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Kyle Rudolph 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 Deadpool

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 08:14 AM

Currently doing work at Larry Fitzgerald's camp.

https://pbs.twimg.co...Ei0Es.jpg:large

May be the safest low end TE1. Can he climb to top 5?

Ponder needs to take the next step, but last year was Rudolph's first time playing in-line TE, and he's apparently a lot more comfortable this year.
  • Robrain and scienergy like this
12 Team Keeper, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, Bryce Brown
WR: Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon
TE: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
RB: Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, Jeremy Hill
WR: Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Josh Gordon
TE: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

#2 scienergy

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 08:25 AM

Thanks for reporting he's working with Fitz. Seems like every player who visits the FItz breaks out in a big way the following season. The only thing holding back Rudolph is Ponder.

If the Pro Bowl game is any indication, red nose is going to be hitting the red zone A LOT. Looking forward to seeing if he can do better after the catch in open field. He always seemed to go down on the first hit, it was a little frustrating to watch last season. He needs to get more physical and brute some dudes around and I believe he will dominate in true Gronk-style.

#3 Robrain

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 10:30 AM

How many TE's attend/have ever attended Fitz's camp? Rudolph's the first I've personally heard of doing so, but I could very well be wrong about that.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Malcom Floyd.........(14.14)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - John Brown...........(UD.FA)
RB2: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. WR - Cody Latimer.........(13.09)
WR1: Brian Quick............(14.08)............. RB - Toby Gerhart.........(02.02)
WR2: Allen Hurns............(UD.FA)............. RB - Bernard Pierce.......(07.14)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Latavius Murray......(13.12)
FLEX1: Justin Forsett.......(UD.FA)............. RB - Devonta Freeman......(09.01)
FLEX2: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - CJ Anderson..........(09.11)

#4 scienergy

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:35 PM

First I've heard of, but then again, I've yet to ever find a list of attendees each year. In doing a quick search I did find that several Cardinals will be there this year incl all QB & TE Housler & WR Roberts. Rudolph attended last year too. Seeing how the camp is held in Minneapolis it would make sense for many Vikings to attend (wonder if Patterson will be there).

Edited by scienergy, 10 July 2013 - 02:36 PM.


#5 DocJ

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:41 PM

May be the safest low end TE1.


I'm a homer but I tend to agree with this.

Rudolph is going in the 8th, Cook in the 9th. I could see myself loading up on RB/WR in rounds 1-6, taking Luck in the 7th then Rudolph and Cook or heck, if Ponder looks improved in pre-season games and you think it will carry over just take Rudolph and call it good.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#6 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:25 PM

He was a roller coaster last season. His game log is all over the place and he was maddening to own. This is from Matthew Berry's Draft Manifesto, which is mostly novice-level drivel but this piece portrays how ridiculously inconsistent Rudolph was in 2013:

Let's turn once again to Tristan Cockcroft's Consistency Rankings. Now the idea of his consistency rankings is, well, consistency. Again, we play the game over the course of a year but truthfully, it's actually 13 weekly games and then the playoffs. So how many of those weeks was a particular player worth starting? Under Tristan's system, a tight end was considered a "start" if his point total made him top 10 at his position. And the third-most consistent tight end last year was the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph, who finished the year as the ninth-highest-scoring tight end.
Now, Tristan also gives out a "stiff" rating, defined as the number of weeks a player's point total ranked among the worst at his position. In other words, since his article is about week-to-week consistency, what top-10 tight end had the most weeks in which he was brutal, the most weeks in which you would have been better starting pretty much anyone else off the waiver wire? Kyle Rudolph, with seven such games. In fact, Rudolph had four different games with zero, count 'em, zero fantasy points. Might as well have left him on your bench and started me instead.

Think about that. The third-most consistent tight end last year was also a guy who was among the worst at his position in half the weeks.

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#7 smeeze

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 06:54 AM

He was a roller coaster last season. His game log is all over the place and he was maddening to own. This is from Matthew Berry's Draft Manifesto, which is mostly novice-level drivel but this piece portrays how ridiculously inconsistent Rudolph was in 2013:

Let's turn once again to Tristan Cockcroft's Consistency Rankings. Now the idea of his consistency rankings is, well, consistency. Again, we play the game over the course of a year but truthfully, it's actually 13 weekly games and then the playoffs. So how many of those weeks was a particular player worth starting? Under Tristan's system, a tight end was considered a "start" if his point total made him top 10 at his position. And the third-most consistent tight end last year was the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph, who finished the year as the ninth-highest-scoring tight end.
Now, Tristan also gives out a "stiff" rating, defined as the number of weeks a player's point total ranked among the worst at his position. In other words, since his article is about week-to-week consistency, what top-10 tight end had the most weeks in which he was brutal, the most weeks in which you would have been better starting pretty much anyone else off the waiver wire? Kyle Rudolph, with seven such games. In fact, Rudolph had four different games with zero, count 'em, zero fantasy points. Might as well have left him on your bench and started me instead.
Think about that. The third-most consistent tight end last year was also a guy who was among the worst at his position in half the weeks.


