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Monta Ellis 2013-2014 Season Outlook


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#1 aaa1

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 07:37 PM

I was hoping for big things from Monta this year, I thought he could put up monster numbers as the primary ball handler on a new team. Unfortunately he landed in Dallas with Jose Calderon, so Ellis' numbers may not see the increase I imagined before free agency.

Luckily Devin Harris is no longer signing with Dallas, so Ellis stands to play a lot at SG as well as some PG duties. What do you expect to see from Monta as a Maverick?
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#2 lbjames6

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 07:45 PM

I was hoping for big things from Monta this year, I thought he could put up monster numbers as the primary ball handler on a new team. Unfortunately he landed in Dallas with Jose Calderon, so Ellis' numbers may not see the increase I imagined before free agency.

Luckily Devin Harris is no longer signing with Dallas, so Ellis stands to play a lot at SG as well as some PG duties. What do you expect to see from Monta as a Maverick?


Same 'ol same 'ol really. Ball dominate guard that loves to shoot and take crazy layup attempts. His 3's are a little average. Still lots of turnovers. But he'll get his buckets, assists, and steals as usual. Solid SG option for fantasy, but in real life he's a strange fit for the Mavs.

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#3 Travis_Fryman#17

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 08:01 PM

Don't see any substantial change. Same ole gunner who will get his.
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#4 vnmslsrbms

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 08:39 PM

I would think that he gets more shots with a PG who passes alot more than Jennings (who prefers to take off balance jumpers leading to his low FG%). His main competition could be Carter, but he's slowing down and used to play SF anyway. All depends on matchups if Marion (is he still there?) will play PF. This team is a mess! I think their plan was to get Howard, but now that they couldn't, it's whatever they can piece together so it doesn't seem like they are wasting Nowitzki's final years. Which they are anyway.

So anyway, I think he produces somewhere in between what he was in Golden State and Milwaukee. Though if Mayo is a good comparison, he's probably not going to score that much if Nowitzki is healthy (definitely not 20 a game).
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#5 EatPrayLove

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 09:32 PM

Don't see any substantial change. Same ole gunner who will get his.


I like how the league is slowly moving away from the hype and sexiness of a 20ppg scorer and embracing a more moneyball advanced metrics approach. I gotta give credit to Morey and now the likes of Hollinger for making guys like Ellis secondary targets rather than the main attraction.
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#6 Heavy_Jon

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 06:17 PM


Don't see any substantial change. Same ole gunner who will get his.


I like how the league is slowly moving away from the hype and sexiness of a 20ppg scorer and embracing a more moneyball advanced metrics approach. I gotta give credit to Morey and now the likes of Hollinger for making guys like Ellis secondary targets rather than the main attraction.


Sabermetrics, slobbermetrics.... For those guys Allen Iverson is persona non grata, but what the guy did with that Phila team from 2001 was effin amazing...
Getting a prima-donna like D. Howard isn't a great moneyball move, call it like a black hole in offense whitout post game (in Hakeem's team, that's heresy) and a cancer in the lockeroom. This isn't baseball, in basketball, motion is of paramount importance, and having a guy like Monta can give you a championship, because he firmly believes that he's the best player in the world, and he's gonna take shots in moments where everybody plays hotpotato. Unlike baseball, basketball really needs that x-factor, that can't be measured, I remember who Hollinger picked to win that 2011 championship, but against all odds Dirk and sus muchacchos killed everybody in one of the most memorable playoff runs that I can recall, and Jason Terry was Dallas Monta. I mean, you don't have to look to the paper to know that Rudy Gay didn't fit in Memphis, because he wasn't much of a playmaker and he couldn't space the floor because he's a bad shooter that picks lousy places to be heavily contested. Most people will always prefer pizzazz over substance, so scoring alot of points or swating balls to orher state will allways catch the sportcenters, not the case of the majority of the members of this forum.

Edited by Heavy_Jon, 15 July 2013 - 06:20 PM.

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#7 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 08:16 PM

Thank God players like Blatche, Ellis, evans, Beasley, Bargs have been exposed for what they are

I like how the league is slowly moving away from the hype and sexiness of a 20ppg scorer and embracing a more moneyball advanced metrics approach. I gotta give credit to Morey and now the likes of Hollinger for making guys like Ellis secondary targets rather than the main attraction.


