in as the No. 1 tight end. - Aug 14th, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) participated in a full practice for the third straight day Tuesday.

It certainly looks like he's over the hump. Beat writer Kevin Acee has placed Gates in the category where the next update will be only when he misses a practice. A healthy Gates is the no-brainer No. 1 fantasy tight end. - Aug 16th, 2011



Beat writer Kevin Acee confirms that there "appears little doubt that [Antonio] Gates will be 100 percent (or close to it) for the season opener."

Gates practiced again on Thursday, his fifth straight day. It's an incredibly positive sign as he deals with the lingering effects of plantar fasciitis. At this point, fantasy owners should have no qualms about selecting our No. 1 tight end on draft day. The 2011 Draft Guide projects 1,006 yards and 10 touchdowns for Gates. - Aug 18th, 2011



Antonio Gates led the Chargers with eight receptions and 74 yards against the Vikings in Week 1.

Still Philip Rivers' go-to receiver, Gates was targeted 13 times -- four more than other Charger. He did have the opportunity for a touchdown in traffic, but couldn't hold onto the ball after taking a hard hit. Gates' foot was not an issue this week (wait for it...). There's not a better tight end to own going forward. - Sep 11, 2011



Antonio Gates confirmed that he felt "great" during Sunday's win and practiced fully on Wednesday.

At this point, it feels silly to give updates on Gates' plantar fasciitis because he's clearly over it (LULZ). He racked up 13 targets last week, his second-highest number of the Philip Rivers era. Gates is locked and loaded for a monster season. - Sep 15th, 2011



Antonio Gates was held without a catch in San Diego's Week 2 loss to the Patriots.

Enveloped by Patriots defenders all afternoon, the Chargers' all-world tight end drew only one target. Although it was obvious New England made locking up Philip Rivers' favorite target a point of emphasis, it's hard to believe a healthy Gates would ever be held without a reception. We can only hope Gates' lingering case of plantar fasciitis didn't play a part in his disappearing act... - Sep 18th, 2011



Antonio Gates was held catch-less in Week 2 because the Patriots smothered him with defenders, using double and triple teams.

The Pats hit Gates at the line, covered him with two defenders, and bracketed him out of the play on downfield routes. The Chargers tried countering it by moving Gates outside (and Vincent Jackson to the slot), but the Patriots didn't change their defensive approach. V-Jax lit up New England for 10 catches, 172 yards, and two touchdowns, of course. Gates owners shouldn't expect this kind of coverage for their early-round fantasy pick every week. - Sep 18th, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) was held out of Chargers practice Wednesday.

There has been speculation that Gates' foot problems played a role in his catch-less Week 2 performance, but nothing substantial to back them up. We might have something now. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, Gates "appeared to be in some minor discomfort due to his lingering foot injury" after the loss to the Patriots. It's a situation worth tracking closely. - Sep 21st, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) was held out of practice again on Thursday.

This is becoming a legitimate concern. Gates was obviously at less than full strength against the Patriots. A team insider told Pro Football Weekly last week that Gates can rule out being 100 percent healthy "for the rest of his career," as the injury has robbed him of the speed and athleticism needed as a vertical threat. Reliable beat writer Kevin Acee is giving Mike Tolbert (calf) a better chance than Gates to play this week. - Sep 22nd, 2011



As of Thursday night, Antonio Gates (foot) was not believed to be in jeopardy of missing Sunday's game against the Chiefs.

Gates has yet to practice this week, but the North County Times considers all starters likely to play except Malcom Floyd (groin). Check back Friday afternoon for Gates' practice participation. - Sep 23rd, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot), Vincent Jackson (abdomen), and Mike Tolbert (toe) all returned to Chargers practice Friday.

Jackson's injury was of the least concern, and he's certain to start against the Chiefs. Gates' status may be a bit more touch-and-go, but his return to the practice field indicates he'll also be out there. Tolbert figures to return to his primary third-down and red-zone role. Gates' foot could cause him to miss large chunks of practice time all year, so fantasy owners will have to monitor him closely. Whenever Gates is in the Chargers' lineup, however, he'll remain an elite, top-3 fantasy tight end play. - Sep 23rd, 2011



Updating a previous item, Antonio Gates (foot) retreated into the Chargers' facility after going only through individual drills at the start of Friday's practice.

We'll know more in a few hours, but Gates may be headed for a doubtful tag after his attempt to practice apparently didn't go so well. Randy McMichael is the Chargers' backup tight end. Vincent Jackson (abdomen) and Mike Tolbert (toe) are both expected to play against the Chiefs. Chargers beat writer Kevin Acee is now skeptical that Gates will join them in the lineup. - Sep 23rd, 2011



Antonio Gates (foot) is listed as questionable for Week 3 after going through very limited drills in Friday's practice.

Signs coming out of San Diego aren't overly encouraging for Gates, and he looks to be a full-blown game-time decision for Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs. Kansas City-San Diego has a 4:05ET start. Because of the risk associated with Gates' lingering foot injury, it's advisable to use alternatives in Sunday's early games. If not, Randy McMichael is behind Gates on the depth chart. - Sep 23rd, 2011



Updating a previous item, Antonio Gates (foot, questionable) did not participate in any portions of Friday's practice.

He didn't practice all week. Gates has the ability to play without any practice -- he's done it before -- but it can't be a good sign that he tried to practice Friday and just couldn't do it. Hopefully, we'll get a better read on Gates' potential availability against the Chiefs by Sunday morning. For now, fantasy owners should be exploring options in earlier Sunday games. - Sep 23rd, 2011



Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune speculates that Antonio Gates (foot, questionable) will play in Week 3.