Christian. Ponder.

12 Team / H2H / Standard Scoring / 3 Keepers / $$$ / (6-1)

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 R/W/T, 1 K, 1 DST

 

QB - Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler
RB - Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Zac Stacy, Christine Michael,

        Juwan Thompson, Tavaris Cadet, Benny Cunningham, Stevan Ridley

WR - Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Brian Quick, Justin Hunter
TE - Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce
K - Cody Parkey
DST - Streamers

 


#8 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 07:02 AM

As many other people have pointed out Christian Ponder is the biggest challenge to Rudolph. Targets are going to have to go to Jennings and Patterson in a run first offense. He's a high upside TE2 week to week but nothing more.

#9 Deadpool

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 08:25 AM

As many other people have pointed out Christian Ponder is the biggest challenge to Rudolph. Targets are going to have to go to Jennings and Patterson in a run first offense. He's a high upside TE2 week to week but nothing more.


TE2? That's way too low.
12 Team Keeper, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, Bryce Brown
WR: Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon
TE: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
RB: Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, Jeremy Hill
WR: Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Josh Gordon
TE: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

#10 smeeze

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 08:40 AM


As many other people have pointed out Christian Ponder is the biggest challenge to Rudolph. Targets are going to have to go to Jennings and Patterson in a run first offense. He's a high upside TE2 week to week but nothing more.


TE2? That's way too low.


Definitely. His numbers at the end of the season will probably be top-10, but, as SenatorSpaceman pointed out it's the feast-or-famine production that will ultimately hurt you more than help you. If you can identify the matchups and start him for his big days and bench him for his donuts you'll be sitting pretty. If I end up waiting on TE in my drafts I'm going to make sure to pair Rudolph up with a Cook/Olsen/Cameron/Bennett.

12 Team / H2H / Standard Scoring / 3 Keepers / $$$ / (6-1)

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 R/W/T, 1 K, 1 DST

 

QB - Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler
RB - Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Zac Stacy, Christine Michael,

        Juwan Thompson, Tavaris Cadet, Benny Cunningham, Stevan Ridley

WR - Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Brian Quick, Justin Hunter
TE - Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce
K - Cody Parkey
DST - Streamers

 


#11 Alfonz289

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 08:41 AM

I had Rudy last year. He won me some weeks, also lost me a few weeks posting goose eggs. He was pretty much the poster boy for "boom or bust". The overall stats were there at the end of the year but in head to head matchups, he was far too inconsistent. Can't put all the blame on Rudy though as Ponder was very erratic as seemed the coaching staff in their usage of him. The offense runs through Adrian clearly, Rudy has to get his in the red zone. Relying on those TD's makes him a high upside TE2 in my opinion as well.
2014 Fantasy Football 12 Team Dynasty League 0.5 PPR All TD's 6pts IDP (2DL, 2LB, 2DB)

QB's-Jay Cutler
RB's-Adrian Peterson, C.J. Spiller, Zac Stacy, Christine Michael, Jerrick McKinnon
WR's-Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, Michael Floyd, Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, Sammy Watkins, Jermaine Kearse
TE's-Julius Thomas, Eric Ebron
K's-Steven Hauschka
DL's-Ziggy Ansah, Chandler Jones
LB's-Bobby Wagner, Alec Ogletree
DB's-Kenny Vaccaro, Roman Harper

2 2015 first round picks.

#12 DocJ

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 09:01 AM

I should clarify 8th round in standard, in ppr I would rank him a full round later. In ppr I would maybe take Cook ahead of him but not by much. I like Rudolph as one of the TEs in the "wait really late on TE" strategy, i.e. waiting until the 8-10 rounds to pick up 2TE that have big upside but a lower floor than other players.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#13 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 12:12 PM

I should clarify 8th round in standard, in ppr I would rank him a full round later. In ppr I would maybe take Cook ahead of him but not by much. I like Rudolph as one of the TEs in the "wait really late on TE" strategy, i.e. waiting until the 8-10 rounds to pick up 2TE that have big upside but a lower floor than other players.


