Streaming QB'scan it be done successfully?
Posted 26 July 2013 - 08:54 AM
I was looking at some QB rankings last night & it really jumped off the page on how deep the QB position really is. Not looking to debate ratings but wondering if anyone has thought about streaming QB's this season?
The idea would be to stock pile position players then towards the middle end of the draft grab a couple of QB's like Flacco, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Cutler, etc & just play the one who has the best matchup. Rivers vs DEN in a shootout, Cutler vs DET, etc
Does anyone think it could work? Or would someone even have the guts to try it?
1. Drew Brees 2. Aaron Rodgers 3. Cam Newton 4. Peyton Manning 5. Colin Kaepernick 6. Russell Wilson 6. Matt Ryan 8. Tom Brady 8. Robert Griffin III 10. Matthew Stafford 11. Andrew Luck 12. Tony Romo 13. Eli Manning 14. Ben Roethlisberger 15. Michael Vick 15. Joe Flacco 17. Andy Dalton 18. Philip Rivers 19. Carson Palmer 20. Matt Schaub 20. Sam Bradford
C (1) - Castro
1B (1) - Encarnacion
2B (1) - Utley
SS (1) - Hardy
3B (1) - Beltre
OF (3) - Gomez, Pence, Beltran
U (2) - Hosmer, Aoki, D. Gordon
P (7 total - combined)
SP - Scherzer, Lester, Liriano, Ryu, Fister, Estrada, Kuroda, Colon, Richards, J. Chavez
RP - Kimbrel, Grilli, Balfour, Melancon, Carpenter
Scoring (batting = 1 pt single, 2 pts double, 3 pts triple, 4 pts homer, 1 pt BB, 1 pt run, 1 pt HBP, 1 pt RBI, 2 pts SB)
Scoring (pitching = 10 pts win, 10 pts save, 1 pt K, 2 pts IP, 5 pts CG, -.5 BB, -.5 hits allowed, -1 ER, -5 BS, -.5 HB)
Posted 26 July 2013 - 09:02 AM
RB: Lawrence Phillips
RB: Ki-Jana Carter
WR: Charles Rogers
WR: Desmond Howard
TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
K: Ray Finkle(Einhorn)
BN: Andre Ware/Jared Cook/Tony Mandarich/Curtis Enis/Travis Henry/Brian Bosworth/CJ Spiller/Trent Richardson
Posted 26 July 2013 - 09:09 AM
I think it could certainly work, but usually a QB or 2 falls pretty late from what I've seen this year. I will probably just hope a QB falls late and take them (since there are 12 QBs I like as a QB1) but if they don't I'll do an Eli/Cutler combo or something
Posted 26 July 2013 - 11:22 AM
Record: 8-5 (Finished 2nd in Division, 3rd Overall; 1st in Points)
QB: Drew Brees
WR (2): Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown
RB(2): LeSean McCoy, Jordan Todman
FLEX (WR/RB): Keenan Allen
TE: Jason Witten
K: Nick Novak
DEF: Kansas City Chiefs
Posted 26 July 2013 - 11:53 AM
You just have to look at match ups really like I was with Dalton on his hot streak and then I'd switch to Romo if I liked his match up better. I wouldn't suggest it but it can work.
get sunday ticket, think for yourself.
Posted 26 July 2013 - 01:22 PM
Ironically the argument against streaming QBs this year, is that QB is so deep you shouldn't have to. You can pull off the same 'load up skill players' strategy and then still grab Luck, Romo, Stafford, all of which are guys you wouldn't really have to second guess weekly.
Coming into the season I was contemplating streaming QBs for an auction league, so that I could spend all my money on RB/WR. With $1 QBs like Vick and Bradford, with FA's out there like Flacco, Eli, Big Ben, Palmer etc, you can see why in plus matchups there's value in this.
I think it comes down to your confidence in two things. 1: The ability of FA's to break the 20 point barrier. and 2: your ability to correctly choose when it's most likely to happen. To test this theory, I would try the following. Choose 3 QB's that are likely FA's this year, or round 12+ if you prefer. Then last year, use matchup ratings to pick which teams you would have picked that guy to play. So, say we use Flacco as an example, and let's focus on 'top 8 fantasy points given to the QB position' (this is the top 1/4 of the league 8/32) and then check to see if you would have broken the barrier that week.
According to my spreadsheet, in Yahoo scoring, those 8 teams were, in order:
I'm going to use Flacco as my example, because he seems like a middle of the road guy, available for this strategy.
14 - Wsh - 17.2
10 - Oak - 30.7
5 - KC - 7.9
Flacco was a bad choice, because he doesn't play these teams I guess, but you can see that only 1 of the 3 'top 8' matchups would have benefited the stream theory. The KC game would have likely killed you and the Wsh game would have been a slight under performance.
Uhh, lets look at Dalton.
3 - Wsh - 25.7
12 - Oak - 20.9
11 - KC - 20.5
Again, I'm not picking Qbs very well, but regardless all 3 of Daltons favorable matchups break the 20 point mark.
1 - Oak - 13.0
4 - KC - 15.4
5 - NO - 19.2
9 - KC - 15.6
10 - TB - 24
17 - Oak - 13.7
So, for a very crude example, let's say you picked these guys and played every top 8 matchup from above, which is only really 11 games, but work with me. 223 points over 11 games, is an average of 20.3 fantasy points a game. Drew Brees was the #1 QB in Yahoo last year with an average of 22.8.
2 points a game, would lead me to believe this strategy is very viable. The issue is the head games of picking the right guy, but I think you can avoid that by pre-determining a a system, and just sticking to it, as well as keeping the mind set, that it doesn't matter if Dalton out scores Flacco by 3 points, the strategy is that both QBs finished within 5 points of Drew Brees that week and cost you nothing. But people tend to focus only on the X vs Y, rather than X or Y vs Brees. The latter is the only thing that matters when discussing this idea though.
Posted 26 July 2013 - 01:29 PM
I think part of the issue is a QB can turn in a sub par performance for a lot of reasons and even above average QBs can pull a crap day. Also above average QB's can manage to go off against decent defenses on ocassion.
The flip side of this, is when streaming defenses it's much more predictable. If you bet against the Blane Gabbart, Mark Sanchez, and the Arizona QB of the week last year you did pretty well. Granted you can't always get the D going against those guys, but it seems a lot easier to bet against the ineptitude of an offense for some reason.
Posted 26 July 2013 - 01:38 PM
Now waiting on QB in the draft and then taking Eli/Dalton both and starting the best matchup could work but I think truly streaming from week to week would be a massive headache.
Posted 26 July 2013 - 01:55 PM
Posted 26 July 2013 - 04:29 PM
I don't think it's such a bad idea to load up at RB & WR (also taking your starting TE) and wait until after rd 10 to start taking your QB's. The odds strongly favor that players among Flacco, Bradford, Dalton, Palmer, Vick, ASmith, Tannehill, Locker, etc. are going to surprise and move into the top 10. I would consider sacrificing a bench spot for a 3rd QB if my RB & WR stable are rock solid & deep. Rolling with a QB crew of Flacco, Bradford, and Vick could work for me.
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