"I would think that Antonio Gates will get out there and play," Acee told XX 1090 San Diego. "... I think that Gates gets out and plays." Acee does point out that it's only the third game of the year, and on paper at least, the Chargers shouldn't have trouble waxing the Chiefs without some of their top players. We'll have updates on Gates whenever news breaks before Sunday. - Sep 23rd, 2011



Team sources tell Profootballtalk.com that Antonio Gates (foot) will not play Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Chargers are two-touchdown favorites, and this is a perfect spot to give him some rest. Gates' foot could be an issue for the rest of his career, so one game off isn't going to suddenly solve the issue, but owners should wait until he misses time against a stronger opponent before panicking. Randy McMichael is the next man up and is worth a look as a TE2. Philip Rivers figures to be locked onto Vincent Jackson as much as he was in Week 2, if that's possible. - Sep 24th, 2011



ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports that there is a tear in Antonio Gates' foot, and he won't be playing Sunday against Kansas City.

The tear is believed to be to Gates' plantar fascia. He was able to play through the same injury at times last year, but ultimately had to shut it down for good later in the season. It's a major concern for Gates' fantasy value moving forward. Multiple reports now claim that Gates will be inactive against the Chiefs. Vincent Jackson projects as the primary beneficiary in terms of production. Randy McMichael will be the starting tight end. - Sep 25th, 2011



Antonio Gates admitted he's considering resting for another 3-5 weeks so he can finish the season without interruption.

Gates will see specialists this week to determine his course of action. He tore the scar tissue that had built up in his right foot during the fourth quarter of the Week 2 loss to the Patriots. Now it's unclear if rest will even help, meaning he could end just endure the weekly pain and "cycle" of uncertainty. We should know more within the next couple days. - Sep 27th, 2011


What's that? I think there's a song for this...




Wearing special shoes should only help.


Pierre Garcon's "special shoes":

Posted Image


They'd better be magical, because that's the only way I see him actually playing a full season...

- If his foot is really going to be a problem, I think we will know about its sometime during either training camp or preseason games. If things don't look or sound good, then I have no problem if owners want to completely avoid Garcon. There is also the distinct possibility that the foot has healed well and will not cause any major problems for 2013. Again though, we should have a very good idea on where things stand before most drafts occur in late August.


For the bold part - reread the Antonio Gates saga above.

- I am counting 6 weeks in which both RGIII & Garcon were healthy and playing together (weeks 1, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17). Garcon's avg standard pts per week over those 6 weeks comes out to 12.65. Extrapolating that over 16 weeks puts him at 202 fantasy pts for the season. That makes him a top 5 fantasy WR last season. That is the realistic upside that he has for 2013.


I really don't see how it makes any sense to extrapolate a guy who is COMING INTO THE SEASON ALREADY INJURED to play the full 16 games...ludicrous / irrelevant logic. Your logic is:

Posted Image

Based on the above, I will be very inclined to draft Garcon anytime after rd 5, so long as a problem with his foot does not recur during TC or PS. Draft those other question marks at WR over him at your own loss.


Good luck. You'll need these:

Posted Image

Posted Image


...and of course, if you want to read more Antonio Gates day-by-day reports, just go back to that timeframe (2010/2011 seasons) here:

http://www.rotoworld...1/antonio-gates

and Jacoby Ford:

http://www.rotoworld...789/jacoby-ford

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. RB - Adrian Peterson......(01.03)
WR1: Malcom Floyd...........(14.14)............. RB - Matt Asiata..........(UD.FA)
WR2: Eddie Royal............(UD.FA)............. RB - Juwan Thompson.......(16.12)
RB1: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. RB - Damien Williams......(16.10)
RB2: Eddie Lacy.............(01.05)............. RB - LaMichael James......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: RB Branden Oliver....(UD.FA)............. TE - Austin Sef-Jenkins...(UD.FA)
FLEX2: RB Steven Jackson....(04.02)............. WR - Donte Moncrief.......(UD.FA)
TE : Travis Kelce...........(15.12)............. WR/IR Marquess Wilson.....(UD.FA)

#19 El_Chingon

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:53 PM

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  • jetfan1983 and TB44 like this

#20 FFCollusion

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 05:00 PM

Okay, so you expect him to get injured... who cares? You still have to place a value on that.
Let's say he only plays half the season.
Where do you draft a WR1 upside WR, who plays 8 games?
Everyone is constantly spamming how deep the WR position is, so why isn't it okay to spend a 6th round pick, on an 8 week WR1, and then replace him with a WR2-3 that you likely would have drafted anyways in that round? Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, Eric Decker, these are the guys being passed up for Garcon it seems? Does anyone expect any 3 of these guys to produce top 10 WR points? Is a full year of WR2 value, more end of season points, than 8 weeks of WR1 and 8 weeks of WR3?

The cutoff for a WR1 is 11.4
The cutoff for a WR2 is 10.2
The cutoff for a WR3 is 8.4

WR1 + WR3 91.2 + 67.2 = 158.4 points
WR2 16*10 = 163.2 points

So I'd say the cutoff is actually 9 games to break even.
If he plays 9 games at WR1 value, then you break even on passing up a WR2 in the 6th round.
If he plays less you lose, if he plays more, you win.
There is also the upside, that because of how deep WR is, you get better replacement value than WR3 in the event Garcon gets injured.

I'm not personally drafting Garcon, unless he falls pretty far. Denario Alexander is in an extremely similar situation, where he put up WR1 numbers, but likely won't make it through a full season, and can be had 2 full rounds later, with the benefit of full health entering the season. But all of this focus on 'year end' or 'total points' is rather ridiculous, 99% of us don't play in total points leagues, so why should we care? There's a lot of guys who fall into this category, where people who only care about 'end of season points' from a single guy, just don't seem able to comprehend that 'more points' can be had, from 2 separate players.
I do it for the likes...




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