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Kyrie Irving 2013-2014 Season OutlookGet Buckets


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#1 HRHoops

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 06:02 PM

Several of the league's top point guards took significant steps in year 3.  For example, D.Rose went from 20.8 points and 6 assists to 25 and 7.7; while CP3 advanced from 18.8 points and 8.9 assists to 21.1 points and 11.6 assists.  While each situation is different, I would expect improvement in Kyrie as well; (perhaps something like a jump from 22.5 and 5.9 to 24 and 7.5).  Of course, the greatest improvement he can make for owners is in games played, and as a keeper owner of Kyrie, I have fingers crossed for 75 games this year.

#2 vnmslsrbms

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 09:15 PM

That totally sounds reasonable.  I think he's not being talked about much because he sits squarely in the 3rd tier within the top 12 picks.  He's not Durant or LBJ level obviously, and sits below CP3 Harden and Love, so there he is in the late first round.  I think what holds him back are his injuries and his lack of elite steals and elite assists.  He could get there, but he's already so good!  I think his biggest area for improvement definitely is his assists.  If he can get 9 assists then I think he is squarely in the 2nd tier.

#3 Ryanj37

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Posted 27 July 2013 - 11:43 PM

I'd be wary about predicting much of a bump in assists. With the cavs addition of a solid secondary ball handler in Jarret Jack, you expect to see Kyrie play off the ball more.
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#4 nickalero99

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 08:44 AM

 Ryanj37, on 27 July 2013 - 11:43 PM, said:

I'd be wary about predicting much of a bump in assists. With the cavs addition of a solid secondary ball handler in Jarret Jack, you expect to see Kyrie play off the ball more.

I don't.  I doubt they're on the court together double digit minutes a game.The only thing I'm wary about is a random injury or two.

Edited by nickalero99, 28 July 2013 - 08:44 AM.


#5 vnmslsrbms

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:08 AM

I think they very much will be on the court together for at least 10 minutes a game.  Jarrett Jack is a way superior player to Dion Waiters.  Say Irving plays 35 minutes a game, which he did last year.  Jarrett Jack plays 30 minutes a game, which he did last year (I'm assuming he takes a similar role with the money they are paying him).  Probably 10 of the minutes for Jack will be at PG, 3 minutes for some PG scrub.  20 minutes at SG with the other 24 split by Waiters and company.  I think that makes sense.  So 20 of Kyrie's PG minutes will be spent playing with Jack.  That will have an impact on his assists.  It could also happen that they will play Irving less minutes to control his injury risk, so Jack could even play more minutes.  All depends on how you see it.  I'm not knocking Irving, as he's a great young talent.  I just think it's more possible for his scoring to go up rather than his assists.  Although I think Jack is a better scorer than Waiters so that may lead to 1 or 2 more assists a game to balance things out.

#6 tazdingo

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:46 AM

The 3rd year is usually the magical year for a player to jump into posting elite numbers and Kyrie is a huge candidate to turn up CP3-like stats. That said, I'm a firm believer in the "Curse of the NBA Live cover" and am not going to draft him. Sounds silly but I'd rather be safe that way.
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#7 jvalleD

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 05:58 PM

Do you guys think getting him with the 5th pick is a reach? I know he will have a monster year, bumps in assists and better fg% sounds possible. Plus, I think after the first obvious four you can't really lose with players from the 1st round.
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PF: Kevin Love
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#8 christian

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:08 PM

5th pick would be a reach for me because he's a huge injury risk.

Edited by christian, 18 September 2013 - 06:08 PM.

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F Al Horford (IR), Paul Millsap, Nicolas Batum, DeMar DeRozan, Ryan Anderson, Harkless, Marcus Morris, Adrien, Beasley
C Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol (IR), Miles Plumlee, Byron Mullens
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#9 jvalleD

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:10 PM

As well as curry, so I wouldnt mind picking Kyrie one pick higher than him
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G: Jeff Teague
SF: Jeff Green
PF: Kevin Love
F: Anthony Davis
C: Andre Drummond
C: Jonas Valanciunas
Util: Thaddeus Young
Util: Terrence Jones
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BN: Isaiah Thomas
BN: Larry Sanders

#10 thezing1

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:46 PM

If you think Curry and Irving are the same injury risk then I would definitely take Curry because he is better than Irving.

