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Arron Afflalo 2013-2014 Season Outlook


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#1 cam.mac

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 06:57 PM

Solid season in '12-'13, what's on the cards for this season? I'm guessing Olapido will eat into his minutes, but can either of them play SF?

#2 The Shark

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 07:12 PM

Harkless and Tobias will take all the SF minutes IMO. Since Oladipo will probably get some minutes at PG and he will probably come off the bench(at least to start the season), I believe that Afflalo will get 30-33MPG. I really think he will get traded though,most likely to a playoff team and he might be a lot less valuable fantasy wise there so id try to avoid taking Afflalo at any pick close to his ADP.

#3 christian

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 08:50 PM

“I know a lot of rumors are circling with Arron, we love Arron. We view Arron as almost a core player with us. It would have to be something crazy for us to part ways with Arron.”
-Orlando Magic Director of Pro Scouting Harold Ellis

So even with Oladipo nin the picture, it seems Afflalo will still get lots of time as a top option on the Magic team. I don't think he'll hit the 36 mpg he played last year with Oladipo around, but around 27-30 minutes sounds reasonable. If he remains as the starter in Orlando, he will no doubt be a very sneaky and safe pick at the end of drafts (he fell to rounds 12-13 in the mock drafts done on this forum). Great value pick if all goes well for him this year. But those are huge "ifs," as Orlando isn't much of a contender this season and may choose to develop their youngsters (Oladipo) as the season wears on.

Edited by christian, 19 August 2013 - 08:51 PM.

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12-team H2H dynasty (12), 8-cat., 3 IR, ESPN (LM) *2014 CHAMPION: three-peat (130-22, 1/12); 7-1 SF, 8-0 FINALS
G Chris Paul, Lowry, Dragic, Deron Williams, Bryant (IR), Reggie Jackson, Augustin, Foye, Chalmers, Thornton, Tony Allen

F Al Horford (IR), Paul Millsap, Nicolas Batum, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Maurice Harkless, Jeff Adrien
C Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol (IR), Markieff Morris, Miles Plumlee
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G Ty Lawson, Lance Stephenson, Kevin Martin, Jodie Meeks

F LeBron James, Paul Millsap, Danny Green
C Serge Ibaka, Robin Lopez, Andrew Bynum (IR), Gorgui Dieng
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F Paul Millsap, Danilo Gallinari, Josh McRoberts, Vince Carter, Patrick Patterson, Mirza Teletovic (IR)
C Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Kyle O'Quinn, Elton Brand, Steven Adams, Andray Blatche

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G James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Randy Foye, Jodie Meeks
F Nicolas Batum, Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, J.R. Smith, Nick Young
C Al Jefferson, Marc Gasol, Derrick Favors

#4 gsw

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 11:58 PM

Yea, I really don't see how people are taking Oladipo before Afflalo. The guy is solid, and I believe will return much greater value for his ADP than Oladipo.

#5 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 20 August 2013 - 09:17 AM

View Postgsw, on 19 August 2013 - 11:58 PM, said:

Yea, I really don't see how people are taking Oladipo before Afflalo. The guy is solid, and I believe will return much greater value for his ADP than Oladipo.

People are much higher on Oladipo because his game appears to translate much better for fantasy purposes than Afflalo's.  Check out Afflalo's uninspiring stat lines and rankings over the last 3 seasons:

http://rotomonster.c...e=Arron_Afflalo

To me, his most likely contribution will be around his 11-12 season stats.  Oladipo on the other hand looks like he will be able to at least match Afflalo in PTS, REB, AST, while providing around 1 3PM per game.  Lastly and most important, it looks like Oladipo is going to be a major factor in STL, potentially leading the league if he sees 30+MPG.

In fantasy basketball, I like to play it safe with my earlier picks and swing for the fences or take boring but very fantasy productive veterans later on, which leads me to pass on no-upside picks like Afflalo late in the draft.

#6 gsw

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Posted 20 August 2013 - 11:34 PM

I know Afflalo is stunted due to his lack of steals.  However, he provides decent counting stats and with less offensive responsibility, I believe he can regain his efficiency in FG% and TOs of years past.  Thus, providing sneaky value for his ADP.

If Oladipo really does play PG, he may also lead the whole league in TOs.  I'm also not so sure of his jumper as he did shoot pretty horribly in summer league.  In standard 9-cat leagues Oladipo is way too overpriced for my liking.  Rarely do rookie guards fare well in fantasy.  When they do, they are much more polished than Oladipo (see Curry and Lillard).

Edited by gsw, 20 August 2013 - 11:35 PM.


#7 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 09:19 AM

View Postgsw, on 20 August 2013 - 11:34 PM, said:

I know Afflalo is stunted due to his lack of steals.  However, he provides decent counting stats and with less offensive responsibility, I believe he can regain his efficiency in FG% and TOs of years past.  Thus, providing sneaky value for his ADP.

