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Controlling Fantasy VolatilityCan you Time the Market?


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#1 GPWMC

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 03:52 PM

For those of you who work in Finance (I suspect that some of you do), you must see the glaring similarities between FF and investing. All over this board, people discuss risk/reward characteristics that would make an equity analyst feel right at home.

One extremely important statistical and financial concept is volatility - a measure of the degree and speed of price movements in an asset. If we think of volatility in terms of points per week from a given player, we can analyze players based on their weekly volatility as opposed to their overall yearly ability.

For example, Torrey Smith last year was the type of guy who could bring in 25+ or 0 points any given week. With the number of deep balls thrown his way, if he made just one or two catches, that could be enough to bring you a win.

What I'd like to hear from the Roto community is which players have the highest point volatility per game? In other words, who are the biggest boom/bust players this year?

My choices:

- Wes Welker: competes with two established receivers, Manning doesn't favor the slot receiver
- Roddy White: he won't be seeing the same coverage week over week and the guy is still a great receiver on a throw-first team.
- Calvin Johnson: he'll get you big games because he's a beast, but he left me high and dry a lot last year due to double coverage and I don't think that will change this year, even with some more receiving talent and Bush drawing coverage.

#2 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 03:58 PM

This may help you in your evaluation.....

http://espn.go.com/f...y-football-2012
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#3 Roto4500

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:00 PM

lol...Welker is probably the single most consistent WR over the past 3 years in fantasy football. You think he'll go the complete opposite direction and be volatile this season? Manning does NOT shy away from slot receivers and never has.

Roddy White and Megatron are also two of the more consistent WRs in the league. No clue where you're getting your info from.

DeSean Jackson stands out as someone who will actually be volatile.

#4 ludawg23

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:18 PM

Chris Johnson - seems like the ultimate boom or bust player.  Unless he was my RB3, i'll pass although they did upgrade that line this offseason
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#5 parrothead

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 06:58 PM

I would agree with Chris Johnson.  Although a lot of people by their ADP Im sure are expecting a lot more consistency, Doug Martin was very boom/bust last year.

I look at not only total points and average PPW but also look for number of 10 point weeks, after all most fantasy football is head to head so paying big auction dollars or high draft picks for a guy who puts up one monster week and two duds is not something most want to do.
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#6 Ryan81

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 09:00 PM

Marques Colston was pretty boom/bust last year.
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#7 ToO_BaD

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 09:23 PM

 Roto4500, on 17 July 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:

lol...Welker is probably the single most consistent WR over the past 3 years in fantasy football. You think he'll go the complete opposite direction and be volatile this season? Manning does NOT shy away from slot receivers and never has.

I agree with this.  If anything Manning will love having Welker as a security blanket.  Didn't Gonzo line up in the slot in Indy?  He didn't do TOO bad, and he is nowhere near the talent or specimen of health as Welker.
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#8 Taxman

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 09:27 PM

 ToO_BaD, on 17 July 2013 - 09:23 PM, said:

 Roto4500, on 17 July 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:

lol...Welker is probably the single most consistent WR over the past 3 years in fantasy football. You think he'll go the complete opposite direction and be volatile this season? Manning does NOT shy away from slot receivers and never has.


I agree with this.  If anything Manning will love having Welker as a security blanket.  Didn't Gonzo line up in the slot in Indy?  He didn't do TOO bad, and he is nowhere near the talent or specimen of health as Welker.
.

Not to mention Stokley in Indy and Denver.
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#9 chiefdog10

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 09:39 PM

Because of having two WRs who were fantasy dominant the Atlanta duo and the Denver duo are both very volatile. Depending on who the defenses can take away (and therefore the gameplans of both teams) depends on who gets the targets and therefore the points for the week. Both Julio/Roddy  and DT/Decker traded off games all year. One guy would boom while the other would bust. Very few games for either team where both players blew up.

#10 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 09:40 PM

chris Johnson is still being drafted because of his 2008 season.

#11 larsenjake

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 09:42 PM

handcuff your RBs, get a top 3-4 QB (not Brady this year), stream defense and kickers.

#12 FFCollusion

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 12:52 AM

 ballfan4141, on 17 July 2013 - 09:40 PM, said:

chris Johnson is still being drafted because of his 2008 season.
Ignoring the fact you didn't even get the year correct:

Yeah, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that he finished 12th in 2012, 9th in 2011, 6th in 2010, 1st in 2009 and 11th in 2008 and definitely has nothing to do with the fact he's missed only 1 game across that 5 year span.

Having said that, I agree that CJ?K is very volatile, but I've personally factored that into my ranking/drafting of him.
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#13 kingjames02392

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 02:35 AM

Vincent Jackson when I owned him two years ago was the ULTIMATE boom or bust player. Desean as well.
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#14 SecondString

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 05:47 AM

 GPWMC, on 17 July 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

For those of you who work in Finance (I suspect that some of you do), you must see the glaring similarities between FF and investing. All over this board, people discuss risk/reward characteristics that would make an equity analyst feel right at home.

