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Brent Celek 2013 Season Outlook


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#1 FantasyFiend

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 10:54 AM

It's reportedly "clear" that Brent Celek is "going to be a big part of the Eagles' passing game."
When Chip Kelly first came to town and started installing his offense, it looked like Celek would primarily be a blocker in a run-heavy offense. But throughout camp, the burly team leader has been involved in the passing game. During the third exhibition contest, he led the team in targets with seven en route to a 4/54/0 line. Celek's upside is capped by his lead-footed running and role as the in-line tight end, but we can't write him off the TE2 radar. He's going to be on the field a ton.


A good sleeper TE here especially for PPR purposes? Between him & Sudfeld I'm hoping I have 1 viable Tight End before Gronk returns...have a feeling Celek will be used a lot in a volume of catches for short yardage kind of way with a decent amount of red zone targets to boot given his wide-body target

#2 bt12483

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 11:33 AM

No one knows how Philly is gonna operate that offense this year.

So either buy in on potential and wait and see, or save that top waiver wire claim for whatever player emerges out of this offense.

Me...I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting. Maybe I miss out, maybe I don't. Wait and see.

Edited by bt12483, 28 August 2013 - 11:34 AM.


#3 OK_Guru14

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 11:38 AM

Nothing wrong with adding Celek to your bench if you have a spot.

#4 Kobe_No_Means_No

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 11:40 AM

Rotoworld is betting heavily on the Eagles this preseason, but I think you have to be cautious as Philly is really an unknown. Keep in mind Rotoworld pimped Vick pretty hard last season as well, and we all know what happened then. Another red flag is earlier in the season Jaws declared Chip Kelly's offense as not feasible to be effective at the pro level.

#5 bt12483

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 11:49 AM

Their defense looks horrible. I don't see how you can always rely on a run based offense like it is supposed to be if you get behind early and often. Maybe that bodes well for desean and celek and for mccoys receptions. Who knows. That is why I am staying away until I see how it unfolds.

#6 cutter311

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 12:55 PM

Hoping for the best outta Celek...I'm hoping the crazy upspeed chip keely offense keep the LB's running and outta breath. I think Celek could creep into the top 10 given the right circumstances...

The last 3 years, he's rec an average of 15% of the Eagles pass plays converting 61% of his tartets into receptions @ 12.4 ypr. I haven't looked into how Kelly uses his TE (but he's stated that Celek is going to be a part of the offense and on the field a lot), but lets say the Eagles get 75 plays per game out (1200 for the Season, the Pats had that same total last season).

I believe that it's reasonable to think that the Kelly offense will tilt slightly towards the passing game in the NFL, so lets say 650 passes and 550 runs and that Celek maintains his 15% of the targets.
That gives him appx 98 targets. (Here's where I fudge for the league seeing something new). But instead of his 61% target/reception conversion rate, I bumped it up top 65% ( a little higher than last years 64%, but lower than his career avg), so 65% of 98 targets is 65 receptions @ his 4 year avg per rec of 12.5...totalling 800 yds...throw in 6 TD's and you have yourself a top 10 TE (most likely).

I'm calling it now: Celek will have 65 rec // 800 yds // 6 TD

(yep...I own him...until Gronk comes back)
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QB: Wilson
RB: Jam, Ellington, Jennings, A. Williams, Vereen, Starks, Randle
WR: Jordy, Cooks, Torrey, CPoo84, Gordon*
TE: FotW
D: Seattle
K: Rookie from AZ

12-team / redraft / money league


#7 disasterisk

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 02:04 PM

I also have him rostered until Gronk returns. Looking at my league's free agent pool it was Celek or Myers. I think Celek will have a bigger role on his team so I went with him,

#8 Max Rockatansky

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 02:23 PM

He was horrible last year
Not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, not 6, not 7......