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#8 lbjames6

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 08:33 PM

This isn't baseball, in basketball, motion is of paramount importance, and having a guy like Monta can give you a championship, because he firmly believes that he's the best player in the world, and he's gonna take shots in moments where everybody plays hotpotato.


What? You couldn't be more wrong.
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#9 nickalero99

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 09:04 PM

I was very hesitant to buy into advanced metrics for basketball. There's a lot going on in basketball that does not show up in the stat sheet. For example, sometimes a guard driving the lane and drawing help may still be helping his team by freeing up offensive rebounders in the case of a miss. If the player misses, it looks bad on the stat sheet, but it very may well have set up an easy lay-in for a teammate and therefore served as more a pass than a missed shot. Calling a player inefficient doesn't always tell the whole story. You have to actually watch games to make the stats powerful.

In the case of Monta Ellis, I don't really even need efficiency ratings or true shooting percentage to know that he doesn't make a team better when he's in the starting lineup. Put him in there with a bunch of guys who can't create their own shots and he may help simply to allow a team to put a shot up, but it would take a seriously poor group of offensive players to make the best option in the lineup a Monta Ellis iso (which is pretty much his whole offense). He's a career 31.8% 3 point shooter and yet he shoots 3 a game. He's a poor FT shooter for a guard. His career shooting percentage is buoyed by some years in GS where he shot up to 53% in a season somehow (as well as a 48% year and some 45% years). His past few seasons have been well below average from the field putting him right around a 43% shooter from the field.

While that's somewhat of a statistical analysis of what Ellis does, when you watch him play you see a graphic version of the paragraph I just typed. He's too apt to rely on weak outside shooting. He passes only really when he can't find a shot. He likes to control the ball for the majority of the shot clock.

He's got a lot of great moves and he can be very fun to watch sometimes. The confidence that has been mentioned that makes him want to take the last shot is what is called irrational confidence. It's really the last thing I want in a basketball player. All of these guys were brought up as alpha dogs. The idea that some don't want the ball in their hands for the last shot is a total misnomer. Are there guys that have shrunk from the moment over time? Sure. Are most guys scared to shoot with the game on the line? No. They've all done it all the way up. Ellis has convinced himself he's better than players just because he's less passive/team oriented than they are and that's what I called a ball hog when I played.
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#10 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 09:42 PM

All world post and analysis there

I was very hesitant to buy into advanced metrics for basketball. There's a lot going on in basketball that does not show up in the stat sheet. For example, sometimes a guard driving the lane and drawing help may still be helping his team by freeing up offensive rebounders in the case of a miss. If the player misses, it looks bad on the stat sheet, but it very may well have set up an easy lay-in for a teammate and therefore served as more a pass than a missed shot. Calling a player inefficient doesn't always tell the whole story. You have to actually watch games to make the stats powerful.

In the case of Monta Ellis, I don't really even need efficiency ratings or true shooting percentage to know that he doesn't make a team better when he's in the starting lineup. Put him in there with a bunch of guys who can't create their own shots and he may help simply to allow a team to put a shot up, but it would take a seriously poor group of offensive players to make the best option in the lineup a Monta Ellis iso (which is pretty much his whole offense). He's a career 31.8% 3 point shooter and yet he shoots 3 a game. He's a poor FT shooter for a guard. His career shooting percentage is buoyed by some years in GS where he shot up to 53% in a season somehow (as well as a 48% year and some 45% years). His past few seasons have been well below average from the field putting him right around a 43% shooter from the field.

While that's somewhat of a statistical analysis of what Ellis does, when you watch him play you see a graphic version of the paragraph I just typed. He's too apt to rely on weak outside shooting. He passes only really when he can't find a shot. He likes to control the ball for the majority of the shot clock.

He's got a lot of great moves and he can be very fun to watch sometimes. The confidence that has been mentioned that makes him want to take the last shot is what is called irrational confidence. It's really the last thing I want in a basketball player. All of these guys were brought up as alpha dogs. The idea that some don't want the ball in their hands for the last shot is a total misnomer. Are there guys that have shrunk from the moment over time? Sure. Are most guys scared to shoot with the game on the line? No. They've all done it all the way up. Ellis has convinced himself he's better than players just because he's less passive/team oriented than they are and that's what I called a ball hog when I played.