If Oladipo really does play PG, he may also lead the whole league in TOs.  I'm also not so sure of his jumper as he did shoot pretty horribly in summer league.  In standard 9-cat leagues Oladipo is way too overpriced for my liking.  Rarely do rookie guards fare well in fantasy.  When they do, they are much more polished than Oladipo (see Curry and Lillard).

I agree that Oladipo's FG% and TO will most likely be a big problem.  I have no clue what his ADP will be but, with Afflalo not being traded, there will probably be a minutes crunch and his ADP will most likely be too high for my liking.  He's not someone that I see myself targeting in drafts.

I hear what you're saying about Afflalo in one of the last rounds but I rather take a shot on someone like MKD, who should see a lot of minutes in CHA and could make a nice 2nd year leap.

#8 vnmslsrbms

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 09:13 PM

I don't think either of those guys are going to be around in the last rounds.  MKG is a big sleeper this year.  His shooting will take a while to improve considering it's probably an overhaul, but he should be a solid mid-late sleeper.

#9 cam.mac

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 10:37 PM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 20 August 2013 - 09:17 AM, said:

To me, his most likely contribution will be around his 11-12 season stats.  Oladipo on the other hand looks like he will be able to at least match Afflalo in PTS, REB, AST, while providing around 1 3PM per game.  Lastly and most important, it looks like Oladipo is going to be a major factor in STL, potentially leading the league if he sees 30+MPG.

In fantasy basketball, I like to play it safe with my earlier picks and swing for the fences or take boring but very fantasy productive veterans later on, which leads me to pass on no-upside picks like Afflalo late in the draft.

I suppose you're right about '11-'12 stats, seeing as he'll struggle to match 36mpg this season. Totally agree with you about his lack of upside too but I think he should represent his ADP or close to it and I'll take 15PPG with little upside late in the draft if I need to pad my scoring.. Depending on my team needs and how many SG's I have I think I'd be happy to pick him up late in the draft to bolster my PPG, FT & 3PM although his 3's inexplicably took a dip last season. I haven't heard any rumors about him this off-season, really just curious as to how much of a threat Oladipo will be minutes-wise and/or if Orlando are going all in with player development seeing as they have a pretty young squad now.

#10 ballsohard

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 10:46 PM

View Postcam.mac, on 22 August 2013 - 10:37 PM, said:

I suppose you're right about '11-'12 stats, seeing as he'll struggle to match 36mpg this season. Totally agree with you about his lack of upside too but I think he should represent his ADP or close to it and I'll take 15PPG with little upside late in the draft if I need to pad my scoring.. Depending on my team needs and how many SG's I have I think I'd be happy to pick him up late in the draft to bolster my PPG, FT & 3PM although his 3's inexplicably took a dip last season. I haven't heard any rumors about him this off-season, really just curious as to how much of a threat Oladipo will be minutes-wise and/or if Orlando are going all in with player development seeing as they have a pretty young squad now.

There's nothing inexplicable about it at all. Afflalo is not a great shot creator, and the talentless Orlando team he was on last year meant that defenses could afford to cover Afflalo a lot more closely on the perimeter. Expect the same again this season as long as Afflalo sticks around in Orlando.

#11 christian

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 10:56 PM

View Postballsohard, on 22 August 2013 - 10:46 PM, said:

View Postcam.mac, on 22 August 2013 - 10:37 PM, said:

I suppose you're right about '11-'12 stats, seeing as he'll struggle to match 36mpg this season. Totally agree with you about his lack of upside too but I think he should represent his ADP or close to it and I'll take 15PPG with little upside late in the draft if I need to pad my scoring.. Depending on my team needs and how many SG's I have I think I'd be happy to pick him up late in the draft to bolster my PPG, FT & 3PM although his 3's inexplicably took a dip last season. I haven't heard any rumors about him this off-season, really just curious as to how much of a threat Oladipo will be minutes-wise and/or if Orlando are going all in with player development seeing as they have a pretty young squad now.

There's nothing inexplicable about it at all. Afflalo is not a great shot creator, and the talentless Orlando team he was on last year meant that defenses could afford to cover Afflalo a lot more closely on the perimeter. Expect the same again this season as long as Afflalo sticks around in Orlando.
Maybe, but Afflalo isn't as alone in Orlando anymore as he was last season. With everyone healthy and the younger players much improved, there should be lots of young talent surrounding him (Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Glen Davis returning, Maurice Harkless, Victor Oladipo). I could be wrong, but I think defenses won't be as uptight on him with several of those players capable of scoring. I mean, we all thought it was going to be only him and Big Baby immediately post-Dwight trade until Harris, Vucevic, and Harkless came on late.

Edited by christian, 22 August 2013 - 10:56 PM.