#9 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 08:08 PM

He was horrible last year

But he was fantastic two years ago. Case in point this is a new year and he has the talent to put up another 900 8 score year in the right offense. Chip Kelley's offense from early reports focuses on getting the TE the ball plenty and does not have the TE ever stay in to block on passing downs. If DeSean is not open for the deep ball then Celek is going to eat the middle up.

#10 Sine_cera

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 09:48 PM

He was horrible last year


Different coach, different offense, different year.

Just like Moreno I picked him up late in my drafts. If he doesn't pan out then back on waivers he goes.

Baseball and football are very different games. In a way, both of them are easy. Football is easy if you're crazy as hell. Baseball is easy if you've got patience. They'd both be easier for me if I were a little more crazy and a little more patient. ~ Bo Jackson


#11 mthdmn

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:11 PM

yup, i'm all in on Celek

this year's Heath Miller, baby! let's go! lol
Yahoo Standard H2H $$$ League (12 Teams)

C Devin Mesoraco
1B Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Adams
2B Neil Walker, Martin Prado, Arismendy Alcantara
3B Manny Machado,
Ryan Zimmerman
SS Starlin Castro
OF Giancarlo Stanton,
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SP Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmerman, Garrett Richards, Matt Cain, Dillon Gee, Danny Duffy, Dallas Keuchel
RP Aroldis Chapman, Steve Cishek, Mark Melancon, Hector Rondon, Dellin Betances

#12 AshesAndLaughter

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:21 PM

Vick threw for 2300 last year. Foles threw for 1700. That's 4000 yards. They are going to be more run-oriented this year. So Let's shave off 800 passing yards. 3200 yards is what were are looking at.

Vegas has Desean Jackson's over/under at 950; LeSean McCoy at 400. Let's assume they get 1600 together just to go over on both. There are still 1600 yards left. If they run a base formation with two WRs (Cooper being the other starting WR), my guess is that Celek is going to get a decent chunk of that 1600. Maybe it is "only" 700 yards. Maybe it's more. All I know is 700 yards would be top 10 last year. Guess who finishes #10 in receiving yards last year at TE...Yep, Brent Celek (684).

Only thing that was missing was TDs and consistent usage. Maclin, their solid 3rd down receiver, is out for the year. Please, please don't tell me Desean Jackson is going to morph into some possession receiver. Alternatively, Jason Avant could be in for a career year, doubt it.

I already called for a big "Ogletree-esque" week 1 from Celek, might as well jump in on the whole season. Haha.

12-team PPR; 1st in points (801.00); 1st in points against (777.9); 3-3...Fantasy Football can be so cruel.
4pt passing TDs
2 Flex Spots and no kicker:

QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB: Shane Vereen
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Demaryius Thomas
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Flex: Mike Wallace
TE: Jordan Cameron
Def: Patriots

Bench:

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#13 Deadpool

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:26 PM

You're not taking into account pace.

A Chip Kelly offense supposedly means they will run more plays/snaps than anyone this year.

Edited by Deadpool, 02 September 2013 - 10:26 PM.

12 Team Keeper, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Mark Ingram, Bryce Brown
WR: Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon
TE: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski

12 Team Redraft, 0.5 PPR, All TDs = 6 pts
QB: Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
RB: Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, Jeremy Hill
WR: Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Josh Gordon
TE: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

#14 Jason497

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:17 PM

I feel like Celek should be getting some of the same sleeper vibe Fred Davis is, and he really isn't for the most part.
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#15 Dr.Funktopus

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 02:21 PM

Can someone, presumable an Oregon fan, tell me if the TE was used a lot in the Ducks Offense with Chip Kelly?

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2013):
QB: Peyton Manning;
RBs: Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton (K)
TE: Vernon Davis; Flex: Kendall Wright
K: Blair Walsh; Def: St. Louis Rams
Bench: Jordan Reed, Riley Cooper, Steven Jackson
Michael Crabtree, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Todman

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2014):
QB: Aaron Rodgers;
RBs: Eddie Lacy (K), DeMarco Murray
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen (K), Mike Wallace
TE: Martellus Bennett; Flex: Rashad Jennings
K: Mason Crosby; Def: Detroit Lions

Bench: Steven Jackson, Zach Ertz, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Quick,
Andre Williams, Andre Holmes, Ben Roethlisberger, Malcolm Floyd


#16 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 02:32 PM

Can someone, presumable an Oregon fan, tell me if the TE was used a lot in the Ducks Offense with Chip Kelly?