#11 Sanjo16

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:18 PM

If KD,lebron,harden and cp3 are all gone, I would rather choose westbrook as my 5th pick

#12 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 10:46 PM

 jvalleD, on 18 September 2013 - 05:58 PM, said:

Do you guys think getting him with the 5th pick is a reach? I know he will have a monster year, bumps in assists and better fg% sounds possible. Plus, I think after the first obvious four you can't really lose with players from the 1st round.

If you are really high on Kyrie and think he will have a monster year (which could definitely happen), then take him at 5 because the odds are very slim that he makes it back to you in rd 2.  My only other suggestion would be to trade draft picks if that's allowed in your league because Kyrie should go closer to pick 10-12.

#13 ballsohard

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 10:47 PM

There is no way Kyrie will finish top 5 value, and while I personally don't mind reaching for players you really like, doing so with your first pick seems foolish.

#14 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 09:06 AM

 ballsohard, on 18 September 2013 - 10:47 PM, said:

There is no way Kyrie will finish top 5 value, and while I personally don't mind reaching for players you really like, doing so with your first pick seems foolish.

These were most people's sentiments regarding SCurry at this time last year and look how that turned out.  I would not advocate taking Kyrie over any of the consensus top 3 (KD, LBJ, CP3) but would not be shocked if he stays healthy and matches or outperforms Curry or Harden.  He certainly has the ability and fantasy friendly game to become a top 5 fantasy player sooner than later.

Edited by J.T. Marlin, 19 September 2013 - 09:07 AM.


#15 Dynasty999

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 11:16 AM

They were crazy then, Curry had proven he could put up top 5 stats if healthy...Kyrie not at all

Edited by Dynasty999, 19 September 2013 - 11:16 AM.


#16 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 11:44 AM

 Dynasty999, on 19 September 2013 - 11:16 AM, said:

They were crazy then, Curry had proven he could put up top 5 stats if healthy...Kyrie not at all

Curry was never a top 5 player before last season - on the fringes and close but never top 5.  Kyrie made a substantial jump from year 1 to 2.  Kid's still only 20, why can't he make another leap in year 3?  CP3 made his huge leap from year 2 to 3 - not saying Kyrie is as good as Paul (especially in AST) but he's pretty damn good.  You guys are somewhat marginalizing a young player who has been sensational when he's been on the floor & healthy.

#17 ballsohard

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 12:32 PM

 J.T. Marlin, on 19 September 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

These were most people's sentiments regarding SCurry at this time last year and look how that turned out.  I would not advocate taking Kyrie over any of the consensus top 3 (KD, LBJ, CP3) but would not be shocked if he stays healthy and matches or outperforms Curry or Harden.  He certainly has the ability and fantasy friendly game to become a top 5 fantasy player sooner than later.

Not true at all. Curry showed flashes of being elite - he has never finished worse than #14 (and that was his injury-riddled season), and actually had stretches where he as top 10 and (correct me if I'm wrong) top 5. Because of that, I don't think his #4 finish shocked anybody. You can't say the same for Irving; a top 5 finish by him this season would surprise at least a few people.That being said, you're on point that Irving still has plenty to improve, and many PGs often make a big leap in their third year. However, we're talking about top 5 value, and I'm not sure he's in an opportunity to ascend to those levels with a much improved supporting cast as well as the continual growth of other young players such as Waiters and Thompson. Top 10? Sure. Top 5? Don't think so.

#18 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 02:50 PM

 ballsohard, on 19 September 2013 - 12:32 PM, said:

 J.T. Marlin, on 19 September 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

These were most people's sentiments regarding SCurry at this time last year and look how that turned out.  I would not advocate taking Kyrie over any of the consensus top 3 (KD, LBJ, CP3) but would not be shocked if he stays healthy and matches or outperforms Curry or Harden.  He certainly has the ability and fantasy friendly game to become a top 5 fantasy player sooner than later.

Not true at all. Curry showed flashes of being elite - he has never finished worse than #14 (and that was his injury-riddled season), and actually had stretches where he as top 10 and (correct me if I'm wrong) top 5. Because of that, I don't think his #4 finish shocked anybody. You can't say the same for Irving; a top 5 finish by him this season would surprise at least a few people.That being said, you're on point that Irving still has plenty to improve, and many PGs often make a big leap in their third year. However, we're talking about top 5 value, and I'm not sure he's in an opportunity to ascend to those levels with a much improved supporting cast as well as the continual growth of other young players such as Waiters and Thompson. Top 10? Sure. Top 5? Don't think so.

You're misunderstanding me about Curry.  Most knew that he had elite fantasy potential based on his past seasons, just too many last year at this time dismissed his value because they were convinced that he was for sure injury prone due to his ankle issues (which I vehemently disagreed with last summer).