MFFL
12-team H2H dynasty (12), 8-cat., 3 IR, ESPN (LM) *2014 CHAMPION: three-peat (130-22, 1/12); 7-1 SF, 8-0 FINALS
G Chris Paul, Lowry, Dragic, Deron Williams, Bryant (IR), Reggie Jackson, Augustin, Foye, Chalmers, Thornton, Tony Allen

F Al Horford (IR), Paul Millsap, Nicolas Batum, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Maurice Harkless, Jeff Adrien
C Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol (IR), Markieff Morris, Miles Plumlee
20-team H2H keeper (4), 8-cat., 1 IR, ESPN *2014 CHAMPION, 2013 runner-up (95-32-1, 2/20); 8-0 QF, 6-2 SF, 5-3 FINALS
G Ty Lawson, Lance Stephenson, Kevin Martin, Jodie Meeks

F LeBron James, Paul Millsap, Danny Green
C Serge Ibaka, Robin Lopez, Andrew Bynum (IR), Gorgui Dieng
20-team H2H keeper (5), 8-cat., 2 IR, ESPN *took over team in early November 2013 (88-60-4, 8/20); 1-6-1 QF
G Mike Conley, Wilson Chandler, Mo Williams, Kent Bazemore (IR), Gary Neal
F Paul Millsap, Danilo Gallinari, Josh McRoberts, Vince Carter, Patrick Patterson, Mirza Teletovic (IR)
C Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Kyle O'Quinn, Elton Brand, Steven Adams, Andray Blatche

10-team H2H, 8 cat., ESPN *2014 CHAMPION (106-42-4, 1/10); 8-0 QF, 6-2 FINALS
G James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Randy Foye, Jodie Meeks
F Nicolas Batum, Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, J.R. Smith, Nick Young
C Al Jefferson, Marc Gasol, Derrick Favors

#12 cam.mac

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 10:58 PM

View Postballsohard, on 22 August 2013 - 10:46 PM, said:

View Postcam.mac, on 22 August 2013 - 10:37 PM, said:

I suppose you're right about '11-'12 stats, seeing as he'll struggle to match 36mpg this season. Totally agree with you about his lack of upside too but I think he should represent his ADP or close to it and I'll take 15PPG with little upside late in the draft if I need to pad my scoring.. Depending on my team needs and how many SG's I have I think I'd be happy to pick him up late in the draft to bolster my PPG, FT & 3PM although his 3's inexplicably took a dip last season. I haven't heard any rumors about him this off-season, really just curious as to how much of a threat Oladipo will be minutes-wise and/or if Orlando are going all in with player development seeing as they have a pretty young squad now.

There's nothing inexplicable about it at all. Afflalo is not a great shot creator, and the talentless Orlando team he was on last year meant that defenses could afford to cover Afflalo a lot more closely on the perimeter. Expect the same again this season as long as Afflalo sticks around in Orlando.

Good point. I'll admit he's not somebody I've followed a lot, so I'm not familiar with his tendencies, I received him on the back end of a trade late last season and he was a decent bench guy.. No doubt he had more open looks in Denver which is why he made more 3's while taking less.

#13 vnmslsrbms

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 09:05 PM

Afflalo is a good 4th or 5th guy on a championship team.  Too bad he has to play leader on this young team.  Not sure how that's going to work out.  Maybe they can go for a Pistons approach.  Great team defense, distributed offense.

#14 Pirate

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 09:34 PM

I wouldn't reach on him. He's solid but his big upside was 3's with fg% and low to's
The last two have dipped a bit.

Edited by Pirate, 25 August 2013 - 09:35 PM.


#15 tofuball

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 01:12 PM

Will he be getting enough minutes to be worth keeping around this season?

Edited by Patrick Bateman, 30 October 2013 - 01:19 PM.
AC Content Removed


#16 Master

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 01:22 PM

View Posttofuball, on 30 October 2013 - 01:12 PM, said:

Will he be getting enough minutes to be worth keeping around this season?

Why do you expect his minutes to go down? I assume they don't have many scorers

#17 tofuball

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 01:27 PM

View PostMaster, on 30 October 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

View Posttofuball, on 30 October 2013 - 01:12 PM, said:

Will he be getting enough minutes to be worth keeping around this season?

Why do you expect his minutes to go down? I assume they don't have many scorers

I thought Oladipo would cut into his playing time

#18 tofuball

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 07:53 PM

Good stuff!

#19 thetomkuczek

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 02:53 PM

How do you guys view him as a pickup short/long term? I think Oladipo will cut his minutes a lot in the future, correct?
H2H Points League

PG - Deron, MCW
SG - Wade, Stephenson, Beal, Thompson, Korver
SF - Melo, George, Parsons, Gay
PF - Ibaka, Ilyasova
C - Davis, Kaman

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#20 Rbra4176

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 03:11 PM

View Postthetomkuczek, on 02 November 2013 - 02:53 PM, said:

How do you guys view him as a pickup short/long term? I think Oladipo will cut his minutes a lot in the future, correct?
I just picked him up for at least the short term. Oladipo will definitely cut into his minutes eventually, but for now Afflalo is playing hard to keep his starting job so I see him being solid only for short term. Plus, the magic are showcasing Afflalo for trades.

Edited by Rbra4176, 02 November 2013 - 03:13 PM.





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