I'm also planning to wait a while before considering a TE this year but I definitely wouldn't classify drafting a TE in round 8 to be "waiting really late", considering there are only about 5 TEs with ADPs earlier than the 8th round.

Taking a TE in that area is actually relatively early, rather than really late.

#14 DocJ

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 12:52 PM


I should clarify 8th round in standard, in ppr I would rank him a full round later. In ppr I would maybe take Cook ahead of him but not by much. I like Rudolph as one of the TEs in the "wait really late on TE" strategy, i.e. waiting until the 8-10 rounds to pick up 2TE that have big upside but a lower floor than other players.


I'm also planning to wait a while before considering a TE this year but I definitely wouldn't classify drafting a TE in round 8 to be "waiting really late", considering there are only about 5 TEs with ADPs earlier than the 8th round.

Taking a TE in that area is actually relatively early, rather than really late.


Point taken. I'll qualify that by adding "...and still be highly likely to draft a TE1." I think after Olsen in the 10th (which I really like as well) you're getting into TE flyer territory like Cameron and Bennett (also options I like btw) but with fairly low floors.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#15 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 01:15 PM

I like Finley or Olsen. They look like good buys at their current ADPs. Bennett is a great value right now and I think Owen Daniels value is off the charts. Same with Pettigrew.

#16 Deadpool

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 01:24 PM

His 8th round ADP may be a bit high, but when I saw he was still available in the 11th round I could not pass.
12 Team Keeper, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, Bryce Brown
WR: Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon
TE: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
RB: Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, Jeremy Hill
WR: Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Josh Gordon
TE: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

#17 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 02:02 PM

I will have zero Rudolph's this year, way too inconsistent for my tastes (currently the #15 TE on my board). I can count on one finger the number of games he was a weekly TE1 last year if he didn't score a TD (Week 1, 5-67 against JAC); throw in a trio of donuts (including the first round of most Fantasy Playoffs, and another SIX games of 3 or less catches -- two of those in the Fantasy Playoffs) and you've got one of the worst types of players for H2H fantasy formats. He's definitely a TE1 in full season Total Point formats, but I'm going no where near him in H2H leagues.

So long as Christian Ponder is the MIN QB, Rudolph is only a younger, slightly more talented version of Scott Chandler.

#18 Robrain

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 02:04 PM

I really think I'd rather take Finley at his 12th round ADP than Rudolph. Rodgers > Ponder.

As much as I think Rudolph has TE1 upside, just like Jared Cook did in TEN, he isn't utilized like a true TE1. Which makes him a high upside, boom-or-bust TE2 in my eyes (boom or bust players are always high upside).

In a 12-team league, a TE1 has to be at least Top-6 come end of the season. This means, on average, that TE1 should have given you an advantage at that position against over HALF (6/11) the opposing teams in the league. That's, to me, the value of getting a TE1, a WR1, an RB1, a QB1, whatever position it is (K1? Go Gee Zee!).

Rudolph is much more valuable in TD-heavy leagues than standard or PPR, for sure.

Are there more than 6 TE's that have TE1 upside? Sure. But just having upside isn't enough to make it so. To make it actually happen. A guy in a bad situation (Rudolph) has worse odds (imo) of reaching that Top-6 status by the end of the season than many of the other TE1-upside players.

I expect the teams in my 12-team league to have the 2nd best, 3rd best, 4th best, 5th best, 6th best, 7th best, 8th best, 9th best, 10th best, 11th best, and 12th best players at each position in their starting lineup.

Thus, I would never roster/draft a TE that I felt was the 13th best. If I'm going to aim THAT low, I might as well just throw a dart at the wall and draft whatever TE it hits, even if that guy is the 3rd-string TE for the Dolphins. Because neither that guy, or the 13th-best TE is going to give me any advantage at that position (TE) in my weekly matchups.

Which brings me to my point - no one is saying that Rudolph is bad. I honestly wish the Patriots would finagle a trade for him, then I'd be all over him. He's a pretty good TE in a pretty bad situation (run-first offense which runs through AP, Ponder is not a stellar QB, two good WR's in Jennings and they just drafted Patterson, so losing Harvin may not equate to a significant uptick in targets for Rudolph).