Also, I'm not saying that I would take Kyrie at #5 - probably wouldn't consider him until around 10-12.  My point was that he certainly has the ability to provide top 5 value.  If you take a player at #5 overall and he ends up providing an overall 9 cat ranking of 10 at the end of the season, then that's still a win in my book.  Looking at things this way, I don't have an issue with the OP bypassing 1 of Curry or Harden at #5 overall if they feel strongly about Kyrie having a true break-out/elite season.

#19 krupocin

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 04:38 PM

 tazdingo, on 28 July 2013 - 09:46 AM, said:

The 3rd year is usually the magical year for a player to jump into posting elite numbers and Kyrie is a huge candidate to turn up CP3-like stats. That said, I'm a firm believer in the "Curse of the NBA Live cover" and am not going to draft him. Sounds silly but I'd rather be safe that way.


I really hope that was a joke, and if it's not, could you please explain how on Earth a player being on the cover of a video game has any affect on his real-life career?  Do you also believe in spirits and are scared of black cats lol?

 jvalleD, on 18 September 2013 - 05:58 PM, said:

Do you guys think getting him with the 5th pick is a reach? I know he will have a monster year, bumps in assists and better fg% sounds possible. Plus, I think after the first obvious four you can't really lose with players from the 1st round.


That's absolutely a reach and I'll tell you why.  To look at this from a very top level POV, the top 5 players in fantasy basketball (Durant, James, Curry, Harden, CP3, and also Love would be in that conversation if healthy, he was 4th overall in 10-11 and 11-12) have z-scores of +0.66 to +1.03 (not counting Durant's +1.24 since it's so absurd and even an outlier for his past #'s) which is typical for the top 5 or 6.  So far, Irving on a per-game basis had z-scores of +0.14 and +0.35.  He would essentially have to have about twice as good of a season than he's ever had in his career to propel himself into the top 5-6, since those players are truly elite and on a whole other level.  

To put that in perspective, 4th ranked Curry who seems to be compared to Irving in this thread and had a z-score of +0.69, was +0.13 above 6th rank (Tim Duncan).  Irving, was +0.13 above 29th place (Brook Lopez), which to me shows how almost arbitrary and close that 2nd tier of top players is.  Actually Kyrie was tied with Aldridge, Varejao, and Ibaka.  He really isn't even close to that top 5-6 elite level of players.    

Not just that, but this is per-game; since Kyrie is very injury prone and has missed a large % of his games going back to the beginning of his Duke career.  If you look at his season cumulative rankings they're 63rd and 55th respectively.  Next year could be the year he plays 82 games, but I would seriously say the odds are very low.

 thezing1, on 18 September 2013 - 06:46 PM, said:

If you think Curry and Irving are the same injury risk then I would definitely take Curry because he is better than Irving.


As injury prone as Curry is, Irving has actually missed a larger % of games at this point of his career bc of injuries, especially counting college.  Also, the thing about Curry as well, is besides that one season he really didn't miss many games.  His other 3 seasons in the league he played 80, 74, 78.  The season he had the ankle issues and played 26 was the shortened lockout season.  

All that being said though, let's say their injury risk is equal, although I think Curry besides his ankle is pretty durable, Curry has a crazy good track record as far as fantasy value is concerned (12, 8, 14, 4 in 9-cat; 8, 6, 11, 4 8-cat).  Even during his injury season, where he played 26 games at 28mpg, he still put up 14th overall (11th 8-cat) per game and 6th overall per-36.  Any guy that can put up 12th overall value (8th 8-cat) as a Rookie is a special player.  To put that in perspecive Irving was 38th & 12th.  Both very solid, but not elite.  

 Sanjo16, on 18 September 2013 - 07:18 PM, said:

If KD,lebron,harden and cp3 are all gone, I would rather choose westbrook as my 5th pick


No way Westbrook will put up 5th overall value if you're playing 9-cat especially.  The best he's ever done is 16th overall last year (192, 111, 26, 18 the previous 4) when fully healthy.  However, Rotoworld just posted today a link from the Oklahoma City paper that said Westbrook probably will not be 100% from his knee surgery to start the season.  You know OKC expects the playoffs, so they will be easy with him, even if he is putting up his normal stats so they will not play him his full minute allotment especially early season.  I would say he's a better pick in the early 2nd at best this year, maybe at the tail end of round 1 if you're punting TO's or playing 8-cat, bc for a guy who always goes early/mid 1st, he's never really proven he belongs there.  I would definitely take Kevin Love, Paul George, and maybe even Al Horford with the situation in Atlanta this year.  Horford finished 12th last year, playing next to Smith instead of Millsap who is a much better complement, shooting 11% below his career FT%.  If he returns to his baseline and experiences a 5-10% increase in last years #'s, he could be a top 6 player.  

 ballsohard, on 18 September 2013 - 10:47 PM, said:


There is no way Kyrie will finish top 5 value, and while I personally don't mind reaching for players you really like, doing so with your first pick seems foolish.