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#11 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 09:45 PM

I was very hesitant to buy into advanced metrics for basketball. There's a lot going on in basketball that does not show up in the stat sheet. For example, sometimes a guard driving the lane and drawing help may still be helping his team by freeing up offensive rebounders in the case of a miss. If the player misses, it looks bad on the stat sheet, but it very may well have set up an easy lay-in for a teammate and therefore served as more a pass than a missed shot. Calling a player inefficient doesn't always tell the whole story. You have to actually watch games to make the stats powerful.

In the case of Monta Ellis, I don't really even need efficiency ratings or true shooting percentage to know that he doesn't make a team better when he's in the starting lineup. Put him in there with a bunch of guys who can't create their own shots and he may help simply to allow a team to put a shot up, but it would take a seriously poor group of offensive players to make the best option in the lineup a Monta Ellis iso (which is pretty much his whole offense). He's a career 31.8% 3 point shooter and yet he shoots 3 a game. He's a poor FT shooter for a guard. His career shooting percentage is buoyed by some years in GS where he shot up to 53% in a season somehow (as well as a 48% year and some 45% years). His past few seasons have been well below average from the field putting him right around a 43% shooter from the field.


Monta's shooting performances are pretty easy to figure out. In the year he shot .531, he barely attempted any 3 FG. 52 out of 1227 shots that year or .6 gm. He also shot a ridiculous 523 attempts at the rim where he shot 67.5%. Now, it was an overall fluky year for him as he was shooting great from everywhere but 3 pt land but basically shooting no 3's and going to the rim along with some good luck is how he shot that well. Except for that fluke year, his FG% from around the court are pretty consistent. The less 3's he takes and the more he takes it to the rim, they better he shoots overall. However, as you age as a player, it becomes important to shoot more consistently from perimeter b/c a loss of quickness (probably not a big problem for him now) and b/c your body doesn't want to take the punishment (probably a realistic reason at this time) as frequently. Monta's game may not age well if he doesn't figure out his shot mechanics.....
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#12 nickalero99

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 09:56 PM


I was very hesitant to buy into advanced metrics for basketball. There's a lot going on in basketball that does not show up in the stat sheet. For example, sometimes a guard driving the lane and drawing help may still be helping his team by freeing up offensive rebounders in the case of a miss. If the player misses, it looks bad on the stat sheet, but it very may well have set up an easy lay-in for a teammate and therefore served as more a pass than a missed shot. Calling a player inefficient doesn't always tell the whole story. You have to actually watch games to make the stats powerful.

In the case of Monta Ellis, I don't really even need efficiency ratings or true shooting percentage to know that he doesn't make a team better when he's in the starting lineup. Put him in there with a bunch of guys who can't create their own shots and he may help simply to allow a team to put a shot up, but it would take a seriously poor group of offensive players to make the best option in the lineup a Monta Ellis iso (which is pretty much his whole offense). He's a career 31.8% 3 point shooter and yet he shoots 3 a game. He's a poor FT shooter for a guard. His career shooting percentage is buoyed by some years in GS where he shot up to 53% in a season somehow (as well as a 48% year and some 45% years). His past few seasons have been well below average from the field putting him right around a 43% shooter from the field.


Monta's shooting performances are pretty easy to figure out. In the year he shot .531, he barely attempted any 3 FG. 52 out of 1227 shots that year or .6 gm. He also shot a ridiculous 523 attempts at the rim where he shot 67.5%. Now, it was an overall fluky year for him as he was shooting great from everywhere but 3 pt land but basically shooting no 3's and going to the rim along with some good luck is how he shot that well. Except for that fluke year, his FG% from around the court are pretty consistent. The less 3's he takes and the more he takes it to the rim, they better he shoots overall. However, as you age as a player, it becomes important to shoot more consistently from perimeter b/c a loss of quickness (probably not a big problem for him now) and b/c your body doesn't want to take the punishment (probably a realistic reason at this time) as frequently. Monta's game may not age well if he doesn't figure out his shot mechanics.....