The situation is what limits his upside. Is he a Top-10 TE by the end of the season? Perhaps (this is that "upside" everyone is referring to). But is he a surefire Top-6 TE? Given the circumstances of the team he's on, I doubt it. I'd say there's less than a 15% chance that Rudolph ends up as a Top-6 TE for standard leagues. He'll likely do even worse in PPR leagues. TD-heavy leagues? I don't think he'll be Top-6, but if he's somehow used in a massive red-zone role this season, perhaps he could reach 5th best or 6th best TE in THAT SPECIFIC FORMAT (TD-heavy). But I'm in a TD-heavy league, and I won't be drafting him unless he's available at earliest in the 10th or 12th rounds.

http://fantasyfootba...tor.com/adp.php

That list has his current ADP as 8.02 in 12-team standards. Ahead of Cook, Gates, Finley, Bennett Cameron, and a host of other TE's. You'd be drafting him there as the 7th-best TE. I think that's a reach.

I owned Rudolph, Bennett, and Pitta on most of my teams last season (multiple formats).

These are the lines each TE ended the season with:
Bennett:
55 receptions / 626 receiving yards / 5 TDs
Rudolph:
53 receptions / 493 receiving yards / 9 TDs
Pitta:
61 receptions / 669 receiving yards / 7 TDs

Antonio Gates line during his injury-plagued 2010/2011 seasons:
50 receptions / 782 receiving yards / 10 TDs (10 games played)
64 receptions / 778 receiving yards / 7 TDs (13 games played)

From 2004-2010, Antonio Gates never had less than 8 receiving TDs in any season:
13, 10, 9, 9, 8, 8, 10

From 2004-2009 (before his foot injury), these were his yardage totals:
964
1,101
924
984
704
1,157

So forgive me if I'm not at ALL impressed by...
Rudolph:
493 receiving yards
Bennett:
626 receiving yards
Pitta:
669 receiving yards

I'm looking for the next great TE, not merely any guy to slot into my lineup. Neither Rudolph, Bennett, or Pitta have truly shown that they're capable of hitting that 1,000 receiving yard mark. Rudolph likely won't see enough targets, same with Bennett in a new offense, and while I'd suggest Pitta does have that potential upside (out of the three TE's mentioned), I don't have confidence that he'll actually attain north of 900 receiving yards. The dual-TE thing the Ravens have going with Ed Dickson is just one reason I'm pessimistic when it comes to Pitta's true upside. Pitta is not in Aaron Hernandez's situation (football-related). Pitta does not line up on the same field as Rob Gronkowski. Pitta does not line up on the same field as Wes Welker. Pitta does not have mastermind Tom Brady throwing to him.

Anyone thinking that either Rudolph, Bennett, or Pitta is likely to reach the Top-6 for TE's...well, I feel you're reaching (maaaybe Pitta in PPR).
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Malcom Floyd.........(14.14)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - John Brown...........(UD.FA)
RB2: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. WR - Cody Latimer.........(13.09)
WR1: Brian Quick............(14.08)............. RB - Toby Gerhart.........(02.02)
WR2: Allen Hurns............(UD.FA)............. RB - Bernard Pierce.......(07.14)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Latavius Murray......(13.12)
FLEX1: Justin Forsett.......(UD.FA)............. RB - Devonta Freeman......(09.01)
FLEX2: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - CJ Anderson..........(09.11)

#19 Robrain

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 02:07 PM

I like Finley or Olsen. They look like good buys at their current ADPs. Bennett is a great value right now and I think Owen Daniels value is off the charts. Same with Pettigrew.


I don't get people's fascination with Owen Daniels. He hasn't had more than 716 receiving yards since 2008. Notably, the Texans have discovered a guy named Arian Foster since then, and selected WR DeAndre Hopkins in the first round. I don't see Owen Daniels having a sudden renaissance with those factors working against him. It doesn't matter that you can get him "late". You can get a whole host of TE's with stunted upside late, lol.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Malcom Floyd.........(14.14)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - John Brown...........(UD.FA)
RB2: Arian Foster...........(01.11)............. WR - Cody Latimer.........(13.09)
WR1: Brian Quick............(14.08)............. RB - Toby Gerhart.........(02.02)
WR2: Allen Hurns............(UD.FA)............. RB - Bernard Pierce.......(07.14)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Latavius Murray......(13.12)
FLEX1: Justin Forsett.......(UD.FA)............. RB - Devonta Freeman......(09.01)
FLEX2: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - CJ Anderson..........(09.11)

#20 DocJ

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 02:37 PM

I happen to really like Daniels as a player but imo the only reason why he had a slight resurgance last season 62-716-6 (15 games) is because Dreessen went to DEN (300+ yards/5 tds in 2011) and HOU seriously had no WR2 options last season. Clearly Schaub is comfortable with him but his ceiling is really low this season.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)





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