One extremely important statistical and financial concept is volatility - a measure of the degree and speed of price movements in an asset. If we think of volatility in terms of points per week from a given player, we can analyze players based on their weekly volatility as opposed to their overall yearly ability.

For example, Torrey Smith last year was the type of guy who could bring in 25+ or 0 points any given week. With the number of deep balls thrown his way, if he made just one or two catches, that could be enough to bring you a win.

What I'd like to hear from the Roto community is which players have the highest point volatility per game? In other words, who are the biggest boom/bust players this year?

My choices:

- Wes Welker: competes with two established receivers, Manning doesn't favor the slot receiver
- Roddy White: he won't be seeing the same coverage week over week and the guy is still a great receiver on a throw-first team.
- Calvin Johnson: he'll get you big games because he's a beast, but he left me high and dry a lot last year due to double coverage and I don't think that will change this year, even with some more receiving talent and Bush drawing coverage.
Many of the FF sites publish consistency ratings.

#15 Ryan81

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 08:48 AM

 ballfan4141, on 17 July 2013 - 09:40 PM, said:

chris Johnson is still being drafted because of his 2008 season.
Chris Johnson still finished right outside the top 10 even with his mediocre first 4 or 5 games. Plus his offensive line got a huge boost and his ADP isn't in the 1st round like the past.

 kingjames02392, on 18 July 2013 - 02:35 AM, said:

Vincent Jackson when I owned him two years ago was the ULTIMATE boom or bust player. Desean as well.
I had the 2011 VJax, his last season with San Diego. That was a a legit boom/bust player. I remember one week he went off for like 180/3 TD and the next week be barely managed 20 yards. I finally just removed him from my lineup after AJ Green started turning it up at the end of the season.
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#16 cizastro

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 08:52 AM

With the Raiders going back to a blocking scheme that favors McFadden, I'd consider Darren McFadden a boom or bust type of back.  It's mainly boom when he's healthy, but he's often busted up so you run the risk of losing him for some games each season.

I think he'll bounce back nicely from last years disappointment though.

#17 Proteus

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 09:04 AM

I love how Charles is listed on that link as boom or bust and yet he is somehow exempt from criticism because somehow Andy Reid and Alex Smith will fix everything.

I also love how Spiller is listed as the model of consistency "when given the opportunity."

I stlll think both guys have been limited not so much by coaches' stupidity but by coaches' caution.

The upshot?

I think a "workhorse" load of touches this season and at least one of them will shatter like a glass figurine.

Edited by Proteus, 18 July 2013 - 09:09 AM.

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#18 GPWMC

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 10:46 AM

 Taxman, on 17 July 2013 - 09:27 PM, said:

 ToO_BaD, on 17 July 2013 - 09:23 PM, said:

 Roto4500, on 17 July 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:

lol...Welker is probably the single most consistent WR over the past 3 years in fantasy football. You think he'll go the complete opposite direction and be volatile this season? Manning does NOT shy away from slot receivers and never has.


I agree with this.  If anything Manning will love having Welker as a security blanket.  Didn't Gonzo line up in the slot in Indy?  He didn't do TOO bad, and he is nowhere near the talent or specimen of health as Welker.
.

Not to mention Stokley in Indy and Denver.

Yeah I know Welker is awesome in terms of talent, don't get me wrong, but he'll draw a lot of coverage because of his name. And Denver is it's own animal with Peyton at the helm. There are three really talented receivers and my guess is that defenses are basically going to have to rotate their focus. It's almost a star receiver by committee approach. Welker is great, but in my mind, he'll be no better than Decker, and will likely be worse for fantasy owners.

#19 GPWMC

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 10:49 AM

One more to add to the pile...Josh Gordon. The guy is another threat to put up 3 catches for 120 yards + a TD. Thanks for the link to the consistency rating site, interesting stuff.

#20 Purppride4

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Posted 18 July 2013 - 11:01 AM

 chiefdog10, on 17 July 2013 - 09:39 PM, said:

Because of having two WRs who were fantasy dominant the Atlanta duo and the Denver duo are both very volatile. Depending on who the defenses can take away (and therefore the gameplans of both teams) depends on who gets the targets and therefore the points for the week. Both Julio/Roddy  and DT/Decker traded off games all year. One guy would boom while the other would bust. Very few games for either team where both players blew up.

I would disagree with this in regards to DT/Decker.  Last year DT had only five games of 4 or fewer receptions, and only two of those games did he not make up for it with a TD.  He was one of the most consistent WR's last year; only having three games under 13 pts in a full pt PPR league (two games under 7 pts being against good Defenses in HOU and BAL (week 15 really hurt his owners in the playoffs)).   Decker was a little more volatile in that he had 6 games under 13 pts, but only three of them were under 10.  The rest of his games he did not score under 15 however.  Agree that they traded off huge games, but that does not make them volatile in the sense that they did not produce as good plays the majority of weeks on a consistent basis (i.e 0 or 25 pt games).  

The question for these two is how does Welker impact everyone in Den.  Stokley had a 45/544/5 stat line last year and its safe to say Welker will improve on those numbers, but at which players expense?  I am going to guess it shaves a little off both DT and Decker, but I have a feeling more so the TE's.