Thank you PB. I didn't take the time to analyze the fluke year because I'm decided on the guy and just wanted to put a post with stats AND anecdotal, but I definitely had the cartoon ? over this math teacher's head when I saw that he had done that well in a season. I wish I could recall his game more at that time. Even his 2 point shooting was WAY above what it is now.

#13 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 10:08 PM



I was very hesitant to buy into advanced metrics for basketball. There's a lot going on in basketball that does not show up in the stat sheet. For example, sometimes a guard driving the lane and drawing help may still be helping his team by freeing up offensive rebounders in the case of a miss. If the player misses, it looks bad on the stat sheet, but it very may well have set up an easy lay-in for a teammate and therefore served as more a pass than a missed shot. Calling a player inefficient doesn't always tell the whole story. You have to actually watch games to make the stats powerful.

In the case of Monta Ellis, I don't really even need efficiency ratings or true shooting percentage to know that he doesn't make a team better when he's in the starting lineup. Put him in there with a bunch of guys who can't create their own shots and he may help simply to allow a team to put a shot up, but it would take a seriously poor group of offensive players to make the best option in the lineup a Monta Ellis iso (which is pretty much his whole offense). He's a career 31.8% 3 point shooter and yet he shoots 3 a game. He's a poor FT shooter for a guard. His career shooting percentage is buoyed by some years in GS where he shot up to 53% in a season somehow (as well as a 48% year and some 45% years). His past few seasons have been well below average from the field putting him right around a 43% shooter from the field.


Monta's shooting performances are pretty easy to figure out. In the year he shot .531, he barely attempted any 3 FG. 52 out of 1227 shots that year or .6 gm. He also shot a ridiculous 523 attempts at the rim where he shot 67.5%. Now, it was an overall fluky year for him as he was shooting great from everywhere but 3 pt land but basically shooting no 3's and going to the rim along with some good luck is how he shot that well. Except for that fluke year, his FG% from around the court are pretty consistent. The less 3's he takes and the more he takes it to the rim, they better he shoots overall. However, as you age as a player, it becomes important to shoot more consistently from perimeter b/c a loss of quickness (probably not a big problem for him now) and b/c your body doesn't want to take the punishment (probably a realistic reason at this time) as frequently. Monta's game may not age well if he doesn't figure out his shot mechanics.....


Thank you PB. I didn't take the time to analyze the fluke year because I'm decided on the guy and just wanted to put a post with stats AND anecdotal, but I definitely had the cartoon ? over this math teacher's head when I saw that he had done that well in a season. I wish I could recall his game more at that time. Even his 2 point shooting was WAY above what it is now.


His shooting numbers have really suffered since he went to Milwaukee. As some have noted, it may be hard for Monta to co-exist with another inefficient chucker on the team in Jennings. I would speculate the offensive systems in GS were much more friendly for him than the ones derived by Skiles. Don Nelson > Scott Skiles when it comes to O. He played one year under Keith Smart but I doubt the offensive system was changed drastically since he had just coached under Nelson for 4 years.
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#14 krupocin

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 10:16 PM

Sabermetrics, slobbermetrics.... For those guys Allen Iverson is persona non grata, but what the guy did with that Phila team from 2001 was effin amazing...
Getting a prima-donna like D. Howard isn't a great moneyball move, call it like a black hole in offense whitout post game (in Hakeem's team, that's heresy) and a cancer in the lockeroom. This isn't baseball, in basketball, motion is of paramount importance, and having a guy like Monta can give you a championship, because he firmly believes that he's the best player in the world, and he's gonna take shots in moments where everybody plays hotpotato. Unlike baseball, basketball really needs that x-factor, that can't be measured, I remember who Hollinger picked to win that 2011 championship, but against all odds Dirk and sus muchacchos killed everybody in one of the most memorable playoff runs that I can recall, and Jason Terry was Dallas Monta. I mean, you don't have to look to the paper to know that Rudy Gay didn't fit in Memphis, because he wasn't much of a playmaker and he couldn't space the floor because he's a bad shooter that picks lousy places to be heavily contested. Most people will always prefer pizzazz over substance, so scoring alot of points or swating balls to orher state will allways catch the sportcenters, not the case of the majority of the members of this forum.