How hard is it to google that yourself?

If you eliminate RBs, then 3 out of the 4 years, the TE position had the 2nd most receptions including Kelly's first year where Ed Dickson had about 20% of the receptions for Oregon. That said, the offense is going to have to be a bit different so it's not a straight line comparison.....
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#17 Dr.Funktopus

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 04:28 PM


Can someone, presumable an Oregon fan, tell me if the TE was used a lot in the Ducks Offense with Chip Kelly?


How hard is it to google that yourself?

If you eliminate RBs, then 3 out of the 4 years, the TE position had the 2nd most receptions including Kelly's first year where Ed Dickson had about 20% of the receptions for Oregon. That said, the offense is going to have to be a bit different so it's not a straight line comparison.....


My apologies. You are absolutely the last person on this forum I wanted to irritate...

I guess I was looking for something slightly qualitative, but you defintiely answered my question. Thank you

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2013):
QB: Peyton Manning;
RBs: Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton (K)
TE: Vernon Davis; Flex: Kendall Wright
K: Blair Walsh; Def: St. Louis Rams
Bench: Jordan Reed, Riley Cooper, Steven Jackson
Michael Crabtree, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Todman

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2014):
QB: Aaron Rodgers;
RBs: Eddie Lacy (K), DeMarco Murray
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen (K), Mike Wallace
TE: Martellus Bennett; Flex: Rashad Jennings
K: Mason Crosby; Def: Detroit Lions

Bench: Steven Jackson, Zach Ertz, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Quick,
Andre Williams, Andre Holmes, Ben Roethlisberger, Malcolm Floyd


#18 pbjfb

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 02:31 PM

It's reportedly "clear" that Brent Celek is "going to be a big part of the Eagles' passing game."
When Chip Kelly first came to town and started installing his offense, it looked like Celek would primarily be a blocker in a run-heavy offense. But throughout camp, the burly team leader has been involved in the passing game. During the third exhibition contest, he led the team in targets with seven en route to a 4/54/0 line. Celek's upside is capped by his lead-footed running and role as the in-line tight end, but we can't write him off the TE2 radar. He's going to be on the field a ton.


A good sleeper TE here especially for PPR purposes? Between him & Sudfeld I'm hoping I have 1 viable Tight End before Gronk returns...have a feeling Celek will be used a lot in a volume of catches for short yardage kind of way with a decent amount of red zone targets to boot given his wide-body target


who'd you rather have on a long term basis? Celek or Sudfeld?

#19 oswald737

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 03:05 PM

If the preseason is any indicator, Celek was on the field for like 79 of 83 plays with the first unit. He'll be used as a blocker a fair bit in what one would have to believe is a run-heavy attack, but assuming that Kelly maintains some elements of a high pace offense (which imo he clearly will), the shear volume of plays, Celek likely sees an increase in targets this season. Because of injuries, the Eagles had to keep Celek in last season for Pass Pro. This season, the Eagles offensive line is likely to be back to a top-10 unit, thus requiring less blocking.

As far as longterm value, it all depends on the progression of Ertz. While they are very likely to be on the field together more and more as the season goes on, Ertz is clearly the more dynamic pass-catcher and Celek the vastly more accomplished blocker.

#20 bt12483

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:27 PM

Anybody rolling with Celek week 1?

I have Gronk and obviously need a filler. Celek is playing WASH who were terrible vs. TEs last year, and plus the reports of Celek being featured in the passing game,

The matchup seems tempting.

Edited by Patrick Bateman, 04 September 2013 - 08:32 PM.
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