I could not agree more with ballsohard.  I'm a big fan of reaching for players in rounds 2-3+ if you think they're poised for a big increase, but with proven entities in spots 1-6 I just think it would be crazy to not take one of them.  

 J.T. Marlin, on 19 September 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

These were most people's sentiments regarding SCurry at this time last year and look how that turned out.  I would not advocate taking Kyrie over any of the consensus top 3 (KD, LBJ, CP3) but would not be shocked if he stays healthy and matches or outperforms Curry or Harden.  He certainly has the ability and fantasy friendly game to become a top 5 fantasy player sooner than later.


Curry had a track record though of top 5 production per-36 over the last 2 years while Irving is clearly a 2nd tier player, sharing a z-score with Ibaka, Aldridge, and Varejao in 12-13.  Curry last season he was just healthy enough to play the minutes (38mpg, previous 2 seasons were 28mpg and 32mpg) to take advantage of it.  Irving would have to stay healthy and basically put up #'s twice as good as he did last year, on a more stacked Cavs team.  Seems super unlikely.

 J.T. Marlin, on 19 September 2013 - 11:44 AM, said:

 Dynasty999, on 19 September 2013 - 11:16 AM, said:

They were crazy then, Curry had proven he could put up top 5 stats if healthy...Kyrie not at all
Curry was never a top 5 player before last season - on the fringes and close but never top 5.  Kyrie made a substantial jump from year 1 to 2.  Kid's still only 20, why can't he make another leap in year 3?  CP3 made his huge leap from year 2 to 3 - not saying Kyrie is as good as Paul (especially in AST) but he's pretty damn good.  You guys are somewhat marginalizing a young player who has been sensational when he's been on the floor & healthy.


Dynasty, you're right, Kyrie is great, and he blow up his 3rd season, but I wouldn't expect it.  This is already my longest post ever on this site so I don't want to get into it too much, but Kyrie's game is different than those guys.  Curry & CP3's games are so special bc they each do a few things at an ultra-elite level, while Irving does not.  To put that in perspective, Irving put up 23ppg and ranked 12th, while Curry got his 12th ranking his Rookie year with 17ppg and CP3 was able to put up 2nd overall with 16ppg a few times.  I know that's just one cat, but Irving is a scoring PG.  He's not going to his 3.5 threes per game like Curry or get 3spg or 12apg like Paul.  He's also less efficient; Curry who shoots a ton of 3's is around 48% FG and 90% FT, CP3 shoots around 50% FG and turns the ball over only 2 times per game.  I could keep rambling, but basically, Irving doesn't do anything at an elite level, not in college or the NBA.  His value comes from his scoring and his all-around solid game.  He doesn't have those 2-3 elite cats to put him over the top, and while he could randomly start to make 3 threes per or 2.5spg, I woldn't count on it.  

Long story short, I like Kyrie Irving, but he's definitely not a good bet for top 5 at any point in his career.  What he is, is a solid bet to produce top 10-15 #'s and an awesome pick in the late 1st, but since the top 5-6 guys in fantasy are so much better than the rest (and have 2-3 things that they do an ultra-elite level, which Irving doesn't), that small climb in the rankings is HUGE.  Also, his injury risk is a bit scary.
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#20 krupocin

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 08:51 PM

It's really weird, about 2 hours after writing my longest RW Forum post ever, I came across this video by BballBreakdown on Yahoo comparing Isaiah Thomas to Kyrie Irving.  Check it out, the point of the video is basically that Irving is a bit overrated (using alot of the same stuff I pointed out as well as advanced sats) and Thomas insanely underrated.  They definitely use the advanced stats a little heavily to prove their point, but this is an unbiased group that does basketball analysis, not like a Kings fan page or anything.  It's interesting though, Thomas was more efficient in almost every way on the floor except for I think isolation.  Yahoo liked it enough to put it in their weekly round-up as well.


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