Man, you can't talk about how flawed sabermetrics type analytics are, then go on to use the 2011 Dallas Mavs as an example haha. Dirk Nowitzki's career stats are like what every one of those guys jacks off to at night and that team was full of undervalued sabermerics type or efficiency game guys (Chandler, Kidd, Marion, Peja, etc). Also, say what you will about Terry, but comparing a former 6th man of the year who shot 45% FG ,40% from 3, 83% from the line, 17ppg career in the playoffs vs. Monta's 40% FG, 14% from 3, 66% from the line, 9.5ppg is just blasphemy. One is a cocky all around team player whose loved by his teammates, the other is a chucker and a thug (and I don't use that term lightly, I think there are very few true thugs in the NBA but the fact that this guy's body is an ode to the Mississippi Gangsters Disciples doesn't help his cause).

Also, forgiving all of that, I just can't agree with needing an Allen Iverson or a Monta Ellis on a championship team. I mean how may championships do those guys have? If you look at the Spurs and the Heat from these last finals, does any player on either of these teams fit that mold? No way, both teams are full of efficiency machines and team first guys. You know how many players on the Spurs or Heat could be putting up 2-3x better stats than they are in MIA/SA, but don't bc they buy into the team 1st strategy? Allen Iverson couldn't even handle coming off the bench as a 6th man (when he was so washed up he shouldn't have even been in the league) and ran away to Turkey or China or whatever he went. I'm sorry, I don't mean to totally bash your post, but I just couldn't disagree more, and I can't stand players like that.
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#15 nickalero99

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 10:18 PM

That chasm could not possibly be filled by coaching though. Don Nelson was much more gunner and transition guy friendly than anyone, but that is a huge gap. Can't see Rick Carlisle helping with that.

#16 nickalero99

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 10:23 PM


Sabermetrics, slobbermetrics.... For those guys Allen Iverson is persona non grata, but what the guy did with that Phila team from 2001 was effin amazing...
Getting a prima-donna like D. Howard isn't a great moneyball move, call it like a black hole in offense whitout post game (in Hakeem's team, that's heresy) and a cancer in the lockeroom. This isn't baseball, in basketball, motion is of paramount importance, and having a guy like Monta can give you a championship, because he firmly believes that he's the best player in the world, and he's gonna take shots in moments where everybody plays hotpotato. Unlike baseball, basketball really needs that x-factor, that can't be measured, I remember who Hollinger picked to win that 2011 championship, but against all odds Dirk and sus muchacchos killed everybody in one of the most memorable playoff runs that I can recall, and Jason Terry was Dallas Monta. I mean, you don't have to look to the paper to know that Rudy Gay didn't fit in Memphis, because he wasn't much of a playmaker and he couldn't space the floor because he's a bad shooter that picks lousy places to be heavily contested. Most people will always prefer pizzazz over substance, so scoring alot of points or swating balls to orher state will allways catch the sportcenters, not the case of the majority of the members of this forum.


Man, you can't talk about how flawed sabermetrics type analytics are, then go on to use the 2011 Dallas Mavs as an example haha. Dirk Nowitzki's career stats are like what every one of those guys jacks off to at night and that team was full of undervalued sabermerics type or efficiency game guys (Chandler, Kidd, Marion, Peja, etc). Also, say what you will about Terry, but comparing a former 6th man of the year who shot 45% FG ,40% from 3, 83% from the line, 17ppg career in the playoffs vs. Monta's 40% FG, 14% from 3, 66% from the line, 9.5ppg is just blasphemy. One is a cocky all around team player whose loved by his teammates, the other is a chucker and a thug (and I don't use that term lightly, I think there are very few true thugs in the NBA but the fact that this guy's body is an ode to the Mississippi Gangsters Disciples doesn't help his cause).

