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Kemba Walker 2013-2014 Season Outlook


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#1 aaa1

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 06:59 PM

I have to admit I didn't expect Kemba Walker to improve as much as he did from rookie to sophomore year. I thought he would be one of those low percentage chuckers who wouldn't contribute much elsewhere, but boy was I wrong.

In year 2 he emerged as a great scorer, an elite stealer, and a pretty good assist man, all while significantly improving his FG%. Doubling his steals in just 7 more minutes per game is one of the more impressive fantasy improvements Ive seen from a young player.

What do you expect from Kemba this year? In my view there are two main questions:

A ) What effect will Al Jefferson have on Kemba's fantasy production?

B ) How much more will he improve?

The first question is much less clear to me. Jefferson's presence in the paint will help create space on the perimeter, but he's also a black hole who doesn't often pass out of the post. Kemba's assists could go up, but his usage and scoring could go down. Jefferson provides a weird equation of positives and negatives that I can't quite balance, so Im not sure if he's going to help or hinder Kemba.

The second question is much more clear to me. He played 27 mpg as a rook and 34 mpg as a sophomore, so he's battle tested. I see Kemba becoming a much better basketball player in year 3, though I can't be certain how that will manifest itself in his fantasy line.

I expect his steals to remain around 2 per game, while his scoring and made 3's increase. I love drafting players in year 3, especially when they have a nice progression of minutes over their early career. This is the kind of line I expect to see from an improved Kemba:

18 pts, 7 ast, 2 stl, 1.5 treys, 43% FG.

That's a very nice addition to your guard stats, but is it worth taking in the 30's, approximately where he's currently projected? For many teams, taking Kemba in round 4 could mean he's their PG1, is that something you'd be comfortable with?

Edited by aaa1, 16 July 2013 - 07:01 PM.

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#2 vnmslsrbms

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 11:58 PM

I'm generally not a fan of his FG%, but that's usually why I am weaker in assists in my teams.  Most PGs are not good shooters, but I also didn't think he would shoot that much better.  I think Al Jeff will help his game.  He's an inside threat and that will help with the spacing, as well as his finishing around the basket (not sure how good he is on that). He was a steal (figuratively and literally) last year, and I doubt he will be coming in at a discount.  I don't think he will improve that much over last year's numbers, but maybe a little.

#3 bloopy

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 01:03 AM

i remember that last year kemba had PG,SG eligibility which was dynamite for team builds. with the SG position being so shallow these days, kemba's 17pt/6ast/2stl and 1.5 3s statline is so valuable. i expect his stats/value to at least hold steady from last year. if he keeps his eligibilities, i would take him in the 30s and slot him as my SG1 without hesitation. combined with one of the generic mid-round PGs (dragic/holiday/lowry/teague), you'd be in good position to win asts/stls each week.

does anyone have a site/source that shows assisted FG rates? my gut feeling is that al jefferson will boost kemba's assists, but i'm not totally sure since i never watch jefferson play to know if he scores mainly off passes or isolation on the block.
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#4 TM92

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 03:59 AM

This post made me take the time to look at HoopData and Jefferson's assisted FG rate (54.5%), it's slightly below the league average (58.8%) - and while McRoberts (75.8%), Mullens (71.9%) and Biyombo (67.1%) are far worse scorers than Big Al, they relied a lot more on ball movement to score, while Al tends to isolate on the low block and score by himself.

I don't know what this means for Kemba's assists, I feel as though he can stay above 5 a game - so if he can maintain SG eligibility and his steal rate, he will be on my radar for next season.

#5 aaa1

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 06:39 AM

View Postbloopy, on 17 July 2013 - 01:03 AM, said:

does anyone have a site/source that shows assisted FG rates? my gut feeling is that al jefferson will boost kemba's assists, but i'm not totally sure since i never watch jefferson play to know if he scores mainly off passes or isolation on the block.

Not quite what you asked for, but here's synergy's profile for Jefferson. He posts up 45% of his possessions, thats among the highest in the league.

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#6 rncnomics

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 01:46 PM

One of the worst P&R guys last week, he's been working on that.. along with decision making.

I see Kemba still having elite stls, and I do think his assists goes up (but not bc of AL Jeff)

I'm interested to see where Zeller fits in, because he could be a really nice piece.
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#7 Kemmyn

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 12:25 AM

so given the choice who would you draft

Kemba or Jrue Holiday ??

#8 canaan_ko

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 01:07 AM

View PostKemmyn, on 26 September 2013 - 12:25 AM, said:

so given the choice who would you draft

Kemba or Jrue Holiday ??

I'd draft Kemba because Jrue turns the ball way too much. His TOs are great for a PG and that makes him a valuable asset.
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#9 Kemmyn

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 01:43 AM

I just traded for Jrue but was offered Kemba instead and when i looked at the stats Kemba actually looked the better player. So took the Kemba deal.

#10 ballsohard

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:52 PM

View Postbloopy, on 17 July 2013 - 01:03 AM, said:

does anyone have a site/source that shows assisted FG rates? my gut feeling is that al jefferson will boost kemba's assists, but i'm not totally sure since i never watch jefferson play to know if he scores mainly off passes or isolation on the block.

http://www.hoopdata....me=Al Jefferson

Look for %Ast.

#11 christian

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 04:16 PM

Would you guys draft Walker before Mike Conley?
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#12 Dynasty999

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 04:29 PM

No way

#13 aaa1

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 12:14 AM

View Postchristian, on 28 September 2013 - 04:16 PM, said:

Would you guys draft Walker before Mike Conley?

No, but take that ish to the AC forum. This place is for real discussion.
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#14 hipriest69

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:09 AM

I'd be very happy with Kemba as my PG1.  There's not much difference between him and Conley, and other than Lawson's FG%, Kemba's got him everywhere else, and he'll get more points and steals than Teague.

#15 hipriest69

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:09 AM

Question is, does anyone think Kemba can improve on last year's stats?  Or is that pretty much his ceiling?

#16 lilkhmerkid4u

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:42 AM

Is Kemba the #2 option on the team or is it Henderson?

How do you think the shot distribution will be like?
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#17 EatPrayLove

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:27 AM

View Postlilkhmerkid4u, on 20 October 2013 - 03:42 AM, said:

Is Kemba the #2 option on the team or is it Henderson?

How do you think the shot distribution will be like?

Jeff, walker, Henderson in that order.

#18 sharpee

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 11:39 PM

any impressions from the first game out tonight? anyone that watched the game want to give some insight?

#19 TheGreatUnwashed

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:02 AM

View Postsharpee, on 30 October 2013 - 11:39 PM, said:

any impressions from the first game out tonight? anyone that watched the game want to give some insight?

Off night tonight. Didn't watch the game but was in a game thread on another site and people were bashing his poor play.
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G - Beverley, Beal, Walker, Blake, Ellis
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C - Ibaka, Gasol, Anderson, Hawes

#20 TheGreatUnwashed

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 11:00 PM

Terrible terrible game. Did anyone watch?
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