Also, forgiving all of that, I just can't agree with needing an Allen Iverson or a Monta Ellis on a championship team. I mean how may championships do those guys have? If you look at the Spurs and the Heat from these last finals, does any player on either of these teams fit that mold? No way, both teams are full of efficiency machines and team first guys. You know how many players on the Spurs or Heat could be putting up 2-3x better stats than they are in MIA/SA, but don't bc they buy into the team 1st strategy? Allen Iverson couldn't even handle coming off the bench as a 6th man (when he was so washed up he shouldn't have even been in the league) and ran away to Turkey or China or whatever he went. I'm sorry, I don't mean to totally bash your post, but I just couldn't disagree more, and I can't stand players like that.


I liked Iverson as much as anyone with a good basketball IQ has ever liked Allen Iverson. That said, he was not the reason the 76ers contended. They were a good defensive team at a time where the East was so weak that they were sending out teams that would have been mediocre in the West. Iverson did grab the bull by the horns in game 1 and then the Lakers quickly showed the West was WAY better. That Sixers team was not elite (for the East that year) because Iverson shot a lot, they were elite (for the East that year) because they played good defense.

#17 Dr. Evazan

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:35 AM

Did it surprise anyone here that the Mavs opted to pay Monta 6 mil more over 3 yrs then what Mayo got? Mayo feels like a much better 2 way player to me and seems more capable of playing within a system then Monta.
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#18 EatPrayLove

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:18 AM


This isn't baseball, in basketball, motion is of paramount importance, and having a guy like Monta can give you a championship, because he firmly believes that he's the best player in the world, and he's gonna take shots in moments where everybody plays hotpotato.


What? You couldn't be more wrong.


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#19 EatPrayLove

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:27 AM


I was very hesitant to buy into advanced metrics for basketball. There's a lot going on in basketball that does not show up in the stat sheet. For example, sometimes a guard driving the lane and drawing help may still be helping his team by freeing up offensive rebounders in the case of a miss. If the player misses, it looks bad on the stat sheet, but it very may well have set up an easy lay-in for a teammate and therefore served as more a pass than a missed shot. Calling a player inefficient doesn't always tell the whole story. You have to actually watch games to make the stats powerful.

In the case of Monta Ellis, I don't really even need efficiency ratings or true shooting percentage to know that he doesn't make a team better when he's in the starting lineup. Put him in there with a bunch of guys who can't create their own shots and he may help simply to allow a team to put a shot up, but it would take a seriously poor group of offensive players to make the best option in the lineup a Monta Ellis iso (which is pretty much his whole offense). He's a career 31.8% 3 point shooter and yet he shoots 3 a game. He's a poor FT shooter for a guard. His career shooting percentage is buoyed by some years in GS where he shot up to 53% in a season somehow (as well as a 48% year and some 45% years). His past few seasons have been well below average from the field putting him right around a 43% shooter from the field.


Monta's shooting performances are pretty easy to figure out. In the year he shot .531, he barely attempted any 3 FG. 52 out of 1227 shots that year or .6 gm. He also shot a ridiculous 523 attempts at the rim where he shot 67.5%. Now, it was an overall fluky year for him as he was shooting great from everywhere but 3 pt land but basically shooting no 3's and going to the rim along with some good luck is how he shot that well. Except for that fluke year, his FG% from around the court are pretty consistent. The less 3's he takes and the more he takes it to the rim, they better he shoots overall. However, as you age as a player, it becomes important to shoot more consistently from perimeter b/c a loss of quickness (probably not a big problem for him now) and b/c your body doesn't want to take the punishment (probably a realistic reason at this time) as frequently. Monta's game may not age well if he doesn't figure out his shot mechanics.....


It makes you wonder why he didn't keep doing what he was doing, instead he has fallen in love with jacking up long jumpers and 3s and his FG% has suffered greatly because of that.

I always think that there is a bit of self preservation in why guards do this.

#20 NyMetsfan5

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 10:57 AM

Did it surprise anyone here that the Mavs opted to pay Monta 6 mil more over 3 yrs then what Mayo got? Mayo feels like a much better 2 way player to me and seems more capable of playing within a system then Monta.

While i think Mayo is the superior player i dont think there is that much of a difference between the two and atleast Monta can handle the ball at points within in a game which Mayo has shown to be incapable of. I remember one game where he lost his dribble and turned it over about 3 times in the 4th quarter and gave the Mavs a loss
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